Nawaz Sharif: he shall rule

If the army wanted something from Nawaz, they probably had gotten it by now.

Every pundit commenting on the crisis in Islamabad has, at one point, made note of Nawaz Sharif’s stubbornness and his inability to learn from history. It is, then, unfortunate that many of these observers got blinded by glee at watching Nawaz’s government apparently floundering in this stalemate. Civilian supremacy has been put to question, they say. With all the noise this ‘script’ and its writer created, many believe that the dharna(s) was the perfect stage for a soft coup – a coup that has already taken place.

Not many paid attention to some truth in Nawaz’s words when only a few days later, we were led to believe that he was caught telling a lie.

In his address to the parliament on August 27, Nawaz alluded to conversations with Asif Ali Zardari and said both parties had a common vision on their commitment to democratic values. He said the PML-N had respected the mandate of the PPP, even though his party could have claimed that elections of 2008 were rigged. He then went on to say about the crisis that this too shall pass.

As he was speaking, one was reminded of the lunch date between the former president and the prime minister on August 23 — when Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri were already into the first week of the Azadi/Inquilab march. Surely, it was about what choices both parties had if the crisis was not resolved soon – for the PPP and the PML-N have the most to lose if one morning we all woke up in Naya Pakistan.

Evidence of the number of meetings between the leaderships of the two parties and the PPP’s willingness to participate in negotiations with protesters in Islamabad would suggest that Nawaz is getting at least one thing right: keeping the opposition on his side. Where Aitzaz Ahsan is grudgingly affirming his support for the government, Khursheed Shah is almost emotional about it. Samiul Haq and Maulana Fazlur Rehman have also expressed unequivocal support for the prime minister. And whenever Altaf Hussain starts to feel ignored, prompt conversations are held with the MQM as well. There were meetings with the MQM delegations on August 27. Earlier, a meeting was held on August 7. In his address to the parliament, the prime minister even mentioned that he had had “good” conversations with the MQM leaders. When clashes erupted between the police and protestors at D-Chowk, Ishaq Dar called the MQM leadership around 4 am when they expressed concern about the crisis.

Nawaz Sharif himself has been seen flitting in meetings with General Raheel Sharif, his cabinet and the opposition, getting promises from each of them about their commitment to civilian rule under his government. It is not easy to ensure people to stick to their institutional commitments in such a strange political climate.

Even Pakistan’s military, largely acknowledged as the script writer, stepped forward to clear its position: it was committed to its constitutional boundaries and that the deadlock must be resolved by politicians. This largely exposed the flaw in the ‘soft coup’ thesis. With Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri losing sanity and appeal every passing day and their revolutionaries desecrating state buildings, it was apparent this was no revolution. This was just an embarrassment. If the army wanted something from Nawaz, they probably would have gotten it by now. They then left it to the government to deal with the cricketer and the cleric as they see fit.

Even so, by Monday night, if there was ever any question of Nawaz’s resignation, it was pretty clear what the answer was going to be: that the prime minister would not be allowed to resign, returning our attention to where we should have been looking in the first place: the parliament. And the parliament has been so far unanimous.

How does a man, who everyone is betting against, manage to survive, even if he did not come out of it unscathed?

Knowing your enemy is one: Qadri is a figure everyone mistrusts. Imran, on the other hand, made his own enemies and that worked just as well for Nawaz. If there were those who did not want to get involved, Imran made sure they did. He then further cut himself when he decided to part ways with Javed Hashmi and demanded resignations no one is willing to give.

Knowing your position is another: the government could not afford to defy public opinion after the killings in Model Town. The tragedy was still fresh and the government knew that use of excessive force would be another reminder of how brutal the state can be. Clashes erupted as we knew they inevitably would and they weakened the government’s position further: three people died, and, in this age of breaking news politics, journalists were injured.

Weaker positions do not matter when one has a strategy; Saad Rafique was seen saving journalists from being attacked, vowing to complain of the incident to the prime minister. Amidst numerous condemnations, Chaudhry Nisar officially recognized the violence and apologised for it. The damage caused by the protestors and the thrashing they gave to the young SSP also served to polarise public opinion.

The strategy for dealing with the cleric and the cricketer was clear from the start: give them as much as you can. And if they don’t budge, wear them out. The government gave into five of six demands of Imran Khan so as not to appear unreasonable. They continued to engage in negotiations, just digging in their heels about things that were unacceptable from the start. When they finally got to the jirga, PAT and PTI were both exhausted of attention-seeking options and offered the same terms that had been on the table since the start. The fact that protestors have moved back D-Chowk is telling of the fact that they made no friends by moving ahead in the first place.

It has been over 20 days since the sit-in started. Imran’s junoonis and Qadri’s inquilabis are tired and broken. Their numbers are disputed, but it is widely acknowledged that they are dwindling. Even Nawaz took a moment to scoff at the sea of empty chairs.

Damage control is quickly becoming a habit of the PML-N government and it makes one uneasy at the thought of how much damage there is to control every day. But why else would Nisar take a step back from a face-off in the parliament? Even he knew that taking Aitzaz Ahsan's bait could only spell disaster.

I can’t claim to know if Nawaz Sharif will be able to rule without incident the next four years, having lost so much so quickly. But if nothing else, Nawaz ensured that rule he shall.

A shorter version of this article was published in The Express Tribune, September 10th, 2014.