The writer is a columnist. He is also a former editor of the Mumbai-based English newspaper Mid Day and the Gujarati paper Divya Bhaskar. His book, translating Saadat Hasan Manto’s non-fiction work, will be published this year
aakar.patel@tribune.com.pk
Is there a Modi wave and is this an election different from others? Or is the imminent thrashing of the ruling party the result of an anti-Congress vote? Positive or negative?
Yet another opinion poll, this time from NDTV, has shown dominance for the Narendra Modi-led BJP over the Congress.
Now, usually, we have fragmented general elections in India. This is why I ask if there is a Modi wave. Parties do well in some states and not in others. Local factors are very often and some might say, most often, the predictors for performance.
This is the reason the Congress might even sweep a state and be reduced to nothing in the one next to it.
This has happened more often than it has not. In the last four decades, the sweep of one party, meaning the Congress, has been experienced only exceptionally. The general rule has been that the main parties do not have a consistency in their performance across states.
In this election, there is a difference. If we track the large states in which the Bharatiya Janata Party has a presence, something striking is on display. Look at Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh. In none of these states is the Congress winning more seats than the BJP, according to the opinion polls. The one state in which the Congress did well only a few months ago, Karnataka, is also falling into the BJP’s hands in the Lok Sabha elections, according to more than one poll. Only one poll shows the Congress ahead there.
This can be construed in only one way: that there is something that has stirred in favour of Modi and against the Congress. It has, in the past, also been true at some points that the Congress has lost to the opposition in most if not all states, but this has generally been the case when the opposition parties have ganged up against it in one huge formation.
The election of 1977 was one such time and VP Singh’s grand coalition against Rajiv Gandhi in 1989 was another.
Even in such instances, the Congress has tended to retain its single-largest-party status and had a dominant presence in many of the states, especially in south India.
When the BJP took power under Atal Bihari Vajpayee and did so well for three elections, the Congress took a national thrashing only once, in 1999. But, even here, though it no longer had a lead over the big states against the BJP with a couple of exceptions (mainly Karnataka), it had a larger share of the total vote.
This time, if opinion poll results hold and the Congress-BJP positions are reversed, meaning 100 seats to the Congress and 200 to the BJP, it will be the first time that the Congress will have been outperformed by the BJP across India.
I think this is a sign that there is a positive vote in favour of Modi rather than a negative one against the Congress. Even in states where the Congress party is in a good position locally (once again: Karnataka) it is seen as surrendering the advantage in the national battle.
Modi is an exceptional asset for his party in that sense. His tireless campaigning — he has been on the road now for a year — shows the work ethic of a motivated politician who is focused on the prize.
His new call to the voter to give him 300 seats (something last achieved by Rajiv Gandhi 30 years ago) shows the confidence with which he is campaigning.
One must also accept that the BJP has produced a much sharper and far more entertaining advertising campaign than the Congress.
For Modi, 272 seats are no longer satisfying and he seeks dominance. It shows the difference between him and the totally defensive-minded Congress. The spirit seems to have gone out of the Gandhis, with Sonia less and less visible on the campaign trail. Their reluctance to face the media, which is fine when the party is in power, is now damaging them.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 6th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (23)
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Dipak@Motiwala: Now Modi will choose the US Ambassador to India.
I don't want a fascist modi over a secular rahul. Our secularism and plurality is more important than a modi whose party in complicit in the killing of our mahatma Gandhi. Congress will come again. Rab rakha
@Vishnu Reddy: Did you read the manifesto of the BJP.The building of the Ram mandir is part of their manifesto.With BJP in power India will follow religion dominated Pakistan,s line
Voting for the BJP. Time to vote out political parties that pander to communalism by pandering to minority vote banks under the guise of secularism like the Congress.
I would still vote for the congress. If Rahul Gandhi is prince then modi is Rss stooge. Raul speaks facts on television and modi just blabber like Hitler before his chancellory. I would request my fellow Indians to listen to modi speech and correlate it with facts on books and history. I will never support a party who was a killer of mahatma, our father who remains in a rupee note but not in some of my compatriots heart. Give rahul a chance. Rab rakha
@ModiFied: Once Modi comes to power he will have to prove himself.The time for half truths will be over.All he is doing now is giving speeches on development.How far has Gujarat developed since he has taken over.A lot of people are going to be disappointed once he takes over as we are going to see the same old story Go to this website and check the details.http://counterview.org/2014/04/02/vibrant-gujarat-mous-a-reality-check-based-on-official-data-suggests-that-gujarat-is-not-no-1-investment-destination.On the same page there is download from Prometheus Publications which analaysis the development of Gujarat during Modi tenure.After all if Modi wants to replicate the Gujarat model all over the country one should know if Gujarat development is fact or fiction
@sabi
don't worry about Gujrat just look at UP and you will know why people are putting their hope on Modi. UP once an industrial state has reached the bottom by electing SP and BSP which are supported by congress many time. If you look at states there is a clear difference between performance of BJP ruled state vs other states, so really it is not a difficult choice.
@Ali S "Majority of Hindus are conservative"
Very funny seriously. This is along the lines of peace loving Muslims refused to be 30% minorities. Agitated violently and accused Gandhi and Nehru of being Hindutvadis. And then the peaceful, non conservative, tolerant story of Muslims continues in Pakistan. You should have added the hilarious comment we hear from Pakistanis all the time that " unlike India religious parties don't win elections in Pakistan".
Let us see,..Modi aided and abetted in the Muslim Massacre in Gujrat.....2000 Muslim slaughtered. By conservative estimates. While Modi waited and waited and waited,..and did nothing. Latest court findings : Modi "exonerated"
I,m an outsider in India's politics have some observations; Gujarat is being presented as BJP success story reality is it's not the vision but because of its geo strategic location and very vibrant business community which would have been as much progressive under any government as under Modi.Would Modi be able to generate such conditions in other states?. Second,Congress on back foots can also be a well planed strategy to 'expose' BJP's economic vision.Five years is the cost for the exposure ! What do you say comrades.
Whatever the final outcome of the elections maybe one thing is crystal clear that this nehru gandhi khandaan will face a thrashing and humiliating defeat. If Iam not wrong the lutyens circle of Delhi and South Mumbai virtually resembles a ghost town these days as most of the sycophants have deserted the sinking ship while the optimistic ones who still live in a fools paradise that a last minute miracle can save the ruling party.
Modi is good news for conservative Hindus (a fair majority of India, you could say) and business tycoons. Not so much for Muslims and anyone with a more progressive, pluralistic ideal of society (like this author, I suppose). I'm sure he has what it takes to push India's already burgeoning economy through the roof, but it will come at a social cost.
@Motiwala: I don't think Modi or the BJP has said that they will teach Pakistan a lesson or attack China. The general feeling is that the ineptness of the Congress has led to the adventurism on our borders, and this may not fly with a BJP govt, although I am sure that pressures of realpolitik will ensure a mature response. There is no evidence that women are afraid of him - the latest survey shows that women are more likely to vote for him than for the Congress Prince Charming. Relations with Europe are back on even keel and the US sent their ambassador to meet Modi well before the campaign began - Nancy Powell would actually have to deal less with Modi (and more with the External Affairs Minister) if the BJP comes to power, so even that argument is nonsense.
If a government does not deliver, we should not be surprised that the opposition wins. That is what is happening in India, if the polls are any indication. On the other hand, Congress has not become more aggressive to catch the rightwing vote. That is a positive signal. We saw in Pakistan last year where major parties tried to woo the Taliban sympathizers and those who did not, lost. PPP was the major loser, although it is still more liberal than other parties. But I have faith in democracy, if Modi wins this time around, Congress can rebound next time around. Hopefully with new leadership.
In most prepoll election surveys I have seen there has always been a significant chunk who have not yet decided whom to vote for. Very often these undecided voters are over 20% of the electorate. The critical task in communication is how to target these fence sitters, more so when the difference between winning and losing margin could be just 1% or 2%. If there is an effective last mile campaign which can convert this undecided vote we get a sweep. This is akin to a wave or tsunami. While the BJP may be well short of a majority in surveys a last minute wave like described above can carry it to Power. Whether it can happen is a million dollar question.
wave or no wave Modi is the only choice India is left with.the best equation will be that Modi gets a clear majority while the Congress is relegated to a third place ditto as in Delhi,vacating the main opposition's seat for AAP. since 70s there has been a tendency among electorate to give a chance at least once in a decade to non -Congress parties,after being fed up with the grand old party.1977,1989,1996,1999 were a few instances.what went wrong was that these non- Congress governments squandered the opportunity presented to them and compelled India to go back to square one.one of the reason for failure of this experiment was that these govt never came to power fully on their own except 1977,and required the crutches to sustain.Modi's track record shows that he is a relentless worker.his age -defying marathon poll-campaign encompassing whole India just shows his vigor.His tireless work in Gujarat has made Congress almost extinct in the state.now if he can perform even half of how he has done in Gujarat Congress can bid goodbye to power for at least a decade or two.
The US Ambassador was removed because she seriously misread the changing winds. As a result, the US was late in opening communication channels with Modi. The Brits and EU were months ahead in that regard.
As far as China is concerned, Modi is an admirer and student of the far eastern countries (China, Japan, Korea) and has been there on visits. His approach may be muscular where borders are concerned but it is also pragmatic and progressive. I fully expect India's relations with China will improve rather dramatically. Relations with Korea and particularly with Japan are already very good.
As the leader of an important country, he will travel wherever he desires whenever he so chooses.
Modi is the need of hour and most Indians know it. Other than Modi there is no leader who can lead India under present domestic and international conditions.
Modi will win. Because he has all of Bharat riled up. Like the old equation. So famously used before. If you are not with Modi,..you are against Bharat This is the man who said he will teach Pakistan a lesson. And will be "muscular" with China. Women are afraid of him. Same man who cannot get a visa for all of Europe,...and US ...and Canada. The US ambassador resigned rather than have anything to do with Modi.
If the polls are correct and Congress ends up with fewer than a 100 seats then look for a major revolt within Congress that will irrevocably diminish the party both in size and stature. Sonia and Rahul's political career will be over and the Gandhi name will be relegated to a bygone era. Modi victory will bring the issue of economic development and good governance to the front and center for many elections to come.
Congress really thought if the GDP growth comes down from 9% to under 5%, no one will notice. Well people do notice when they are and when they are not better off. Congress really blew it this time. Its time they go and find a new leader coz the crown prince doesn't have the stomach for it.
It looks likes this author has become tired and bored being in the losing camp. So he is changing his tunes and started writing some truthful column like this one.
Modi needs to speak of numbers greater than 272 to inch towards a position where he may be dependent on 1-2 additional allies (preferably only the AIADMK) for stability; he also seeks to attract the fence-sitting voter with the goal of a stable government that can deliver economic growth. Other than that, I am sure that there are plenty of very smart well-educated people who are working tirelessly to apprise the BJP leadership of their likely tally broken down into seats, which will certainly not cross 220 seats (and NDA max around 240 - 255). However, the very fact that the NDTV survey predicts that the third/ federal front seats are likely to remain at 2009 levels indicates that the entire anti-Congress sentiment has been captured by the BJP, which is an admirable feat considering their far smaller national footprint. Call it a wave if you will, but there is something more than anti-incumbency at work here.