NCA’s ‘full spectrum’ response

NCA's message could be that despite growing asymmetry, India's PAO doctrine, there is no space for military conflict.

The National Command Authority’s (NCA) reaffirmation about the ‘centrality’ of a nuclear programme for Pakistan’s defence needs in a statement released after a meeting held in September underscores the increasing salience of nuclear weapons in the national strategic thought process — affected mainly by the Indian conventional military and nuclear developments. India’s new ‘war fighting’ doctrine and massive increase in its defence spending, i.e., over $43 billion against Pakistan’s little over $6 billion, may have compelled Pakistan to increase its reliance on nuclear deterrence — to counter the full spectrum of threat being perceived by the Pakistani decision-makers.

India’s defence spending may be guided by its own threat perception, but whatever India ‘does’ or ‘does not’ do — has serious bearing on Pakistan’s security perception, which is further exacerbated by the level of mistrust between the two neighbours. Pakistan, therefore, finds it appropriate that instead of engaging in a prohibitive arms competition with India, it should de-hyphenate its conventional equation vis-a-vis India and increase its reliance on nuclear deterrence.

The NCA in September reiterated that as a responsible nuclear weapon state, Pakistan would continue to maintain the policy of Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD), without entering into an arms race with any other country. The ‘minimum’, however, has not been quantified and is a not a static concept. Statements made by senior Pakistani decision-makers on several occasions indicate that Pakistan’s ‘minimum’ posture would mainly be guided by the developments at the regional level that could affect Pakistan’s security perception.

The NCA, in its declaration, also endorsed the concept of ‘full spectrum deterrence’, which apparently is aimed at maintaining appropriate response options to cater for various contingencies. The ‘full spectrum’ is not a ‘quantitative’ idiom, but a ‘qualitative’ response to new war fighting concepts of ‘Cold Start’ and Pro Active Operations (PAO), introduced by India. Full spectrum offers a range of options to the decision-makers.

The range of options developed by Pakistan is mainly intended to enhance the credibility of its nuclear deterrence. In sum, the intended message by the NCA could be that despite growing asymmetry and the introduction of PAO doctrine by India, there is no space for a military conflict. It has also been emphasised on several occasions by the Pakistani officials that ‘full spectrum deterrence’ is not a war fighting doctrine, but essentially, a war prevention strategy. Nuclear weapons would remain an instrument of deterrence.

The nuclearisation of South Asia has made war an unthinkable option. In the presence of nuclear weapons, military victory has become impossible; political victory, however, would depend on the threat of war (deterrence). As long as there is no sincere progress towards the resolution of major outstanding disputes, nuclear weapons would continue to play the central role in Pakistan’s strategic calculus to deny India military as well as political victory.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 7^th, 2013.

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