The writer is the Chairperson of the Department of History, Forman Christian College and tweets @BangashYK
Historically, by-elections are a gauge by which the popularity of the incumbent government is measured. Even though such democratic norms have still to be instilled in Pakistan, these by-elections are significant for a few reasons. First, they confirmed the political changes coming in Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa (K-P). It is the only province, which has shown strong anti-incumbency voting in the last few general elections. It elected the MMA government in 2002 but voted it out in 2008 when it voted the ANP in. Then in 2013, the province routed the ANP and voted in the PTI. In the by-elections last week, however, the PTI lost the NA-1 seat won by Imran Khan in May to the ANP’s Ghulam Bilour. This tells us that the people of K-P will vote any government out which does not deliver. Such was the fate of the MMA and the ANP and now looms on the horizon for the PTI. This defeat is significant for the PTI as it is the first public verdict on its performance in the province. Even the low voter turnout shows that the PTI, which long claimed that it had brought the non-voting masses to the ballot box, failed to even bring a third of the electorate to the polling booth in the by-election. The PTI should also see this defeat as an assessment of its policies, especially concerning the Taliban, in the province. This loss, coupled with the defeat in the Mianwali by-election, should make the PTI pause and think. It has arrived on the political scene but still needs to learn how to respond to the electorate.
Secondly, these by-elections showed the PML-N’s continuing popularity. It won thumping majorities in almost all the seats it vacated, but the close margins and its loss in Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur and Okara should keep it on its toes. The people have reposed trust in the party, but the voters are closely watching its performance and if it does not deliver, it will certainly lose such strong support. The same is the case with the MQM. It remains popular in Karachi but the PTI’s presence is increasingly becoming a strong alternative to the hitherto unchallenged MQM.
Thirdly, these by-elections showed that the PPP is not a dead party. It won seats in Muzzafargarh and Sanghar, where in the latter it dislodged the PML-F after a long time. This showed that the PPP still has appeal and that its power to motivate voters is still present. The PPP’s strong ideological base, with its intrinsic revolutionary message, might have suffered a blow in the previous government, but is still a force and might just resurrect itself. It will be quite interesting to follow the PPP’s development as it reforms and re-emerges in the next few years.
The almost peaceful passing of the by-elections and the excitement it generated in a few constituencies (especially where the turnout was over 50 per cemt) is a good omen for Pakistan. Rather than squabbling over whether the elections were rigged or not (and I am sure there were some discrepancies), we should focus on what these by-elections tell us in terms of the choices the voters — our ultimate masters — are making and what they mean for those in government. Democracy is a process where the voters’ voices need to be central and Pakistan has just embarked on this journey. Let us hope that we are not derailed this time.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 27th, 2013.
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COMMENTS (7)
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NA1 was lost by PTI because of the splinter group and I will call it a spoiler. Al Gore lost the Presidency to Bush because of a spoiler and in his case it was Ralph Nader. Since Al Gore was Vice President for 8 years therefore people were looking for an alternative, I my self voted for Ralph Nader .In the case of PTI, they have been there in K-P for a short time and you or any one else can't really pass a judgment on their performance. However I do agree with you that PTI will be replaced if they don't perform according to the wishes of the people but we should wait for at least a year to judge their performance. As far as the PML-N is concerned, the past is the indicative of future. What is happening in Lahore now is the prelude to their past performance, how could I forget their heavy handedness in the past and it seems they are doing it again, I just hope they don't attack the Supreme Court of Pakistan again.
i disagree...na-1 loss had nothing to do with performance. If pti lost na-1 they have retained all their other seats in kp plus have almost added another seat na-27. Pti seems to be favourite on na-25 seat as well. Pti has won na-48 so does that mean people of federal capital disapprove pml n. If we are to compare the results of bi-elections with general elections in punjab vote difference between pml n and pti has shrunk. In general elections pp-150 pti lost by 18,000 votes but it bi-elections the difference was a few hundred. Even that result has been challenged.
For a country like Pakistan, we cannot afford the cost of bye- elections & controversies therein & suggest all candidates must file their candidature for only one constituency from where he is confident of winning...why from different constituencies ? which is not possible for any one person to serve at one time anyway...he wins or looses is his luck based on his serving that constituency..period..
This is a balanced and scholarly Op Ed by ET, thanks for that. I agree with the writer about the party positions in the by-elections. The failure of the rightwing parties and the disappointment of voters with the ruling parties is already showing in these results. In particular there has been no practical step let alone progress against terrorism and militancy at all and there is no immediate hope on the horizon. Both ANP and PPP have been targets of fanatic terrorists and there is no choice for secular and democratic forces but to vote these parties. These parties may have diluted their ideologies but there are no viable options and they gain secular and democratic votes by default. Their long struggles and history of sacrifices may be dismissed by elites but cannot be erased from the memories of poor masses living in the rural heartland of Pakistan.
Really? How could you judge their performance in 2 months? For God's sake, write something sane.
Yes the defeat in NA-1 is a 'strong message' to PTI ....but what about its lead by a margin of 7K in NA-27? if PTI wins it...will it show that KPK approves of PTI government? what about its strong showings in PK-23 & PK-70? and y is PMLN losses in two Punjab Assembly seats NOT a sign of ppl's disapproval? media bias at its best !
PTI lost NA1, solely because of their own infighting. Otherwise despite everything the difference between an alleged Afghani and 5 time past winner Bilour was only 6000 odd votes in Bilours favor. Never the less, they have retained NA 13, and most prob NA 5 and taken NA 27...which shows that PTI is still strong in KPK . . On the other hand PTI should be more concerned about its loss in NA 71, where losing to PML N means, and IK blaming the DQ of Ayla Malik as the reason shows that PTI does not have enough ground support to ensure that the party ticket, and not the candidate wins. . . Similarly in NA 254, PTI got only 4000 odd votes compared too MQMs several 1000. Just 2 months back PTI had gotten a whole lot of vote from Karachi, but this time no one cared. It shows that the leadership of PTI should focus its attention on winning in Karachi, otherwise next time around they will lose NA 250 also.