Supporting any peace process in Afghanistan under US auspices will challenge Pakistan’s security, sovereignty.
ISLAMABAD: The establishment of the Afghan Taliban’s Qatar office was officially met with jubilation in Pakistan. The mantra is that direct peace negotiations between the Afghan Taliban and the US will lead to peace and stability in the region following US withdrawal in 2014. With uncertainty prevailing in the Qatar process, there is a need in Pakistan to understand the overall strategic picture before jumping to unrealistic conclusions about peace and stability.
First, peace and stability in the region, particularly in Pakistan, are directly linked to US presence in Afghanistan. As long as this presence remains, peace will remain an illusion. Second, the US will undergo a partial or limited withdrawal from Afghanistan and not a complete one. The thinking within Washington is to retain nine military bases along with 15,000 to 20,000 US troops in Afghanistan.
Third, the US is in a process of “negotiating” a bilateral security arrangement with the puppet Karzai regime that will replace the existing Strategic Partnership Agreement and institutionalise US presence for the next decade. The US is using these negotiations with the Taliban to achieve its post-2014 strategic reconfiguration, along with a pliant political dispensation in Kabul.
For Pakistan, the implications are clear: the US will be able to carry out military operations inside Pakistan should it choose to do so, and this will pose a challenge for Pakistan’s overall regional position.
The Abbottabad Commission report is apt in its conclusion: the US, through its intentions and actions, has demonstrated that it represents a national security threat on Pakistan’s western frontiers, rather than an ally. Supporting any peace process in Afghanistan under US auspices will challenge Pakistan’s security, sovereignty and the region at large.
Majid Mahmood
Published in The Express Tribune, July 17th, 2013.
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