The coup-maker returns

The PML-N will be tested by the Mush-factor more than any other party.

The possible arrival of General (retd) Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan next week is unlikely to be bombshell category news. Yes, there will be media hype and interviews galore; there will also be international coverage of his return journey and his gung-ho sound bites will resound a while. But in the end, this will all die down, as all temporary media bubbles must. Still, the Mush-factor in national politics is important, not because of impact — which will be negligible — but because he would bring back with him ghosts of the past to confront institutions, political parties and the media with tough choices, forcing them to take positions on critical issues connected with the general’s rule that many of them have been avoiding for years.

The army high command has already tried to convince the retired general to stay out of Pakistan. Ironically, the reason for rendering this advice is the same as the one Musharraf once gave to the late Benazir Bhutto: we cannot guarantee the security to your life and limb. These efforts to keep the former army chief away from the flight he wants to take on March 24 are still afoot. The retired general has used Saudi Arabia and UAE influence to strengthen his case for returning home. Not just that, his wish list also includes guarantees that he won’t be arrested upon arrival and that he will be allowed to participate in the elections. To pre-empt the possibility of arrest, pre-arrest warrants are being sought.

In case he comes back home and has an easy, trouble-free passage to the areas secured by his political supporters in Karachi, General Musharraf would pose an incredibly complex challenge to the army, whose present head, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, has become famous for attempting to detach the institution from the crippling and controversial legacy of his predecessor. If General Musharraf meets the fate that Benazir Bhutto did on that terrible day of terror six years ago, the onus of not being able to protect the former head of the army would fall on the shoulders of the present leadership. If he survives and continues to pursue his political ambition as a normal politician, it would be next to impossible to counter the impression that he has the blessing of the army. Both outcomes bring the army back into the realm of political controversy. Dead or alive, Musharraf would be a thorn in the side of the top brass.

Matters would get further complicated when the judiciary would take up the case of a man who once bullied the judges and tried to discard them in the true tradition of dictators. In a classic case of history turning tables, the institution that Musharraf tried to enslave now has the key to his liberty and future life. Rumours are doing the rounds that the “foreign factor” has already got assurances from the judiciary that they would be lenient towards him. These rumours are insulting and fly in the face of the image and perception the honourable judges have built over the years, of being completely independent. But these would only be killed by action. How a two-time coup-maker and destroyer of the Constitution is dealt with by the judges would be the litmus test of their independence. Courts that have summoned two elected prime ministers — disqualifying one of them, advised the president to behave constitutionally or else, taken on the mighty bureaucracy, ruled on the constitutionality of provincial governments, etc. will now be keenly watched for their approach towards Musharraf.

Politically, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) will be tested by the Mush-factor more than any other party. Nawaz Sharif has practically made a career out of speaking about his ouster from power by General Musharraf and his subsequent exile. He has been fervent about enforcing Article 6 (sedition) of the Constitution so that future coup-makers are kept on a tight leash. With General Musharraf’s return to Pakistan, the stance that the PML-N takes will determine how true or false their interest in seeing General Musharraf getting punished is.

And finally, the media’s conduct, too, would come under detailed scrutiny. General Musharraf’s entourage already includes a few from his charmed circle. Others will make a beeline once he is in town. What editorial line media and publication houses take on Pakistan’s last surviving dictator, who supports him and who calls for his accountability will be a fascinating study in the media’s relationship with ethnic and political groups, besides the influence of money on editorial choices that individuals and groups exercise.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 22^nd, 2013.