Defence Minister Ahmad Mukhtar has stated in his usually blunt style that if Pakistan did not come up with a clear position on the resumption of the Nato supply route, it might face sanctions under the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution to which Pakistan agreed. He must have been anxious about the time it was taking his government to finalise its position for the next round of diplomatic negotiations with the US on the supply route that was closed sixth months ago. Needless to say, the Americans are keen to come to some kind of agreement with Islamabad but are repeatedly told that the Pakistani position is not ready yet.
Of course, sanctions are not yet on the cards but if imposed, they will be tough for Pakistan given the fact that its economy is in an oxygen tent and the oxygen comes mostly from the US and its allies. Universal sanctions are disastrous for any country, but they require all permanent members of the UNSC to agree to them. Partial sanctions initiated by a single country — in this case the US — are less dangerous but they can still put Pakistan under a lot of pressure. Take the example of Iran: the sanctions imposed on it are partial because China, India and Russia do not go along with them; nonetheless, Iran is under pressure because the allies of the US are willing to back them.
Pakistan, of course, will be backed by China and no universal sanctions will be imposed — at least not yet. But even unilateral sanctions imposed by the US will damage Pakistan more than they could Iran. Pakistan is dependent on direct assistance from the US and on aid from multinational institutions in shape of concessional loans. These can be foreclosed and repayments made stringent. Sanctions are bad for any country because they signal the extent to which the country has been isolated from the international community. Isolation again is a relative term: Iran can afford it because its economy is up to 90 per cent dependent on oil exports for its revenue, which the world must buy. Pakistan cannot afford isolation; its liabilities are so big that China cannot bankroll them even if it wanted to.
Mr Mukhtar was referring to the UNSC resolution 1386 (2001), which called upon “Member states to contribute personnel, equipment and other resources to the Force and authorised those states participating in it to take all necessary measures to fulfil its mandate”. Pakistan has been in defiance mode since November 2011 when the Salala incident took place, but the causes for umbrage were a bit older, which included the killing of Osama bin Laden in May 2011 and the even earlier incident of a CIA contractor killing two Pakistanis in Lahore. The government subsequently decided to throw its foreign policy to parliament, which had already passed impractical strictures on the US.
The parliamentary committee in charge of laying down principles for the conduct of Pakistan’s foreign policy promulgated the new regime of rules of engagement in March but after endorsing them, parliament splintered internally over its implementation. The rules were loaded with the kind of red tape measures that would make the execution of any agreement over the supply route almost impossible. Highly emotive in content that was reflective of concerns of the military, the new regime asked for a formal apology from the US over the Salala incident and a nuclear deal comparable to the one signed by the US with India.
The result is a stalemate. Writing in this newspaper, senior diplomat Tariq Fatemi stated that stalemate was not an option for Pakistan: “Not only did the process [in parliament] proceed at a desultory pace, the government did nothing to restrain those who sought to whip up popular passions in the guise of national honour and dignity. In the process, the government may have scored a few brownie points, but today finds itself in the straitjacket imposed by the parliamentary resolution”. Pakistan’s folly is that it has tied foreign policy to public passions and is now hamstrung to employ flexible diplomacy where needed.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 8th, 2012.
COMMENTS (9)
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Not only the article, but the comments say it all. Shahid Javed Burki mentioned in an article of his that the aid that the US gives to Pk has very little effect on the economy. Primarily it goes to buy out these cheap politicians that we have, and to buy their complicity in their treachery. See below: 'After a study he conducted for the Woodrow Wilson Centre, Shahid Javed Burki said: “If US civilian assistance is completely withdrawn, it will only have an impact of 0.14 percent on Pakistan’s GDP growth.” Calculations were based on gross aid, 40 percent of which goes to American ‘consultants’. These are conservative estimates compared with how US aid is being spent in Iraq and Afghanistan, where more than 60 percent of the money remains with American ‘contractors’ and ‘consultants’.' If you do not believe me, search for the terms above in google and check the articles yourself.
@Baby Ka Husband
Your comment about Karzai running away or taken prisoner by the Afghan nationalists is hilarious. You are calling the Taliban Afghan nationalists? Obviously you know nothing about Afghanistan or its people, if you did you would know that the Taliban are stooges not nationalists. The real nationalists of Afghanistan are the Northern Alliance and Hamid Karzai.
ET ! a very strange comment, "Pakistan’s folly is that it has tied foreign policy to public passions and is now hamstrung to employ flexible diplomacy where needed". Can any democratic government survive without public passion and that also so close to general elections, More over, only military regimes like Musharaf could tie us in unwritten bindings with US. The act pulled by US Secretary of state mrs clinton in india against Pakistan is evident of the taken granted status US has given to Pakistan. We are in Oxygen tent but due to our geo political importance many Oxygen providers are there in market. Gentlemen like Mr Fatmi are the product of the era when Pakistan had very limited options against India and was bonded to US. Let's try to make a good bargain for NATO supply routes and Salala Incident so these should not happen again.
I didn't knew US has a defense minister.
"The government subsequently decided to throw its foreign policy to parliament, which had already passed impractical strictures on the US." ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ The Pakistani Parliament should insist on negotiations with the US Senate.!
At a minimum the USA can stop all aid to Pakistan - stop all trade to Pakistan (there still your largest export market) - stop giving or selling you weapons - stop the World Bank and IMF from giving you loans, and make it difficult or impossible for expatriates to remit funds to Pakistan. They really don't need to go to the UN for sanctions to isolate and push Pakistan into an economic abyss. Pakistan has painted itself into a corner and I doubt there is any graceful way out - what started out as an exercise to make America grovel has backfired.
ET we disagree with you. The resolution you quote did not authorize US\NATO to start drone attacks that have killed over 1000 innocent civilians, nor infest Pakistan with CIA agents to kill people on its streets, nor hold CSF payments hostage, nor undermine our security interests in Afghanistan. They have changed the terms of agreement they had agreed wiith Musharraf under which all cooperation was extended. So let's not be economical with the truth for once. No one is going to place sanctions on Pakistan, not the SC. Before the next winter is here the Agreement of the Night signed recently is going to unravel; US\NATO will depart post-haste (France has already announced) and Karzai will either run away or become a prisoner of the Afghan nationalists. It was always US intention to shaft Pakistan. Good part is we will meet them half way this time says Baby.
The supply question is over.
Public sentiment must be followed.
Air logistics ought to be shut too!
This should be the discussion.
Supporting an evil war on the region has had severe reprecussions for Pakistan
It is against Islam and humanity to support these wars that result in mass civilian deaths.
Time for Pakistan has come. Good nations will stand by it, and independence will be achieved.
Pakistan as a nation depends on the crumbs thrown by Americans mostly. Still has the audacity to ask for the moon. Clean up the house, get rid of the terrorists you are nurturing who are killing your own citizen and beheading your soldiers. Give education and basic needs to the people instead of multiplying war machinery. Given the situation no wonder Pak army is agreeing for trade with India.