The Istanbul conference: Washington’s vision for the region

Published: October 28, 2011

Pakistan is now left with the choice of either aligning themselves more closely with China, or preferring to work with the New Silk Roads

ISLAMABAD: 

As key world and regional players gear up to meet in Istanbul to push forward a Washington-backed regional integration plan for an ‘economically stable Afghanistan’, Pakistan stands at a crossroads. The question Islamabad is grappling with is whether it’s time to become a partner, or whether it should maintain its historical position – keep India away from resource-rich Central Asia.

As part of a broader economic integration strategy, Washington is selling the “New Silk Roads” concept- a network of roads and rails to connect Far East Asia and South Asia with Central Asia and then the West.

Leaders from 12 nations are to meet in Istanbul on November 2 with the stated objective of persuading regional players to commit to a stable and independent Afghanistan and to discuss regional economic cooperation. Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Iran, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE, USA and United Kingdom are to attend.

Political pundits have termed the Istanbul Conference a prelude to the Bonn Conference, where delegations from 90 countries are expected to formulate a practical roadmap for 2014 – the year the US has said it will withdraw troops from Afghanistan.

Defence, economic and geostrategic experts say the broader objective of the strategy is to consolidate gains made in Afghanistan and strengthen the US grip on Central Asian resources to be used either by Americans or preferred partners like India. One of the objectives is to create hurdles in energy-hungry China’s bid to get unrestricted access to Central Asian resources, they add. Pakistan is now left with the choice of either aligning themselves more closely with China, or preferring to work with the New Silk Roads as the dichotomy grows stronger.

According to the United States Institute of Peace,  a Congress-funded think tank, there are hopes that the New Silk Roads concept of an integrated trade and transportation network through Afghanistan can bring regional players and interlocutors together and attract new sources of investment.

Long time coming

A senior government functionary said that the US has been working on the proposal for a longer time. He said that the reorganisation of the US State Department in 2004 when it merged its Central Asia and South Asia desks was an important step towards this direction.  Robin Raphael, former US ambassador to Pakistan on civilian assistance, has been assigned the New Silk Roads project.

Pakistan’s options

“Americans want to consolidate gains in Afghanistan whether Pakistan readily becomes partner to the new concept or not,” said Tanvir Ahmed Khan, former secretary of foreign affairs. On the other hand, Washington will be displeased if Pakistan refuses to give India access to Afghanistan, fearing the possibility of an alternative India-Iran nexus, envisaged by New Delhi as the “North silk route”.  Khan maintains that it would be in Pakistan’s interest to become partner in any regional arrangement, better sooner than later.

A senior official of the foreign office, however, took a cautious line on whether Islamabad would support the initiative. Without commenting on the New Silk Roads, the official said: “Regional connectivity is a centuries-old concept and Pakistan would appreciate any effort towards that objective”.

Another official said that Pakistan wanted a greater role in economic development of Afghanistan, and did not want caught in the uncomfortable position of being isolated while sandwiched between India and Afghanistan.

But for the US, he added, the New Silk Roads is an integral part of a three-pronged strategy designed to exit and integrate post-US Afghanistan with the rest of the region. Keeping this in mind, Pakistan will have to mend its ways and make up its mind in the next two years, he said.

Former foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi also spoke on the matter hesitantly, saying “Pakistan will have to see both the advantages and disadvantages of becoming a partner in the New Silk Roads concept,” he added.

Pros and cons

The obvious advantage is that regional economic integration would bring economic benefits – but then, there’s the issue of Indian involvement and New Delhi’s subsequent access to Central Asia, he added. Qureshi said that the Afghanistan Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement was signed on the condition of excluding India from the treaty.  However, Tanvir Khan said Pakistan will ultimately have to give India access. He was of the view that eventually, even China will have to be taken on board.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 28th, 2011.

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Reader Comments (3)

  • Cautious
    Oct 28, 2011 - 9:51AM

    Defence, economic and geostrategic
    experts say the broader objective of
    the strategy is to consolidate gains
    made in Afghanistan and strengthen the
    US grip on Central Asian resources to
    be used either by Americans or
    preferred partners like India.

    The only people saying that are Pakistani’s — not even the Chinese believe that nonsense.

    Recommend

  • Rajendra Kalkhande
    Oct 28, 2011 - 3:03PM

    If Pakistan keep denying transit rights to India, the major fall out is going to be river waters to Pakistan. If Pakistan can exploit geography, certainly India too can do the same. Like Pakistan, Indians are also getting more and more aggressive now.

    Recommend

  • naeem mahboob malik
    Nov 2, 2011 - 5:02AM

    Pakistan’s position will be more consolidated after US exit from Pakistan. US has not been able to get the desired objectives of the war on terror except curbing Al-Qaeda. The major players are Taliban and their co-ally Haqani net work representing the pashtun majority and arch resilient force to the USA. And it is like the sun light -a reality that Pakistan has great influence on Pro-Pakistan haqani net work and formerly recognized Taliban. US has lost the war and going as a defeated power not a victor who suggest the post-US Afghanistan stage by new silk road concept. Afghanistan is still insecure and unstable as ten year ago. Indians should not clamor over the ten year growth which was the concession of Pakistan on American behalf for shifting forces to western borders. India must have to solve Kashmir dispute otherwise difficult to maintain the momentum of her growth rate. Pakistan is a key player in Afghanistan and will continue her role vigorously. American and Indian must recognized the role.Recommend

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