Osama’s death a blow to al Qaeda

Osama was a symbol/icon for jihadis all over the world and his followers are likely to be demoralised by his death.

Efforts for capturing Osama bin Laden were initiated in 1998 and now, after almost 13 years, the US has finally been successful in killing the most wanted man in its history. The death is a serious blow to al Qaeda and the aim set by America immediately after 9/11, to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda, has been largely achieved.

Osama was a symbol and icon for jihadis all over the world and his followers are likely to be demoralised by his death. Ayman alZawahiri could take his place, but since he does not have the charisma and stature of Osama, groupings on an ethnic basis might emerge. US President Barack Obama will obviously be a very happy man since Osama’s death is likely to help him in his exit strategy from Afghanistan, as well as in the next US presidential election.

The CIA had established a special cell for getting bin Laden way back in 1995. An operation was planned using Pakistani soil, but had to be abandoned after the military took over on October 12, 1999. The US has always been insisting that Osama and other al Qaeda leaders were hiding in the border regions of Fata but no specific location was ever indicated. He was last spotted in November 2001 in the Afghan-Shinwari area. There had been reports about his presence in different parts, including Kashmir, Mansehra, Chitral, Sialkot and Waziristan and even Kunar province in Afghanistan, but all these turned out to be untrue.

In March 2003, then president Pervez Musharraf claimed that Osama was dead since he was a kidney patient and could not survive without dialysis. However, he changed his stance once Khalid Sheikh Mohammed was arrested and evidence showed up that Osama was indeed alive.

Now, with the passing on of Osama, jihadis all over the world may adopt the manifesto of Abu Musab alSuri, who rejected the idea of a structured jihadi organisation and advocated the formation of small independent terrorist cells spread over the entire world, without any central leader.

The death is also likely to affect terrorists/militants in Pakistan. Osama was a symbol of unity for the Pakistani Taliban and is believed to have played a role in the formation of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The TTP may now resort to violence, but that could mean them going for so-called ‘soft’ targets.

Reports that he was living in this compound for the last five years may not be true as he kept on moving and never stayed in one place for more than 15-20 days. Those who are saying that pressure on Pakistan may now increase may be missing the point that Pakistani agencies had also, since long, suspected that he may have been hiding in some inaccessible remote area of Fata.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 3^rd, 2011.