The Empire Strikes Back

On December 15 last year the outgoing Obama administration issued a notification sanctioning seven Pakistani entities for allegedly acting “contrary to the national security or foreign policy interests of the US”. Without specifying how these entities, related to Pakistani space and missile programme, endanger US interests, Washington has once again resorted to its worn-out policy of using the blunt instrument of sanctions to punish Pakistan. Since Pakistan’s missile programme is indigenous and because these are only national US and not international sanctions by the UN Security Council, their impact on Pakistan would be zero. The question, therefore, arises as to why the Obama administration has resorted to this tactic on the eve of its departure from office? The obvious answer is that this out of pique for Pakistan’s steadfast refusal to succumb to Washington’s pressure on our strategic programme driven by our security compulsions. The added motivation could also be to queer the pitch for Pakistan’s engagement on strategic issues with the incoming Trump administration.

The Foreign Office spokesperson termed this US decision as “intriguing” while another senior official said “this means nothing for us”. While this is true, the fact remains that this step is in line with the Obama administration’s policy towards Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programme. At every opportunity, the Americans have called for “restraint” and a “cap” by Pakistan on development of our nuclear weapons and missile delivery capabilities while failing to make any such demand for restraint by India. In view of American indifference to Pakistan’s security compulsions in response to the Indian nuclear, missile and conventional military buildup, their demands for unilateral restraint by Pakistan have naturally been rebuffed.

Such American discrimination against Pakistan is not new but goes back decades since the first Indian nuclear test in 1974 when India virtually got away unscathed but a slew of laws were adopted to prevent Pakistan from responding to this strategic threat to its security. There laws, the Glenn and Symington amendments, were then supplemented by the Pakistan specific Pressler amendment which was enforced in 1990 even though Pakistan had not acquired nuclear weapons at the time. Subsequently when India conducted its second set of nuclear tests in 1998, Pakistan was forced to respond to demonstrate the credibility of its deterrence. Still both the culprit and its victim were treated at par with sanctions that were waived only when the US needed Pakistan’s cooperation in its “war on terror” after September 11, 2001. Even so, when India was given a country specific exemption from nuclear safeguards so that it could engage in civilian nuclear commerce in 2008, in violation of the international non-proliferation regime as well as domestic US laws, the same treatment was denied to Pakistan. Even now, the Obama administration has expended vast political capital to enforce India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) while denying the same privilege for Pakistan. It is only due to the principled position taken by China, Turkey and several other States parties to the NSG that such nefarious designs have failed. In the context of missile development, the area in which Pakistan has now been targeted, the US has ensured a free pass for India by enabling its membership of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) despite New Delhi’s expanding and de-stabilizing missile developments such as the latest long-range Agni-V ballistic missile with a range of 5500 km.

The selective US approach to the Indian and Pakistani missile programmes also requires close scrutiny. Washington has strongly opposed Pakistan’s development of the short range Nasr missile and the long range Shaheen missile even though India has also acquired short range missiles such as the Prahaar and Pragati and developed an array of long range ballistic missiles in the Agni series. India is also working on sea-based platform launched long range missiles that can be deployed on surface ships and more dangerously on nuclear powered submarines that can be positioned deep into the Ocean and out of Pakistan’s range. Acquisition of such a second strike capability by India can drastically under-mine strategic stability in South Asia. Moreover, the Indian missile programme involves development of Anti-Ballistic Missile Defence System (BMDs) and Multiple Independently – Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs) that will qualitatively and quantitatively change the requirements for maintaining a credible deterrence by Pakistan. To make matters worse, the US itself is aiding this Indian missile development programme by its acts of omission and commission. For this reason, the US is directly or indirectly responsible for propelling a new round of the arms race between Pakistan and India.

For the US helping to enhance Indian strategic capabilities is part of its effort to use India as a counter-weight to contain China. But Indian capability can also be used against Pakistan. No wonder that the new Indian Army Chief has been boasting about developing India’s capability to fight on two fronts simultaneously – against China and Pakistan. While this may be more wishful thinking on India’s part since it is really a minor irritant for a world power like China, such Indian capabilities pose a real existential threat to Pakistan.

Pakistan’s efforts to make its case in Washington have so far fallen on deaf ears. American hubris cannot countenance Pakistan’s temerity to reject US demands for unilateral “restraint” or “cap”. Hence the resort to pressure through sanctions. The notification of our missile programme related entities is the latest example. This has been preceded by the virtual back tracking on sale of F-16 aircraft and the withholding of Coalition Support Funds (CSF) which is money that Pakistan has already spent on supporting American counter-terrorism efforts.

Whether the incoming Trump administration will continue this trend to sanction Pakistan further remains to be seen. But one thing is clear based on past experience – unilateral US sanctions lack teeth and as President Clinton famously said are “a blunt instrument”. Since the present global strategic environment does not favour international action against Pakistan, these and possible new US sanctions against Pakistan are unlikely to be effective. If anything, judging by past record, they may even have the unintended effect of actually helping Pakistan develop its own capabilities even further. The test on January 9 of Babur III, the nuclear capable submarine launched cruise missile which gives Pakistan a second – strike capability is, therefore, a befitting riposte to both India and its mentor the US.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 16^th, 2017.

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