The cup is half full

As the year comes to a close and a new year is about to dawn it is only logical that we take a hard look at where the nation stands and how it can move forward in 2017.

General Sharif’s great contribution was that he brought the insurgency under control. This was no ordinary achievement considering that Taliban and other foreign and domestic insurgents had complete control of North Waziristan and had strong pockets spread across the tribal agencies. Having succeeded in securing Fata, the military was able to stem the progression of terrorism. Consequently, the economic situation stabilised, but for attracting investment there has to be sustained peace and less bureaucratic hurdles. Predictions of pundits that Pakistan’s integrity was at stake thankfully never materialised and there is relatively greater confidence about the future.

This confidence is also reinforced by the Chinese government’s major economic engagement with Pakistan in the CPEC project. The CPEC could be truly a game changer if Pakistan were to faithfully implement its side of commitment. It should open up whole new vistas of economic opportunities for all the provinces provided they are able to develop compatible physical and human infrastructure. Failure to do so would undermine the project and harm our relations with China. The project would integrate our economy with China giving it a strategic dimension thereby providing greater confidence in dealing with India and external powers.

Security of the CPEC project and that of Balochistan as a whole would remain a major challenge for our armed forces for the next few years. But as economic conditions improve insurgency in Balochistan is likely to fade. Key to the future prospects of Balochistan, Fata and relatively less developed areas depends on the government’s capacity to focus on their economic and political development. Involvement of local population and giving them a sense of ownership in economic opportunities will be central to erase their genuine or perceived grievances. Interestingly, there is a greater realisation both among civil and military leadership that unless the country as a whole develops it will always remain in crisis. Gains made in Punjab will be frittered away on strengthening security in other parts of Pakistan.

Relations with India remained volatile as the Kashmir situation took a turn for the worse and in their vilest phase since any time in 2002. There was a not a day when both sides were not trading fire across the LoC. India continues to accuse Pakistan of supporting militant organisations that are engaged in terrorist activity against it.

Future of India-Pakistan relations would primarily hinge on Modi’s policy. The prognosis is that the situation is unlikely to change unless India engages and mellows down its hostile posture. While Pakistan on its side will have to control the militant organisations like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish–e-Mohammad not only to satisfy New Delhi but in its own national interest. For Pakistan the priority would remain engagement on all issues, especially Kashmir. The border, however, has been relatively peaceful since General Bajwa assumed office. This may be more of signalling from New Delhi that we are willing to reset the level of hostility, or even move towards normalisation, provided it is reciprocated by controlling India-specific militants. PM Modi’s facilitation on Nawaz Sharif’s birthday seems to reinforce that presumption. But there is such a high level of unpredictability in this relationship that it is hard to arrive at any rational conclusion.

At the domestic level, future of political parties is linked to how they are able to reform themselves and are responsive to expectations of the electorate. Despite 70 years of independence most of them continue to pursue politics of patronage. This has thwarted national growth and led to competing and conflicting institutional and personal interests. Absence of strong institutions and poor accountability has given rise to widespread corruption. The National Accountability Bureau has not fully evolved to come up to the expectations of the people and it will be in the national interest if it is restructured to genuinely act as a bulwark against corruption. It has to be given a fully autonomous status and depoliticised. India has succeeded in establishing a highly credible oversight organisation. A somewhat similar setup for Pakistan is needed.

Because of inefficiencies, poor governance and a history of imbalance between civil–military relations the institutions are not working within their defined boundaries. For consolidation of democracy a lot will depend on how the civil-military balance is restored and institutions function within the framework of their constitutional parameters in the years ahead. Essentially, it would rest on the civilian leadership to win back confidence of the people through improved performance. Clearly, the PML-N government has been an improvement on its predecessor PPP, but falls short on accountability, strengthening of institutions and certain critical aspects of governance.

Imran Khan’s relentless drive for accountability was a huge plus for the nation. The government remained under severe pressure from the PTI as it built pressure on Nawaz Sharif to resign on the basis of his involvement in the Panama leaks. It has made the people more aware of this national malaise and would act as a deterrent for corrupt politicians and government functionaries. But where Imran Khan was found lacking that he failed to recognise the important role of a strong parliament and judiciary in reducing corruption. Hopefully, the PTI would focus more on parliament and less on streets in 2017.

Although we are an Islamic Republic, but shamefully rank amongst the most corrupt nations and our rich and powerful take pride in flouting the law of the land and refuse to pay taxes. The boundless greed of the powerful and rich is eroding the faith of the common citizen. The politically ambitious religious parties that are prepared to coexist with extremist organisations for leveraging their power also threaten us. In essence, we need to revive values that inspired the creation of Pakistan and reduce the gap between Jinnah’s vision and today’s reality.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 28^th, 2016.

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