Panama leaks and the way forward

The political crisis caused by the Panama leaks has intensified. The refusal of the chief justice to set up an investigation commission on the expanded terms and conditions set out unilaterally by the federal government has brought the matter back to the starting point. There are little chances of the ruling PML-N and the opposition agreeing to shared terms of reference (ToR) and making it possible for a judicial commission to meaningfully investigate the money trail of offshore companies and investments. The government is determined to ensure that the prime minister’s family does not face any investigation. Neither the prime minister himself nor the PML-N leadership is willing to put the facts on the table about how his family managed such massive business-money transactions. The opposition parties, especially the PTI, want to focus first on the financial activities of the prime minister’s family and then look into the affairs of others named in the Panama leaks.



The federal government’s strategy of going slow on the Panama leaks and confronting the opposition is based on three assumptions. First, the diversified opposition will find it difficult to sustain its unity over an extended period, especially if the PML-N circles are able to exploit mutual jealousies and leadership conflicts within the opposition. The PML-N’s operational strategy is to let the controversy drag on rather than be met with a quick solution. These delaying tactics are accompanied by a sharp criticism of what is described as the misdeeds of the opposition parties and how their leaderships engaged in corruption in the past. This approach has intensified conflict between the two sides. Second, the government is hoping that the opposition activism will fizzle out in the month of Ramazan. By the time the holy month is over, the Panama leaks would become part of history. The government, therefore, wants the three weeks of the month of Shaban to pass without a major political incident. Third, a section of the PML-N is convinced that the permanent establishment of the country does not have any pragmatic choice other than raising the Panama issue with the prime minister whose support base in the Punjab limits the establishment’s ability to pressure the government.



These are questionable assumptions. The issues raised by the chief justice have restricted the options available to the prime minister. He cannot unilaterally establish a commission of inquiry on the basis of his ToRs. He would have to bring the opposition on board. It seems that the inquiry will have to be limited to the Panama leaks and the names of the people to be investigated will have to be listed. The federal government will find it difficult to put the names of the family of the prime minister in this list. The unnecessary delay in settling the Panama leaks issue or killing time by engaging in fruitless polemics in the media will not help the PML-N. This strategy is going to hurt the government more than the opposition. It is the government that has to perform in governance and political management. The ongoing controversies will adversely affect the civilian back-up activities for Operation Zarb-e-Azb and the implementation of the National Action Plan, which will have negative implications for civil-military relations. The military, as a whole, assigns the highest priority to countering terrorism, ending corruption and checking criminality. All this will be neglected if the Panama leaks issue drags on. There is another contentious issue involving civil-military relations. This pertains to the role of paramilitary forces in Punjab to deal with the above issues.

At the moment, the initiative for settling the issues arising out of the Panama leaks is with the prime minister. He is expected to lose this initiative if these issues are allowed to drag on. Either the opposition or the establishment will make the decision as to how to cope with the currently stalemated and uncertain political situation. A bold initiative is needed on the prime minister’s part to deal with the current crisis.



The following suggestions require consideration in order to defuse the current crisis and move towards a credible solution: 1) The prime minister should step down and nominate his successor from either within the party or outside as a temporary arrangement; 2) The Supreme Court may take the initiative on its own to look into the Panama leaks and ask political leaders to present information on their finances. They may be given a one-time immunity provided they disclose information voluntarily and pay the tax at a fixed rate for regularisation of their finances. This would be a one-time special arrangement; 3) In case there is no voluntary disclosure and the investigation proves illegal money trails, the culprit needs to be treated in accordance with existing laws or some new legislation; 4) If some new legislation is needed for this purpose, the required task should be done. The cases of other people will be dealt with by a special body or by NAB through the same procedure: voluntary disclosure and immunity, or disclosure through investigation; 5) It is hoped that this process regarding the Panama leaks will be completed by the end of the year. Early next year, 2017, new general elections should be held so that the civilian government in the post-Panama period has a fresh mandate.

These are broad-based ideas, which will have to be articulated by the people concerned. The immunity clause can be questioned on ethical grounds. However, in order to settle this matter at the earliest and return Pakistani politics and governance to its normal routine, such an action will be helpful. Otherwise, the current crisis can persist for an indefinite period, which will adversely affect the state’s and the leadership’s capacity to address more acute problems like extremism, terrorism, poverty, socioeconomic injustice, energy crisis and issues of economic development.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 16^th, 2016.

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