Muhammad Arshad, a seasoned finance professional, barely had time to celebrate when his company received a multi-million-rupee order for meat exports – the biggest deal of his career. As the company’s finance and operation manager, he was thrilled with the opportunity and quickly mobilised his staff. But what followed was a crash course in the harsh realities of Pakistan's export infrastructure.
Securing enough livestock to fulfill the order became a major challenge first; he had no option but to rely on traditional, often chaotic animal markets due to Pakistan's lack of organised farming infrastructure. While Arshad managed to gather the necessary animals despite the challenges, his problems, unfortunately, did not just end there.
“When we added up the actual costs of transportation and everything else, we realised that the profit would be much lower than expected,” Arshad shared. “So we had to stop exports in January 2024.”
Untapped potential
Though the 2023-24 fiscal year saw Pakistan’s meat exports to the Middle East soar as high as $430.89 Million, the country has yet to harvest the sector’s full potential. The exports to the region can amount to $3 billion, according to the Dr M. Akram, the Husbandry Commissioner at the Ministry of Food Security. “They could be even higher, if issues of supply chain, farms, standards and others are addressed properly,” he said.
The struggle Arshad’s company faced is not isolated incident; it reflects a broader set of challenges that are hindering Pakistan’s food export sector from reaching its real potential. Federation of Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) Chairman Karim Aziz Malik pointed out that several food exporters have had to cut back on exports lately. Rising business costs and other factors are hurting their profit margins, he explained. “The export businesses will struggle if the infrastructure doesn’t improve. Unclear rules and regulations, along with poor infrastructure, could really slow things down.”
The 2023-24 boom
However, while the challenges faced by businesses might make someone think things are looking bleak, there is still a surprise in store – Pakistan’s food exports are booming like never before. In 2023-24, Pakistan’s food exports saw historical high surge, hitting a staggering $8 billion, a massive 37 per cent increase over the previous year. Astonishingly, the country exported a whopping $2.36 billion worth of food products in the first four months of this year by itself, according to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Rice alone brought in whopping $4 billion in 2023-24.
The year’s remarkable figures, driven by demand from diverse markets in Europe, China the Middle East and Africa, indicate a promising future for Pakistan’s food exports. Particularly exciting to see are Pakistani sesame seeds gaining popularity in China and other parts of the world with the country’s growing presence in the Middle East, Western Africa and Europe.
Nevertheless, it is paradoxical that despite ongoing issues and some dissatisfaction among exporters, food exports reached a record high. Several key factors played a role in this unexpected success story, including strategic government initiatives and a favourable marketplace, though threats exist that could potentially disrupt the growth momentum and prevent the industry from reaching its potential if issues on the ground are not addressed timely.
According to one commerce ministry official, to boost the exports further, the National Logistic Cell has improved its network for accessing CARS and Russian market. “Agro products are reaching to CARS, Afghanistan and Russia through this improved network connection,” he said. The government is also trying to explore a new trade route via Russia to Eastern European countries.
“[Besides other steps] we opted for effective marketing strategies to boost exports as well,” said Athar Khokar, the Director General Agro-Food at the Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP). TDAP facilitated the participation of exporters in international exhibitions – last year, 164 exporters participated in 17 exhibitions in different parts of the world. It also facilitated visits of exporters to different parts of the world and created opportunities where buyers in large numbers could interact with Pakistani exporters.
Documents also reveal efforts of the TDAP and the government for product development through seminars and training in different parts of the country to meet criteria for exports. The TDAP senior official noted that some new countries for food export are being targeted after analysing their market needs. For example, Indonesia, Philippines, African Countries, EU, KSA, and Central Asia are being focused as destinations for rice, while fisheries exports are being made to China, Thailand, EU, US and UK, he said.
An official in the commerce ministry, on condition of anonymity, said special marketing initiatives were launched in China for sesame and the seed is now being exported to China, EU and South Korea.
How the opportunity arose?
With all those efforts, it is important to acknowledge the impact of international factors and growing conditions as well. First, India’s decision to restrict some food exports to stabilise prices in their own country, along with their non-compliance with international standards and the restrictions imposed by EU on their some products, unintentionally created an opportunity for Pakistani food products like rice and onion to gain a larger share of the global market.
Detection of pesticide residues in Indian products were reported as Indian shipments did not comply with the maximum residue limits (MRLs) — the permissible thresholds for pesticides — set by the EU. India’s shipments had a relatively higher non-compliance rate compared to that of Pakistan, two years back. In addition, the crisis in Ukraine also caused interruption in supplies from that region that created an opportunity for the surge in Pakistani agro-food exports. Internally, production in Pakistan this time was far better in rice and other products too.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasted that Pakistan's milled rice production will increase 64 per cent to nine million metric tonnes (MT) in 2023–24. Fortunately, the actual production was slightly more than that estimate.
Can the success be sustained?
Yet, people who closely follow Pakistan’s exports are skeptical about whether the country can sustain the recent growth. How Pakistan can reach its ambitious goal of $25-30 billion in the next few years?
The answer is not simple as India has started improving things and decided to recapture the market by lifting limitations on its food exports. This year, rice shipments from Pakistan have triggered more alerts relating to the MRLs than those from India as well.
Dr. Abid Qaiyum Suleri, a researcher on food security and development and an executive director at SDPI, said that to improve food exports, Pakistan needs better arrangements for raw materials and value added products. “We don’t have such arrangements here. Also, the government should allow agents and also focus on quality and quantity to meet international standards.” Experts say it will take major effort to develop the infrastructure for food exports. According to them, this means Pakistan is far from reaching its full potential in food exports.
Some of the experts think that India’s decision to remove cap on its rice exports could significantly reduce Pakistan’s current exports. Karim Aziz Malik asked, “Can Pakistan sustain its $4 billion in rice exports? We can not compete with India’s non-basmati rice as it is $100 per tonne cheaper than ours. Now they have decided to increase export of the rice. Is it difficult to predict as what effect it would have on our total rice export?”
According to him Pakistan cannot hope for the best until prices of electricity and fuel are reduced for consumers in the country, interest rate is brought down to single digit, and basic issues are addressed, including tax structure for exporters.
Analysts maintain that at the movement, Pakistan cannot ignore conditions imposed by IMF and decisions on issues like tax relaxation are unlikely. Moreover, the Pakistani export sector is facing long-standing challenges – such as effective supply chain, storage facilities, farming and technology and others – that are hindering its growth.
Pakistan has been a top rice exporter for decades but even its rice industry faces basic issues. This raises questions the state of other export sectors. Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) Senior Vice Chairman Muhammad Jawed Jilani said they have recently discussed some issues with TDAP, whose officials vowed to address their difficulties.
In November a delegation from REAP, met with TDAP officials, raising concerns about export challenges, particularly related to storage, infrastructure, logistics and supply chain inefficiencies. The rice exporters also demand streamlining export processes and role of technology for competitiveness and enhancing quality. TDAP’s DG Agro-Food, when asked about REAP’s recommendations, said, “We are planning to involve all major stakeholders linked to logistic network for improving our valuechain”.
However, experts agree that the problems REAP raised have been around for decades and should have should have been fixed a long time ago. They maintain that successful exports need an established industry and investor-friendly environment. The situation in the rice industry is a sign that other parts of the export sector could be in even worse shape.
An exporter on condition of anonmity, shared that besides other issues sometime operational efficiency also become a problem. “To reach the real potential in agro-food export, we need modern farming practices and digital tools besides addressing the basic issues in the sector”, he said.
The concerned officials in the Ministry of Commerce were not available to comment on how the government plans to address the basic issues in food export. On future activities for promotion of Pakistani food products, TDAP’s DG Agro-Food said his organisation intends to participate in 27 major food exhibitions to showcase Pakistani products.
Imdad Hussain is a freelance journalist and contributor
All facts and information are the sole responsibility of the author