When terrorists once again targeted a Chinese convoy on October 6, killing two engineers working on the Port Qasim Power project, officials in Pakistan were worried. The attack took place just days before the visit of Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang.
This was the first visit by any Chinese prime minister in 11 years and came against the backdrop of a host of developments both on the bilateral as well as regional and international fronts. Premier Li’s schedule included a bilateral visit and meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Council of Heads of Governments, the second highest body within the Eurasian regional forum.
The reason Pakistani authorities were concerned was because they had feared that the terrorist attack just outside Karachi’s Jinnah International Airport may have compelled China to either cancel Premier Li’s trip or dispatch a junior delegation. This was not the first attack targeting the Chinese in Pakistan. At least 21 Chinese nationals working on different projects in Pakistan have been killed over the last few years.
China is known for showing strategic patience. It is their hallmark policy. The Chinese do not take the bait from their rivals. Instead they buy time and react to situations at an occasion of their choosing. The purpose of the Karachi terrorist attack – orchestrated by the Majeed Brigade, the suicide wing of banned Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA), – was to undermine Premier Li’s visit and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China knew about their adversaries’ schemes. Pakistani authorities felt relieved when China had conveyed that Premier Li would travel to Pakistan according to the plan.
However, this did not mean that Beijing was happy with yet another security lapse by Pakistani authorities leading to the Karachi incident. China never wanted to embarrass Pakistan publically nor intended to send a message to its rivals that it could abandon its partners. The visit of the Chinese Premier was important in the sense that SCO is Beijing’s initiative and without their high level participation the 10-member body would look weak.
One of the reasons that China is thriving on the global stage is because it takes risks. China invests in countries and regions where other countries shy away. For example, today China has more investment in Africa, one of the most volatile and neglected regions of the world, than any other country.
“Look even in Africa where the law and order situation is quite bad, you will not see Chinese nationals being killed in terrorist attacks,” said a Chinese official while requesting anonymity. The official said the Chinese government cannot afford its nationals getting killed in Pakistan just like that. It was because of this point that one of China’s senior ministers earlier this year issued a public warning: no investment without foolproof security for Chinese nationals in Pakistan.
This was a departure from China’s usual playbook where it does not discuss such issues publically with friendly countries. But Beijing’s patience has been running thin. After the March 26 Besham attack that killed five Chinese engineers, Pakistan, like in the aftermath of previous attacks, had given Beijing guarantees that there would be no lapse in the future. Authorities had even revised the protocols and standard operating procedures to make sure that terrorists do not penetrate in a similar manner. Despite those claims and revised arrangements, the outlawed Majeed Brigade succeeded in its plan in Karachi.
Yet, China did not ditch Pakistan. One source told The Express Tribune that during the visit of the Chinese premier to Islamabad, China’s state run-media was advised not to highlight the Karachi terrorist attack. The move was aimed at not embarrassing Pakistan at a time when it was hosting the SCO conference.
Against this backdrop, the visit of the Chinese Premier gained more importance. The optics and symbolism suggested that Pakistan-China cooperation was here to stay. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, along with senior cabinet ministers, went to the Noor Khan Airbase to receive his Chinese counterpart. Pakistan rolled out a red carpet to welcome Premier Li amid an unprecedented security lock down in Islamabad. Prime Minister Shehbaz and Premier Li, joined by their respective officials, held a wide-ranging discussion, covering bilateral, regional and international issues.
But the major emphasis was on the CPEC and its much talked about second phase. The CPEC, dubbed as the flagship programme of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, was inaugurated in 2015. Pakistan at the time was in the midst of crippling energy shortages with long power cuts. There were riots on the streets. Factories were being shut. People were desperate for electricity. So much so that people wanted uninterrupted power supply no matter the tariff.
The first major initiative under the CPEC was to set up power plants to meet the energy requirements. Within three years Pakistan managed to overcome the problems and had enough generation capacity to meet not just its present but future needs.
The first phase also focused on mega infrastructure projects such as motorways and highways. However, the second phase, which would have ushered in a new era of economic prosperity, never took off. The change of government in August 2018 led to a slowdown in the CPEC. The Covid-19 pandemic dealt a further blow. Donald Lu, one of the Biden administration’s officials, recently testified before the US Congressional committee that the CPEC had not moved forward since 2019. The second phase also envisioned the setting up of special economic zones (SEZs) where China would relocate its sunset industry. But since one factor or the other derailed the CPEC, those benchmarks could not be achieved.
However, Pakistani policymakers have realised that while maintaining friendly and mutually beneficial ties with other powers such as the US is important, China is the country that Pakistan needs the most.
Beijing has bailed out Pakistan on crucial occasions. Had China not rolled over loans in July last year, Pakistan would probably have defaulted. The recent $7 billion IMF bailout Pakistan has secured would not have been possible without China’s help. This fact was acknowledged by Pakistan’s prime minister himself soon after the IMF Executive Board approved the loan programme on September 25.
China is not just Pakistan’s economic partner but is critical for the country’s defence needs and for protecting its core interests at the international level. There was a time when Pakistan heavily depended on the US for its defence procurement but not anymore. Since the US tilt towards India and its growing strategic partnership with New Delhi, Pakistan has to rely on China. As a permanent member of the UNSC, China has also shielded Pakistan from many challenges. Without China’s support, Pakistan would have been at the mercy of many international players including India. Beijing’s decision not to allow the expansion of UNSC and inclusion of India is a case in point. If China withdraws objection to UNSC expansion, India would become the permanent member of the world’s body, making life difficult for Pakistan.
Therefore, Pakistan has no choice but to seek strategic partnership with China. Many were closely following the visit of Premier Li and its outcome. The two sides during the visit signed 13 memorandums of understanding in key areas to foster their cooperation. Premier Li and Prime Minister Shehbaz virtually inaugurated the Gwadar International Airport, a key plank of the CPEC. Gwadar is seen as linchpin of the CPEC. But full utilisation of the Gwadar International Airport and deep-sea port hinges on how quickly Pakistan lays necessary infrastructure.
Was the outcome of Premier Li’s visit as per Pakistan’s expectations? Pakistan had proposed about 41 deliverables for the Chinese prime minister’s visit and about 17 out of those were at the advanced stage, which could be finalised subject to Chinese consent. But those projects required more discussions.
Premier Li told Shehbaz that China was ready to work with Pakistan to build an ‘upgraded version’ of the CPEC, accelerate the construction of major projects in areas such as railways, highways and ports, strengthen industrial integration, deepen practical cooperation in agriculture, mining, information technology, and energy, to ensure the bilateral cooperation benefit the people more broadly.
But there was one caveat. “It is hoped that Pakistan will continue to provide a good business environment for Chinese companies and try its best to ensure the safety of Chinese personnel, institutions, and projects in Pakistan,” Li was quoted as saying by the Chinese state media. This means that use of jargon such as ‘eternal, unshakable and iron clad brothers’ to describe Pak-China relationship may sound sweet to ears but the fact remains that Pakistan has to pull its socks up because a business as usual attitude will no longer please our Chinese friends.