As the impacts of climate change escalate worldwide, Pakistan finds itself at the forefront, grappling with an increasing number of extreme weather events that threaten lives, livelihoods, and its fragile economy. Despite producing less than 1% of carbon footprints, the country is ranked as the 5th most vulnerable to climate change in UN’s Global Climate Risk Index. The adverse impact of changing weather patterns also became apparent in April 2024. It was recorded as the wettest month in Pakistan in six decades, which led to significantly above-average rainfall and deadly lightning strikes that resulted in the loss of both land and lives. According to available media reports, at least 41 people died in storm-related incidents across Pakistan, including 28 killed by lightning.
The growing frequency of these incidents is also noted in Sindh particularly in Tharparkar where death toll has remained severe. As per report of Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) - Sindh, during the 2024 monsoon season (June 30 to August 31), the vicious lightning took down 14 human lives, injured six others and killed 257 livestock.
According to AWARE's report on "Unpredictable Danger: A Case of Lightning Strikes in Tharparkar", 98 people and 1,756 animals have died from lightning in the district between 2019 and 2023. The region's residents live in fear due to the unprecedented frequency of lightning strikes in recent years, which have caused numerous fatalities and injuries. While worries prevail, the actual cause of these frequent lightning strikes remains unknown, and it is especially puzzling that this phenomenon appears to disproportionately affect Thar when other parts of Pakistan experience similar heavy rainfall. What measures can be taken to prevent such losses in the future?
Rainfall in Thar, once considered a blessing, has now become a source of consternation. The once-vital sowing season has turned into a time of anxiety, as lightning strikes disrupt fieldwork and threaten the socio-economic well-being of the region. The fear of lightning has severely impacted the livelihoods of the local communities, turning hope into despair.
If we try to unravel this environmental knot, it can be discerned that this may not be an isolated issue specific to Thar region. The frequency of lightning incidents has surged recently not just in Pakistan but also across the entire region, with India and Bangladesh also experiencing an alarming rise in lightning-related fatalities. Scientists claim that global warming, driven by climate change, is leading to increased thunderstorm activity and, consequently, more lightning strikes worldwide. The increase in global average temperatures results in convective activity, which generates more thunderstorms and lightning. Research has projected that a 1°C rise in temperature can lead to a 12 per cent increase in lightning strikes. For every 1°C rise in temperature, the atmosphere can hold roughly 7% more moisture. This increased moisture content enhances the probability of thunderstorms, leading to more intense storms and increased lightning activity.
Research study from the University of California, Berkeley, published in journal science reveals that ‘’rising temperatures breed lightning because the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere — the fuel for thunderstorms — increases exponentially as the air gets warmer’’. "As the planet warms, there will be more of this fuel lying around, so when thunderstorms get triggered, they will be more energetic’’.
Furthermore, study at James Madison University (JMU) in Virginia explores the link between thunderstorms and aerosols, evaluating the impact of pollution on lightning activity. The study highlights that ‘’pollution acts as cloud nuclei’’. A similar research was conducted in India, focusing on the most vulnerable Bihar region, which reveals that aerosols such as pollution or dust particles can affect the friction between the particles that generate lightning and make it more common. Although, these factors have been studied, yet it is unclear to what extent these factors can definitively be attributed to increased frequent lightning strikes. Moreover, it is important to note that these contributing factors vary by region, with local conditions playing a significant role in the formation of thunderstorms and the occurrence of lightning.
Nevertheless, the issue still remains under scientific investigation globally as scientists are still trying to get a proper assessment of, because of the many different atmospheric factors at play. Despite all these extensive research efforts worldwide and advancements in meteorology, the exact mechanisms behind lightning formation and behaviour remain largely shrouded in mystery.
All the more, a report titled "Climate Change Scenarios in Pakistan – A Case Study of Thar Sindh," by the Research and Development Foundation highlights that rising surface air temperatures, driven by climate change, are causing higher evaporation rates and more atmospheric moisture. This results in changing seasonal rainfall patterns, particularly in the Thar Desert. Therefore, the region is expected to become even hotter, with rainfall remaining erratic and unpredictable.
Given these alarming trends and claims, there is a dire need for scientific discourse to study these connections such as how climate change correlates to thunderstorms. Is there a link between the two? This requires a scientific research especially based on regional data-driven climate and weather modelling tools, to explore the connection behind it.
Moreover, to contextualise this generic conundrum in vulnerable areas like Tharparkar, the rise in the frequency of lightning events underscores the urgent need for both investigation and action. The frequent occurrence of lightning during monsoon seasons in the Thar region can likely be attributed to a complex interplay of topographical, environmental, and climatic factors. However, these factors must be further investigated holistically to identify the actual causes of the phenomenon and debunk the myths associated with it. Such research should aim to pinpoint contributing elements and develop strategies for forecasting and mitigating lightning hazards.
Moreover, while developing safety guidelines and precautionary measures, it's crucial to consider the unique socio-technical characteristics of region, particularly in developing countries like Pakistan, including literacy rate, income sources, cultural practices, available type of shelter, and local infrastructure, ensuring they are scientifically grounded and tested for local effectiveness. Additionally, it is essential to establish lightning proof community shelters and effective alert and emergency response protocols to protect the population.
Apart from the scientific discourse, local communities in the Thar region currently lack the necessary knowledge and resources to protect themselves. Many rely on untested myths and folklore, leaving them exposed to lightning strikes. These beliefs highlight the critical need for public education campaigns that provide accurate information and promote life-safety measures. Such initiatives could only save lives but also help in diluting the prevailing eco-anxiety as identified by the reports.
Adapting to this new force of nature requires significant behavioural changes. People living in open, rural areas are especially at risk of being struck by lightning during thunderstorms. Therefore, it is essential to educate locals on safety practices, such as avoiding open fields, seeking shelter in safer structures during storms, and adhering to recommended precautions. By raising awareness regarding safety precautions through the lightning resilient campaigns, relevant forums can help reduce vulnerability and prevent further losses.
Hence, effectively addressing the looming danger of lightning strikes requires a concerted effort from government entities, relevant stakeholders including policy makers and disaster managers, non-governmental organisations, donor agencies, academic institutions, research facilities, and civil society. By working together to implement adaptation and mitigation strategies, we can protect vulnerable communities and minimise the devastating impact of future lightning events. The time to act is now—before the next storm strikes.
Note: The attached images were collected from locals and captured during lightning incidents that occurred during the monsoon rains in August 2024.
Shafqat Hussain Memon is an academic and researcher based in Jamshoro. He can be reached via email at hussainshafqat.memon@gmail.com
All facts and information are the sole responsibility of the author