What was initially expected to be a straightforward contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump has evolved into a national referendum on the aging president’s fitness for office. As Democrats wrestle with efforts to block their candidate’s bid for a second term, the stakes have grown markedly higher.
Concerns about Biden’s cognitive decline, which had been brewing for some time, came to a head three weeks ago during a presidential debate with his Republican challenger. Since then, the intensified scrutiny over the octogenarian's suitability for the highest office has added significant peril to his re-election campaign, further complicating an already contentious race.
The president’s performance, marked by moments of rambling and incoherence, ignited a national debate about his fitness for the role, immediately sending shock waves through his supporter base within the Democratic Party and across the country. Throughout the 90-minute televised debacle, Biden frequently appeared overwhelmed, raising doubts about his ability to effectively challenge his unusually composed predecessor, Donald Trump.
The repercussions of the debate have left little room for the president’s team to maneuver or undertake a damage control mission to revive his candidacy. With polls predicting a steady lead for Trump in several battleground states, including some that voted blue in the last election, intraparty anxiety has peaked, leading to waves of defections. So far, 30 Democratic lawmakers, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and even Biden’s former boss, Barack Obama, have nearly accepted his political obituary.
If, by some miracle, the president survives the insurmountable political pressure to end his re-election campaign, he will soon face another daunting challenge: running out of the necessary funds to compete against Trump. Wealthy Democratic donors and even small dollar supporters have closed their wallets, leaving Biden with just $25 million in July, a paltry sum for a summer month in a high-stakes presidential race. Both supporters and critics are already questioning his capacity to lead, making him, what experts believe, the strongest president with the slightest chance of winning the election. However, chances of Biden staying in the race appear very slim as murmurs from within his camp suggest that he may be considering the possibility of stepping down as his party’s candidate against Trump just months before November’s vote.
On the other hand, Trump, who has now made history by surviving an assassination attempt and securing the Republican nomination for the third time despite being convicted on 34 counts, stands as the first felon to run for the White House, adding another unprecedented twist to the US Presidential race. And the chips appear to be falling in place for Biden’s rival. At the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Milwaukee, the former president sealed his fate by securing his party’s nomination and choosing freshman Senator James David (J.D.)Vance of Ohio—an outspoken conservative who had previously compared Trump to Adolf Hitler—as his running mate.
Experts noted that the timing of the convention could not have been more beneficial for the former president. “Trump has just narrowly escaped an assassination attempt and has effectively galvanised the GOP and millions of supporters.”
In the longest political convention speech to date, which stretched over 90 minutes, Donald Trump, currently leading in all national opinion polls, recounted the harrowing near-death experience before a packed arena of supporters and GOP leaders. He proclaimed that he had been saved “by the grace of almighty God.” Although his delivery was subdued compared to his typical fiery style, Trump emphasised a call for national unity and an end to “discord and division” before reinforcing his ‘America First’ agenda – which resonated deeply with the already charged RNC audience. He signalled a return to economic nationalism and hinted at a new protectionist and populist shift, should he return to the White House next year.
“There is genuine concern in political circles about Trump’s potential return to the White House and how he might navigate his second term,” observed Storer Rowley, former national editor and foreign correspondent at the Chicago Tribune. Rowley, who has covered Presidents Carter, Reagan, and Bush Sr., noted that Biden’s lackluster debate performance has unsettled many Democratic supporters, creating a moment of heightened political uncertainty for the party.
“It was a terrible performance, and there is significant agony within the party about whether Biden is even the right candidate. With a month to go before the Democratic convention and four months until the election, that uncertainty looms large,” Rowley said.
“Secondly, the assassination attempt, during which Trump was wounded, is likely to result in a surge of support and empathy for the former president,” Rowley said. “His defiant stance, confident fist-pumping and shouting ‘Fight! Fight! Fight!’ will likely galvanise his supporters further.” Rowley added that the support for Trump would be even more fervent among his MAGA base, including Christian followers who view him as a kind of messianic figure.
“They believe that his surviving the assassination attempt is a sign from God that he is meant to lead their cause. And finally, he’s like a cat with nine lives—Judge Cannon in Florida dismissed his classified documents case,” he added.
Despite these favourable developments for the former Republican president, Rowley cautioned that it is still too early to predict the election outcome in his favour. “We don’t know at this point; a lot can happen between now and November when the election takes place.”
Dilemma for Democrats
With calls for Biden to exit the race growing louder than ever, Democrats find themselves at a crossroads just months before a pivotal presidential election that could alter the nation’s trajectory and its future. The Democratic Party, with its diverse and multifaceted coalition, faces unique challenges compared to the more uniform MAGA base. While Trump’s supporters have remained steadfast at around 40% for years, Democrats struggle to maintain unity within their broad, varied coalition.
Elite voices within the Democratic Party—powerful donors and influential Congress and Senate members, Rowley pointed out, are deeply worried that Biden may not be up to the task. Critics, including commentators like Tom Friedman, Nicholas Kristof, Jonathan Alter, and Maureen Dowd, have argued that Biden’s age is the biggest factor against this candidacy. At 81, Biden is perceived as less energetic than the 78-year-old Trump, who appears more vigorous by comparison. This age-related decline, Rowley said, has fueled debates over whether the president should step aside for a younger candidate to lead the party.
If Biden, who many analysts now view as a liability, decides to exit, the party will need to find a candidate who can emerge as a strong contender against Trump. So far, potential candidates include Democratic governors Wes Moore of Maryland, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. Although Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive heir apparent, has performed better than her boss in hypothetical matchups against Trump, she has fared worse than several others on the list of potential replacements.
This internal turmoil within the Democratic party, Rowley said, is eroding support and causing anxiety among the voters. “While there is hope that the party will unite once the convention is over, uncertainty remains about whether it will culminate in Biden passing the torch or continuing with the existing ticket.”
Describing the current trend as troubling, Rowely said: “Trump seems to be gaining momentum while Biden appears to be losing ground. The coming weeks will be crucial, though polls should be viewed with caution.”
Trump’s theme
Despite his criminal convictions, Trump has maintained his ability to connect with and charm his supporters. His rhetoric has consistently aimed at satisfying his MAGA base, and he has frequently characterised the legal proceedings against him as ‘persecution’—a portrayal that has helped him gain additional sympathy among his followers.
In Milwaukee, several speakers at the RNC finale openly denounced what they framed as political persecution against their leader. Peter Navarro, a former aide in Trump’s White House, was greeted with cheers as he addressed the crowd just hours after his release from federal custody in Miami. “This morning, I walked out of federal prison,” Navarro told the enthusiastic audience, adding, “If they can come for me, if they can come for Trump, be careful. They will come for you.” Navarro had been imprisoned in March after being convicted of contempt of Congress for defying a subpoena from the House committee investigating the January 6 attack and efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. “In Trump’s America, you won’t have to go to prison for saying no to the government; I went to prison so you won’t have to,” he declared in his impassioned speech.
Don Trump Jr., the former president’s son, took the stage to praise his father as the most courageous politician, underscoring the strength he displayed following the assassination attempt. He touched on familiar themes from his father’s campaign, including immigration, left-wing policies, and concerns about the country’s direction, implying that Biden’s inability to lead meant the reins of power could be with Jill Biden, Hunter Biden, or even Obama. “They punished my father for speaking the truth,” Trump Jr. told roaring attendees at the RNC.
Delivering the acceptance speech at the convention, Trump himself struck a more restrained tone, declaring that he was running for president “for all of America, not half of America, because there is no victory in winning for half of America.” Repeatedly invoking God as he recounted the attempt on his life, Trump suggested that a higher power had spared him for a bigger cause. “I’m not supposed to be here,” Trump said, referring to the shooting incident at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. The crowd responded with cheers of “Yes you are.” Divine intervention became the central theme of the four-day party convention, with speakers attributing Trump’s survival to divine protection, including Franklin Graham, son of the renowned evangelical pastor Billy Graham, who led the arena in a prayer for the Republican leader.
“Unfortunately, the idea of casting him as a saviour-figure is not new. It goes back to the previous campaign,” said Dr Melissa Beattie, who is currently affiliated with Southern New Hampshire University.
“There is a relevant quote from Revelations 13:3 ‘One of the heads of the Beast was wounded...and all of the world marvelled and followed after the Beast...’ I point this out not because I’m ascribing anything divine one way or another, but that their campaign, and this is true of many Evangelical groups backed by the right-and far-right-wing, is using religious faith against those who have been disempowered by elites from all sides,” explained Beattie, whose research focuses on national identity, audience studies, and textual analysis. “It is a confidence trick to bilk those who have little or nothing out of what little they have,” she added.
The cult
Supporters of Donald Trump have frequently embraced his most outlandish claims. Shortly after losing the 2020 election, he incited what was described as an extraordinary breach—an insurrection at the Capitol, the seat of the US government. Loyalists, acting on the former president’s directives, stormed the Capitol to prevent Congress from certifying then President-elect Biden. Although Trump was indicted last year on felony charges related to his efforts to overturn the election results and obstruct the peaceful transfer of power, his supporters have rejected these charges as political persecution.
The recent assassination attempt has further cemented his following. At the RNC, where Trump appeared with a bandage on his ear, many supporters wore similar bandages in a show of solidarity. Members of the RNC’s Arizona delegation explained that the bandages were a symbolic gesture of their support for the former president following the attack at the Pennsylvania rally. “We want him to know how much we love him,” some of them told CNN.
Experts argue that despite his criminal convictions and a history of misrepresenting his wealth, Trump retains strong support among his base. This popularity is attributed to his unapologetic display of masculinity, his invocation of political nostalgia with his “Make America Great Again” slogan, his economic policies tailored to his supporters, and his use of themes that resonate with certain biblical texts – which was evident in a message he posted on Truth Social shortly after the assassination attempt: “We will FEAR NOT, but instead remain resilient in our Faith and Defiant in the face of Wickedness.”
“Cult leaders often couch their authoritarian kleptocracies in these religious terms,” explained Beattie. “Given that this form of Evangelical authoritarianism relies on the oppression of all minorities, including different denominations of Christianity, it poses a significant threat to sociocultural equality. Regardless of the shooter’s motives, which I am not speculating on, his actions have likely exacerbated the situation for those of us who oppose dictatorship. Political violence can be used as a pretext to undermine or eliminate civil liberties,” she cautioned.
Beattie attributed the political polarisation that many blame on Trump to a broader historical and ongoing disempowerment of all but the elite. “Elites use rhetoric to divide the disempowered, setting them against one another so they cannot unite and vote out or otherwise challenge those in power,” she pointed out.
“While these elites can come from any political spectrum, they often lean right and focus on preserving and expanding their own power and wealth. This dynamic echoes Richard Nixon’s ‘Southern Strategy,’ which intensified existing tensions between poor black and poor white communities to prevent them from voting Democratic,” she added.
For the faithfuls
The selection of J.D. Vance as running mate is widely viewed by political analysts as a strategic move to appease the most faithful MAGA supporters. Analysts suggest that Vance, the freshman senator from Ohio, is the true heir to Trump’s MAGA movement, given his resonance with the average voter. Known for his staunch positions, Vance has criticised Europe for allegedly taking advantage of American generosity, the support for Ukraine, advocated for economic populism, and supported draconian abortion restrictions. Michelle Cottle , who has covered Washington and politics since the Clinton administration, describes Vance as an absolute disgrace who will eventually inherit the conservative movement from Trump.
Chicago Tribune’s former national editor described the induction of Vance as an attempt to attract the broader MAGA base. “There is a large minority in America filled with grievance, feeling they have lost their former dominance, and that’s the crowd Vance, along with Trump, appeal to.” This group, Rowley noted, is susceptible to arguments that immigrants are taking their jobs and that Biden is wrecking the economy.
“Vance, who has proposed a radical plan to build a government of Trump loyalists, supports policies that could further entrench lawlessness,” cautioned Rowley.
“Unfortunately, the seesaw of political progress and regression in the US continues, with current momentum favoring policies that Trump and Vance stand for, which is alarming,” the former Chicago Tribune journalist concluded.
Making of an emperor
Based on the current polls, Donald Trump is poised to win the November election. However, if polls were always accurate, Hillary Clinton would have been president in 2017, not Trump. If his first term was marked by chaos, a second term could be an unmitigated disaster for both the country and the world, especially since there would be no guardrails this time. Earlier this month, the US Supreme Court handed what observers have described as a carte blanche to Trump and his successors, if any.
In a striking conclusion to its term, the Supreme Court issued a monumental decision favoring Trump and future presidents who might violate the law and their constitutional oaths. The top court’s conservative majority declared that official acts central to the presidency are granted ‘absolute immunity’ from prosecution. Additionally, other actions, even those bordering the limits of a president’s official duties, are deemed ‘presumptively immune,’ significantly complicating efforts to prosecute them.
“The Supreme Court has now given Trump the carte blanche to do whatever he wants under the guise of official acts,” said Rowley. He termed the decision as an extraordinarily dangerous development. "If elected, Trump could appoint more Supreme Court justices who would enact even more undemocratic laws," Rowley warned.
“The court’s decision has granted Trump—and the presidency—powers that verge on making a president more like a king -- exactly what the founders wanted to prevent. This court risks going down in history as politically motivated and harmful to our democracy and values,” he added.
The dangerous blueprint
Though Project 2025 is not officially linked to Donald Trump and he has declared no direct involvement, it appears to be a conservative master plan that reflects many of the former president’s policies on contentious issues. According to a report by The New York Times, Trump is not behind the initiative.
Spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank based in Washington, D.C., Project 2025 has provoked outrage among Democrats.
Some of the proposed policies have been endorsed by Trump’s vice president, J.D. Vance, and include plans to fire all federal officials and replace them with those who pledge loyalty, monitor pregnancies, and place the Department of Justice under the president’s direct control. Other proposals involve rolling back emissions regulations, deporting immigrants, and providing tax breaks for the wealthy.
If implemented, Project 2025 would cement a firm conservative grip over the Executive Branch. According to The New York Times, the 900-page document, which outlines a detailed blueprint for a future conservative administration, was partly crafted by individuals who were senior advisers to Trump during his first term and who would likely assume prominent roles should he win in November.
When asked to comment on the proposed plan and Trump's association with it, Rowely said: "I would be very skeptical of Trump's denials. Project 2025 would shred the protections of the constitution and put trusted American liberties and values at risk."