While Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) sends out conflicting signals about talks with political forces through its fluctuating statements, its desire to reconnect with powerful stakeholders is becoming more evident with each passing day. Yet, there is no breakthrough, as neither the civil-military leadership nor PTI founding chairman Imran Khan and his party are ready to take a step back and end the ongoing stalemate, which has been keeping the nation on edge for the past few years now.
From PTI to other political parties and from the judiciary to powerful stakeholders, all agree that talks are the only way forward to achieve economic and political stability. Yet, the situation on the ground remains unchanged, with no one ready to move an inch from their positions. In fact, all sides are intensifying their stances at frequent intervals. The reason: all sides believe the stakes are so high that the winner will take all, making it seem they care less about the country’s betterment and more about their personal objectives. It seems like Pakistan’s own version of ‘Game of Thrones’ is in full swing as different stakeholders vie for greater control over power.
PTI founding chairman and his party firmly believe that there is no point in talking to the ruling political parties as they cannot guarantee what PTI desires, making all their statements about talks redundant. They have long been seeking an opening for talks with the country’s powerful quarters only but the other side has maintained its distance, especially after noticing that Imran and his party continue to constantly try and single out the army chief.
On May 7, the military’s spokesperson demanded that Imran Khan shun what he called ‘politics of anarchy and hate’ and revive his political fortunes by tendering a sincere and public apology for the May 9 mayhem. The army believes PTI was behind the riots that day when civil and military installations were attacked in the country. Imran and his party's responded with a resounding no, asserting that the May 9 violence was a ‘false-flag operation’ and blaming the military establishment for it. Thus, the stalemate continues.
Then came an offer from the judiciary when the Chief Justice of Pakistan advised Imran Khan to talk to his political opponents while stressing "they are not your enemies". The CJP added "the politicians should sit together and solve the issues." Initially, PTI questioned the suggestion but then decided that Imran would write a letter to the top court in this regard. However, in the meantime, the proposal to talk to the political forces in power — PML-N, PPPP, and MQM-P—was turned down by PTI again. PTI initially said it was open to holding talks with political parties but then reversed its stance, saying that the head of the recently formed opposition alliance, Mahmood Khan Achakzai, could talk to them, as PTI would not hold talks with these three parties. Thus, it was back to square one.
The reason Imran doesn’t want to talk to his political rivals is that he has long been building a narrative that his opponents, especially PML-N and PPPP, are corrupt. Shaking hands with them would undermine his entire narrative and political journey. He has avoided doing so in the past, and his intentions remain clear that he isn’t yet ready to change his stance. However, his party leaders say that he would be willing to talk to them if the establishment is also present on the table.
A recent conversation on the subject with renowned political experts Professor Tahir Naeem Malik, Zaigham Khan, Majid Nizami and former envoy Hussain Haqqani shed light on why the offers of talks were not translating into meaningful dialogue. One reason is that all the talk offers are conditional, and the conditions are quite hard to meet.
Professor Tahir Naeem Malik of NUML University says that the desire to hold talks with the establishment while constantly trying to single out the army chief can't go hand in hand. He suggests that Imran should have learned by now that the establishment’s approach is different from that of a political entity. Malik advises finding a way to reduce escalation, as pressure tactics might not work in his opinion.
Zaigham Khan said that PTI tried to put pressure on the establishment, military leadership, and the judiciary to engage Imran Khan on his terms, but it didn’t work. He added that the essence of PTI's approach was that Imran is right and the others are wrong, and that the powerful stakeholders are morally bound to support Imran rather than his rivals. However, Imran went too far in his method of applying pressure, which had severe repercussions.
Majid Nizami recalled that things usually return to normalisation after general elections, noting that things were extremely difficult for PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif before the 2018 elections but started to ease out within a few months afterward. He said that PTI has never been an anti-establishment party and its differences were only with some personalities within the establishment. Nizami suggested that PTI's desire to have talks with the establishment indicates it is ready to strike a deal or get an NRO (National Reconciliation Ordinance), whatever you name it.
Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador currently a scholar at Washington DC’s Hudson Institute and the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi, noted that Imran believes in shaping things via narrative. However, his attempt to declare the May 9 events as a false flag operation without presenting any evidence undermines his position. Haqqani added that May 9 sent a message to the military leadership that if the army doesn’t support a political party, it might face direct confrontation with the military establishment, which they disliked.
Haqqani felt that the chances of ending the stalemate between the military establishment and PTI remain slim, as Imran still wants reconciliation on his terms. However, he noted that history shows it has always been the military leadership that makes the other side agree to what they want, offering some concessions in return.
In a political landscape where economic success is deeply dependent on political stability, the lack of concrete measures to unite all players at the negotiation table is continuously hurting Pakistan. This is especially true when Imran Khan remains firm in his refusal to negotiate with other political parties, viewing them as incapable of meeting his demands.
The rivalry between PTI and PML-N remains fierce, with both sides fighting for supremacy and wanting to have powerful stakeholders on their side. Experts, however, advocate for de-escalation and democratic dialogue, emphasising the need for political parties to strengthen their own positions and collaborate, rather than relying on the military. Such an approach is crucial for normalising the political environment and achieving stability in Pakistan’s ongoing struggle for power.
The civil-military leadership often claims that the country is above politics, but it’s time to walk the talk by showing that coming to power or gaining control over power is not more important than the nation’s survival.