KARACHI:

Last year, Joe Biden met with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in California’s Santa Cruz Mountains, marking their first encounter following a protracted period of strained relations between the two nations. Shortly after what was perceived as an ice-breaking summit, Biden went to the microphones to spin his maiden engagement with the Chinese leader as ‘constructive, productive, and blunt.’ In contrast, Xi wasted no time and swiftly transitioned to a high-stakes dinner with prominent business leaders, many of who had been hesitant about investing in China. The symbolism was unmistakable, and the half-hearted rapprochement between the two leaders was apparent.

Within hours, Biden’s diplomatic team at the US Department of State found themselves scrambling for damage control so much so that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was seen wincing after his boss described Chinese leader Xi Jinping as a 'dictator.' The moment occurred during a press conference following a meeting aimed at improving frosty US-China ties. When asked whether he stood by remarks made in June where he referred to Xi as a 'dictator,' President Biden responded, “Look, he is. He's a dictator in the sense that he governs a country that is communist and operates under a governmental system vastly different from ours.” Experts described the event as a diplomatic faux pas and Beijing acknowledged it as one by dismissing Biden’s comments as “incorrect and irresponsible political manipulation.”

But if President Biden had drawn lessons from his predecessor, Richard M. Nixon, whose thoughts were documented in his penultimate book, ‘Seize the Moment: America’s Challenge in a One-Superpower World,’ published in the 1990s, the course of events between Washington and Beijing might have been different. In this book, Nixon reflected on the West’s triumph in the Cold War against the Soviet Union but cautioned against the notion that history had reached its conclusion or that geo-economics had supplanted geopolitics. Instead, the former president of the United States advocated for a recalibration of Washington’s geopolitical strategy, emphasising the need for realistic leadership based on enduring geopolitical realities rather than an idealistic pursuit of global democracy.

Credited for initiating the historic opening of Sino-American relations in 1972, Nixon foresaw the Pacific Rim as “the world’s new economic locomotive “and predicted China's inevitable rise as both an economic and military superpower. Today, Nixon's words can be viewed as remarkably prophetic. Washington has consistently advocated for and, in some instances, imposed its vision of democracy worldwide. And as Nixon had predicted, China has emerged as a global power, both militarily and in other areas.

But to be fair to Biden politically, he cannot afford to abandon the anti-China sentiments and appear conciliatory, considering the prevailing mood in both the Republican and Democratic parties. Janet Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, had earlier indicated that the Biden White House was not keen to experiment with economic decoupling but was interested in a focused set of restrictions geared toward national security. But Beijing sees the Trump administration's tariffs and the decline in trade and investment flows compared to other trading partners as a sign that Washington’s intentions extend beyond normal security concerns. At home in China, President Xi has expressed his desire to firmly challenge this “bullying” and “hegemonism” from the West.

At a rare closed-door party meeting about China’s future foreign policy direction that was held in December last year, the Chinese leader urged the country’s diplomats and cadres to “break new ground”, “rally the overwhelming majority” of the world and adhere to the “fighting spirit”.

The message from President Xi seems to serve as an opening act for a great power competition that has the potential to once again divide the world into camps – one supporting the fading power, believed by experts to be the United States, and another favouring the rising power, which they identify as China. As the world gears up for what is being described by many as Cold War 2.0, The Express Tribune reached out to Dr. Talat Wizarat, an expert in the field of foreign policy and international affairs to share her thoughts on the competition between China and the US.

US foreign policy

According to a paper published in the Journal of Liberty and International Affairs on US foreign policy, Washington is heavily invested in hindering China’s ability to dominate the region and the world, particularly in the absence of a stronger US strategy and presence. Some experts argue that Washington’s collective targeting of both Moscow and Beijing has brought the two together – a situation that contradicts Richard Nixon’s policy to divide and dilute the communist bloc when he engineered the Sino-Soviet split during his White House years.

“The US would like to postpone the rise of China, but it fails to realise that this strategy will hurt all stakeholders, particularly the West,” said Dr. Talat Wizarat, author of the recently published book ‘Belt and Road Initiative: Emerging World Order.’

Many decades ago, Nixon cautioned the world and his successors about China. He wrote, “Potentially China could decide the world balance of power in the last decades of the twentieth century, and could emerge as the most powerful nation on earth during the twenty-first century.” The former US president even went ahead and said that China possessed a ‘huge population, enormous natural resources, and some of the ablest people in the world’. Nixon’s recent successors, starting with Donald Trump, have ignored the insights and observations he left behind.

For Wizarat, the rules of the game are fairly simple. The former chairperson of the International Relations Department at the University of Karachi believes that the world will have to learn to work with China rather than against it. “That is the only way forward because the world cannot afford another desperate attempt by any country to claim superpower status.” Analysing both Beijing and Washington’s stances on the power competition, Dr. Wizarat said that the US wants to keep China out of the race but also desires to compete against it – a strategy the expert said was counterintuitive.

China, on the other hand, appears to be setting its own rules. Sharing President Xi’s strategy at an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations, Liu Jianchao, Minister of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) International Liaison Department, stated that Beijing does not seek to change the current international order, much less reinvent the wheel by creating a new international order. “President Xi Jinping reiterated during his recent visit to the United States that China will not engage in a Cold War or a hot war with anyone. People in Asia have our own way of dealing with each other, which values peace above everything else and seeks peaceful solutions to all disputes,” said Minister Liu, who has recently ascended to the top of President Xi’s list of party favourites.

At CFR, a Washington-based think tank that specialises in US foreign policy, Liu also emphasised that the Chinese leadership had better plans for the country’s economy and foreign policy – which many experts believe will be assertive in the future. “Gone are the days of China being subdued through opium and drugs. Even while Beijing’s view of the world is still shaped by the conflicts of the past, it is more assertive and no longer exposed as a hollow empire. Today, the Chinese have rediscovered their strength. Each citizen is aware that the modern drive for wealth and power is, at root, a means of avenging the Opium Wars and the events that followed,” explained Dr. Wizarat.

Possible traps

When asked to comment on the possibility of a conflict or military confrontation between China and the US, Dr. Wizarat said: “There is potential, and the possibility cannot be ruled out completely. However, it is more likely that Washington would prefer another country to instigate the conflict on its behalf – just as in the case of Ukraine, where, through certain actions, Kyiv has managed to drag Moscow into a battle.”

At CFR last month, Minister Liu was very confident about China’s long-term vision. “Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, we have all along had a good record of peace. We have never provoked a conflict or war, or occupied a single inch of foreign land,” he told the audience.

According to Dr. Wizarat, Beijing has moved very swiftly in arranging allies and what she called working partners through its grand infrastructure investments – frequently described as its soft power. “China hasn't fired missiles or invaded foreign territory in the same manner as the US has,” she explained.

However, the expert cautioned that attempts were being made to cross China’s red line. “While Beijing has shown no signs of being dragged into a conflict with the US, it’s worth noting that Taiwan is China’s red line, and any attempts by the US to cross it would result in a military confrontation.”

In principle, Washington has always adhered to its diplomatic acknowledgment of China’s position that there is only one Chinese government. Under this policy, it recognises and maintains formal relations with China, rather than with the island of Taiwan, which Beijing has openly declared as a breakaway province to be unified with the mainland eventually. However, behind the scenes, China accuses Washington of engaging in activities aimed at promoting the notion of Taiwan as an independent state.

Taiwan, like Ukraine, in the case of Russia, as Wizarat stated, could potentially be utilised to provoke China in the long run. “There are other actors as well. India could be used to instigate conflict in the contested Ladakh area – where Chinese and Indian troops have been involved in aggressive melee and skirmishes along the Sino-Indian border,” she cautioned. However, Wizarat believes that India will avoid all possibilities of playing into Washington’s hands in this case.

On the other hand, Wizarat also pointed out that Washington itself would want to avoid any direct confrontation with Beijing because it believes China is a strong power. “That said, the South and East China Sea remain areas of potential contention, and Beijing takes them very seriously.”

Rapprochement

For China and the US to collaborate effectively, it would require another Nixon-like leader in Washington to mitigate the deep-seated mistrust. However, this theory lacks support among experts familiar with the issue. The level of mistrust has escalated to the extent that cooperation was nearly halted on several important issues, including defence, leading up to the summit between Biden and Xi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting last November.

After the meeting in San Francisco, the previously on-again, off-again, bilateral military dialogue was finally resumed, a development welcomed by many independent observers. Biden stressed that these measures would prevent ‘accidents from happening’. There was also a vaguely formulated agreement on AI. However, specific details regarding the form or substance of those discussions were not disclosed.

“Both Washington and Beijing would need to collaborate moving forward. The world is a complex place with intricate issues, and the US has suffered a loss of credibility following its inability to prevent the atrocities in Gaza," stated Wizarat, who added that the US finds itself at odds with even staunch allies like France, Canada, Australia, and Japan. Under these circumstances, she said, reconciliation was the way forward for Washington vis-à-vis Beijing.

Beijing’s path

A great deal of speculation has been made about China’s global and domestic ambitions. At the CFR event last month, Minister Liu, often referred to as China’s shadow foreign minister, made it clear that his country was committed to modernisation through high-quality development, emphasising innovation and technological progress. He stated that China was pivoting towards a growth model that prioritises quality over speed, aiming for balanced and sustainable development. Despite the perceived slowdown, he claimed, China's economy maintains stable growth with a focus on high-quality innovation.

According to Wizarat, China’s foundations appear to be solid, and the country has already charted its course – a path where it establishes ties through exchanges and investments in infrastructure rather than through territorial invasions and hostilities. “That allows nations to feel safer and less vulnerable within China’s sphere of influence compared to the US,” she added.

Wizarat’s observation is supported by the views expressed by another former US president, Bill Clinton, who in 1997 defended engagement with Beijing as fundamental to America's economic and security interests: “Isolation of China is unworkable, counterproductive and potentially dangerous.”

Grand initiatives

According to Wizarat, who has recently authored a book on China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Washington’s long-term strategy has been to undermine Beijing’s grand initiatives. “The US aims to scuttle the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and other large-scale initiatives undertaken by China globally.” Countries like Pakistan, the expert warned, would need to break free from the influence of Washington-based lenders, like the International Monetary Fund, to determine where their national interests truly lie. Unlike the US, she said, China is making long-term investments in Pakistan – with projects like the Gwadar port, which holds enormous potential, being prime examples. The incoming government, Wizarat said, should know which side its bread is buttered on.

54 years after Nixon

Nixon’s worldview may have been from a different era, and while many contemporary experts may argue that it is obsolete, it still holds weight when it comes to China. The former president, in his final words, even declared the China-U.S. rapprochement of 1972 as ‘the most dramatic geopolitical event since World War II’. He was almost certain that China would emerge as a great power with a strong military. He envisioned the country as an economic colossus and perhaps the ‘strongest power on earth’ in the 21st century.

Even while criticising China for its actions in the Tiananmen Square massacre, Nixon observed that there is “too much at stake in our relationship to substitute emotionalism for foreign policy.” Washington, he added, should not let human rights concerns define the relationship with Beijing. Wizarat’s view only confirms what Nixon wrote decades ago in his analysis of China. “There is no doubt in my mind that China is the next global power – it is only a matter of time,” she concluded.