The aftermath of Pakistan's 12th general elections on February 8, 2024, has plunged the nation into a vortex of uncertainty, triggering questions about the onset of a new era of instability in its political landscape.
Marked by allegations of compromised integrity of vote and accusations of manipulations, the democratic credentials of the country are under intense scrutiny. Despite 60.6 million voters participating, an increase of 5.8 million from the 2018 elections, the turnout dipped to 47.6 per cent from the previous elections' percentage of 52. This decline is attributed to various factors, including lack of even playing field to some political parties in the pre-elections phase, an Internet shutdown on polling day, harsh winter conditions, and security concerns.
The heart of the turmoil lies in controversy, with Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf accusing the Election Commission and state machinery of bias, a sentiment that gained momentum since his government was toppled in early 2022 through a vote of no confidence.
Pakistan’s economic and financial turmoil persisted, despite stabilisation efforts by powerful quarters in the post-PTI government. The 2024 elections, instead of heralding stability, resulted in a split mandate, leaving no party capable of forming a strong government. The establishment’s efforts to suppress PTI not only failed but also backfired, exacerbating the situation rather than resolving it. This persistence in employing the same failed strategies to overturn the people’s mandate for PTI underscores a lack of adaptability and learning from past mistakes. Invoking a well-known adage, it emphasises the critical flaw in handling crises and challenges – the tendency to double down on ineffective strategies.
In the post elections phase, Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl, Sindh’s Grand Democratic Alliance, Jamaat-e-Islami, and some other smaller groups have also joined in calling the polls a farce exercise. Some have already started protests, while others have announced plans for protests in the coming days, indicating a rise in political temperatures in the weeks and months ahead. The divided mandate has plunged the political landscape into chaos, surpassing the current leadership’s ability to manage.
Against all odds, PTI-backed independent candidates have secured 92 seats for the National Assembly, an overwhelming two-thirds majority in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Assembly and significant numbers in the Punjab Assembly, positioning PTI as a formidable opposition. The overwhelming victory of PTI in 2024 elections is seen as a statement against the powerful forces accused of orchestrating the country’s political landscape since its independence.
PTI has been exploring various options to prevent candidates backed by the party from defecting to other parties under coercion or incentives and secure its quota of reserved seats for the national assembly and provincial assemblies. It announced it would form an alliance with Majlis-e-Wahdatul Muslemin (MWM) in the centre and JI in K-P for this purpose.
PTI has not spelled out its strategy to achieve these objectives in other provinces, including Punjab, from where the process of PTI-endorsed candidates defecting to Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz has already begun. The party is approaching tribunals to get the seats it was denied through a controversial vote counting and result tabulation mechanism adopted to alter the results. It is planning to approach superior judiciary for remedial measures including getting party’s identity back for its newly elected lawmakers.
The denial of PTI's representation could lead to severe political turmoil. A potential coalition government led by PML-N, encompassing Pakistan Peoples Party, Muttahida Qaumi Movement, Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid and various other smaller groups in the centre, seems a fragile idea for long-term stability, given the daunting challenges of economic stagnation, an energy crisis, hyperinflation, security issues, and unprecedented foreign policy challenges. The country is set to enter another International Monetary Fund programme from April this year as the current bailout package ends. The new programme would entail further austerity measures and steps to generate more revenue, leading to a potential increase in inflation.
Amidst these challenges, the incoming coalition government of Shehbaz Sharif – the PML-N is touting him as the next prime minister with the support of other partners with their own varied interests and ideologies – could result in an ineffective government, exacerbating instability. The precarious political landscape may inadvertently serve the interests of the establishment, deepening its influence over state institutions, but it would not bode well either for the country or democracy. The international community, including the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union and other international and national organisations that have an eye on events unfolding in Pakistan, has expressed concerns over infringements on democratic principles.
The ongoing impasse, marked by allegations of manipulation, defections, and the establishment’s overreach, not only tests Pakistan’s political fabric but also presents an opportunity for introspection and reform. For the nation to thrive it must foster an environment where political discourse is driven by policy, not power plays; where governance is inclusive, not coerced; and where the voices of its citizens shape its destiny.
The recent elections in Pakistan have catalysed a monumental shift, challenging the traditional elitist stronghold on politics and signalling a move towards a more inclusive and democratic electoral landscape. This departure from the past, where political success was often synonymous with wealth, lineage, and the backing of the ‘establishment’, hints at a new era. By disrupting the age-old dynamics of vote trading and elite dominance, these elections suggest a shift where the collective voice of the broader society — encompassing the poor, the middle class, and the educated — can significantly influence political discourse and outcomes. Reflecting a more diverse and equitable representation of its people’s aspirations, the electoral outcomes challenge and overturn a deeply ingrained narrative. The narrative that a political party like PTI, bereft of ‘electables’, estranged from establishment backing, and faced with opposition from state institutions, would inevitably falter and face obliteration. Contrary to these expectations, the elections have emphatically demonstrated that it is possible for a party to secure victory without the traditional pillars of establishment support. This breakthrough is particularly poignant, highlighting that individuals from the poorer segments, the middle class, and the educated populace can achieve electoral success without resorting to vast financial resources or leveraging influential connections.
It also brings home one important outcome: any party that aligns itself with undemocratic assumptions will not go unpunished. PML-N during the PDM coalition, using undemocratic means to beat its opponent, serves as a stark reminder of the consequences of such actions. This can be a lesson for all the major political parties who served as stooges of powerful quarters in the past and are all willing to do the same once again. Maulana Fazlur Rehman who was part and parcel of previous dispensation under PDM has rejected the outcome of the general elections, and announced to sit on opposition benches in the centre and strive to ensure that mandate of people is respected. It is yet to be seen if his stance is coming from a change of heart, or it is yet another machination to achieve short term political gains.
However, an evolution towards a merit-based political system, less tethered to patronage and elitism, heralds a promising future for Pakistan’s democratic institutions and the fabric of its society, if taken as a silver lining from this month's elections. The path chosen will not only define Pakistan's democratic credentials but also shape its legacy in history. The essence of democracy, as highlighted by these events, lies in the will of the people and the integrity of its institutions.
Irfan Ghauri is a senior journalist and seasoned communications specialist. His forte lies in current affairs and political analysis
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