He was in jail. His party was deprived of its iconic election symbol. The party could not even hold any election rallies. It was denied a level-playing field. The party leadership was also either in jail, like its chief, or in hiding. All institutions and political parties were against him. He was convicted in one case after the other just days before the general elections. The purpose? To make people believe that he was morally and financially corrupt.
Yet, the people of Pakistan spoke resoundingly in favour of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and its founding chairman Imran Khan as independent candidates backed by the party made history by winning the majority of seats in the National Assembly – more than the seats of the largest party at federal level. In other words, the voters punished other parties and rejected the interference of the country’s powerful stakeholders in politics by exercising their right to franchise even though cellular services were suspended on election day.
However, soon after the polling concluded, it appeared that an embarrassing defeat was slowly morphed into a humiliating victory. The inordinate delay in announcing the results and possible manipulation left nothing to the imagination about the historic incompetence of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and the legacy that Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Sikandar Sultan Raja is leaving behind despite having all the time and resources in the world to ensure free, fair, transparent and secure polls. The consensus among almost all political pundits is that the CEC has failed. The caretaker government also played its part by contributing in what is being seen as a new chapter of political engineering. Yet, everyone from the prime minister to interim cabinet ministers hurriedly took credit of holding the ‘fairest’ polls in the country’s history.
The premier was so quick that he declared a high turnout just an hour after polling concluded on February 8. How, it seems, does not matter much. A blot is also evident on the newly-appointed interior minister’s performance as, despite suspending mobile phone services on election day, over a dozen people were killed and over two dozen others were injured in roughly 60 attacks across the country. All he took credit for was the claim that the violence could have been more had he not suspended mobile phone services; leaving people wondering if the government had any other strategy to overcome the situation other than the suspension.
The information minister also claimed credit for organising the ‘fairest, most peaceful’ polls in the face of the violence and what appeared to be a changing of results in favour of one party that was losing till 3am on election night but miraculously emerged as the single largest political party in the Centre and Punjab. It seems the people who had come out after 4am on election night massively supported the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, a social media user quipped after seeing the results drive in reverse gear a bit after the poll results on television screens showed that PTI was leading the contest for a majority of seats.
Although the polls were held on February 8 as promised by the Chief Justice of Pakistan Qazi Faez Isa, no one wished to have such tainted results because of the national poll body’s epic failure in delivering the results on time. Before the general elections, it was hoped that the polls would pave the path for political stability in the country, plagued, as it is, by economic and security challenges. However, the chances of this stability being reached in the near future now seem a distant dream as neither a single political party nor the PTI-backed independents have the simple majority to form a government.
Wheeling and dealing has already started on the political chessboard and, after testing peoples’ pulse in the polls, it is time for the elected representatives to show where they stand. It would soon be seen if ideology and their statements in the past meant anything to them or if the temptation to come to power by hook or by crook is too strong for principles.
After putting democracy to test in the polls, one thing is absolutely clear: the people of Pakistan have helped PTI-backed independent candidates flop all the plans, analyses, surveys and any other conjectures put forth in the run up to the elections. The political pundits, who were part of marathon election transmissions and expressed their views on different social media platforms, were not just left perplexed but admitted that the results were shocking for the powerful stakeholders as well.
Upsets usually come along with the poll results and this general election was no different. Several bigwigs of the political arena failed to retain their seats. However, what is more surprising in the political and electoral history of the country is that no political party or leader was ever able to prove all predictions wrong through the power of the ballot box. In the face of such a massive change, even PML-N Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed reflected that the results were probably “the biggest election upset in Pakistan’s political history in the last 50 years.” He stressed that it was extremely important that the ‘February 8 surprise’ be transformed into an opportunity for a much-needed ‘healing touch’ that reinforces national unity and stability by respecting the popular will and mandate of the people of Pakistan. “Repeating [the] mistake of 2018 polls, when Election Commission’s RTS suddenly conked off before midnight, with results withheld,” he posted on social media platform X, “would be a recipe for disaster!”
Eminent scholar Professor Dr Hassan Askari while talking to The Express Tribune said that the way people have stood by PTI was unprecedented and has never happened in Pakistan. The professor noted that PTI got votes primarily for three reasons: the commitment of young voters with the leadership – Imran Khan –; the haunting of Imran and his party translating into a sympathy vote; and the negative sentiments about establishment’s policies and interference in political domain. “It’s significant and unprecedented that people have given exceptional support to PTI via the ballot box,” he said, “the step also indicates peoples’ disapproval of establishment’s policies being pursued.”
Dr Askari noted that while the army has a huge respect as a security force as well as a task-oriented organisation, the people have ‘rejected’ its role in the political domain. “The message via the vote is that unfair and unjust policies must not be pursued.” Though PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif was also in jail before the 2018 general elections, the professor recalled that the former PM’s party was not haunted like PTI. The PML-N, he pointed out, was able to contest those polls as a political party. As opposed to it, circumstances forced PTI to participate in the polls through independent candidates.
Though PTI-backed candidates have won the majority of National Assembly seats out of the total 266, it ironically is being deprived of reserve seats for women and non-Muslims under current circumstances due to the top court’s endorsement of the ECP decision to strip the party of its cricket bat election symbol right before the polls. Resultantly, the winning independents will have to seek other parties’ help to claim simple majority and a form government or leave the space for PML-N to do so with the help of other parties. The first scenario seems unlikely given PTI leadership’s reported statements that they will not be making an alliance with PML-N and PPP. Unless it changes its stance, the numbers show PML-N as the largest political party in the National Assembly, leaving it free to form what is being dubbed PDM 2.0.
Despite PTI’s belief that those who have won elections in the name of Imran Khan will not betray him, PML-N hopes that several independents would join it, allowing the ‘lion’ to come into power even though it fell prey to hubris again. Strange as it may seem, PML-N has claimed victory despite the success of Imran Khan’s loyalists because the PTI is not a political party right now on paper.
While the much-delayed elections are finally over, the situation still remains fluid. Since it is mandatory under the law to decide if PTI-backed candidates want to join a party or otherwise within 72 hours after the poll results are officially announced, a winter sale of elected representatives seems to be in the offing. In Dr Askari’s words, though the people have spoken in favour of PTI and given it a mandate, it still seems difficult for the party to form a government in the Centre as the powerful stakeholders have not yet hung up their gloves.