Will the Captain go down with his ship?
Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf is falling like a deck of cards. The tactic of arresting the party’s leaders over and over again, and ensuring that their freedom exists only from the barracks up to the prison gate, appears to be working as key PTI figures parted ways with the party one after the other.
Seemingly, however, the move to quit PTI has one unspoken condition: the person should condemn the May 9 vandalism of government and military installations before saying adios to the party. The only other constant that has so far been seen in the news conferences and statements of the PTI leaders before they say goodbye is that they are leaving of their own accord and without any pressure from anyone; a statement that appears to be a white lie, to say the least.
Since Imran Khan’s ouster as prime minister in April 2022 but before May 9 this year, PTI leaders and workers had declared that arresting PTI supremo was tantamount to crossing a ‘red line’. Time and again, they successfully prevented the ex-premier’s arrest by physically forming a human barricade between Imran and the officials of the law enforcement agencies. The phrase “Reach Zaman Park” – Imran’s residence in Lahore – would begin trending on social media and party leaders would call workers and activists to reach the destination so that the PTI chief could be protected.
Just like courts usually grant bail to accused persons without touching the merits of the case, PTI leaders and supporters defended Imran for months without allowing anyone to touch him regardless of the merits of the cases. Tired of being pushed back, the Rangers decided on May 9 to arrest Imran from the premises of the Islamabad High Court (IHC) when he had reached there to get bail in an alleged multi-billion graft case, concerning the Al-Qadir trust.
The windows of the biometric branch of IHC were broken; the former premier was dragged from his wheel-chair, made to walk before being thrown in a vehicle, which then sped away from IHC premises. The imaginary red line was crossed.
PTI leaders and workers took to the streets; attacked the Generals Headquarters in Rawalpindi, ransacked and torched the residence of the Corps Commanders Lahore, burned down the Radio Pakistan building in Peshawar, among several other key buildings, installations and state symbols in different cities.
In doing so, another red line was crossed as the writ of the state as well as the invincibility of the army was challenged. They both swung into action; a nod was given by the Corps Commanders Conference, the National Security Committee (NSC) and the federal cabinet to try May 9 attackers under the Army and Official Secrets acts; the law enforcers started taking PTI leaders and workers into custody and, in order to break their spirits, it was ensured that they would not walk free even if the courts grant bail to them.
The list of those leaving PTI is increasing with each passing day. Initially, it was thought that some bigwigs would not abandon the party. But key leaders like Asad Umar, Fawad Chaudhry, Shireen Mazari, Maleeka Bokhari, among others, didn’t take much time to say goodbye to PTI in exchange for release from jails.
Some PTI leaders are still resisting but for some others it took three-to-five arrests to condemn May 9 violence and announce that they were leaving PTI by addressing news conferences right after they were released from jails. Some others disassociated themselves from Imran and PTI without even being arrested and spending a single day in jail. In a tit-for-tat move, Imran canceled their membership and kicked them out from the party’s WhatsApp groups; sending a clear ‘take that’ message.
Surprising as it may seem, these leaders had vowed to fight for Haqiqi Azadi (real freedom) until recently. They made party workers and activists believe that this real freedom was within their grasp and that they should all fight till the last ball. But, they themselves haven’t been able to stand by with their leader or his ideology as a few of them left PTI while crying before TV cameras. A few others even leveled serious allegations against Imran before quitting.
At a time when PTI workers are in jails and just after the party had completed its Jail Bharo Tehreek (fill the prison movement) some of its leaders are hiding while others were seen running to courts to take refuge. Some others said that it was difficult to bear scorching heat of May in jail while some others left political careers citing health and family issues. Surprisingly, it is still unclear how all those quitting PTI are instantly released from prison the moment they agree to leave party.
As the exodus of PTI leaders continues, political experts while expressing dismay at the culture of arson and vandalism see the mass departures as fractionalisation of the former ruling party and an attempt to remove Imran Khan from the political chess board. PTI leaders as well as senators are leaving the party one after the other while leaving the space open for the ruling alliance in and outside the parliament at a time when elections are seemingly just around the corner. The political experts also recall that although PTI is not the first party which is facing the full force of the state and the establishment, what the party has done to draw their ire has not happened in past. They say that politicians have fought against establishment but never directly attacked military installations or challenged the institutional military.
Though the PTI chairman sees the exodus as “forced divorces” at “gunpoint”, political experts suggest that it is an attempt to factionalise PTI just like PML-N was converted into PML-Q overnight at the turn of the last century. “Without beating around the bush, this is obviously the result of pressure coming from the establishment. The government is simply fanning it,” former PPP senator Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar said, who had himself paid the price of continuously speaking up on human rights violations, especially of the PTI leaders, before being asked to leave the PPP. He said that the current practice of pressuring politicians to leave politics wasn’t pleasing. Nevertheless, dry-cleaning is in full swing; arrests, jails, tears, press conferences, tweets and statements are proving to be the detergents when simple truth should be enough to come clean.
The incumbent rulers, Khokhar added, shouldn’t take pleasure in opponents’ departure from political arena. “This doesn’t bode well for politics in general and those who are beaming at it today will surely regret it tomorrow.” On the whirlwind of arrests and continuous pressure from the powerful quarters, the former senator said that “only time will tell if the PTI survives this”, adding that the political parties had survived in the past. “The PML-N overnight converted into the PML-Q if we recall, but Nawaz Sharif is still a political reality today,” Khokhar said, adding that deeper in the past, the PPP went through a similar phase. However, he added, the culture of arson and vandalism must be discouraged and the PTI and its workers had much to learn from other parties.
The Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT) President Ahmed Bilal Mehboob said that the most PTI leaders are under pressure, adding that some might have genuinely disliked what happened on May 9. “The idea probably is to cripple or factionalise the PTI so that it is no more a potent political force,” the PILDAT chief said. To the questions what seems to be the final objective of this drive and who would benefit the most, Mehboob said: “I don’t think anybody will benefit from these acts unless political action goes hand in hand with administrative and punitive actions.”
Renowned lawyer and political commentator, Abdul Moiz Jaferii, says the recent spate of resignations and leavings from the PTI can be divided into two groups. “One consists of journeymen politicians whose primary loyalties belonged to the establishment, and were in the PTI due to their alignment,” he said, “Their withdrawal is natural and a simple sign of the times as it was when they were joining the party in droves.”
The political expert said that the second set consists of politicians who, after suffering various degrees of state coercion, are supposedly choosing to part ways with the PTI. Jaferii said that the coercive intent of the state is out for all to see and it is commented on by judges whilst adjudicating cases where their orders prove ineffective – he was referring to PTI leaders’ cases where they were released on court orders but arrested again from prison gates until they decided to leave PTI. Jaferii said that it is not an unprecedented turn of events as parties have in the past broken paths with the establishment in what has always looked at the time to be an irreparable fashion. “These parties have always gone on to find success at the ballot box,” he said, “whenever the immediate anger of the establishment abates and the next elections come around.”
Jaferii maintained that with the current median age in the country hovering under 24; and there being 18 million voters who will have the ability to exercise their right to vote for the first time in the next elections; having been underage before this opportunity; “it is very difficult to see the success of status quo forces at any public ballot.” People are suffering under back-breaking inflation and the economy is tottering with little improvement or promise on the horizon, he said, adding if any party which seems to stand against the status quo today can keep itself together; it will benefit in the long run.
“The federal government seems a willing participant in the ongoing crackdown,” Jaferii continued, saying “the political parties that form the coalition clearly see Imran Khan to be an existentialist threat.” To him, “the buck of history will stop not with the usual suspects who do this every time they’re tired of a project; but with the civilians who abet their designs.” Jaferii feels that Imran has also failed the most recent tests of leadership by failing to lead by example and failing to take responsibility for the illegal hooliganism of his supporters. “He is paying a heavy price,” he said, “but perhaps a necessary one in Pakistan’s story of democratic evolution.”
He sees that the final objective of the current drive against PTI is pretty clear; “that Imran Khan be removed as a force from the political chess board.” This is happening before us, he said, one piece at a time. Whilst this will make the next elections a much bigger challenge for his party logistically and in terms of administration, he said that he didn’t see it impacting his popularity as long as he can get his name and symbol on the ballot paper, whenever the people are allowed to see them.
Pakistan, being on the verge of default, is currently awaiting two things: revival of IMF program and polls as both are going further away whenever tried to bring closer. In January this year, Imran ordered to dissolve Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies in an attempt to force elections on the federal government but failed. Imran had hoped that elections would take place within 90 days after the dissolution of the assemblies and since the constitutional limit of 90 days can’t be crossed, the PML-N-led ruling alliance would be forced to go for elections. However, it didn’t happen.
As the number of cases against Imran as well as his appearances before the courts started increasing amid his anti-government and anti-establishment narrative, he further pushed for elections by taking the matter to the Supreme Court. The top court’s intervention, however, hasn’t yet led to polls in provinces as the matter is still pending despite the 90-day period has lapsed. Meanwhile, three rounds of talks also held between the government and PTI leaders but ended at stalemate as both sides couldn’t agree on the date of elections. The National Assembly’s tenure would be completed in August and elections are expected to take place in October, as announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan. On the one hand, the government was busy delaying polls while, on the other hand, Imran was in a hurry and didn’t want to wait till October. It all resulted in confrontation and chaos. For a moment, it felt that it was between government & establishment versus Supreme Court and PTI but then May 9 happened and things suddenly changed.
Eminent political analyst, Zaigham Khan, while commenting on the matter shared that the story begins from the vote of no confidence back in April 2022. When the vote of no confidence against Imran was being executed, he said, Imran had two choices; one choice was available to him as it was available to all the political leaders before him: to sit on opposition benches and use all his weight. “Imran Khan could have made a very strong opposition in the parliament but Imran Khan being Imran Khan, preferred to quit parliamentary politics and tried to impose a solution of his choice on the government,” Zaigham said. Problems started from this point, he added, saying Imran started building the kind of narrative through which he slowly and gradually went into a conflict with the state and the military.
The way Imran used to incite his party workers was evident back in May last year but that incitement had reached a new level against the government, all political parties and the politicians, who were not in PTI after May 25, 2022, march. All kinds of allegations were hurled against the opponents, he said, adding the opponents’ homes, families, their faith were all targeted and questioned. In fact, he continued, opponents of PTI were called anti-Islam and anti-Pakistan besides being called corrupts. “I mean there was hardly any allegation that was not hurled on them,” Zaigham said. “He [IK] kept repeating that he would not spare them [opponents],” he recalled, saying “the role of a soldier that Imran Khan was given since 2016”; which continued during his government as well; was in motion and he wanted to keep it with him using the force of his mobs.
Then things reached to a logical conclusion and Imran crossed a very important red line, Zaigham said, saying this red line was not of the establishment as politicians keep fighting with the establishment and continue to bear the brunt of it but Imran crossed the red line of institutional military. Elaborating further, Zaigham said that establishment basically refers to the generals’ political role while the institutional military means Pakistan’s defence forces. “Pakistani politicians have always remained at odds with the establishment because either there is martial law in Pakistan or the country is going through a democratic transition,” he said, “in both the cases, their conflict is natural with the establishment.” However, politicians always make sure that they should not directly confront the institutional military, he said, saying small parties like PTM have taken their fight from establishment to institutional military but big political parties have never taken their battles with the establishment to institutional military. “But,” he said, “Imran Khan did it.”
As a result of the incitement as well as planning to some extent, he said, they attacked military installations and residences as well as desecrated the symbols of the state. “He [Imran] has come into a very serious conflict with the state and the military,” Zaigham said. He opined that establishment did not want to come in direct confrontation with Imran keeping his popularity in view, saying history also shows that establishment always gives way when a political party reaches to such level of popularity.
“To keep their institutional interests intact, establishment go for some kind of a deal with such popular party and never comes in its way,” Zaigham said, “we have seen it time and again; in PPP’s case as well as PML-N’s case.” He personally believed that establishment would have given way to Imran to return to power this time around as well but whatever happened on May 9, Imran sort of turned himself into another Altaf Hussain – the founder of Mutahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) – and thereby he turned his party into another MQM, which was blown into smithereens not so long ago. “Now,” he said, “popularity did not matter.”
From establishment and military’s point of view, Zaigham said, the important thing is the state. “Now,” he said, “he [Imran] is facing full force of the state. Whatever is happening is not over yet; it’s still at early stages but its ramifications would be immense.” He maintained that “it’s PTI’s 1977”, saying the PPP faced difficulties after 1977’s coup but PTI might face the same or more because PPP hadn’t done anything against the state or military back then. “Imran Khan will have to create a new party from ashes if he is able to get time and opportunity,” Zaigham said.
He noted that Imran’s popularity saved him not only from different cases but allowed him to continue confronting the establishment while staying behind the red line. At the most Imran would have been disqualified, he said, arguing his popularity might have saved him from going to jail. But now, he added, things have gone beyond cases and things are extremely difficult for him. “Only time will tell what happens next and where things move from here on,” he said, “but one thing is clearly evident, PTI will not be in a strong position in the coming elections provided its allowed to contest;” predicting its performance will be lackluster in the next elections and PTI will not be in a position to form the next government.
While raising several questions like what happens afterwards; will PTI make a comeback; what will be Imran’s future; will he go to jail; will he be allowed to go abroad under a deal once incarcerated; where will he be allowed to go, Zaigham said that he would only speculate to the extent that Imran would be handed down some sort of sentence and if he is allowed to go abroad then he would only be sent to any gulf country and not to US or UK because of his connections over there.
In the past few weeks, the significant thin red lines were crossed. What is sad and painful is that the party leaders, who enjoyed key positions in the party and government, are leaving PTI in flocks but the party workers, who believed every word that was hammered into them through tweets, statements, speeches, addresses and WhatsApp groups, are languishing in jails and facing trials in anti-terrorism courts as well as military courts. Careers ruined; families destroyed; sense of deprivation prevailed but no is there to listen to the workers anymore; it’s time to learn a few lessons, to say the least.