Monsoon intensity in the upcoming months will be on the mild side. Areas expecting rain will not experience losses comparable to previous years, however, precautionary arrangements are being made due to unusual climate patterns worldwide.
Addressing a group of journalists at the Prime Minister’s Secretariat, National Disaster Management Authority Chairman Major General Muhammad Saeed Aleem shared national efforts for monsoon preparedness discussed with provincial governments during the recently held two-day national conference on June 30 and July 1.
According to the chairman, the meeting brought forward key issues relating to previous disasters, preparedness for the year and the future were discussed in detail.
While sharing the recent Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD) seasonal report, he said the emerging climatic features linked to El Nino development have fairly large potential to suppress the Monsoon this year.
According to the preliminary estimates of the PMD, the amount of rainfall from July to September may be moderately below normal in Sindh, Balochistan and southern Punjab while nearly normal rainfall is expected in north Punjab, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir.
Comparing the situation to previous years, Aleem said that last year water levels had increased in all rivers across Pakistan however the loss calculated was not as severe as 2010. He said that the region under conflict is usually not a concern during monsoon, however, plans to facilitate internally displaced persons have been discussed.
He said that for further protection, NDMA has developed a ten-year plan but for implementation of the fourth national flood protection plan, resources would be needed for successful implementation.
The National Monsoon Contingency Plan would be finalized and shared with all the stakeholders in first week of July. Moreover, request has been sent to the Pakistan Commission for Indus Water to share information with the provinces according to the treaty.
Aleem informed that the policy for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) adopted in 2013 must be complied with to decrease the risk of losses for which NDMA in consultation with Planning Commission of Pakistan has developed a checklist that builders must consider for construction.
Aleem suggested to the provincial governments to appoint a focal person for better coordination with the media.
NDMA Member Operations Brig Mirza Kamran Zia shared that the district plans had been completed provincial and regional level and presentations of plans will be shared with the prime minister soon.
Met-office informed that “monsoon trough” is very likely to develop in coming few days that will activate onset of monsoon during first week of July.
First spell of regular monsoon rains will be confined to upper parts of the country, producing scattered rain and thundershowers over Islamabad, upper Punjab, upper K-P and Kashmir during Tuesday to Thursday.
Some isolated heavy falls are also expected in Hazara, Rawalpindi, Gujranwala divisions, Kashmir and Islamabad during the spell.
Scanty rains are predicted in plains during the month of July and erratic rains with few extreme events in the upper parts of K-P, Punjab and Kashmir.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 2nd, 2014.
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