ISLAMABAD:
The US-India nuclear deal and talk of ballistic missile defence systems are “negative developments for regional stability,” Chinese researcher Hou Hongyue said on Wednesday.
Hongyue, a research fellow at the Chinese People’s Association for Peace and Disarmament, a non-governmental body, was speaking at the opening session of a conference on “Nuclear Deterrence and Emerging Dynamics in South Asia”, according to a press release.
The three-day conference is being organised by the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) University (SASSI) to analyse the challenges to deterrence stability of South Asia, developments in nuclear doctrines and role of short-range ballistic missiles, it stated.
Hongyue said China does not consider India a threat but the international community must act responsibly.
In her inaugural speech, the university’s director-general Dr Maria Sultan, said South Asia is confronted by challenges including new, ambitious “limited war fighting concepts” of the Indian military, according to the release.
Sultan said there has also been a massive increase in India’s conventional defence spending, which has pushed the region towards “perpetual instability.”
Sultan said India’s Cold Start military doctrine, developed to be used in case of war with Pakistan, together with “massive militarisation” gives India the capability to increase the level of the arms race in South Asia. This will also raise the level of minimum deterrence stability in the region.
She said Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence strategy is a response measure against evolving threats. The strategy includes as its key elements a short range ballistic missile system.
Dr Pervez Iqbal Cheema, Dean of the National Defence University’s faculty of contemporary studies, said serious threats from its eastern border led Pakistan to develop nuclear deterrent capability.
Lt-Gen (retd) Sikandar Afzal said the discriminatory policies relating to nuclear cooperation pursued by some major powers were creating insecurity and Pakistan had been compelled to take a stand against nuclear exceptionalism, selectivity and discrimination.
Masood Khan Khattak, visiting research fellow, said that Indian military modernisation is step towards operationalisation cold start doctrine and to achieve regional hegemony.
Adnan Bukhari, visiting research Fellow SASSI, stated that developments of tactical nuclear weapon along with the cruise missile are of significant vitality for Pakistan’s security.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 15th, 2014.
COMMENTS (7)
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India is not a threat to China, but China IS a threat to India. India has never attacked any country.
Indo-US nuclear deal has many negative aspects on the region as well it as a loop hole in the Nuclear non-proliferation regime, allowing a non-signed NPT state a civil nuclear deal. 8 Indian nuclear power plants are exempted from the IAEA safeguards that allows India to stockpile the nuclear fissile material. Nuclear fissile material can produce more nuclear warheads that will increase the balance of nuclear weapons in the region and nuclear deterrence. The US has taken a flawed policy step towards making India a nuclear deal and now it is its responsibility to correct what did wrong in order to maintain the regional balance. Otherwise it will simply back fire in the changing international power politics and military spending of states.
Chinese ambassador rightly pointed out that the 123 agreement between India and United States has been instrumental in destabilizing regional peace and stability.
Each Indo-Pakistan crisis implies increased tensions, tit-for-tat brinkmanship, and an inherent risk of escalation. The obstacles to progress are clear but the will on either side is nonexistent. They have managed the past crises but fortune may not work every time. A permanent peace cannot be achieved through conflict containment and management through third party. This is also very true that military developments on Indian side and also favors are further para-mounting the already volatile region. Tit for tat strategy is clearly visible in the context of India and Pakistan where India initiated and Pakistan later on responded to its action. it is the collective responsibility of the international community to come forward and help this region in resolving their outstanding disputes. The prescriptions for arms control and CBMs must be fully cognizant of the structural obstacles to their agreement and implementation and must focus on addressing those obstacles.
South Asian nukes are largely determined under the parameters of deterrence in order to address the complex tensed environment of the region. But the steady level of nuclear deterrence has largely been questioned in the backdrop of Indian military modernization and expansionist moves. The Cold Start Doctrine which has been glamorized under the title of Proactive Doctrine itself indicated to go for limited conventional attack on Pakistan. This obviously directed Pakistan to devise counter mechanisms to counter such kind of threats against its statehood. Nuclear deterrence in fact endures regional stability but it can be less futile in context of arms race which mainly triggered by India.
Pakistan is a blessed country with capability far advanced than many in these regimes.b. International community ignores what Pakistan has to take into account as strategic calculus which is the aggressive strategic developments in the region by India.Along with that NSG membership to India will have serious implications in the region. Furthermore, it will bring Challenges to arms control, disarmament and all the proliferation regimes.NSG is seen as the most important export control regime. It was established as a reaction to nuclear explosions of India in 1974. Non proliferation has been the main objective of Pakistan. Pakistan has ensured enforcement of export controls through different arrangements. Pakistan has been an active partner in global nonproliferation efforts. NSG should follow an objective and criteria based approach in giving its card to any country including Pakistan and India.
Chinese missile transfer to Pakistan through North Korea has been a major source of stabilization not just for South Asia but for the whole world. Kudos.