Musharraf saga: A civil-military partnership

Pervez Musharraf is hopping mad at the government’s decision to try him for treason for imposing the 2007 emergency. So he thought of putting the fear of army in the hearts of the civilian leadership by telling it how the army will not tolerate his humiliation. He must appreciate the nuances and understand that his definition of humiliation might now be a bit different from the current military leadership’s.

It is a fact that the former army chief is right when he boasts about the army backing him. This is certainly true as far as his security is concerned. He has been craftily protected from the humiliation of presenting himself in the court very frequently. He has also been saved from the slur, abuses and shoe-throwing by the rowdy lawyer brigade.

Musharraf is conscious of the fact that the men of the Pakistan Army like him. Compared with the generals who are seen as less decisive, he was brash and much more willing to stand up for the acts of omission or commission of his men. Musharraf had to show that he stood for his men, an attitude which is liked by men who have become used to the power of their institution. His popularity did not mean that some of his men would not oppose his policies as far as giving concessions to the US and India is concerned.

However, no straight lines can be drawn in understanding the situation. The existing military leadership also has to conform to the requirements of changing times. It would not be in the military’s interest to protect Musharraf excessively or overtly. The rules of the game, as far as the presentation of civil-military relations in Pakistan are concerned, have changed. It took several years after Musharraf for General Kayani and his team to rebuild the military’s image which had plummeted in the last days of the former’s rule. They have indeed rearranged the chessboard in a manner that nothing appears how it actually is in reality.

Predicting civil-military relations in Pakistan is no longer an easy task because there are now so many intervening layers that are inserted to deflect attention in another direction and in a manner that makes reality look different. We are told that since the country now has an independent media and judiciary, there is this element of civilian supremacy which is respected even by the armed forces. The fact that the former army chief and his chief spook gave several presentations to the parliament is presented as an indicator of how the GHQ has surrendered to the idea of civilian supremacy. Interestingly, the dominant narrative created to explain the civil-military shift or strengthening of democracy rarely admits to the fact that a large part in the process was played by imperfect political leaders like Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif.

Most analyses hurriedly eulogise General Kayani for facilitating the change. We are made to believe that the army chief was very kind in not imposing military rule despite the inefficiencies of the political governments. But why do we imagine that a military general is always in a hurry to take over power, especially if he can get things done to his taste without going to the forefront? Over the past couple of decades, the civilians have probably understood the military’s threshold a bit better. They have understood that generals intervene only when the interests of the high command and the officer cadre in general are violated. The stories of an action becoming imperative due to national interests are then spun around the action.

The civilian leadership has understood what buttons not to press that would annoy the generals. What happens with Musharraf is part of this new reality. The civilian government would probably go through the motions of a trial and try to leave the ball in the Supreme Court’s court. Will the judges use their newly acquired moral courage to take the case to its natural conclusion is a big question to which there are no clear answers.

The court’s recent decision to provide a safe exit to the Frontier Corps IG in the missing persons’ case might be an indicator of how it will proceed in this one. Furthermore, the fate of the Asghar Khan case is another indicator that the muck will eventually get thrown at the politicians and the two generals involved in it will only have to face the embarrassment of keeping silent.

If wishes were horses, one would like the aforementioned trials to be conducted seriously. However, it doesn’t seem that the various stakeholders are prepared to go the whole hog. But this also does not mean that the former dictator should feel smug and not appreciate the sensitivity of the new era in which appearances have to be kept. It would serve him better not to open his mouth too often and think that not getting punished can be used as a personal political dividend. This time, it is not the civilians, but a retired army general who is risking things for everyone.

The writer is an independent social scientist and the author of Military Inc. 

Published in The Express Tribune, January 3^rd, 2014.

______________________________________________________________

 [poll id="1283"]