The writer is a columnist. He is also a former editor of the Mumbai-based English newspaper Mid Day and the Gujarati paper Divya Bhaskar
aakar.patel@tribune.com.pk
The party is poised for a remarkable debut in politics, if recent opinion polls are accurate. The latest one shows the party picking up 18 of Delhi’s 70 seats, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress winning 25 and 24, respectively.
Another poll shows the AAP taking 15 per cent of the vote and winning 18 seats in the assembly. This was compared with the BJP’s 28 and the Congress’s 22. A third poll says the AAP will get 11 seats, with the BJP and the Congress taking 29 and 26, respectively. This poll gives the AAP an even higher vote share of 21 per cent. This is a surprise and many observers, including me, had not expected such a strong performance from a new party against the two giants of Indian politics.
The polls are bad news for the BJP in Delhi because they see the voter split three ways in what has always been a two-party state. Dissatisfaction with the Congress, which has ruled Delhi for a decade and a half, should normally result in a sweep for the BJP in the capital. However, the intrusion of the AAP into the field means that the BJP is expected to have a very narrow margin of victory, if it wins a majority at all. Some internal problems, publicised recently, concerning squabbling by chief ministerial contenders have not helped the party either.
But the big story of the rise of the AAP is that it is excellent news for prime ministerial aspirant Narendra Modi and his strategic planners. Why do I say this? The fact is that despite its proletarian name, the AAP is a party of the middle class. Its primary issue, that of state corruption, is something which, though it concerns all Indians, mainly makes the middle class angry. It is the morchas and hunger strikes against corruption, and in favour of a totalitarian Lok Pal, that made the AAP popular.
If such a party, on the basis of such a platform, can win a large chunk of urban votes, so can Modi. This is because one crucial aspect of the appeal of the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate is aimed at the sort of person who is excited by the AAP. This aspect is built around a non-communal theme around issues like corruption and nepotism, better management of the economy through encouraging the corporate sector and a firm and tough position on the borders against China and Pakistan. All of these may be seen as urban, middle class issues and the things for which Modi is believed by many to be the perfect executor.
It has long been believed by psephologists, sociologists and commentators, that elections in India are totally dominated by caste and not issues. This is the reason why the Congress might sweep one state, say Andhra Pradesh, and in the same election, get hammered in an adjoining state like Karnataka.
The projection of vote share and seats for the AAP indicates that for many people, in urban India at least, the decision will be on the basis of issues rather than identity. This is something that will change the way all politics is done in India and at the moment, the person best positioned to take advantage of it is Modi.
The Congress swept urban India in 2009. It cleaned up Delhi, Mumbai and Hyderabad while its allies swept Kolkata and Chennai. It was only in Bangalore where the Yedyurappa-led BJP defeated the Congress.
If the opinion polls are right about the AAP, we are in line for a total reversal of fortunes for the BJP in the metros. This is why, despite the BJP’s concerns about the way in which Delhi will swing, its leader will be delighted with the way things are going for his 2014 campaign.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 10th, 2013.
Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.
COMMENTS (15)
Comments are moderated and generally will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive.
For more information, please see our Comments FAQ
@C. Nandkishore:
You are hugely underestimating people's power just like Govt. underestimated Anna Hazare when he set on Ramleela maidan. Its okay, some people always want proof so, you just sit back, watch and wait till December 8.
How it is people's party ?? well just go to aamadmiparty.org and see how and who are the people donating. There is also list of events just attend one and see who are the people attending.
Elections are never won by good intentions. Elections are a numbers game and it requires an understanding of how to achieve the given numbers to win in both urban and rural centres. Making popularity translate into votes is a task harder than it appears......the PTI of Imran Khan is a recent example of this.
@antanu: I would be fascist anyday than an Islamist..........
Sitting and watching this tamasha in India, I can confidently predict that AAP will hold some sway only in Delhi. AAP is hardly a national phenomenon. Let them come to cities like Hyderabad and Bangalore where the Lok Satta party has been trying very hard for many years to win elections with not much success. Bear in mind also that AAP has benefited by infighting within the BJP's Delhi unit.
Sometimes I wonder if the hype generated about AAP is the same as the one for Chiranjeevi's Praja Rajyam party in 2009. After all the polls and analysis showing Praja Rajyam winning in a landslide, it managed to eke out only 18 out of the 294 seats in AP in 2009.
@sid:
Certainly its not the fascist MODI....
Nice to see a discussion on India in a Pakistan based newspaper. The world is changing fast; leaders on both sides should also realize the same at the earliest possible for the betterment of a large chunk of world population.
A Peshawary
I don't understand the connection. The same urban India voted for the Congress in 2009 (a majority of the 160 seats), largely not on the basis of caste/ religion, but because they felt that the UPA-1 had done a reasonable job and deserved a second chance, and the BJP which was in total disarray at that time, could not mount an effective challenge. The current situation is different with the Congress on the back foot, so splitting of anti-Congress votes will not benefit the BJP. Consequently no, the Aam Aadmi Party is not good news for the BJP, but it is very much a Delhi-specific phenomenon and I agree with @C. Nandakishore's point about organization (and money) being more important.
I beg to differ. Opinion polls in India are flawed for the reason that their sample size is miniscule. The most important thing that matters is organisation. The party that has the best organisation wins the polls. Organisation takes one generation to build. AAP may win one or two seats. Witness how the hugely popular Imran Khan could win only 3 seats in the Punjab. Simply NS was better organized.
Dear Aakar Ahmed Patel, though I agree with you but you have discounted the reaction of voters on Kejriwal’s recent hobnobbing with Tauqeer Raza Khan a notorious cleric from Bareilly for soliciting Muslim votes for the Aam Admi party in Delhi. This is not only a worst kind of vote-bank policy but has raised serious question on his party’s credibility – vis-à-vis putting ‘safety of women’ as an important issue on its agenda – especially when it turned out this was the same cleric, who had earlier issued a fatwa against Bagladeshi writer Taslima Nasreen to cut her head and get Re 500,000 prize from him. The cleric enjoys a minister's rank in the SP party government in UP and chips are down for the Samajvadi party in the eyes of non-Muslim voters.
One of the AAP leader Prashant Bhushan has been advocating India to hand over Kashmir to Pakistan to buy peace from Pakistan and earlier some inexperienced leaders of Aam Admi party toyed with the crazy idea that the price for consumer goods would be decided by the consumers in each locality of Delhi, defying the universal law of supply and demand.
BJP fortune is expected rise decisively after the two scheduled rallies in Delhi by Modi before the election.
@Author I am not able to understand your logic, as to why the rise of AAP in Delhi should benefit the BJP. In fact I think the BJP should be concerned that AAP will cut their votes in the general elections to come in 2014. Congress did not have any strong personality to counter Modi, but AAP has Mr. Arvind Kejriwal. Whether you like it or not, Arvind Kejriwal will become powerful if AAP wins a clear majority in the December, 2013 Delhi state elections.
The reason a large section of Indians will vote for Narendra Modi is simple - TINA (There Is No Alternative).
Giving another term for UPA is like suicide for India. There is no other credible alternative than BJP. And BJP was full of corrupt or discredited leaders. Swaraj was the godmother of Reddy Brothers (who looted over 50,000cr). Jaitley doesn't have credibility or a base. Advani/Joshi are spent forces. None of the other leaders have national appeal.
So, BJP's master stroke was making Modi their face. Though he is tainted by 2002 - He is a far better alternative than the rest. Effectively he has become the focal point of rally against congress.
As I read somewhere "Kejriwal by choice, Modi by No-choice".
Oh by the way if you believe Yogendra Yadav's survey which I do, AAP was getting 40 seats in delhi out of 70 seats in October. . http://www.hindustantimes.com/specials/coverage/myindia-myvote/chunk-ht-ui-myindiamyvote-delhi/kejriwal-trumps-dikshit-as-delhi-cm-choice-claims-aap-survey/sp-article10-1136818.aspx
Gr8 going AAP, we all Indians who have now become political aware have joined AAP movement, and making sure to keep the momentum and get more involved at grass root level, going above stupid caste, creed, religion politics.. And in time to come will replicate it across the country in whatever ever small way we can... This should be the beginning of the end of political families and some niche people who have for generations exploited ordinary citizen, in name of religion spreading false scare...
This is the interesting analysis and i agree with it. When it comes to Andhra, now it's changed as there are 4 different parties targeting different castes. Congress is no more going to win more than 10 maximum compared to 33 plus every-time.
There cannot be any govt worse than this one..........they have ruined the economy......hope India votes for development........everyone knows who can deliver that........