The death of TTP chief Hakimullah Mehsud in a drone attack one day ahead of the start of possible peace talks has led many to conclude that the United States is against any move for reconciliation. It also comes at a time when the withdrawal of US troops from this area in 2014.
Imran Khan has been quite vocal in his statements and has blamed the US government for consistently sabotaging any such initiatives in the past as well. His party has also threatened blocking NATO supplies to protest the killing.
The government, which had managed to cobble together a consensus for talks says that it will protest strongly to the US. Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, our hard working interior minister, says that ties with Washington will be reviewed.
Earlier progress on peace talks failed because of the death of a high-ranking military commander, Major General Sanaullah Niazi, in September. The Taliban claimed responsibility for that attack. Then in the same month, 78 people died in a suicide attack at a church in Peshawar. No one claimed responsibility.
Now Imran Khan has hinted that this may be the work of the hidden hand. If this is true, a possibility we may never be able to know for sure, one expects a fundamental shift in relations with Washington. More so because this can be cited as further proof that the US does not want peace within Pakistan.
This is a dangerous path to follow. Now every attack that remains unaccounted for will be blamed on the Americans. Possibly this puts the government of prime minister Nawaz Sharif in a quandary because his recently concluded trip to the US has yielded opportunities to work towards helping improve the state of our war-torn economy.
The question on everybody’s minds now is – what next? Will the government continue to push for peace talks? Possibly yes. Will the TTP respond with a resumption of dialogue? Again, a possible yes but we also know that there is a difference of opinion within the TTP over whether to talk peace with the government or not.
The first demand of that group is that drone attacks be stopped before any dialogue can take place. Given this, the key to resumption of talks once again is in the hands of others.
We are fearful that the TTP and other groups will seek revenge for the death of their leader. This will again lead to terror attacks within Pakistan. Already there is a somber mood prevailing, with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on high alert.
What options do we have? It is clear that peace should be given priority. Setting aside political differences, we should try and sort out issues in a manner that avoids bloodshed. One is tired of seeing dead bodies of innocent people – both civilians and military personnel – on both sides of the conflict.
Should we be thinking out of the box? Something like Musharraf’s points on resolving the Kashmir issue – which, incidently, weren’t even his but were credited to him so he could sell it better to his commanders. Is it time we gave some autonomy to some regions of the country as a concession to letting peace prevail.
The fact is that we are all tired of the conflict our country has been thrust in. It was initially not our war but now after thousands of deaths, it has become our own conflict. The problem is that we are squashed in between two or three parties. We are bearing the brunt of the fighting.
Should the starting point be the end of drone attacks? Or does that give the other side an upper hand? How does all this play into 2014, when American troops withdraw from Afghanistan.
As we know, Afghanistan will witness significant changes once the ISAF forces leave their country, leaving a token representation for boosting the morale of their Afghan allies. There is a feeling that once this happens, the focus of the action for the Taliban on either side of the border would move to that country.
The knives are already being sharpened to carve out spheres of influence between the regional powers. While China is mostly interested in economic cooperation with the post-2014 Afghanistan, other neighbours are looking at more meaningful gains. Time will tell who gets what.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 4th, 2013.
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COMMENTS (17)
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@faizaan: You appear to have misread the history of Afghans; these people are named Afghans since they recognise no ones authority or will over them. If you do not accept this feature of their culture then you will never come closer to them.
Zalmai, You have made a point which in my opinion has cultural and historical overtones. Could you throw some light on this?
Rex Minor
@ Faizaan
The Pakistani state narrative of Tajiks and their Indian masters in Afghanistan is a stale and outdated propaganda being peddled by ISPR.
No matter who is at the helm in Afghanistan, you can bet your bottom devalued rupee that Afghans unanimously and unequivocally oppose Pakistan and its dirty machinations.
The status quo in Afghanistan will be strengthened and solidified, especially after BSA is signed.
Afghans are just getting warmed up, and they are in no mood to allow regional geopolitics to derail the achievements of the last twelve years. Be warned, play at your own risk is the mantra in Afghanistan.
An excellent write by the author, it is indeed very impressive and one needs to read it more than once. I have not even read it but got the dflavour from commentries. The basic law of physics tells us that the world has been moving from order to disorder, we have not yet the machine to return to past but have the science to move into future but dare not since our return is not guaranteed. Before one goes into details, it is very easy to know what is very likely to occur in Afhanistan or Pakistan for that matter once the occpaton forces leave. There will be a Euphoria of course similar to the one which was experienced in the Indian subcontinent and in recent history in Iraq!!
Rex Minor
We have to accept that this whole mess was created by our policy-makers. Please don't blam others. This is our mess and we have to clean it our self and with the help of US and Afghan authorities. Just imagine if there is no peace in Afghanistan, afte the US withdrawal what would happen to our border regions. The terrorists would make safe haven there and will keep us under constant attacks. We all must must work together to bring peace in the whole region and must avoid supporting any particular groups in Afghanistan.
@ x Whether US failed or not is not relevant. The quagmire created by their WOT has created multi-faceted problems for Pakistan. Unless Nawaz Sharif (Pak army) are playing real smart (may be only pretended to hold talks with TTP and managed to knock Hakeemullah out to weaken TTP and blame it on US and plead helplessness against drones) he has created another problem of PTI blockade of US supplies. New TTP leader will take time to take control and in the mean time will create havoc to prove his steel. Peace will not return soon but will be disturbed even more for a while. But with Baitullah and Hakeemullah sent to their maker by the same means, others will be more careful. That is when Pak army can gain the upper hand. That is the only way. Drones are a support for Pak army so Pakistani people should see them for what they achieve and not as an issue of sovereignty. @ mind control: Well said.
@x:
Baitullah killed, did peace come? Hakeemullah came in his place. Hakeemullah killed, will peace come? Some one will take his place. ON AND ON, round the mulberry bush. We are a dog chasing its own tail.
Do you want to know why is that so? Read on
An AFP journalist visited the property several times when the previous owner, a wealthy landlord, lived there. With the Pakistan army headquarters for restive North Waziristan just a kilometre away, locals thought of Mehsud's compound as the “safest” place in a dangerous area. Its proximity to a major military base recalls the hideout of Osama bin Laden in the town of Abbottabad, on the doorstep of Pakistan's elite military academy.
http://dawn.com/news/1054033/the-120000-farmhouse-where-the-ttp-chief-was-killed
Perhaps the Dog is only pretending to chase the tail.
@deep: Unlike the United States, we dont need to poke our noses into evrything and why should we? Standing on our own feet is a hard enough task for us. Afghanistan is NOT our country, let them do whatever they like, we only want peace in Pakistan, which is OUR country. The US has FAILED in this 'war', face saving rhetoric or blame games wont change this indisputable fact. What hope does Pakistan have? Baitullah killed, did peace come? Hakeemullah came in his place. Hakeemullah killed, will peace come? Some one will take his place. ON AND ON, round the mulberry bush. We are a dog chasing its own tail. Let's give talks a chance. DRONES must stop for that to happen, It's a shot. Let's please try it. Fighting has clearly failed. All those whodo not see it are in a state of denial or stupid. ET please allow.
A. What options do we have? It is clear that peace should be given priority.
OK. This is easy. Dismantle the present day state of Pakistan and erect a new Shariah compliant Caliphate . And yes, don't forget to punish Musharaff for Lal Masjid.
B. Is it time we gave some autonomy to some regions of the country as a concession to letting peace prevail.
Isn't NWA autonomous enough, as it it?
C. The problem is that we are squashed in between two or three parties. We are bearing the brunt of the fighting.
On the contrary Pakistan is bearing the brunt of NOT fighting. Pakistan was chanting the 'Not Our War' mantra when the GHQ and Air Bases were attacked, and also when the video showing decapitation of hostages by the Taliban was doing the rounds, even the loss of a Major General did not change the mantra. And now it is the officially stated policy endorsed by the APC. And the way the Bannu and D.I. Khan jails fell, shows that Pakistan is not fighting back. The Afghans are actually fighting them and seem to be holding their ground.
D. While China is mostly interested in economic cooperation with the post-2014 Afghanistan, other neighbours are looking at more meaningful gains.
For example 'Strategic Depth' or may be expanded 'Autonomous Region of Waziristan'?
Pakistan is running with the hare and hunting with the hound and thinks it is smart. The US has always pretended to believe in its smartness to keep it in good humour and never ever out of any conviction. I think the US directly deals with the military in these matters and Mr Shariff or any civilian leader has absolutely no say in this. Those who blame the US for the death of the terrorist is playing into the hands of the forces which are out to destroy whatever little democracy the military has allowed the civilian govt.
In a country where the death of a killer of many innocents turns him into a martyr (I Khan approach) there is no hope. Either Pakistan prevails (over TTP) or Pakistan perishes.
@Ch. Allah Daad: Completely agree. We haven't seen any fight from the Pakistani government. And when the analysts wholeheartedly support the Afghan taliban - it seems to be a case of double standards when you do not support the pakistani taliban. So what is not good for your women is good or alright for Afghan women? And now, the author seems to be suggesting something more dangerous - what is not good for the women of Islamabad, Lahore and possibly karachi, is good or alright for women in KPK and FATA.
Ultimately, that is where the battle lines should be drawn - and I am surprised that the progressive women (barring a brave few) are quiet on this issue.
@MJ: Mr.siddiqi is most likely pointing out to the Baluchistan situation,are we going to experience the East Pakistan scenario in Baluchistan or would it be prudent to give them autonomy in the confines of Pakistan and avert the disaster. We have created this un-winnable situation in Baluchistan by exploiting their resources for decades and ignoring its development, now the situation seems similar to the prevailing condition in East Pakistan before the 1971 full fledged flare up, think about it.
"Is it time we gave some autonomy to some regions of the country as a concession to letting peace prevail."
And next when they want our cities and our homes, let's give them those too.
Tired of what? We behaved like sitting ducks. We didn't fight any war.
Unless the Tajik establishment in Afghanistan and their Indian masters are checked, peace in Pakistan, will remain a very remote possibility...American troops notwithstanding.
No one is talking about our sovereignty... We have become a country where everyone plays their dirty games and test their advanced machines... Good sign of globalization...