Simply unbelievable

Qamar's claim that the country would be rid of load-shedding would be great news if it could be true.

There is nothing like the prospect of an upcoming election to suddenly make the impossible possible. Minister for Water and Power Naveed Qamar told the National Assembly that the country would be free of load-shedding from February 7, a claim that would be great news if there was any chance of it being true. Just because a minister of state wishes something to be true, however, is not enough to will it into existence. Nothing has happened in the recent past to suggest that we can immediately dispel our power shortages. If anything, our electricity crisis is more likely to worsen in the coming months.

We are currently facing an electricity shortage of over 8,000 MW, which will obviously lead to load-shedding, especially during the summer months. Previous water and power ministers have, like Qamar, promised that the days of load-shedding were over. Their predictions turned out to be full of hot air, as Qamar’s are likely to be. In the nearly five years since it has been in power, the PPP government has not been able to take any significant steps towards increased power generation. Funds have not been made available for the maintenance of the distribution network and to carry out much-needed renovation work on power plants, leading to increased generation and distribution losses.

There are some plans to increase power generation but their results will not manifest themselves overnight. Among the short-term projects currently in the pipeline, is a planned increase in the capacities of some plants in Punjab province, but none of them will be completed before the end of 2012 at the earliest. Meanwhile, even the electricity we do receive will only become more expensive. The international price of oil continues to rise and with tensions between the US and Iran over the vital Straits of Hormuz coming to a head, the upward trajectory will likely continue. Our supply of gas is also swiftly running out, leading to increased gas load-shedding in the country. Whatever solutions exist to these crises, they will take many years before having a demonstrable effect. Until then, the minister would be wise to explain the problems rather than simply pretend that they do not exist.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 8^th, 2012.