The drums of war

The possibility of permanent peace in our time and especially our region has been receding in recent years. In recent weeks, it has threatened to evaporate altogether as the current logjam between Pakistan, Afghanistan and America seems to be taking the region in that direction. As for India, it is, quite literally, drooling on the sidelines after recently signing a ‘historic’ security pact with Afghanistan. Of course, India should realise that it can do business with Afghanistan mostly through the land route, a facility that it does not have because of historical reasons.

Pakistan has been painted in the deepest, darkest shades of black imaginable by Afghan President Hamid Karzai who, along with every single Afghan one happens to meet on their own soil, vilifies Pakistan for all the ills of Afghanistan, both real and imaginary. The most common term of abuse for Pakistan in Kabul right now is a variation of the country’s name which equates it with a term of abuse. The inflammatory term is used by many Afghans (I was recently in Kabul on a visit) and reflects growing hatred and resentment against Pakistan, in sharp contrast to the past when many would see it as a valuable trading partner and friend. It seems that support — real or perceived — of the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network changed all that.

As for Hamid Karzai and his American overlords, both are fighting to retain a vestige of international credibility. In the case of Karzai, this is something he has never really enjoyed in Afghanistan. In the case of the Americans, they are quite clearly eager to absolve themselves of the ‘war against terror’ that they so conveniently created in a region where they desire a permanent foothold. They are now fast throwing caution to the wind in their dealings with Pakistan and the looming possibility of outright invasion of our tribal regions at least, could, if all else fails, become a reality. If that happens, Pakistan’s sovereignty could be compromised.

Tribal elders, visiting Kabul from their ancestral lands along the Durand Line, claim that Pakistan has encroached into Afghanistan by anywhere from 10-40 kilometres, and although such claims are hard to independently verify, they are believed by a lot of Afghans. This adds further to the resentment and anger against Pakistan, with many simply saying that they should march across the border and ‘set things right’. Of course, all this is not good for Pakistan, or even for Afghanistan, because the region needs peace and stability and that will happen only when there is greater realisation on all sides of the cost of war.

America has loudly declared, on more than one occasion, that it will not launch a ‘boots on the ground’ attack in Pakistan’s border regions but that doesn’t mean that the aerial route has been ruled out. Of course, one hopes that that does not happen, and that good sense prevails on both sides of the Durand Line. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan need to understand that a stable neighbour is good for them and that the best approach is to have direct engagement with one another.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 20^th, 2011.