Comprehensive crisis, muddled response

There is a symbiotic relationship between the country’s quality and capacity of national power and its ability to counter the challenges it is facing. In fact, it would be an understatement that Pakistan is facing a comprehensive crisis. There is not one major area that is not seriously affected — foreign relations, politics, economy and external and internal security.

Relations with the US in particular and the West in general are going through a difficult period. Imran Khan’s allegation that it was a foreign sponsored conspiracy that led to his ouster with fingers pointing toward the US has serious implications as it is not corroborated by our seasoned diplomats, foreign ministry, military leadership and experienced and watchful intelligence agencies. On the contrary, their view is that to pursue an unverified allegation by responsible leadership at such a high pitch cuts against national interest. But for Imran Khan this narrative serves his short-term objective, as he can project himself as a leader who can even “confront” the US, gain domestic popularity and keep the government off balance.

Internal politics has become highly confrontational and the national and provincial parliaments resemble more like war zones. The parliamentarians instead of focusing on serious national and provincial issues are frittering away their time and energy on frivolous matters and failing to rise anywhere close to people’s expectations. Power display through massive public rallies is becoming a norm in Pakistan with political polarisation at its peak. And Imran Khan seems to be way ahead of others having mastered it during his long years in opposition and being blessed with better miens. The characterisation by Imran Khan that the support he is receiving of a vast majority against his ouster reflects his popularity. Khan believes he has transcended the phase of relying on the military and apparently ranks himself in the category of elder Bhutto. Having de-linked himself from any institutional support, he perhaps considers himself being a master of his own destiny who could turn the country in the direction of his choosing, not realising this very overconfidence was Bhutto’s Achilles heel. Moreover, when the country is facing serious vulnerabilities, it would be a folly to take a confrontational posture both domestically and externally and whip up national sentiment and that too on a premise which is highly questionable.

It is common knowledge that in parliamentary democracy it is not mass rallies that are the final arbitrators of who remains Prime Minister but the numbers in parliament which determine the outcome. And these two may not necessarily be the same as we recently witnessed in respect of the PTI government losing its majority due to their disillusioned MNAs and allies. What is of immediate concern is the demonstration of unruly behaviour by parliamentarians after losing majority in the parliament, thereby creating new low benchmark in our tumultuous democratic journey. And the ruling coalition parties’ subsequent conduct in and outside the parliament should have also been more restrained.

Our national politics is not coming out of the dynastic syndrome. Father and son as PM and CM is unhealthy politics and bad optics, irrespective of how it is justified. It looks even worse when viewed in the larger context of the concentration of power the Sharif clan enjoys. The unfortunate aspect is that the PML N has probably some very seasoned and capable politicians in their senior and middle ranks but their justified ambitions remain restrained. PPP also needs to seriously consider sharing of power on a broader scale than concentrating it within the dynasty. Bilawal seems ready to assume a major role in the party due to his good educational background and sound intellect despite being the youngest among the current crop of top leadership. PPP too has highly experienced and competent politicians whose aspirations should be met in the larger interest of the party and the country.

With the army leadership staying away from politics it is more the reason for politicians to exercise self-discipline and responsible behaviour. Perhaps, there is little realisation on their part of the adverse consequences of their present conduct on the people at large. It soils the image of the country that manifests in various forms of discrimination abroad on its citizens. More significantly, it demoralises the public at large as they see few positive openings for them and their children.

National problems are getting compounded with the economy in free fall, foreign currency reserves fast dwindling and balance of payments position fairly precarious. This would further increase the country’s dependence on IMF and World Bank and assistance in the form of loans, mostly from China. Although looking back, this may be nothing new or extraordinary as Pakistan’s economy has never been self-sustaining and we have always been on crutches. But these are different times. The world has changed, our geo-strategic importance has dwindled and other complimentary factors that raised our nation’s profile are no more relevant to bail us out.

Besides, internal and external security situation poses new challenges. Attacks across the Western border have risen sharply, with TTP and IS-Khorasan claiming responsibility. There is latent support for these elements among certain tribes and groups in Afghanistan and from within Pakistan. Unfortunately, the Taliban leadership seems insensitive to Pakistan’s urgings that they act against these hostile elements. On the contrary, they have been accusing the military that it has on a few occasions violated Afghanistan’s territorial integrity.

Relations with India remain hostile and frozen with PM Modi unyielding on Kashmir and refusing to engage in dialogue. However, the congratulatory message from PM Modi to PM Shehbaz Sharif and the past history of PML-N government having relatively better relations with BJP leadership may lead to some movement.

In this unfavourable external and internal scenario, it is expected that the political leadership on both sides of the divide will not further aggravate hostility and display upmanship in a suicidal race, but find a way to coexist even while maintaining their differing political views and promoting economic programmes best suited for the country.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 20^th, 2022.

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