Trust at your own risk?

In recent years, many have argued that America has been losing trust of nations around the world. There is evidence to back this thesis. In 2021, Pew Research Center surveyed publics in 16 countries and found that 67% of those surveyed believed “the U.S. does not take their interests into account when it is making foreign policy decisions.” Interestingly, all the 16 publics surveyed would fall in the category of US “allies” — those with longstanding economic, cultural and security ties with America — that may reasonably expect America to reciprocate their cooperation by taking their interests into account. The fact that a considerable majority of them does not see that happening is a clear indication of popular mistrust in America’s leadership.

Since 9/11, America has backtracked on its commitments and abandoned those who supported it in achieving its objectives in more than one instance.

Before the Libyan dictator was toppled and killed, Bush administration had promised Muammar Qaddafi that if he gave up his weapons of mass destruction, he would not be made the next Saddam Hussein. Qaddafi gave up his weapons programme. Later, under Obama administration, America backtracked on the pledge and collaborated in his overthrow.

In Iraq, the Iraqi Sunni militia forces known as Sahwa or Sons of Iraq, as US forces dubbed them, were instrumental in America’s fight against al-Qaeda. For their crucial contribution, America and Iraqi officials had promised them a role in future security apparatus of Iraq. America abandoned them in 2011 when it left Iraq. Later they were butchered by ISIS, and as many as 1,345 had died by 2014.

While President Trump may claim all the credit for defeating ISIS, it is widely known that the fight against ISIS would have been way costlier for America, if not impossible to win, without the support of Syrian Kurds. They were abruptly abandoned too after President Trump ordered withdrawal of US forces from Turkey-Syria border, leaving Kurds at the mercy of the invading Turkish forces. Within a week, 130,000 Kurds were forced to flee their homes and hundreds had died.

Under President Trump, the US also withdrew from Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or Iran Deal, despite warnings from leading national security scholars of America against such a move. Iran was fully compliant with the agreement. Notwithstanding that, the ease with which America rolled back on a multilateral treaty certainly raised many eyebrows in key capitals around the world.

Last year, America exited Afghanistan after two decades of war. Many called it a right and necessary decision; except those thousands of Afghans who had collaborated with America in return of a promise that America would protect them but who were now left to be witch-hunted by the Taliban.

At the end of Cold War, Ukraine was the third largest nuclear power on Earth. However, in 1994, in an agreement known as the Budapest Agreement, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons after assurances from the US, UK and Russia that they would respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. In 2014, and again last month, when Russia invaded Ukraine, neither the US nor the UK went beyond diplomatic condemnations and economic sanctions. Understandably, America does not want to escalate the conflict. Yet, America’s decision to stand by as Putin conquers a friendly country by force may make many countries rethink their trust in America’s security commitments.

America repeatedly backtracking on its promises and commitments will make it difficult for nations to trust America. Consequently, it will be harder to reach agreements. Fewer will be willing to collaborate fearing that they too will be abandoned. And, countries will demand more stringent guarantees when they collaborate. At the same time, states losing faith in America’s commitments may push for greater military autonomy. A majority of South Koreans now favour their country obtaining nuclear weapons. The story of Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons and ending up conquered has already become a popular anecdote. Going forward, this line of thinking may put at risk the world’s nuclear non-proliferation regime. At the same time, China will be eager to present itself as a trustworthy and reliable alternative.

America’s leadership hinges on winning and retaining the support of nations around the world, and being a Perfidious Albion would not serve the cause.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 17^th, 2022.

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