IK’s visit to Russia: context and circumstances

Prime Minister Imran Khan will be visiting Russia next week and it is important to see the context under which this visit is taking place. My basic argument is that if China and Russia can improve their relationship despite being historical rivals and unlikely natural partners why can’t relationship between Pakistan and Russia improve? It is only in the past seven years that the Moscow-Beijing relationship has intensified and deepened, mainly after Russia was sanctioned for annexing Crimea in 2014. Since then there has been a visible change in the Sino-Russian relationship. Today Russian trade has significantly tilted away from the West and towards China, and Russia has become the number one trading partner of China. Bilateral trade between the two powers is now estimated to exceed $200 billion by 2024 which is twice of what it was a decade earlier.

The growing Sino-Russian partnership has a very meaningful context in how Russia-Pakistan relation may also gain impetus. Carl Von Clausewitz always believed in the centrality of context — the broad setting within which any event occurs. So, what is the broad setting under which PM Imran Khan’s visit to Russia is taking place? One aspect of this broad setting is the shadow of Sino-China relationship under which this meeting will take place but the other aspect is the treatment that both the Trump and Biden administrations have meted out to both Russia and Pakistan (and China as well).

The US-Russian relationship could not have improved during the period of Trump administration. The popular accusation of Russian interference in 2016 American presidential election took away that leverage from President Trump and despite his great personal desire he never had the favourable domestic political circumstances to do President Vladimir Putin’s bidding. A similar thing happened with President Biden and his administration that kept a reasonable distance from PM Imran Khan and his government. Majority of Americans believe that Pakistan had a role to play in the American defeat and its eventual withdrawal from Afghanistan. So, putting distance between the two countries seemed a reasonable decision which communicates to the domestic American audience in how those who are being blamed for American defeat in Afghanistan are getting the treatment that they deserve. With over three and a half years in power Imran Khan and his government waited enough for Americans to take an initiative and see what can be done to address the most crucial question that the world clearly needs to answer — what to do with the Taliban’s regime and the future of Afghanistan? The hope of seeing both President Biden and PM Imran joining hands and agreeing with each other’s point of view to do something about the future of Afghanistan is almost over. Had Pakistan’s point of view on Afghanistan not clashed with the ambitions of the US and India in the region we may not have witnessed this unnecessary stalemate on the most important question that the world faces today — the future of Afghanistan.

So, the broad setting under which this meeting will take place will be incomplete if we do not consider two things: one, the future of Afghanistan and what the regional powers together with Pakistan can do about it; and two, the presence of Russian forces on the eastern border of Ukraine and the anxieties it is causing to the world. Right now, geopolitically, Ukrainian crisis is the most significant event taking place in the world but Imran Khan’s focus would more be on what can be done about Afghanistan’s future.

There is no doubt that American disconnection and disengagement has resulted in the growing Sino-Russian alliance and it is around such an alliance that countries like Pakistan will also seek to enhance its partnership with these two allied powers.

History tells us how in the past American disengagement in Europe led to disastrous consequences for the world. It disengaged from Europe after World War-I, and about two decades later World War-II was triggered from the very continent. Yugoslavia’s nationalist conflict and the atrocities and human tragedies that Yugoslavia suffered are also attributed to American disengagement from that conflict. So, history tells us that disengagement is a poor policy and it will get poorer as American influence and power wanes.

After the US declared Russia and China as the greatest geopolitical threats of the 21^st century, the response of these two countries can also not go unnoticed. They consider the US as no more the indispensable nation that can shape up the global affairs to its liking. The growing Russian and Chinese nationalism is a response to this growing American phenomenon of a power that despite the decline it faces is not backing off to challenge the persistent power, Russia, and the rising power, China.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, PM Imran’s visit is more likely to be remembered for its economic than its political impact, ass Russia is rich in oil and gas resources and Pakistan is experiencing longstanding energy poverty. But politically also the world cannot take its eyes off this event because it is taking place at a difficult time. The US keeps projecting to the world that Russian invasion of Ukraine is around the corner and one is not sure whether in case of such an eventuality PM Imran’s visit will even materialise.

Charles A Kupchan who is a senior fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations has suggested that President Biden’s administration should undertake the strategy of putting distance between Moscow and Beijing and the way forward he suggests is for Washington to encourage Moscow to drift away from Beijing. Politically, Pakistan in the early 70s played a role in bringing the US and China together. Today, however, the circumstances have changed and Pakistan, guided by the policy of strategic autonomy, should continue to play its role in ensuring that not only there is no division between Moscow and Beijing but also how Russia (the persistent power), China (the rising power) and the US (the depleting power) should continue to seek cooperation and not conflict as the preferred method of their engagement.

For nearly 50 years, the US employed the grand strategy of containment against the USSR during the cold war. It also taught the world that containment not only requires presence of military forces but also the credible threat of their use — something what President Putin is exactly doing now to contain the NATO’s expansion eastwards; and Ukraine stands out as the last battle and stand of such a Russian approach.

I have tried to highlight the context under which PM Imran’s visit to Russia is taking place. But any context is surrounded and influenced by circumstances. Pakistan has historically been an American ally but as an actor on the world stage it has to act in the given circumstances in which it finds itself. Pakistan should not take any step backwards from its relationship with the US but it has no reason not to take two steps forward towards Russia specially under the shadow of growing Sino-Russian partnership.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 20^th, 2022.

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