Back to the 90s

Afghanistan is on its way back to the 90s when USSR withdrew under intl pressure and internal economic mess

Afghanistan is on its way back to the 90s when the then USSR withdrew under international pressure and internal economic mess. Back then, Afghanistan was left in political disarray with civil war looming on the horizon. The US, which was spearheading ‘jihad’ against an ‘evil empire’, turned its back on the Afghans who had to live with violence at home or languish in miserable conditions abroad. We have now come full circle after 20 years!

The US has demonstrably been extremely irresponsible in leaving behind an unstable government in Afghanistan with a high risk of the country plunging into civil war. Foreign nationals and many Afghans have already started fleeing the country amidst the Taliban’s advancement to the capital. Visibly demoralised and ill-trained, the Afghan security forces are on the retreat paving the way for traditional warlords to fill the power vacuum. It is feared that the warlords, being sponsored from outside, would make it difficult for a central authority to prevail in the near future.

At the core of the Afghan imbroglio is the question of who should rule Afghanistan. The simple answer presumably would be that the Afghans should decide who they want to rule them. This would certainly be an ideal solution but it is based on many ifs and buts. The Taliban want the US to withdraw its forces and stay neutral about the formation and nature of government in Afghanistan.

They are convinced that they have the right to rule Afghanistan for two reasons. One, the incumbent government of Ashraf Ghani, notwithstanding its democratic façade, is believed to be illegitimate given that it has been installed by the US. They assert that the sitting government does not truly represent the values of a predominantly tribal and conservative society in Afghanistan. Two, the Taliban argue that since they were in charge of Afghanistan when the US had invaded and dislodged their government in 2001, restoring them back to the throne is only a matter of principle.

The current Afghan government, despite being politically weak, has not completely lost its charm to a huge segment of society, especially those who wish to see Afghanistan as a modern democratic state with equal rights for women and minorities. It projects itself as the conduit of economic prosperity and defender of human rights and constitutionalism. It wants the Taliban to shun violence and embrace democracy as the way forward for a lasting peace in Afghanistan.

Besides these two conflicting positions on power dynamics, the strategic interests of players outside Afghanistan further complicate the situation. The presence of India in Afghanistan is viewed with askance eyes in Pakistan. India wants to encircle Pakistan from all sides and weaken it into submission. India’s deep involvement in Afghanistan in terms of building infrastructure, military and intelligence cooperation, and media control creates worries in Pakistan. Strategically, Pakistan cannot allow India to use the land and people of Afghanistan for subversive activities in Balochistan and K-P. It is inconceivable to expect Pakistan lending support to any initiative for peace and stability in Afghanistan at the cost of its own security.

To counter India in Afghanistan, Pakistan keeps on resisting any temptation to put pressure on the Afghan Taliban. By alienating the Taliban, Pakistan believes it will come between the rock and a hard place. It has already paid a heavy price for sharing intelligence and providing logistical support to the US. As part of strategic calculations, Pakistan continues to observe ignorance and incompetence in matters deemed dangerous for the Taliban.

Given the divergence of interests, peace in Afghanistan has now become a difficult project to accomplish. The Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process is just a window-dressing and a contradiction in terms. Is it not silly to think that after so much at stake, all players will remain neutral? Because of its geographical proximity and porous border, Pakistan in particular cannot remain indifferent to developments in Afghanistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 10^th, 2021.

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