The Buzdar question

Imran seems to have been guaranteed a full five-year term, with a tentative Buzdar leading Punjab, Azadi March or not

The fact that Punjab Chief Minister Sardar Usman Buzdar has survived an uncertain 13-month long tenure despite predictions to the contrary is essentially thanks to Prime Minister Imran Khan, though the CM still looks decidedly tentative even after having occupied the office for over a year.

Buzdar is certainly no “Waseem Akram Plus” of Punjab politics. Perhaps, he doesn’t merit even the 12^th man’s slot in Kaptaan’s political team. Still, the PM has preferred him over many provincial PTI stalwarts for the country’s second most powerful political office.

An ill-advised decision? Perhaps not, if viewed in the backdrop of the recent history of Punjab CMs. The then CM Punjab, Ghulam Mustafa Khar, had successfully — i.e. almost — challenged PM Zulfikar Ali Bhutto (ZAB). He failed in the final showdown but, in the process, triggered a successful military coup that led to ZAB’s ouster and hanging.

Next, the then CM Punjab, Nawaz Sharif, not only succeeded in succeeding PM Benazir Bhutto half-way through her first tenure but, while doing so, he also snatched the leadership of the ruling IJI from Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi.

PM Nawaz Sharif was shown the door quickly by then Punjab CM Manzoor Wattoo, who was manoeuvred into the office in Ghulam Haider Wyne’s place by then-president Ghulam Ishaq Khan. Wattoo eroded PM Nawaz’s support in the Provincial Assembly making it impossible for the latter to survive even after having been restored to the office by the Supreme Court which refused to uphold the dismissal orders issued by president Khan under the now-defunct Article 58-2(b) of the Constitution.

Again, it was Punjab CM Manzoor Watto of PML-J (PPP’s coalition partner in Punjab and the Centre) who went about completely decimating the PPP in Punjab, the party’s original political base, leaving PM Bhutto — who had returned to power for the second time following 1993 elections — holding an empty political sack particularly in Punjab when it was time for her to go to courts to contest president Farooq Laghari’s dismissal orders issued under Article 58-2(b).

Nawaz returned to power heading his own faction (PML-N) of the Muslim League after ousting Mohammad Khan Junejo from the party leadership. This time he sent his own brother Shehbaz Sharif to the Punjab CM’s office to cover his back against “intrigues” to topple him. The brother, of course, remained loyal even when tempted by an overambitious COAS, General Musharraf, following a direct clash between the political and military leadership over the army chief’s Kargil misadventure.

PM Shaukat Aziz was in office more at the pleasure of the Chaudhrys of Punjab — the PML-Q chief, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and his cousin, Punjab CM Chaudhry Pervez Elahi — rather than that of the seemingly all-powerful military dictator, General Musharraf. In fact, the arrangement between Musharraf and the Chaudhrys was that the PML-Q would get the former re-elected in uniform before the next general election in exchange for Elahi getting the PM’s slot. Because of this, in the deal agreed between Benazir and Musharraf the former’s demand that she be allowed to contest for PM’s office for the third time was rejected and the controversial National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) was issued exonerating politicians of corruption cases instituted against them by “past governments”.

And to be honest, it was at the pleasure of the PML-N which had then controlled Punjab that the fourth PPP government led by President Zardari could survive its full term. But come election time, Nawaz was back in the PM’s office for the third time, thanks to then Punjab CM and brother, Shehbaz, who also returned to the provincial office for the third time. And he stood by the elder brother once again resisting all temptations when the so-called “Dawn Leaks” triggered a serious clash between the political and military leadership.

So, with a tentative Buzdar leading Punjab and the civil and military leadership on the same page, Imran seems to have been guaranteed a full five-year term, “Azadi March” or not! Still, keep your fingers crossed. Anything can happen in this accident-prone country.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 26^th, 2019.

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