The shape of things to come

In theory the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ought to be one of the most powerful organisations in the world. It began in 2001 as a Eurasian political, economic and security organisation. It is the largest regional organisation in terms of geographical coverage and population — and hitherto something of a white elephant. One observer has commented that ‘institutional weaknesses, a lack of common funds for joint project financing and conflicting national interests’ have all contributed to an ongoing lack of traction.

Be that as it may, Pakistan and India are set to attend the SCO summit being held this year in Qingdao, eastern China, on June 9-10. Persuading India and Pakistan to attend anything together is an achievement in itself, and is directly attributable to the pressure applied to both by Russia and China who are the emerging players regionally as America wanes into isolationism.

The part played by China in the fate of Pakistan in the immediate top long term cannot be underestimated. The Belt and Road initiative of which the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is just a part is not flavour of this or any month with India, but China has its own agenda, outweighs India on every front and will pursue its regional hegemony with vigour. Russia is eyeing a hitch to CPEC as well, and is making considerable advances in terms of military cooperation and support for Pakistan. Both countries see obvious advantages in having India and Pakistan working collaboratively with the SCO, however willing or unwilling they may be.

Not at the table are America and Saudi Arabia. The latter is a fading force as far as Pakistan is concerned, overtaken by events and history. It is fragile, oil dependent with almost zero economic diversity and has little to offer. It will fade further as the world relies less on fossil fuels. Russia and China see with the SCO an opportunity worth the taking if only Pakistan and India can be persuaded to play along. Best of luck.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 10^th, 2018.

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