Time to resume dialogue

BJP’s convincing victory in UP and Uttarakhand has firmly placed Modi as the current unchallenged leader of India

BJP’s convincing victory in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Uttarakhand state elections has firmly placed Modi as the current unchallenged leader of India. With Congress and other opposition parties in disarray and devoid of good leadership it is likely that BJP could stay in power even after the next national elections in 2019. Surely, the victory has energised the party and given them a huge boost and with hardly any challenge from Congress Modi will remain a dominant force and key player in Indian politics. Prime Minister Modi tirelessly led the election campaign and staked his own and party’s future on the outcome of these elections. It is apparent that his ceaseless campaigning paid off handsomely as BJP’s performance was best ever in UP and Uttarakhand. The election was essentially fought on the basis of projecting improved performance and continuous high economic growth. BJP’s ideology took a second place but acute criticism of Pakistan on the external front and debasing of domestic political opponents were the hallmarks of the state elections.

Victory in state elections will provide Modi the political capital to undertake major economic and administrative reforms that he and his party have planned. Obviously, for Congress and especially for Rahul Gandhi the election fiasco has been a huge setback as they were able to only retain Punjab. In Goa that gave a split mandate, BJP has staked claim to form government in alliance with other parties. More significantly, it has raised serious doubts if Rahul will be able to effectively lead the party in future. The Congress party has been so closely associated with the Nehru family and a victim of dynastic politics that it has lost its dynamism and appeal. For Pakistanis this phenomenon is familiar, as PPP has met a similar fate being reduced essentially to rural Sindh. May be the dismal performance of Congress shakes its leaders to reform and reorganise.

The question is what does BJP’s win in state elections mean for Pakistan. Will it further embolden Modi to take an aggressive stand and continue with his campaign to isolate Pakistan? Or will it give him the confidence to engage with it in a more rational and less belligerent manner. There is a school of thought that Modi stepped up his anti Pakistan rhetoric to boost his party’s position in the state elections. It is, however, doubtful if relations with Pakistan played any significant role in influencing the voting pattern apart from reinforcing Modi’s image as a strong leader. Moreover, by now PM Modi should have come to realise that isolating Pakistan is not a feasible proposition. If any evidence of that is needed the recent Economic Cooperation Organisation Summit in which with the exception of Afghanistan, and that too at India’s behest, all nine countries were represented either by their Presidents or Prime Ministers. In addition Pakistan’s strategic relationship with China and its close ties with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and several Middle-Eastern and European countries is a manifestation of the reality that a country of 200 million people and geo-politically important cannot be isolated. All it does is to generate more ill will between us. Not to mention that every time tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours escalate they raise serious concerns internationally.

India has been resorting to heavy and sustained firing across the Line of Control and working boundary to build pressure on Pakistan. This has led to Pakistan taking retaliatory measures and the vicious cycle continues with casualties of innocent civilians taking place. But this is not a solution to the existing logjam nor is it an answer to control infiltration of Jihadi elements. Operationalising the Cold Start doctrine can turn hazardous with unintended consequences.

For Pakistan too it provides a fresh opportunity to reassess how to engage with India. Modi’s insistence that India will only talk about terrorism indicates that Pakistan has not taken sufficient steps to control the activities of LeT. Now that Hafiz Saeed that India claims as the Mumbai attacks mastermind has been put under house arrest in Lahore under the Anti-Terrorism Act and his movement restricted and funds frozen, India should be prepared to engage in dialogue. It is possible that once dialogue resumes and Pakistan is provided additional evidence, legal proceedings against LeT could proceed and remove this major source of contention. New Delhi’s entire focus to alter the modalities of the dialogue process around the issue of terrorism is to deny Pakistan the opportunity to discuss other vital issues. Another factor that is influencing India to maintain this hostile posture toward Pakistan is the US and Western support it is getting as a rising major power.

Despite these advantages, Modi’s government cannot continue to ignore the reality of what is happening in Kashmir and deflect world attention by using the pretext of militancy. By not seriously addressing the grievances and genuine demands of Kashmiris India has been providing a fillip to militancy. Modi government’s overreaction and cancellation of bilateral talks last year after a meeting between our High Commissioner in India and leaders of Hurriyat resulted in increasing tension. This only shows India needed an excuse to suspend talks as such meetings were taking place in the past without much fuss. Modi’s acerbic attitude toward Pakistan has only made matters worse. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif despite opposition from, influential quarters has shown his governments willingness to engage in meaningful dialogue with India. The army leadership too is not averse to talks and its main focus is to fight terrorism and if relations with India improve it can focus on the internal threat. On the contrary, if the status quo continues it will be harmful for the entire region. Already we can see its adverse impact on Afghanistan and it could get worse. It is time both sides resume engagement at the diplomatic level to first deescalate and prevent skirmishes along the LoC. This should be followed by resumption of bilateral dialogue on all substantive issues including Kashmir and terrorism.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 15^th, 2017.

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