Analysis: Hekmatyar could run for president

ISLAMABAD: The Hizb-e-Islami Afghanistan has finally signed a long-awaited peace deal with the government that paves the way for the group to wind up its armed struggle and join mainstream politics. Hizb fighters and commanders would be ‘recruited’ into the security forces, according the 25-point draft of the agreement.

As the deal clears the way for the return of the Hizb chief Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, possibly in a few weeks, the group is now weighing options for active political role in Afghanistan. A top Hizb leader has indicated that Hekmatyar could stand in the next presidential elections. Hekmatyar will seal the agreement along with President Ashraf Ghani after he returns to Kabul.

“Although it is premature to say anything now, I do not rule out the possibility of Hekmatyar becoming a presidential candidate,” Qazi Hakim, head of Hizb’s Executive Committee, told The Express Tribune on Friday.

Qazi Hakim, who had also been involved in peace negotiations with the government, said his party would take active part in next parliamentary elections.

Afghan analysts believe the Hizb-Kabul agreement would help in strengthening the political system but they do not expect any change in the security environment.

Afghan journalist Najam Burhani is of the opinion Hizb could emerge as a second political force to challenge its traditional rival, Jamiat-e-Islami, led by Foreign Minister Sayed Salahuddin Rabbani. Chief Executive Dr Abdullah Abdullah, who had earlier opposed the deal, also belongs to Jamiat. “I think Hizb-e-Islami joining political activities will lower the influence of Jamiat-e-Islami and will end one party’s domination. Hekmatyar’s participation in politics will give a momentum to political process in Afghanistan,” Burhani told The Express Tribune.

Kabul-based analyst Nazar Mutmaeen describes the peace accord as a ‘big achievement’ of President Ashraf Ghani; however, he said it would not have any effect on the military situation. “The agreement will not have any impact on the Taliban war. But the Hizb will be brought to Kabul to challenge the Northern Alliance,” Mutmaeen told The Express Tribune from Kabul by the phone. He also said there was an impression in Kabul that the deal had been inked to prepare Hizb for ‘fighting with the Taliban’.

The Taliban have not officially commented on the Hizb peace accord but have used their official media to mock it as ‘political marriage.’ Section of the online media, which is considered very close to the Taliban, says that Hekmatyar’s reconciliation has no ‘worth’ in the changed Afghan scenario.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 24^th, 2016.