Nuclear chess

Pakistan is a nuclear state, with both civil and military applications of nuclear technologies. So is India. And China. Balancing nuclear interests in the global context is not unlike three-dimensional chess with complex moves being made that reach far into the futures of all states involved in the game. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is currently in the US, a three-day visit that is part of legacy-building for President Obama and some crafty politicking for foreign and domestic consumption by Mr Modi. The Modi star is as ascendant abroad as it is descendent at home, and to gain the support of the US in the Indian attempt to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) is going to play well to both domestic and, possibly, foreign audiences, but not to all. China is far from happy at the Indians joining the NSG and it is not difficult to see why.

China is saying that if India is to be offered “exceptions” and be allowed to join the NSG, then so should Pakistan. Neither has signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty that is a pre-requisite of NSG membership, making something of a nonsense of the NSG baseline requirements if allowed. Interestingly, the Missile Technology Control Regime, which is a group of 34 states, agreed to admit India just as the US was indicating its support for NSG membership.



For China, there is the option of vetoing the Indian application to the NSG on the grounds outlined above, but it will be mindful of India’s role in the ‘pivot’ towards the Pacific that is a core element of US foreign policy for the last several years. For the US, India is a potential market for civil nuclear applications — power stations, none of which have been built with American involvement — and military in the form of advanced missile technologies and particularly drones such as the Predator, which India would dearly love to have in its inventory. India has other supporters for NSG membership — the Swiss joining that group on June 6. If ever Pakistan needed a full-time foreign minister to play our hand in this Machiavellian game, that time is now. Sadly, not to be.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 9^th, 2016.

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