The trade potential between Pakistan and Afghanistan is much bigger than currently estimated, however, non-tariff barriers and illegal smuggling of goods, and other hurdles on both sides, continue to impede growth in bilateral trade. The disturbing aspect of Afghan transit trade has been a major difference in Pakistan’s and Afghanistan’s reporting in value of the transit trade. In case the TIR Convention is successfully introduced between Pakistan and Afghanistan, Pakistani trucks carrying export goods to Central Asian markets could cross the Afghan border without hindrance and trucks carrying goods from Central Asian countries could also cross over to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. The same trucks could then carry, on their return, Indian goods for Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asian markets, creating a vibrant regional trading zone. However, for this to happen, the enormous trust deficit that exists between India and Pakistan on the one hand and on the other, between Pakistan and Afghanistan, would first need to be removed. Next, in view of the enormous economic potential of such a trading zone taking shape, Pakistan in its own economic interests should be prepared to allow India overland transit trade route facility to reach Afghanistan and beyond, in return for a political and/or economic quid pro quo from a willing India.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 13th, 2016.
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