Cautious optimism

Pakistan has undergone a series of positive developments that merit recognition, says Forbes magazine

Reasons to be cheerful about anything in Pakistan are at something of a premium, thus when a magazine of international repute such as the bi-weekly Forbes has something good to say about the Pakistan economy, it is worthy of note. A recent article in Forbes says that Pakistan has experienced a number of positive developments of late, many of them dating from the 2013 general election and that if things continued in a similar vein, then the country may be set to follow the same path as Indonesia or Brazil. Pakistan is set to complete an IMF programme from end-to-end for the first time (not without hiccups it must be said) and there is healthy growth in the economy. The civilian government and civil society — a somewhat nebulous concept — and the military appear to be on the same page in respect of security issues though it is not always clear which hand is on the steering wheel.



The middle class is growing apace and with it the pool of disposable income, there is huge potential for expansion in the energy sector and our coal reserves lead Forbes to speculate that Pakistan might become a future “Saudi Arabia of Coal”. With galloping growth in India and China, it is in the interests of all for Pakistan to also grow — and here are the caveats. For those closely observant of Pakistan in a holistic sense, there are a number of systemic deficits that sit behind the positive image presented by Forbes, and although there are reasons to be cheerful, there are other reasons to be less so. All of the states around us that are experiencing growth and development have invested heavily and for decades in education, an investment that is paying off for them now. Pakistan has not. Nor is there any indication that it has either the desire or the capacity to do so in the foreseeable future. It has a grossly malnourished populace with nearly 50 per cent of all children under five suffering from a degree of stunting and, after Afghanistan, the largest cohort of children out of school in the world. Turn that around in a generation and then, only then, allow an outbreak of unbridled optimism.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 7^th, 2016.

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