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                        <title>News Opinion &amp; Reviews - The Express Tribune</title>
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                        <link>https://tribune.com.pk</link>
                        <description>The Express Tribune keeps you up to date with all the latest happenings from Pakistan and across the world!</description>
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			<title>NPT Review Conference - challenges ahead?</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605730/npt-review-conference-challenges-ahead</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605730/npt-review-conference-challenges-ahead#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Thu, 30 Apr 26 19:53:57 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Prof Dr Rizwana Abbasi]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2605730</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[There is need to revise the core power structure inside the NPT to make it consistent with new realities]]>
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				<![CDATA[The 11th Nuclear Non-proliferation (NPT) Review Conference (RevCon) is under way at the UN, having started on 27 April to run till 22 May. As per the NPT&#39;s Article 8, the RevCon is mandated to take place every five years, convening all the member and observer states as well as intergovernmental and civil society organisations to review the implementation process of the treaty. Two previous RevCons, in 2015 and 2022, had failed to build consensus on a final document. This year&#39;s RevCon is taking place at a time when the world is more fragmented and disordered, and the multilateral system is deeply fractured. Wars are being legitimised in search of a notion of victory, and arms buildup is increasing while discussions on disarmament are waning. New technologies have taken a role in the battlefield, and states&#39; territorial boundaries are disrespected, and the UN charter is dishonoured. Nuclear weapons are being seen widely as a toolkit to safeguard national security against foreign invasions. Thus, it is thought that negotiations at RevCon 2026 will be potentially challenging and without a consensus; and the event may conclude in another failure to reach an agreed-upon outcome.

The diplomatic atmosphere going into the conference is widely tense. The divergences over the Ukraine war and its impact on the nuclear energy infrastructure of the country; the differences over the Iran war and its nuclear programme, the management of its enriched uranium and verification processes; the attack of some states on others&#39; nuclear facilities; and the safety of nuclear material amid civil unrest will remain on the table. Anxieties of the US-led alliance system about China&#39;s strategic force modernisation; apprehensions of many states on the forward deployment of USA&#39;s tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) in Europe and Russia&#39;s declaration of deployment of its TNWs in Belarus; and the inability of the P5 states to engage in meaningful negotiations on nuclear disarmament will also dominate discussions.

Already, deep geopolitical divisions between nuclear-weapon states (NWS) and non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS) seem to widen during this RevCon. The ongoing geopolitical rivalry and great power competition between the US, Russia and China, and the division between NATO and others, have already created sharp disagreements and mistrust within P5 states over nuclear policies and transparency. These competing trends seem to become a stumbling block as regards cooperation and shared understanding at the RevCon forum.

Recently, US President Donald Trump&#39;s announcement to resume nuclear testing and abrogate the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty has removed barriers for the US and Russia to increase their strategic arsenals in current times. Against the backdrop of Russian aggression in Eastern Europe and the USA&#39;s shrinking footprint from European security architecture, France has also demonstrated on modernisation of its strategic forces and working closely with its allies on making nuclear deterrence credible.

The ongoing arms control crisis is a major blow to the NPT&#39;s survival. With the global demise of the arms control architecture between the US and Russia, conventional asymmetries are aggravated in various conflict-prone regions. States in the Asia-Pacific, South Asia, the Middle East, the Korean peninsula and Eastern Europe are actively involved in a security-dilemma-driven arms race problem. Thus, the NPT&#39;s norms are losing credence; states&#39; reliance on armament and military capabilities has increased; and their aspiration for nuclear disarmament has declined.

The advent of new technologies such as cyber warfare toolkits, AI-led drones and Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems, nuclear hypersonic glide vehicles, hypersonic cruise missiles, global prompt strikes, states monopoly in space and cyberspace, anti-satellite and surveillance systems and blurring of the thin line between TNWs and high-precision advanced conventional systems have lowered the threshold for use of nuclear weapons. These developments will be impossible areas for this year&#39;s RevCon to grapple with.

There is a growing gap between the NPT and the growth of emerging technologies. The principal technology holders participating in the REvCon forum are unprepared to engage in meaningful discussions to craft an actionable regulatory mechanism to regulate new technologies. NWS are resistant to the notion of relinquishing their nuclear capabilities. Indeed, the new technologies have become a significant conventional advantage to those who possess them, leading to an increased reliance on nuclear weapons by states that lack such technological advancements.

Further discussion of the RevCon will surround the treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons (TPNW). This treaty grounds its core idea on the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons, which was propagated by civil society groups and the public alike, aspiring for a world free of nuclear weapons. This treaty potentially could not build an interface between new technologies and states&#39; security needs. The TPNW seems to create conflicting political cleavages between its supporters and those who hold a monopoly on strategic weapons. The TPNW may not have the power to bridge the divide between NWS and NNWS without integrating debates on emerging regional tensions and states&#39; security considerations. The TPNW&#39;s emergence echoes frustration within the NPT structure. In a nutshell, the NPT process is trying to function while its supporting ecosystem is weakening.

There is a need to revise the core power structure inside the NPT to make it consistent with new realities. There is a need to re-establish an arms control regime to build renewed momentum towards non-proliferation. It is vital to mitigate the divide between NWS and NNWS by maintaining a balance between states&#39; security needs and the total elimination of nuclear weapons. TPNW has to ensure that no state or group of states gains a military advantage over others and that equal and undiminished security for states across the board is guaranteed.

RevCon 2026 won&#39;t be able to yield any results until certain new conditions are set to create a renewed security environment, globally and regionally. Without meaningful discussions within the UN system to create an implementable security mechanism, which provides guarantees for regional states against arbitrary action by the powerful states, making the NPT relevant in today&#39;s world is not possible. Arguably, the restoration of the Conference on Disarmament forum can offer a comprehensive framework providing for simultaneous efforts to address non-nuclear military asymmetries, militarisation of AI and prevention of arms race in outer space. More narrowly, the special session on disarmament (SSOD-I) offers an avenue for the creation of a new security environment and a new framework for reviving the spirit of NPT.]]>
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			<title>Europe: doctrinal shift towards violence</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605731/europe-doctrinal-shift-towards-violence</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605731/europe-doctrinal-shift-towards-violence#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Thu, 30 Apr 26 19:53:57 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Aneela Shahzad]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2605731</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Europe is rebuilding its defence industrial base - shifting towards a war economy]]>
			</description>
			<content:encoded>
				<![CDATA[In March 2025, army chiefs of more than 30 Western countries met in Paris. They urged Europe to be ready for war, and to operate without US support if needed. Two of army chiefs - Gen Knighton of the UK and Gen Breuer of Germany - called for Europe to rearm rapidly and for the European public to accept preparation for war. Gen Fabien of France said &quot;war is no longer hypothetical; it&#39;s plausible within this decade&quot;. NATO&#39;s chief Mark Rutte, while framing Russia as a direct long-term threat, said Europe is already &quot;in harm&#39;s way&quot;.

As part of the EU&#39;s Readiness 2030 initiative, up to 800 billion will be mobilised for defence; joint procurement and defence industry expansion are being accelerated; Finland, Estonia, Norway, Greece, Switzerland already have mandatory military service; and border militarisation has increased with more surveillance and troop mobility.

Europe is not just preparing for independent European defence capability; it&#39;s rebuilding its defence industrial base - its shifting towards a war-economy.

Last month German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius unveiled Germany&#39;s strategy for becoming Europe&#39;s strongest military by 2039, with 460,000 combat-ready troops. Titled &#39;Verantwortung f&uuml;r Europa&#39; i.e. Responsibility for Europe, the strategy also marks a doctrinal shift toward a &#39;one theater approach&#39;, treating NATO territory, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific as interconnected security spaces rather than discrete theaters.

A month earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron had presented his &#39;Forward Deterrence&#39; strategy with a new nuclear strategy. France will increase its nuclear warheads and allow temporary deployment of French nuclear-armed Rafale jets to allied European countries like Germany, Britain, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark to bolster security.

The latest reviewed British Defence Doctrine also calls for integration with allies; need for agile, joint and multinational integrated operations; investing in British-based firms for defence technology; and the Manoeuvrist Approach to disrupt enemy&#39;s cohesion rather than just focusing on physical destruction.

These doctrinal shifts point to the fact that European states want to take the responsibility of war in their own hands now, and that the passive approach of relying on a disregarding and exclusionist US has ended. But does this also not mean that the era of Europe&#39;s &#39;liberal democracy&#39;, wherein the individual was the prime focus and whose path was nothing but his/her individual pursuit of happiness, is over? Now, quoting Rutte, Europe &quot;must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured&quot;; and quoting Gen Fabien, &quot;we have to accept losing our children.&quot;

Foreseeing Russia&#39;s attack on Europe, which according to Rutte will be within the next five years, there has been an element of urgency. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have signed a $4.7 billion deal, under which Ukraine will produce low-cost drones and missiles for Germany, and Germany will share software and modern defence systems with Ukraine. A similar &#39;Drone Deal&#39; is being finalised between Italy and Ukraine too. Not only this, Zelensky is signing &#39;drone deals&#39; with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and the Netherlands too.

So, let&#39;s review this. Before the Ukraine War, the EU and NATO had made regime change attempts in several pro-Soviet states, like the Rose Revolution in Georgia (2003) and Orange Revolution in Ukraine (2004). Every time Russia protested but could do nothing. More and more states from post-Soviet space were being admitted into the EU and NATO. But when it came to Belarus and Ukraine, Russia drew a redline and said it would intervene militarily because NATO was encircling it and was literally going for militarisation along its boarders. In fact, it was Europe that wanted to corner and attack Russia, not the other way around.

Stubborn as it was, Europe pursued Ukraine&#39;s admission into NATO even when it knew that this would result in the destruction of Ukraine and the displacement of millions of Ukrainians. Even now Europe is constantly pumping Zelensky to carry on with an unwinnable war that will delay the country&#39;s reconstruction forever, despite knowing that it can&#39;t defeat Russia. Rather, Europe&#39;s solution for Ukraine seems to be to make it a &#39;military state&#39; to produce weapons and rent its troops for future wars that Europe or its Middle East clients would demand.

Rather, Europe is choosing &#39;war economy&#39; as the solution to its crumbling economy. At the European Industry Summit in February, Belgian PM Bart De Wever warned, &quot;We are on the brink of an existential crisis&quot;. Elaborating, he said, &quot;Energy prices, competitiveness, dumping and regulatory pressure&quot; had pushed parts of European industry to the brink, and &quot;if Europe wants to matter in the world, our industry must first matter to Europe.&quot;

But no, why think humanely, why have sagacity - if Europe can&#39;t compete, why not go for wars and destroy the competition!

Is this what Europe will yield, after centuries of scientific thinking, after industrialisation, liberalism and feminism! After all the lectures on human rights, freedom and democracy, is Europe making a turn towards pre-colonial adventurism, which was brute, barbaric, murderous and genocidal!

Was the free-market open competition there only until it suited the white collar and blue tie politico-economic elite of the West! Till the profits were pouring in and till humanity was economically subservient, the West was the loudest advocate of free-market; but when it could not compete, it started talking about protectionism. Now they&#39;re telling their own people to prepare to sacrifice their lives so that the market and political elite of Europe can regain a global hegemony they have become habitual of. The bad habit of power and control, like any drug, is hard to give up, but carrying it on is also suicidal, because the crumbling body cannot sustain the load of pure ecstasy that is merely eating up whatever is remaining.

The right thing for you to do is to admit your failures, decrease hourly wages in your countries, bring back industry and re-enter the market. Decades back, the US was the core and China and the Global South were the periphery. Everyone toed the line, accepted capitalism and followed the system. Now, when China is rising and the Global South has consolidated, the US and the West are being pushed to the periphery. So now they want to break the system and remake it. But the remaking is sadly based on wars, chaos and destruction, and humanity needs to save itself from another era of misery, carnage and degression.]]>
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			<title>Human touch: art, authorship and algorithms</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605729/human-touch-art-authorship-and-algorithms</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605729/human-touch-art-authorship-and-algorithms#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Thu, 30 Apr 26 19:53:57 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Sadia Pasha Kamran]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2605729</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[In an era when technology can summarise facts, what becomes central is not just knowledge but authority and agency]]>
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				<![CDATA[To fellow investigators and the curious learners,

Building on my last letter &#39;In the age of AI, it is Art History&#39; and after attending compelling workshops on co-teaching with AI, I&#39;m tempted to let available tools write this letter for me. These could, with the right prompts, mimic my &#39;old English&#39; style, vocabulary and grammar, learnt from the proud teachers of what was once known as the King&#39;s English - or is it the Queen&#39;s? I&#39;ll have to google that. But then, who appreciates that speech? So, I&#39;ll write the way I write and leave it to you to &#39;humanise&#39; or &#39;dehumanise&#39; it to best suit your generation - whether you&#39;re a Baby Boomer, Millennial or Gen Z - assuming the Alphas and Omegas aren&#39;t into reading letters anyway.

We are living through a profound shift in the production, dissemination and evaluation of knowledge. In such an era, how do we write or teach Art History? The central challenge is clear: In an era when technology can summarise facts, what becomes central is not just knowledge but authority and agency. For decades, Art History was a quest for archives - a record of names, dates and movements. Today, in the shadow of AI, we move beyond &#39;who, when and what&#39; to examine sovereignty: Who has the authority to create? What is being subjugated? How will it impact us? This shift transforms making from a technical process into a dialogue of power, authority and cultural ownership. Creativity is no longer only about the final product, but the agency behind it - the creator&#39;s intention, the work&#39;s origins and its legal protections or copy-rights. Ultimately, authorship is being redefined by the critical conversations technology prompts and the voices it might overshadow.

The recent show at the O&#39; Art Space, titled &#39;She Who Creates&#39;, stirs up a similar debate. The exhibition explores ideas of birth, identity and gender. Now, AI can synthesise a thousand years of South Asian visual culture in a few seconds to write a review. It can, in the case of Amra Khan&#39;s works, highlight the gilding technique, the blue colour or the coded iconography; however, we must recognise that the AI algorithm is a scavenger of the &#39;already made&#39; or the &#39;popular narrative&#39;. It lacks the productive difficulty of the writer or the craftsman - the essential dialogue between the hand and the mind that defines human agency. This agency is found in the physical labour of indigo or lapis lazuli, the precise geometry of the Indo-Persian painting tradition or the representation of an individual who defies convention and invites new ways of seeing - or if nothing else, the choice of a vintage frame.

Rahat Naveed Masud, in her signature style, employs the duality of meaning suggested by both title and visual, where mother and tree symbolise nature&#39;s protection. Sadaf Naeem identifies patterns in garden shadows, weaving light and dark into life&#39;s tapestry, while Laila Rehman reimagines the churail, blending folklore with feminine power and basic human instinct. The other works are also remarkable which collectively verify the creative excellence of the group and stand as a testament to making as an act of resistance, a reclamation of cultural sovereignty and a celebration of womanhood.

I asked my non-art-major students to review the show and append a single word to its title. Their playful replies - She Who Creates Illusions, Fantasy, Wonder, Trouble - reveal the public&#39;s pulse. By requiring close observation and personal reflection over generic critique, I prioritised originality and ethics. Later, we compared these human responses to AI-generated titles to spark a harder conversation: Who trains the algorithms? Whose stories are silenced? In the shadow of AI, bias and ownership are no longer abstract - they are the new frontlines of representation.

Like the camera before it, AI alters the mechanics of making. Art History has become a trialogue between artist, viewer and algorithm; yet, while tools process data, they lack living context. My advice is simple: use AI, but do not be used by it. Centre your own voice. Engage your peers and defend your agency. Go forward and challenge your communities to create with authenticity, ensuring that the &#39;thumbprint&#39; of the human remains the defining mark of this evolving landscape.

Your sincerely,

Bano

May 2026]]>
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			<title>The politics of belonging in West Bengal</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605725/the-politics-of-belonging-in-west-bengal</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605725/the-politics-of-belonging-in-west-bengal#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Thu, 30 Apr 26 19:53:56 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Syed Mohammad Ali.]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2605725</guid>
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				<![CDATA[A closely contested state, where electoral competition btw major parties intersects]]>
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				<![CDATA[Amidst India&#39;s recurrent cycle of state elections, West Bengal has often been viewed as a politically significant and closely contested state, where electoral competition between major parties intersects with deeper debates over identity, governance and citizenship. Recent debate over pre-election revisions to electoral rolls has revived questions about inclusion in India&#39;s democratic process and the ways electoral legitimacy is being shaped and potentially manipulated.

Voter list revisions are meant to be a routine administrative exercise carried out by the Election Commission of India. These updates are intended to remove deceased voters, eliminate duplicate entries and update records of individuals who have permanently relocated. Such revisions are standard practice across all Indian states, as in many other democratic countries, and are considered essential for maintaining accurate electoral rolls.

However, in West Bengal, these routine processes have generated heightened political attention. Claims about the scale and impact of voter deletions vary widely, but the exact figures and demographic composition of removed names are difficult to independently verify. However, concerns have been raised in public debate that some Muslim communities within the state may have been disproportionately affected by discrepancies in the voter lists, with numerous individuals having reported their names to be missing from the revised voter lists.

West Bengal&#39;s political sensitivity cannot be separated from its history. Bordering Bangladesh, the state has long experienced migration flows shaped by the partition of Indian subcontinent in 1947 and the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. Such turbulent events created significant displacement, resulting in cross-border social and familial ties, while also generating complex questions of documentation and citizenship.

Thus, electoral records in West Bengal are not merely administrative lists. They are widely perceived as records that define political belonging. For many citizens, especially poorer and marginalised communities, access to formal documentation can be uneven due to socioeconomic constraints, mobility or administrative barriers, rather than questions of legal citizenship.

Even Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the All India Trinamool Congress expressed concern that hurried scale electoral record revisions may have disenfranchised many eligible voters instead. Conversely, the Bharatiya Janata Party has defended voter roll revisions as necessary for ensuring electoral integrity. Skeptics have suggested that these revisions are likely to help the BJP secure power in another key state.

Such contentions are linked to other contentious measures such as the Citizenship (Amendment) Act and proposed citizenship verification frameworks like the National Register of Citizens. Critics have been persistently pointing out how the BJP&#39;s reliance on seemingly neutral documentation-based systems risks disenfranchising vulnerable groups, particularly Indian Muslims. There are currently no official statistics demonstrating that voter list revisions in West Bengal have systematically excluded individuals on religious grounds. Yet, independent media outlets such as Al Jazeera have reported that Muslims were &quot;disproportionately&quot; affected following the removal of around nine million voters from electoral rolls prior to the recently concluded state elections.

Ultimately, what is unfolding in West Bengal illustrates how questions of documentation, identity and trust are increasingly shaping participation in India&#39;s democracy. The integrity of elections depends not only on accurate voter lists, but also on the transparency and credibility of the processes used to compile them. This ongoing controversy surrounding voter list management further complicate India&#39;s claim to be the world&#39;s largest democracy.]]>
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			<title>The problems beyond science</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605122/the-problems-beyond-science</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605122/the-problems-beyond-science#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Mon, 27 Apr 26 19:34:23 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Muhammad Hamid Zaman]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2605122</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Complete disregard for scientific findings and predictions, which are not disputed on merit or ethics]]>
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				<![CDATA[The idea of science-based policy in a society is a relatively simple one. Let rigorous science generate evidence for what works and what does not, and then incorporate those findings in a policy to benefit society. Of course, it is much easier said than done. Scientific findings can be murky and different studies can contradict each other. Research funded by for-profit entities can be biased and steer researchers in a direction that are good for the companies, but not necessarily the public. Thinking only about the good of the majority may mean minority groups that are vulnerable or historically marginalised may continue to suffer. Lately, pushback through misinformation on issues ranging from vaccines to climate change has further undermined the foundational ideas of science-based policy.

And then there is something else. A complete disregard for scientific findings and predictions, which are not disputed on merit or ethics, but simply because there is no interest in pursuing them. In 2019, when an HIV outbreak in rural Sindh made international headlines, many in the public health sector of the country had warned that this was unlikely to be an anomaly. In fact, infectious disease researchers had been warning about micro epidemics in other parts of the country, including southern Punjab. In 2024, when a cluster of patients were infected with HIV at the dialysis unit at Nishtar Hospital in Multan due to criminal negligence, public health practitioners had warned once again about other likely outbreaks. We now know that they were right. Another outbreak, this time in Taunsa, has affected several hundred children who were given the disease by those who were entrusted to treat them.

The BBC report that uncovered the awful tragedy in Taunsa is difficult to watch. Those children, whose lives have been permanently altered, are not some distant people; they are our own children. We see a pattern here we have seen in other outbreaks before. A pattern of denial by the doctors in charge. A pattern of deflection from those who were supposed to fix the system. Other conversations have focused on the tenure of a former chief minister who is from the region or whether the HIV outbreak here is more or less severe than the one in Sindh. These are not particularly serious questions. However, some other important questions remain unanswered. For example, how come these things only happen in the poorest parts of our society? Why is it that our own news organisations, often interested in delivering real or imaginary breaking news at breakneck speed, rarely go for an in-depth investigations of this kind? Which news organisations have dedicated health reporters on their staff to report on myriad health challenges in the country? Why isn&#39;t there more serious and sustained conversation on health crises in the country?

It is not hard to imagine that what happened in Taunsa is likely to repeat again &ndash; in another area, in another province. And HIV is just one of the many on the list of likely diseases.

If we know the mechanism of disease transmission, which in the case of most communicable diseases in our midst is well-established, recognise the underfunding of control mechanisms, and combine it with deeply rooted issues of medical negligence, stigma, corruption and lack of accountability, predicting an outbreak is not very difficult. The science part is actually quite straightforward. There is no alternate theory here and no competing hypothesis. In the world of science guiding policy, this does not have the naysayers or the vaccine skeptics. What we see is something else &ndash; a lack of concern for the poor, and our inability to care for them. The problem here is one that cannot be solved by science.]]>
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			<title>The blue economy mirage</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605548/the-blue-economy-mirage</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605548/the-blue-economy-mirage#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Wed, 29 Apr 26 21:14:09 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Dr Aneel Salman]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2605548</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Growth projections hinge on reforms not yet implemented]]>
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				<![CDATA[The Planning Commission&#39;s &#39;Blue Economy&#39; report, which came out a few days ago under URAAN Pakistan 2026, is ambitious, useful and institutionally overdue. But economically, it suffers from a familiar Pakistani policy dilemma: potential is treated as output, geography as strategy, and aspiration as evidence.

The report correctly defines &#39;Blue Economy&#39; as sustainable ocean-based economic activity that generates growth, livelihoods and jobs while preserving marine ecosystems. Yet much of the document quickly moves from &#39;sustainable ocean economy&#39; to a sectoral investment catalogue: aquaculture, Gwadar, ports, shipbreaking, shipping, offshore energy, desalination and coastal tourism. These are relevant sectors, but a sector&#39;s existence does not mean it is already contributing to GDP, exports, jobs or welfare.

A critical limitation of the framework is the absence of a rigorous marine economic accounting baseline. Estimates such as the Blue Economy contributing &#39;around 1% of GDP&#39; remain conceptually ambiguous without clarity on valuation methodology and sectoral boundaries. In contrast, a Gross Marine Product (GMP) approach applies national accounting principles to ocean-based activity.

This was undertaken in a study by this scribe at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, which estimates Pakistan&#39;s marine economy for FY2023 at approximately $1.027 billion (around 0.34% of GDP), with a highly concentrated structure: fisheries 41%, mangroves 34%, shipbreaking 14%, marine transport about 11%, and marine tourism a negligible 0.003%.

Such a composition is analytically important as it highlights a resource-dependent, natural-capital-heavy economy, where ecosystem services, particularly mangroves, constitute a substantial share of value. Consequently, expansion strategies focused on aquaculture, infrastructure, or industrial activity must be assessed not only in terms of gross output gains but also potential natural capital depreciation, otherwise there is a risk of an overstatement of Pakistan&#39;s Blue Economy&#39;s true economic contribution.

There is no doubt that the Planning Commission&#39;s report is forward-looking. However, it is not sufficiently accounting-led. It projects a $4 billion impact by 2030, including $1.5 billion from aquaculture, $1 billion from shipping savings and $0.5 billion each from tourism, shipbreaking and shipbuilding. These are not impossible numbers, but they are conditional macroeconomic wishes.

They require land conversion, hatcheries, feed systems, disease surveillance, SPS compliance, cold chains, private capital, security, port reforms, fleet financing, HKC-compliant shipbreaking and export-market credibility. The report lists reforms, but the projections assume the reforms have already succeeded.

Its aquaculture proposal is economically attractive but institutionally underpriced. Cluster-based shrimp farming can raise exports and reduce pressure on marine capture fisheries. However, the report treats saline mudflats as idle assets. In blue economics, an &#39;empty&#39; mudflat may be an ecological production unit as a nursery habitat, carbon sink, storm buffer and livelihood support system.

If mangroves represent 34% of measured GMP, then careless aquaculture expansion can destroy natural capital to create export revenue. That is not transformation; that is balance-sheet fraud against nature.

The report is also heavy on gross flows and light on net value added. Shipping &#39;savings&#39; are not the same as GDP contribution. Shipbuilding import substitution is not automatically efficient if domestic costs exceed world prices.

Tourism foreign exchange is not welfare-enhancing if it creates coastal land speculation, ecological degradation and exclusion of fishing communities. Port expansion is not productive unless dwell time, customs friction, hinterland logistics and rail connectivity actually improve.

Factually, many claims are directionally sound: fisheries are overexploited, fish exports remain low-value, Gwadar has not generated sustained cargo, PNSC carries only a small share of national cargo needs, and Gaddani has declined sharply. The weakness is not the diagnosis. The weakness is economic discipline. The report knows the symptoms, but writes the prescription in PowerPoint dosage.

A realistic Blue Economy framework for Pakistan should start with three questions:

First, what is the measured marine value added today?

Second, what is the natural capital depreciation caused by the proposed growth?

Third, what urgent and immediate institutional reforms can convert ocean potential into bankable, exportable, sustainable output?

Pakistan&#39;s Blue Economy is not waiting in Gwadar alone; it is already alive in our fisheries, mangroves, coastal livelihoods, shipbreaking and marine transport. However, unlocking its full economic and environmental potential requires a shift from fragmented activity to structured measurement through the development of Blue Economic Accounting, marine satellite accounts, ecosystem valuation frameworks and evidence-based budgeting that can quantify contributions, guide policy trade-offs and ensure long-term sustainability.]]>
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			<title>US-Iran stand-off: conflicting perspectives</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605547/us-iran-stand-off-conflicting-perspectives</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605547/us-iran-stand-off-conflicting-perspectives#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Wed, 29 Apr 26 21:14:09 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Inam Ul Haque]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
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			<description>
				<![CDATA[Global markets react as US-Iran tensions disrupt energy flows]]>
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				<![CDATA[The impasse in the second round of peace talks stems from Iran exhibiting intransigence and the US considering these parleys as a waste of time, for Iran not conceding on the core demand of halting uranium enrichment. The US proposals envisage a concurrent two-stage process, including ending the war first, and simultaneously addressing more contentious issues, like Iran&#39;s nuclear programme.

The Iranian proposition spans a sequenced framework; ending hostilities first, followed by CBMs like removing the maritime blockade, and thereafter the broader negotiations. Tehran wants the removal of the blockade as a precondition for further talks. Its approach comprises immediate de-escalation, while preserving the leverage (SoH) for the longer-term settlement.

Contrarily, the US considers postponement of nuclear discussions a risk, which weakens its centrality. Washington also cites &#39;tremendous infighting and confusion&#39; within Iranian leadership, where the IRGC/Pasdaran is considered to be calling the shots, and not the political leadership, after the killing of the country&#39;s civil and military leadership.

In a nutshell, Tehran seeks phased relief and recognition of its position, whereas Washington requires comprehensive guarantees upfront. Pakistan is trying hard to &#39;narrow the differences&#39; before a second formal meeting. However, there seems to be an agreement on keeping the ceasefire open-ended, allowing time for diplomats to address complex issues.

President Trump cancelled a planned Islamabad trip by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, announcing that Iran could call, once ready. Iran has, for now, shunned a face-off with the US and instead prefers dealing through intermediaries, due to a trust deficit and President Trump&#39;s eroding credibility. Consequently, the SoH remains closed in double blockade by US CENTCOM and IRGC, choking most of the Gulf LNG supply and around 20% of the global oil shipments, destined mainly for Asia, comprising 85% of its energy needs.

In global markets, major US stock indices (S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq) have hit record highs, due to robust energy trading, whereas the broader global market is pressured because of supply inconsistency and risks. With global oil prices hovering over $100-$109 a barrel, companies like Exxon and Aramco have reaped hefty profits; however, gas station inflation has hit international and US consumers hard.

Defence stocks have surged, and companies like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and Boeing are primary beneficiaries of this conflict. Chip stocks have registered gains for AI firms like Intel. Likewise, yields on the 10-year US Treasury bonds have risen. Gold has edged higher, as investors are increasingly shifting towards safer stocks.

Against this backdrop and despite no immediate prospects of direct talks, backchannel diplomacy remains active. Iran&#39;s FM Abbas Araghchi returned to Islamabad on April 25 after visiting Oman, travelling on a Pakistani aircraft, and later meeting Gen Asim Munir. Araghchi carried written messages outlining Tehran&#39;s position on key issues, like its &#39;nuclear red lines and SoH&#39;.

He later travelled to St Petersburg, where he met President Putin, Iran&#39;s close ally. Several regional countries are also actively involved in de-escalation. Araghchi also made separate contacts with Qatari and Saudi counterparts. GCC and Saudi Arabia want their concerns to be &#39;reflected&#39; in the peace process. Turkey is also engaging the US, Iran and Oman.

President Trump has desisted from incendiary posts on social media, and has not indicated resuming hostilities; and the fragile ceasefire is so far holding. It seems that, given the stakes, both sides do not want to return to a shooting war &ndash; the US for domestic political costs, due to depleting ammunition stocks, and given the world reaction; and Iran because of attrition it has suffered and the economic fallout from the maritime blockade. Although Iran publicly sticks to defiance and declares not to enter &#39;imposed negotiations&#39; under threats or blockade.

As a side development, Hezbollah in Lebanon refuses to be part of the ceasefire with Israel, brokered last week in Washington. Hezbollah&#39;s five peace conditionalities include: a) halt to Israeli aggression; b) withdrawal from occupied lands; c) prisoner release; d) displaced Lebanese returning to their homes; and e) reconstruction.

This seemingly is an over-ask, given the military situation on the ground, and the crushing blows suffered by Hezbollah in this war. Hezbollah, as an indispensable powerbroker, is trying to raise the &#39;stakes for parties mediating the conflict&#39; and is simply bypassing the Lebanese government, which is eager for a settlement with Israel. That conflict, hence, will likely complicate the US-Iran mediations.

On the Iranian side, the sentiment seems more confident, hawkish and understandably angry. After absorbing and retaliating to the US-Israeli onslaught for over a month, the IRGC, with residual military capability, could perhaps continue the combat for up to three more months. Besides, the IRGC and most of the world consider restoration of peace squarely a US responsibility which, along with its prot&eacute;g&eacute; Israel, started this unnecessary war of choice.

Internally, IRGC is in the driving seat; however, ironically, generals are not known as great peacemakers and compromisers, given their training and outlook. Their world is a binary of black and white, with little or no shades of grey, and that remains the hallmark of politicians. Aligning the IRGC&#39;s worldview and conflict outlook with political reality would be a tough ask and lengthy process, especially after the stalemate that the IRGC has imposed on the mighty US-Israel coalition.

Ayatullah Mojtaba Khamenei was severely wounded on the first day of the war, suffering injuries to one hand and one leg and burn wounds to the face and lips. He is now awaiting a prosthetic leg. He reportedly speaks with difficulty and will eventually need to undergo plastic surgery. His own ties to the IRGC, his appointment as an IRGC favourite, his health, his reclusiveness due to security concerns, and the imperatives of regime survival bring the IRGC to the forefront as a lead player in deciding strategy and resource allocation.

Attacks on Israel and US interests in the Arab world, besides the blockade of SoH, are the Guards&#39; strategic interests. Additionally, the generals reckon that they have contained the threat, hence the continued defiance. It was they who agreed to the ceasefire and who prevailed upon the Iranian government not to send their delegation to the Islamabad Peace Talks 2.0.

Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, too, has an IRGC background, and several Guard generals participated as delegates in Islamabad Talks 1.0. Some fringe firebrands, like the ultra-hardline Saeed Jalili, continue to influence the media.

So, fingers are still crossed!]]>
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			<title>Fake degrees proliferate</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605545/fake-degrees-proliferate</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605545/fake-degrees-proliferate#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Wed, 29 Apr 26 21:14:09 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2605545</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Fake degree crackdown highlights need for universal digital attestation]]>
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				<![CDATA[Another chapter has been added to Pakistan&#39;s rich history of academic fraud, with 1,200 lawyers being sent notices by the Punjab Bar Council regarding the authentication of their degrees. In all likelihood, only a small fraction of the lawyers would actually have suspicious qualifications, as the most common problem in such disputes is simply the unwillingness of some people to jump through hoops to have their qualifications verified.

To its credit, the Higher Education Commission has taken several steps to improve the process, including initiating a blockchain-based attestation system that will automatically integrate graduate records from institutions. Under this framework, degrees will be added to the HEC blockchain upon graduation, granting students immediate digital access while enabling employers, government bodies and embassies to verify credentials with a single click.

The HEC must move decisively to expand its programme from the current 25 participating universities to making it compulsory for all degree-awarding institutions, public and private. If the system is to truly serve its purpose, every degree issued in Pakistan must be automatically deposited into the database the moment graduation requirements are met. Half measures will not suffice when the stakes include the national workforce&#39;s credibility and international mobility of our graduates, along with public trust in higher education itself.

The government also needs to stop offering amnesty to fake degree holders through regularisation and other means. Such benefits should only be open to people who make honest mistakes. Lying about your qualifications on a job application is straight-up fraud, and under many circumstances, a jailable crime. At the bare minimum, they should be fired and replaced by scores of deserving employees and job applicants who actually earned their qualifications, especially in government departments. Anything less would be government endorsement of defrauding taxpayers.]]>
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			<title>Solar relief</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605544/solar-relief</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605544/solar-relief#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Wed, 29 Apr 26 21:14:09 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2605544</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Solar sector gains clarity as licensing rules for small systems are dropped]]>
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				<![CDATA[The recent back-and-forth over solar regulations has worked to confuse even the most engaged consumers. Nepra&#39;s latest decision to abolish the licensing requirement and fee for solar systems of up to 25 kilowatts under net metering is therefore a welcome correction. It removes an unnecessary hurdle and restores a degree of sanity to a sector that has increasingly become central to household survival.

For months, the impression took hold that the state was intent on &quot;taxing sunlight&quot;. Whether that perception was entirely accurate is beside the point. Policy signals matter, and the earlier move to impose a Rs1,000 per kW licensing fee while centralising approvals with Nepra sent precisely the wrong message. At a time when fuel costs and unreliable grid supply are pushing citizens toward self-generation, such measures appeared punitive.

The reversal, prompted by public pressure and industry pushback, effectively restores the spirit of the 2015 distributed generation framework. Small consumers can once again install rooftop solar systems without navigating an additional regulatory maze or incurring upfront fees. That matters not just for affordability but for momentum. Pakistan&#39;s solar uptake has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise strained energy landscape.

However, it cannot be ignored that when it comes to solar, policy inconsistency has become the norm. The same authorities that flirted with shifting net metering to net billing are now positioning themselves as pro-solar.

Clarity is now essential. First, the government must commit to a stable net metering regime with clearly defined timelines and protections for existing and future consumers. Second, distribution companies need streamlined processes that do not shift arbitrarily between decentralised and centralised approvals. Pakistan does not have the luxury of policy whiplash in its energy transition. Demand is rising and capacity payments are choking public finances.]]>
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			<title>Afghan brinkmanship</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605543/afghan-brinkmanship</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605543/afghan-brinkmanship#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Wed, 29 Apr 26 21:14:09 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2605543</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Border tensions rise as Pakistan hits Taliban targets after ceasefire breach]]>
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				<![CDATA[The Afghan Taliban are once again in breach of trust as they carried out unprovoked firing along the border with Pakistan. This is a negation of the Urumqi accord brokered under Chinese mediation that led to the cessation of hostilities between the two countries. Pakistan&#39;s security forces had no choice but to retaliate under Operation Ghazab Lil Haq, destroying several military check-posts and hideouts of terrorists inside Afghanistan.

The precision-guided air strikes across Chaman and in Laghman province reportedly dismantled an arms depot, the ABF battalion headquarters and the Nangarhar brigade. A Taliban post near the Mohmand sector was also rooted out in what appeared to be a carefully-guarded and well-calculated response from Pakistani forces against Afghan military targets in line with international law.

This disruption speaks of Kabul&#39;s agenda to keep the region on tenterhooks. The reclusive regime is playing into the hands of a global terror nexus, aptly supported by Indian intelligence agencies. This claim stands substantiated as al-Qaeda has recently admitted its collusion with the Afghan Taliban.

This nefarious collaboration has repeatedly been documented by the UN, too. It goes without saying that this phenomenon of exporting terrorism is undermining regional stability, derailing geo-economics and devastating the social fabric of Pakistan, which is primarily on the receiving end.

Pakistan is well within its rights to go ahead with hot-pursuit operations against the Afghan authorities. Such operations are solely meant to dismantle the terror infrastructure and deter Taliban rulers from aligning themselves with rogue elements. At a time when the entire region is in a state of flux amid the US-Israeli aggression against Iran, this brinkmanship from the Afghans is unwarranted.

The fact that Kabul is unmindful of problems being faced by its own people in the form of hunger, employment and lack of security, is nothing but callousness. Taliban must rescind this policy of otherness and hate.]]>
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			<title>Child marriage law</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605322/child-marriage-law</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2605322/child-marriage-law#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 26 20:07:23 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2605322</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Punjab raises marriage age, but Pakistan’s fragmented laws still enable child marriage]]>
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				<![CDATA[Child marriage in Pakistan has never been sustained by law alone. Instead, it has survived because the law itself has remained fractured. The passage of the Child Marriage Restraint Bill 2026 by the Punjab Assembly is therefore significant for what it exposes across the federation, which is a deeply uneven legal regime.

Punjab&#39;s decision to raise the minimum age to 18 for both boys and girls and criminalise violations with stronger penalties brings it closer to a rights-based framework. Yet the larger picture remains inconsistent. Sindh has, since 2014, maintained the most progressive position, setting 18 as the minimum age for both genders and criminalising child marriage with enforceable penalties.

That law has survived legal scrutiny, including review by the Federal Shariat Court, strengthening its legitimacy. More recently, Balochistan has also moved in the same direction. Its 2025 legislation raised the legal age to 18 and introduced penalties for facilitators, signalling a shift in a province where enforcement challenges remain significant, but intent is now clearer.

The real outlier is Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Despite repeated attempts, legislation to raise the age has stalled. As a result, the province still largely operates under the colonial-era Child Marriage Restraint Act of 1929, where the minimum age for girls remains 16.

The same outdated threshold continues to apply in several other jurisdictions, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir. This patchwork creates a legal absurdity. A girl deemed a child in Karachi, or Quetta, can still be legally married in parts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

Punjab&#39;s move, then, is a move in the right direction. Laws alone will not end child marriage, but inconsistent laws ensure it persists. A national consensus - whether through parliamentary legislation or judicial direction - must establish 18 as a non-negotiable minimum age across Pakistan.]]>
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			<title>Modern Tech Leadership: Building Systems That Scale</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2545646/modern-tech-leadership-building-systems-that-scale</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2545646/modern-tech-leadership-building-systems-that-scale#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Tue, 13 May 25 18:54:31 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Shaukat Ali Khan]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2545646</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[The author is Advisor to the President, Aga Khan University.]]>
			</description>
			<content:encoded>
				<![CDATA[In the crucible of modern technology leadership, where AI advancements outpace human adaptation and market shifts occur in real time, a new paradigm has emerged. The most effective tech leaders no longer rely on individual brilliance alone; they architect organizational systems that transform pressure into performance.

Recent data reveals a troubling reality: 61% of tech executives report unsustainable stress levels (Harvard Business Review), while leadership fatigue costs the industry $300 billion annually in lost productivity (Deloitte). These numbers underscore a fundamental truth &mdash; the challenges of tech leadership have evolved beyond what any individual can manage through sheer willpower.

The unique pressures facing tech leaders manifest in three critical dimensions. Decision-making occurs against a backdrop of exponential data growth, with IDC reporting that global data volumes double every two years &mdash; a reality that leaves 49% of tech leaders experiencing decision paralysis (MIT Sloan). Alignment becomes increasingly fragile in distributed engineering teams, where Gallup finds only 28% of technologists feel deeply connected to their company&#39;s mission. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization documents a 35% surge in leadership burnout since 2020, particularly acute in the tech sector&rsquo;s always-on culture.

What separates thriving tech leaders from those who merely survive? The answer lies in systematic approaches to five fundamental pillars of leadership. Vision in technology organizations must be both aspirational and adaptable. McKinsey research confirms that tech companies with dynamic, clearly articulated visions grow 1.5 times faster than competitors. Microsoft&rsquo;s transformation under Satya Nadella exemplifies this principle, where reframing the company&rsquo;s mission around empowerment rather than devices catalyzed a trillion-dollar market cap surge while increasing engineering team alignment by 32% (Harvard Business Review).

Transparency serves as the operating system for modern tech organizations. In an industry where Gartner reports 70% of technical initiatives fail to meet objectives, Gallup data shows that teams with transparent leaders demonstrate 3.5 times higher engagement. This principle manifests in radical openness &mdash; from GitLab&rsquo;s 6,000-page public handbook to Datadog&rsquo;s transparent incident postmortems &mdash; practices that Aberdeen Group links to 47% higher shareholder returns in tech companies.

The velocity of technological change demands unprecedented decisiveness. Stanford research indicates that hesitation costs tech firms 30% in lost innovation speed, while Bain &amp; Company data reveals that leaders who make critical decisions within 48 hours of receiving data drive 40% faster growth. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang&rsquo;s 2006 bet on CUDA architecture, made against prevailing wisdom, demonstrates how such decisive leadership builds enduring competitive advantage in the AI era.

Resilience in tech leadership requires more than personal fortitude &mdash; it demands institutionalized systems for recovery. The Journal of Applied Psychology documents that resilient tech leaders drive 25% more innovation output, with MIT research showing 82% attribute their success to structured problem-solving frameworks rather than individual heroics. Apple&rsquo;s resurgence under Steve Jobs emerged not from charismatic leadership alone, but from implementing ruthless product prioritization systems that transformed a billion-dollar loss into a $350 billion valuation.

Stakeholder trust functions as technical debt for tech leaders &mdash; it compounds quietly but determines long-term viability. PwC&rsquo;s CEO Survey finds 85% of tech leaders directly link trust to valuation, a connection exemplified by AMD&rsquo;s Lisa Su, who rebuilt investor confidence through transparent technology roadmaps after near collapse. Edelman data confirms that tech companies maintaining high stakeholder trust achieve 2.5 times greater revenue growth during market fluctuations.

The most forward-thinking tech leaders recognize that sustainable success emerges from systems rather than individual brilliance. Harvard research demonstrates that structured decision frameworks reduce deliberation time by 50% &mdash; critical when AI models can obsolete strategies overnight. McKinsey findings show that teams with clear systems adapt 60% faster to disruptions like API deprecations or supply chain shocks. Even failures become accelerants when properly analysed. Stanford studies reveal that tech organizations conducting rigorous postmortems improve 30% faster after setbacks.

This new leadership calculus represents a fundamental shift in how tech organizations scale. The most effective leaders don&rsquo;t simply make better decisions &mdash; they build better decision-making systems. They don&rsquo;t just communicate; they engineer transparency into their organizational DNA. They recognize that in an era of continuous deployment and real-time market shifts, sustainable leadership comes not from being the smartest engineer in the room, but from creating environments where every engineer can perform at their best. As artificial intelligence reshapes the technological landscape, this systematic approach to leadership may prove to be the ultimate competitive advantage.

The data leaves little room for debate &mdash; the future belongs to tech leaders who architect organizations as thoughtfully as they design systems. In doing so, they transform the overwhelming complexity of modern technology leadership from a crisis to be managed into a competitive edge to be leveraged. The organizations that embrace this paradigm won&rsquo;t just survive the coming waves of disruption &mdash; they&rsquo;ll define them.]]>
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			<title>Hurdles in materialization of GCC’s economic ventures in Pakistan</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517229/hurdles-in-materialization-of-gccs-economic-ventures-in-pakistan</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517229/hurdles-in-materialization-of-gccs-economic-ventures-in-pakistan#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 20 Dec 24 05:55:06 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Syed Ahmed Ali]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2517229</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Pakistan must boost economic productivity to enhance trade ties with GCC countries and ensure sustainable growth.]]>
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				<![CDATA[The organization of the Gulf Cooperation Council was formed in 1981 which consists of six states: Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. The Gulf region is one of the most resource-rich areas namely crude oil and gas. In recent years the GCC countries have reduced their dependency on energy trade and promoted economic diversification. To pursue their economic diversification initiative, GCC countries have engaged in cooperation with other regions such as South Asia, which offers key resources and technical expertise. Pakistan being a member state of the South Asian region, stands at the crossroads to either connect itself with external regions such as the Middle East or risk economic isolation.

Huma Yusuf in an article titled &ldquo;Wide Gulf&rdquo; analyzed the GCC approach to the South Asian region, which seems to develop economic relations with India while maintaining military cooperation with Pakistan on specific security issues alongside occasional economic packages to aid Pakistan&rsquo;s ailing economy. Pakistan&rsquo;s GCC policy prioritizes political and security issues over developing economic relations. As noted by Shashank Joshi, Pakistan&rsquo;s relations with Arab states seem to be military-centric. As a consequence, Pakistan&#39;s economy suffers from a lack of a conducive environment for economic productivity and regional integration.

Pakistan&#39;s economic cooperation with GCC states while still in its infancy does touch some important sectors which need to be explored. The most important sector between Pakistan and the GCC economic relations is the energy trade. In July 2023, Saudi Arabia announced that it would invest 10 billion dollars in Gwadar, Balochistan to construct an oil refinery, which would help with GCC energy exports in the South Asian region. In the same year, the UAE signed a memorandum (MoU) for the possibility of developing renewable energy in Pakistan. In 2016 Qatar became a major supplier of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to Pakistan through its LNG terminal agreement which was worth 15 billion dollars for a 15-year supply.

Apart from helping the energy sector, the GCC has also helped develop the Infrastructure of Pakistan, particularly in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. On the 22nd of October 2022, Saudi Arabia agreed to fund infrastructure projects in Neelum Valley and Muzaffarabad worth 30 billion rupees as a part of its Saudi Fund for Development (SFD). The SFD is a Saudi government assistance program that helps provide financial assistance to developing countries. Apart from providing financial aid to governmental projects, the GCC is a major investor in the real estate business in Pakistan. In 2013 Malik Riaz of the Bahria Group and Sheikh Nahyan of the Abu Dhabi Group invested 45 billion dollars in Pakistan&rsquo;s real estate industry, where they invested 10 billion dollars in Lahore and 35 billion in Karachi.

Apart from the real estate industry, the GCC countries have made a significant impact on various sectors of Pakistan&rsquo;s economy. In 2009 the Saudi government leased 500,000 acres of agricultural land from Pakistan to grow wheat as a means to ensure Saudi food security. Apart from the agricultural industry, the GCC supports Pakistani manufacturing by importing construction materials like cement. In 2004 Pakistan received a demand for cement of about 2000 tons per week from the UAE, which was supplied by Lucky Cement, DG Khan, and Attock In the field of fertilizer production Saudi Companies like SABIC have invested in Pakistan&rsquo;s fertilizer manufacturing through National Chemical Fertilizer Company (NFC).

The investments and economic aid provided by the GCC to Pakistan are channeled through joint cooperation organizations. One such organization is the UAE-Pakistan Assistance Program (UAE-PAP) which provided 200 million dollars of economic aid to Pakistan in May 2018. The objective of this funding was to provide humanitarian assistance to the vulnerable people in Pakistan. More recently, the Saudi-Pakistan Investment Conference announced a 20 billion investment, which covered diverse areas including energy, agriculture, and the environment.

Pakistan GCC trade relations are import intensive, where Gulf investors look to attract Pakistani investment in real estate, export their energy industry, and lease agricultural lands. In 2016 the trade deficit between Pakistan and GCC countries was 1.1 billion dollars, this increased to 1.3 billion dollars in 2020. The trade relationship between GCC and Pakistan is driven by rising imports and the depreciation of the Pakistani rupee which leads to the depletion of Pakistan&rsquo;s foreign exchange reserves. This vicious cycle of rising import costs and increasing foreign debt can only be mitigated through boosting economic productivity which is essential to have a long-lasting sustainable trade relationship with the GCC.

Pakistan faces significant challenges in its governance system to boost its economic productivity. Pakistan historically has inconsistency in its policy-making owing to political instability and frequent change in governments. Pakistan lacks a shared framework of economic policies shared by all stakeholders, which often leads to disruption of the previous policies initiated by the previous government. To make matters worse Pakistan&#39;s administration system suffers from red-tapism, where bureaucratic delays and complicated forms make it difficult for potential investors to invest.

Pakistan faces an acute energy crisis, where the cost of energy makes the cost of doing business too high. This leads to industrial regression where many investors look to set up their production plants where the energy costs are low. The use of renewable energy resources such as hydroelectric power plants can help reduce the cost of energy production. Solar panel technology for localized energy production is ideal in remote areas lacking grid connectivity. Energy costs can be reduced by using localized source fuels, such as Thar coal which is a cheaper alternative than foreign imported coal.

Pakistan needs export diversification, where the government needs to encourage the growth of new industrial sectors such as IT and the pharmaceutical industry. These industries produce greater value-added products which have a greater value meaning a greater inflow of foreign currency. Pakistan can help the growth of these new industrial sectors by providing export incentives such as reducing taxes on export industries. The government can also provide technical training services to help improve labor productivity.

Through these measures, Pakistan can improve its economic productivity and increase its foreign exchange currency reserves, which is important to build a more sustainable and long-lasting trade partnership with GCC countries. Such trade relations will help Pakistan&rsquo;s economy to grow and build stronger cooperation with the Gulf region.

The writer is an analyst on Middle East and South Asia]]>
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			<title>Schrödinger’s Cat and Pakistan’s Economy: Alive, dead, or both?</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517054/schrodingers-cat-and-pakistans-economy-alive-dead-or-both</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517054/schrodingers-cat-and-pakistans-economy-alive-dead-or-both#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Thu, 19 Dec 24 10:18:40 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Dr Aneel Salman]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2517054</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Pakistan’s economy is in flux, showing signs of life but facing challenges that keep it uncertain.]]>
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				<![CDATA[Imagine a cat in a sealed box, both alive and dead at the same time&mdash;Schr&ouml;dinger&rsquo;s famous thought experiment in quantum mechanics. Now replace the cat with Pakistan&rsquo;s economy, and you have a paradox that would make even Erwin Schr&ouml;dinger scratch his head.

Is Pakistan&rsquo;s economy thriving, or is it a mirage of temporary improvements? Like the metaphorical box, the truth only reveals itself once we look deeper. On the surface, Pakistan&rsquo;s economy seems to be showing signs of life. Inflation, which was roaring just months ago, has started to ease, particularly in food prices.

In November 2024, inflation dropped sharply to 4.9%, down from over 30% in 2023, providing relief to households that have struggled with sky-high grocery bills.
From a broader perspective, fiscal and external accounts appear to be turning a corner. The government&rsquo;s disciplined spending has led to a primary surplus, a feat that many developing economies struggle to achieve.

The current account has posted a surplus for three consecutive months, indicating improved external balances. Foreign exchange reserves have crossed $12 billion for the first time in over two years, reaching $12.04 billion in November 2024, reducing immediate fears of default.
There&rsquo;s even talk of Pakistan re-entering the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which could bring much-needed foreign portfolio investments.

The stock market has responded with renewed enthusiasm, with the benchmark share index hitting a lifetime high following the IMF&rsquo;s approval of a $7 billion bailout deal.
Corporate Pakistan, despite the recent turmoil, is cautiously optimistic. Banks have reported soaring profits, with some of the highest returns in Asia, due to high-interest rates and increased government borrowing.

The technology sector has attracted international venture capital, signalling confidence in the country&rsquo;s young talent pool. Agricultural reforms, including better irrigation and the introduction of high-yield seeds, are starting to pay off. In the FMCG sector, multinationals are reporting growth as consumer demand begins to recover. Meanwhile, automotive assemblers and manufacturers are ramping up production after a prolonged slump.

But here&rsquo;s the twist: Schr&ouml;dinger&rsquo;s cat is still in the box. Is this economic revival genuinely sustainable, or is it a temporary high? Much of the current stability hinges on policy measures that are inherently short-term. Import restrictions and remittance inflows have propped up reserves, but what happens when those restrictions are lifted? Is the economy fundamentally stronger, or are we just seeing a Band-Aid over a deep wound?

Debt remains the elephant&mdash;or perhaps the tiger&mdash;in the room. Pakistan&rsquo;s external debt obligations are massive, requiring substantial foreign exchange outflows. Without consistent export growth or foreign direct investment (FDI), the current account surplus could quickly vanish. The energy sector, despite progress in renewable projects, still struggles with circular debt and over-reliance on imported fuels, making it vulnerable to global shocks.

And let&rsquo;s not forget the perpetual wild card: politics. Policy consistency and investor confidence often take a backseat to political turmoil. In a country where ministers change faster than seasons, long-term economic planning is easier said than done.

So, what&rsquo;s the way forward for Pakistan&rsquo;s Schr&ouml;dinger economy? To truly open the box and find a thriving economy inside, Pakistan must shift from firefighting to systemic reform. Exports need to diversify beyond textiles&mdash;IT services, for instance, hold enormous untapped potential. Investment in renewable energy and domestic resources can reduce the dependency on volatile global fuel markets.
The tax system needs a complete overhaul.

Broadening the tax base by formalizing the informal economy is crucial. Digitization of tax processes has started, but enforcement and trust-building with businesses remain key. Regional trade offers another lifeline. Strengthening trade with Afghanistan, Central Asia, and even India could open up new economic corridors and stabilize supply chains.

Pakistan must also tackle inefficiencies in state-owned enterprises, which continue to bleed the exchequer. Privatization or restructuring, though politically sensitive, could reduce fiscal drag. Finally, political and institutional stability cannot be overstated. A consistent policy framework and good governance are critical to unlocking the country&rsquo;s potential.

As of now, Pakistan&rsquo;s economy remains in a superposition&mdash;alive, dead, or somewhere in between. The current signs are hopeful, but as any physicist&mdash;or economist&mdash;would tell you, the true state only reveals itself with time, data, and bold action. Until then, Schr&ouml;dinger&rsquo;s cat, or rather Pakistan&rsquo;s economy, keeps us guessing.

&nbsp;]]>
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			<title>Breaking free from inertia</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2573191/breaking-free-from-inertia</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2573191/breaking-free-from-inertia#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sun, 19 Oct 25 19:19:25 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Nadeem Javaid]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2573191</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Pakistan finds itself unable to prosper]]>
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				<![CDATA[Pakistan once stood at the edge of promise - a young nation alive with ambition, industry, and the dream of joining Asia&#39;s rising tigers. But somewhere along the way, that energy dimmed. Growth lost its rhythm, and progress began to circle instead of climb. The country now finds itself caught in what economists call the Middle-Income Trap &mdash; a place where nations rise above abject poverty but fail to reach prosperity. In this zone, costs rise faster than productivity, innovation stalls, and ambition outpaces capacity. Pakistan, once a symbol of potential, risks becoming an example of inertia &mdash; not poor enough for aid, yet not strong enough to compete.

The trap captures countries that grow through low-wage manufacturing and basic exports but stumble when wages rise, and productivity fails to keep pace. Argentina, Brazil and Thailand have struggled in this space for decades. Pakistan&#39;s case is similar: an economy that moves, but no longer moves forward.

Take exports. Pakistan&#39;s total exports stood around $32 billion, barely changed in years. By contrast, Vietnam&#39;s exports crossed $354 billion, despite both economies starting at similar levels two decades ago. While Bangladesh and Vietnam diversified into electronics, garments and machinery, Pakistan remains locked into low-value textiles and primary commodities. Its inability to upgrade the export base has kept the external sector stagnant and vulnerable.

Human capital tells a similar story. Pakistan spends barely 1.5 per cent of GDP on education - among the lowest in Asia. Millions of children remain out of school, and even university graduates often lack market-relevant skills. Without investment in people, productivity cannot grow - and without productivity, prosperity cannot follow.

Institutional fragility compounds the problem. Every few years, the cycle repeats - IMF bailouts, currency shocks and short-term fiscal fixes. Political volatility and administrative discontinuity have turned policymaking into crisis management. Investors, both domestic and foreign, hesitate in such an environment. High interest rates, arbitrary taxation and poor contract enforcement have produced what might be called a &quot;fear economy&quot; - one where capital hides instead of builds, and risk-taking gives way to risk-avoidance.

Meanwhile, the informal sector dominates. More than 70 per cent of Pakistan&#39;s workforce operates outside formal structures - underpaid, unprotected and untaxed. This keeps productivity low and deprives the state of much-needed revenue. Weak public investment in infrastructure and services then reinforces the cycle of low growth and inequality.

But the most subtle trap is psychological. A comfortable middle class has learned to live with stagnation. Malls expand, cars multiply and consumption thrives, but innovation languishes. Too many seek safety in government jobs or overseas remittances, while too few take the risks that fuel enterprise. It is this quiet acceptance of &quot;just enough&quot; that makes inertia so powerful - and so dangerous.

History, however, offers a way out. South Korea in the 1960s was poorer than Pakistan but climbed out of poverty through export discipline, industrial upgrading and massive investment in education. China transformed from low-end assembly to global technology leadership through long-term planning and institutional focus. Malaysia avoided the trap by building a diversified, knowledge-based economy anchored in policy continuity and political stability. None of these transitions happened overnight; each demanded decades of consistent reform and national purpose.

For Pakistan, breaking free from inertia requires a similar commitment - not cosmetic fixes, but foundational change.

First, invest in people. Raise education and skills spending to at least 45 per cent of GDP. Focus on digital literacy, STEM education and vocational training through public-private partnerships that connect learning with livelihoods.

Second, reform the tax system. Agriculture, real estate and retail must enter the tax net. Simplify compliance through technology and transparency, broaden the base, and reduce distortions that punish the formal sector.

Third, empower cities. Urban centres generate nearly 80 per cent of GDP yet remain fiscally suffocated. Devolving authority to local governments, simplifying business licensing, and expanding microfinance - especially for women - can unleash immense productive potential.

Fourth, separate economic governance from political turbulence. The National Economic Council should guide long-term policy insulated from election cycles, ensuring continuity and coherence.

Fifth, engage the diaspora as partners, not just remitters. Pakistan&#39;s nine million overseas citizens can drive entrepreneurship, investment and technology transfer - injecting new ideas and capital into the economy.

Finally, open markets and ensure fair competition. Decades of protectionism and rent-seeking have entrenched inefficiency. Phasing out distortive subsidies, arbitrary tariffs and discretionary powers would reward productivity and innovation rather than privilege and influence.

Breaking free from inertia is more than an economic task - it is a national awakening. It means replacing short-term fixes with long-term vision, dependency with creativity, and fear with confidence. Pakistan cannot grow by surviving; it must thrive by transforming.

The choice is simple yet profound: remain comfortable in stagnation or embrace the hard climb toward renewal. The Middle-Income Trap is not an inevitability; it&#39;s a choice: to reform or to resign to mediocrity. The real trap isn&#39;t income; it&#39;s inertia. And only courage, consistency and commitment can break it.

The next generation of Pakistanis deserves more than survival. They deserve momentum - born of bold, consistent action, and the courage to leap forward rather than limp in circles.

The writer is the Vice Chancellor of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) and Member at Planning Commission of Pakistan]]>
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			<title>Disaster, destiny and our responsibility</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2564513/disaster-destiny-and-our-responsibility</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2564513/disaster-destiny-and-our-responsibility#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Mon, 01 Sep 25 20:46:59 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[M Zeb Khan]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2564513</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[The problem in Pakistan is not belief in destiny itself, but its misinterpretation]]>
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				<![CDATA[When a tragedy strikes in Pakistan, the most common reaction is: &quot;It was God&#39;s will.&quot; This simple phrase has profound power and implications. It helps people cope with unbearable grief, cushions them from prolonged trauma, and provides a collective psychological framework in which loss is given meaning. In a society where faith is deeply woven into daily life, belief in destiny is not just theology - it is therapy.

But beneath this comfort lies a danger. By placing disasters solely in the realm of fate, we risk absolving ourselves of responsibility. Fatalism, when misapplied, can slide from a spiritual solace into a culture of complacency. Instead of asking hard questions about preventable causes, we retreat into resignation. Disasters become not moments of accountability but acts of destiny.

Consider floods. It is true that global climate change has placed Pakistan among the most vulnerable nations on the planet. These global forces are outside our immediate control. Yet, the devastation that follows each season of heavy rains is not a simple natural occurrence. It is compounded, amplified, and often manufactured by local realities.

Overpopulation has pushed communities into flood-prone areas, often along riverbanks where survival is precarious. Unplanned urban sprawl has overwhelmed fragile drainage systems. Deforestation in the north has stripped away natural barriers against floods and landslides. Poorly constructed homes collapse at the first touch of water, while weak infrastructure - roads, bridges and embankments - crumbles under pressure. Corruption and short-term politics mean that dams and canals remain mismanaged, and flood-prevention plans gather dust.

The same logic applies to other calamities. Road accidents are too easily accepted as &quot;God&#39;s will&quot;. But many stem from reckless driving, poorly enforced traffic rules, or vehicles unfit for the road. Factory fires, often deadly, are not acts of destiny but the result of absent safety standards and greed-driven shortcuts. Even terrorism, while politically complex, thrives when security lapses and governance failures create fertile ground. In each case, responsibility disappears behind the shield of fate.

Ironically, this is not what Islam teaches. The Qur&#39;an consistently calls for both reliance on God (tawakkul) and accountability for human action. &quot;Indeed, Allah does not change the condition of a people until they change what is in themselves&quot; (13:11). Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) famously advised a man to tie his camel before trusting in God&#39;s protection. The message is clear: trust in divine decree must go hand in hand with human responsibility. To rely on fate without effort is not faith - it is negligence.

The problem in Pakistan is not belief in destiny itself, but its misinterpretation. Instead of a balanced philosophy that combines spiritual acceptance with worldly responsibility, destiny has been reduced to an excuse. It allows individuals, communities and governments to evade accountability. It transforms what should be moments of collective learning into cycles of repeated tragedy.

The way forward requires a shift in mindset. Disasters must be understood not only as divine tests but as opportunities for reform. When floods strike, the question should not only be, &quot;Why us?&quot; but also, &quot;What must we change?&quot; When accidents occur, the response should not end at grief but extend to improving safety and enforcing laws. When violence erupts, society must hold accountable not only the perpetrators but also the structures that allowed it.

Pakistan cannot afford to treat destiny as a shield against responsibility. The Qur&#39;anic vision of humans as khalifa - stewards of the earth - places upon us a duty of care. This stewardship means planting trees instead of cutting them, enforcing safety standards instead of ignoring them, building resilient infrastructure instead of cheap structures, and investing in disaster preparedness rather than leaving everything to chance.

Disasters will always come. Climate change will make them more frequent, urbanisation will make them more complex, and global politics will make them more unpredictable. But whether they destroy us or strengthen us will depend less on destiny and more on the choices we make.]]>
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			<title>Gaza war - winning and losing</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2572800/gaza-war-winning-and-losing</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2572800/gaza-war-winning-and-losing#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Thu, 16 Oct 25 19:25:22 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Aneela Shahzad]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2572800</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[The truth behind global politics is often obscured by power plays and egos, leaving the innocent to suffer]]>
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				<![CDATA[The upright never defeat evil, but they pretty much expose it. But evil, when exposed, even when drenched in ignominy, raises itself from its lewd bottomness, with the power of its dishonesty and deviousness, to heights of vainglory and fanfare - so that the distance between brazen tyranny and honourable virtue is so great that it is virtually unbridgeable.

This is not new; it is a repeated history. Over 3,000 years back, when Moses brought God&#39;s message, asking the Pharaoh to stop tyranny upon his people and give them their freedom; and proved his truth with the miracle of the staff - what did Pharaoh and his chieftains do with all the miracles? Even when their consciences were telling them that Moses had brought the truth, their self-interests, their gluttony and their rapacity forced them to turn over their inners voices and unite upon the evil that ensures them their worldly luxuries.

&#39;So, they disputed, one with another, over their affair, but they kept secret their whispers. They said: These two are magicians: their object is to drive you out from your land with their magic, and to do away with your most exemplary ways. So, put together your plan, and then assemble in ranks: He wins today who gains the upper hand,&#39; (TaHa;62-64).

Three lines from the Quran give a complete anatomy of the psychology in play. If you are for the overkill, the lavish overabundance, the excess powers, you suppress your morality. You malign the righteous as criminals, terrorist and &#39;magicians&#39;. And you unite with all the powerful, resourceful elites, ensure one another of the exemplary &#39;way of life&#39; and regimes you have, and put your plans together. And then you tell each other that you just need to win the moment - meaning that if you are able to show the people that your sorcerers are abler than the two brothers, the people will willfully accept your power.

Now, 3,000 years later, imagine Pharaoh&#39;s court and his chieftains, and imagine Sharm as Sheikh! And just imagine for yourself, who is the Pharaoh, who are the chieftains, who are the ones who aggrandise their tyranny as true power, and who are the sorcerers that make the people of the world believe that peace has been brought to war-torn Gaza!

Humanity looks with bewildered eyes - on Monday there was a ceasefire. On Tuesday, Israel shot down five more Gazans. On Monday, UN Undersecretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher was excited about the humanitarian scale-up; on Tuesday, he said the organisation faced &quot;further setbacks to the implementation&quot;. On Monday, President Trump was hailed for the Gaza Plan; on Tuesday, he was threatening to disarm Hamas &quot;violently&quot;. And on Wednesday, Centcom chief Brad Cooper was calling upon Hamas to &quot;immediately suspend violence and shooting at innocent Palestinian civilians in Gaza&quot;, both in Hamas-controlled areas and behind the so-called yellow line where Israeli troops are stationed. What was the peace deal then, if there was any?

The truth is that humanity was not told anything about the deal or what had been agreed to. On the face of it, it seems that Hamas was forced to hand over its only leverage, the hostages, in return for empty promises that most of us don&#39;t believe in. Was it a deal for letting Netanyahu go scot-free from all his court cases then, and let the Israelis pretend they have won? Was it just a prop-up to satisfy Trump&#39;s ego after he lost the Nobel peace prize? Was it a move to put a quiet on the Gaza front so that a full attack on Iran could be prepared for? Or was it just a commonplace sorcery, to stupefy humanity, while the genocide goes on in full? Or, was it a game of the survival for leaders, who want legitimacy in the eyes of their people, and who don&#39;t actually want an end to wars because they thrive on conflict and enmity.

Offensive realist Mearsheimer describes an anarchic world where every state is for its own and where states transfer the responsibility to act to other states while remaining on the sidelines - it&#39;s called buck-passing. So do we see the Muslim states passing the buck over to the Arabs? And the Arabs conveniently passing the buck onto Trump, who has no concern with the lives or welfare of the Palestinians, and who is best buddies with Netanyahu? So how does all this work? Are the states of the Ummah just thinking to keep passing the buck so that they can have peace in their states and have their multi-billion projects and their luxuries, while Gaza and the West Bank burn and bleed? How long will this work?

By the way, are the &#39;innocent Palestinian civilians in Gaza&#39; that Brad Cooper mentioned Hamas was killing, not the IDF collaborators that they have prepared to wreak havoc in Gaza when they are gone? Are they not the same gangsters who have been looting the humanitarian aid at IDF&#39;s behest? If the Centcom chief wants to protect them, imagine what the calculus of peace drawn in his mind would be!

All this when the IDF forces still remain in two-thirds of Gaza; when humanitarian convoys are still not passing the check-posts; when Israeli leadership is repeating to this day that it won&#39;t have a Palestinian state; and that it is determined to destroy Hamas; and, in the words of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, to ethnically cleanse Palestinians from Gaza. The truth is that Israel sees every war as an opportunity for expulsion of Palestinians, just like in 1948 and 1967.

And the truth is that the US will never cut Israel&#39;s aid; Israel will blame Hamas for something, backfoot on the ceasefire, and the genocide will go on. Because, Israeli perspective is not peace and political stability in the region, its perspective is Zionistic, it is maximising Jewish control, minimising Palestinian presence.

So, the question every member of human society must ask is: is this the way global politics is being run - of satisfying egos of biggity men; of putting trade over human lives; of letting the killing of 70,000 people just for the imperialist dream of an ally? Is this the exemplary &#39;way of life&#39; the leaders of our times propound? And are our votes in the ballot box stamping upon their powers?

Surely then, with our votes, genocide has won and humanity has lost.]]>
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			<title>American strategic deception</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518072/american-strategic-deception</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518072/american-strategic-deception#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Tue, 24 Dec 24 20:24:21 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Zamir Akram]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2518072</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[The US also maintains massive nuclear deterrence capability in comparison with which Pakistan's assets are miniscule.]]>
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				<![CDATA[Speaking at an American think-tank on 19 December, Jon Finer, the Deputy National Security Advisor in the Biden Administration, claimed that Pakistan&#39;s development of long-range missiles &quot;will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including the United States&quot;. He added that it was &quot;hard for us to see Pakistan&#39;s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States&quot;.

This sweeping and speculative assertion coming only two days after the US imposed sanction on Pakistani entities allegedly involved in missile development could hardly be a coincidence.

This is obviously part of a well-orchestrated charade intended to deny Pakistan the capability to ensure credible deterrence against India&#39;s rapid development of its strategic arsenal including long range air, land and sea based missiles to be deployed on offshore Indian assets and nuclear powered submarines.

This blatantly discriminatory American policy behind the smoke-screen that Pakistan seeks to threaten the US itself is patently ludicrous and disingenuous. Even objective Americans would find this hard to digest. Indeed, this is strategic deception at its worst.

The US is well aware that ever since Pakistan&#39;s nuclear tests in response to India&#39;s in 1998, its strategic doctrine is focused on ensuring credible deterrence exclusively against India.

Accordingly, Pakistan&#39;s strategic capabilities are not directed against any other country except India, least of all the US. Besides, there is no rationale for Pakistan to threaten the US with which it has no dispute and where millions of Pakistanis reside.

The US also maintains a massive nuclear deterrence capability in comparison with which Pakistan&#39;s assets are miniscule. For Pakistan to attack the US would, therefore, be suicidal.

In open forum discussions on this issue over the recent past with American officials and experts, Pakistani interlocutor, myself involved, have sought clarity and rational arguments that would explain American concern. But none have been offered.

There have been vague and weak arguments that since Pakistan is China&#39;s ally, its strategic capabilities are a part of the threat from China. This begs the question as to why Pakistan, even as a Chinese ally, would jeopardise its own existence by attacking the US?

The truth is that these American allegations are a ploy and an obvious deception. The objective is to protect India&#39;s strategic interests against China. To achieve this, the US wants India to focus on China and not be distracted by competition from Pakistan.

But from Pakistan&#39;s perspective, Indian capabilities ostensibly against China can also be used against Pakistan. In fact, after the thrashing India received from China in 1962, it has no inclination whatsoever to engage in a conflict with the Chinese. But New Delhi will continue to exploit the threat from China to benefit from American hand-outs as Washington&#39;s &#39;Net Security Provider&#39;.

However, for Pakistan, the Indian military build-up presents an existential threat. India has used the American supported nuclear waiver to increase its nuclear arsenal. It has developed short, medium and long range air, land and sea based missiles. It has acquired nuclear powered and nuclear armed submarines. In 2019, India tested an anti-satellite missile (ASAT) and has developed a multi-layered Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) System, involving American Patriot, Israeli Arrow and Russian S-400 missiles.

India is also developing hypersonic missiles while inducting new and emerging technologies into its weapon systems with American assistance. At the same time, Indian strategic bases are being set up in the Indian Ocean, most notably in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and possibly in the Indian Ocean. Additionally, as a part of the US-backed Quadrilateral alliance in the Asia-Pacific, India may obtain basing facilities in the territories of its alliance parties - the US, Japan and Australia.

For Pakistan these developments present existing and potential challenges in the future for which it must be prepared to ensure credible deterrence. Pakistan has already ensured, through its full spectrum deterrence policy, deterrence at the operational, tactical and strategic levels.

It maintains credible second strike capability adequate for its needs. Its land, air and sea based Babur cruise missiles and the MIRVed Ababheel missiles provide capability to penetrate Indian BMD systems. The Shaheen 2 and 3 long range missiles cover the Indian mainland and offshore assets.

However, since deterrence is dynamic depending on changes in technologies and policies, Pakistan cannot afford to foreclose its future options. For instance, development of Indian bases with nuclear armed missiles deep in the Indian Ocean would require Pakistan to develop longer range missiles.

Similarly, Pakistan&#39;s space assets including satellites which are becoming increasingly vital for civilian and military purposes, may come to be threatened by ASATs which India has already tested.

Therefore, for effective deterrence to protect its satellites in future, Pakistan would need an ASAT capability for which long range missiles are essential. Also, to benefit from future space operations, Pakistan would need the capability to launch satellites which require developing a Space Launch Vehicle (SLV) capability. For all these reasons, Pakistan has a legitimate right to develop its long range missile/rocket programme.

If the US has legitimate concerns about Pakistan&#39;s missile development programme, even as the assertion that Pakistan would threaten the US is nonsensical, a reasonable arrangement based mutual non-attack assurances can provide a logical solution. But, since the US does not seek this option, the conclusion is inescapable that America&#39;s true motives are different and the allegations made by the likes of Jon Finer are nothing but an elaborate deception.

America&#39;s true intentions are betrayed by its discriminatory sanctions imposed on Pakistani entities as was done again a few days ago. There are more than 160 such entities that have been sanctioned since 1998 while none in India.

If Washington was truly interested in South Asian security and protecting its own national interests, it should pursue a non-discriminatory and balanced policy towards Pakistan and India. Instead, India has been given a free pass to build up its strategic capabilities while restraint is only being sought from Pakistan. History has demonstrated that discrimination has never succeeded with Pakistan.]]>
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			<title>Time to heal the wounds with Dhaka, and beyond</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518067/time-to-heal-the-wounds-with-dhaka-and-beyond</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518067/time-to-heal-the-wounds-with-dhaka-and-beyond#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Tue, 24 Dec 24 20:24:21 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Ishtiaq Ali Mehkri]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2518067</guid>
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				<![CDATA[Five decades down the line as Bangladesh and Pakistan look back at the trauma, it pains.]]>
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				<![CDATA[The month of December reminds me of Fall of Dhaka in 1971, and the iconic poetry of Naseer Turabi, who in an instant heart-wrenching aura penned a poem reflecting the remorse of dismemberment of East Pakistan in all humility. To this day, the ghazal (ode) he wrote reverberates as a grim reminder of our fallacies in the national milieu, and the trust that the poet had in the truncated section of our erstwhile nationhood.

The legendary poet was felicitous as he wrote: &quot;Woh humsafar thaa magar us sey humnawai na thiKay dhoop chaaon ka aalam raha, judaai na thi&quot; (He was my companion, but with him I didn&#39;t have like-mindedness; Like the clouds and sunlight, together but as apart as can be).

Turabi went on to state the obvious with a big heart: &quot;Adaavatein theen, taghaaful thaa, ranjishein theen magar; Bicharne walay mein sab kuch thaa, be-wafaai na thi&quot; (There were feelings of animosity, indifference and anguish (between us) but; my departed lover had everything (but) hadn&#39;t had unfaithfulness).

Five decades down the line as Bangladesh and Pakistan look back at the trauma, it pains and has nothing to account for but regrets. It is, however, some great consolation that Dhaka is willing to bury the hatchet, and wants to normalise relations with Islamabad. The desire on the part of Dr Muhammad Yunus, the interim leader, to &quot;move on from 1971&quot; is statesmanship.

The new thinking, perhaps, hints at the Bengali nation having come a long way from the Bangabandhu psyche to a progressive, all-inclusive emerging society. The end of Shaikh Hasina&#39;s regime has also impacted in helping Dhaka realise that in an era of geo-economics, carrying the baggage of animosity is an undesired liability.

The plausible interactions are many. The first that needs to be done is to reorient the academia and intelligentsia, and let them brief and debrief over the checkered history in all openness. Trade, commerce and communication avenues are aplenty for a joint populace of around half a billion, with a collective GDP of more than $750 billion.

Apart from buoying trade, both the countries must work together for reviving the moribund eight-nation SAARC, which was conceptualised by Dhaka as a viable organic regional organisation in 1985. Bangladesh can prevail over India to give in its resistance to the regional bloc and help rewrite a new chapter of homogeneity on the pattern of ASEAN. As India sits fingers-crossed with the fall of its ally-dispensation in Dhaka, there can be a quid pro quo for regional amalgamation making it a win-win situation in bilateralism.

The opening up of our quondam eastern flank can unfurl lessons in pluralism, institutional building and respect for political mandate that Bengalis had cherished. Pakistan, unfortunately groped in parochialism these days, can learn a lot and work inwardly for strengthening national unity. With origins of our freedom movement and its founding fathers from Bengal, there is a lot of intellectualism that needs to be revisited, and made part of our national life.

To pick a thread from Faiz Ahmed Faiz, &quot;Kab nazar mein aaye gi be-daagh sabzay ki bahaar; Khoon ke dhabbay dhuleinge kitni barsaaton ke baad...&quot; (When will we see the unsullied green of spring? After how many monsoons will the stains of blood be washed?), it&#39;s time to take a leap forward and connect the dots with Dhaka. An apology from Pakistan - which has expressed regrets over the debacle though - is direly needed for a fresh start.

This also comes as an opportunity to touch-base on the Bihari legion and make an earnest effort to embrace them and heal the wounds of history. Indeed, this reconnecting desires some soul-searching as more than 300,000 Biharis are stranded in Bangladesh - poor souls who stood for Pakistan and paid a price in blood and misery.

If Dhaka can embrace Rohingya Muslims, what prevents Islamabad from bringing back Biharis and undoing their statelessness? Looking beyond the bitterness of 1971 demands an open head and heart, and a comprehensive leap forward is indispensable.]]>
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