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                        <title>News Opinion &amp; Reviews - The Express Tribune</title>
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                        <description>The Express Tribune keeps you up to date with all the latest happenings from Pakistan and across the world!</description>
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			<title>Here come the answers</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620252/here-come-the-answers</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620252/here-come-the-answers#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sat, 25 Jul 26 19:15:07 +0500</pubDate>
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				<![CDATA[Fahd Husain]]>
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			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
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				<![CDATA[Policies mentioned in the document oftentimes raise more questions than answers]]>
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				<![CDATA[The government has communicated. That&rsquo;s a good start. It started with my column &ldquo;Say it, show it, if you know it&rdquo; last week, in which I asked the government to find its voice. I raised ten questions. Throughout the week, I kept getting feedback that reinforced how critical good governance is and why its absence &mdash; or shortage &mdash; is the central reason for Pakistan&rsquo;s sad state of affairs. My colleague Kamran Khan did a detailed segment on the column, and we agreed that Centre and provinces are equally responsible for the lack of visible improvement.

The government has now sent me answers to those ten questions. The lengthy response is indicative of at least two things: first, it is positive that the government is sensitive to the need for greater engagement and communication; second, and less positive, the policies mentioned in the document oftentimes raise more questions than answers.

It will not be possible for me to reproduce the entire response. Instead, here are abridged answers along with my original questions. Do note that my question 6 on retail and agriculture tax and why it was not being collected with the same zeal as the tax on the salaried class was missed out in the response (perhaps inadvertently). I am reserving my analysis of the response for later columns where I will delve deeper into these ten issues. For now, read what the government has answered and make up your own mind. The full text of the response will also be available on social media.

1. What is our strategy on Balochistan?

Our strategy rests on four clear pillars: security, effective border management, better governance and people-centred development. Intelligence-based operations against terrorists and their facilitators will continue until their complete elimination. At the same time, through better governance and participation of the people, Balochistan&rsquo;s natural endowment of resources will translate into economic opportunities, education, healthcare and tangible benefits for local communities.

2. What do we plan to do about terrorism from Afghanistan?

Pakistan has an obligation to its people to protect them against external threats and will not hesitate to dismantle any terrorist infrastructure that is used to wage terrorism in Pakistan.

3. What is the plan to solve the federal government&#39;s fiscal problem?

The Eighteenth Amendment resolved a real question about subsidiarity and localisation but the financial formula underpinning it is stuck in 2010. The fiscal problem is not solved. Debt servicing will take years of primary surpluses and longer maturities to bring down. But the direction has been reversed, the instruments are built and running, and the numbers are published every month for anyone who wishes to check them. The question now is whether non-payers are prepared to keep pretending there isn&rsquo;t a plan.

4. Why is the committee on the NFC award not meeting and deciding the way forward?

The Seventh Award was a real achievement, built for the Pakistan of 2010. We need a new fiscal compact. What exists now that did not exist before is an agreement among all five governments that the problem is real, and a demonstrated willingness to solve it together rather than litigate it. An NFC convened without it produces deadlock. An NFC convened with it can produce a settlement that funds national obligations predictably, holds each tier to what it constitutionally owns and gives every government a horizon longer than a single budget. The provinces have shown they will act in the national interest. Insha&rsquo;Allah, the task now is to give that cooperation a permanent form.

5. Why is the government not reducing its bloated size?&nbsp;

The government is reducing its size, and the reduction has been ongoing since the middle of 2024 under a committee the Prime Minister chairs himself. This is unglamorous work, and it is understandable that a media industry that caters to doomscrolling finds it hard to cover the process holistically. Yet it is worth being clear about why it takes time. Every division carries a statute. Every post carries service protections and, in many cases, a person with a family. Rightsising that collapses in service tribunals is not rightsising, it is theatre (followed by back pay, with interest!). The government has chosen the path less travelled. Harder. Longer. But one that survives engagement with Pakistani law.

7. Why is the government not privatising or shutting down loss-making SOEs?

For nearly two decades, no Pakistani government managed a major privatisation. Deadlines were missed, transactions collapsed and the national carrier went on losing money that came out of every taxpayer&rsquo;s pocket. This government completed the sale. The distribution companies are next. Islamabad, Karachi and Lahore airports are being outsourced. The principle behind all of it is simple and the Prime Minister has stated it plainly: running businesses is not the government&#39;s job.

8. How does the government plan to solve the energy crisis and provide affordable electricity to citizens?&nbsp;

For much of the last three decades, the conversation about Pakistan&#39;s energy crisis was a conversation about generation. But the problem that outlived them is in the contracts, the losses and the recoveries &mdash; that is where the work is now concentrated, and why there is reason, Insha&rsquo;Allah, to expect prices to keep falling.

9. Does the government have a medium-term or even long-term plan to solve our debt crisis?

Yes, and it is a published document. The Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy for FY2026-28 sits on the Finance Division&#39;s website, prepared by the Debt Management Office with the Annual Borrowing Plan alongside it. Anyone who wants to know what this government intends to do about debt can read it rather than speculate. The plan exists, it is written down, it is being executed against published targets, and the numbers have moved in the right direction for three years running, alhamdulillah.

10. Why are the federal and provincial governments not allowing empowered local governments?

The federal government cannot speak for the provinces. Their positions are their own to state, and they are perfectly capable of stating them. The Provincial Finance Commission is the instrument through which a province transfers money to its districts by formula rather than by discretion. Where a PFC functions, local government can be real. Where it does not, it becomes much more challenging. The variation on this within and across provinces is an important element of the conversation.]]>
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			<title>What business schools must teach and why!</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620251/what-business-schools-must-teach-and-why</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620251/what-business-schools-must-teach-and-why#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sat, 25 Jul 26 19:15:07 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[M Zeb Khan]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2620251</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Competitive advantage is often operational, not technological]]>
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				<![CDATA[In business schools, we mostly teach students how to interpret markets, anticipate disruption, and craft strategy in uncertain environments. We introduce frameworks, debate case studies, and encourage learners to &quot;think like entrepreneurs&quot;. Yet, when a crisis arrives - not in a classroom simulation but in real life - the difference between success and failure rarely comes down to how many models a person can recall. It comes down to something far more practical: the capacity to stay calm, think clearly, and act decisively without being trapped by ego.

A story I recently reflected on captures this lesson with unusual clarity. A young graduate, apprenticing with a lawyer, was asked to manage the office in the lawyer&#39;s absence. For him, it should have been a rare opportunity to demonstrate competence, build confidence, and earn credibility. But the clients did not respond with trust. Many felt uncomfortable dealing with him, doubted his ability to handle court matters, and treated him as a temporary substitute rather than a professional in his own right. The apprentice, in return, began to feel the weight of rejection and disrespect.

Then came a moment that could have turned everything toxic: a dissatisfied client demanded his fee back. The apprentice could have reacted defensively, blamed the client, or turned the encounter into a confrontation. Instead, he controlled his emotions, responded with empathy, and returned the fee calmly. This is the kind of discipline business education often under-teaches. We emphasise confidence and persuasion, but we do not sufficiently train students in emotional self-regulation.

But instead of sinking into despair, the apprentice started observing his surroundings. Outside the office, he noticed a simple roadside hut selling fries. The operation was basic, unimpressive in appearance, and certainly not glamorous. Yet it was overwhelmed with customers. Demand was clear and immediate. That observation carries a major lesson for business education: opportunity recognition is not always about brilliance. Often it is about attention. Markets speak every day - through queues, complaints, customer behaviour, and unmet needs.

Initially, the apprentice also struggled with this psychological barrier. He wondered what friends would think if an educated graduate started selling fries. This is a familiar constraint across Pakistan: our degrees often become social armour. Many young people are not defeated by the market - they are defeated by the fear of judgement. But the apprentice did something rare: he overruled his ego. He bought basic equipment and started immediately. It was a small, practical experiment designed to survive the crisis.

Then came the strategic detail that made the story more than &quot;hard work pays of&quot;. He did not simply copy the existing vendor. He differentiated. He kept his environment cleaner, more organised and more professional. And because he lacked space, he designed his service as takeaway-only. That small operational choice became a competitive advantage. Customers who wanted speed, hygiene and convenience, began preferring his stall. In business terms, he created a niche by redesigning the customer experience. He did not innovate the product; he innovated the delivery.

That is precisely what business schools should teach more explicitly: competitive advantage is often operational, not technological. It is built through understanding what customers actually value and then solving that problem consistently - sometimes with the simplest resources. Over time, his business grew. He diversified offerings, expanded locations, built a brand, and scaled into branches across cities. What began as an emergency solution became a long-term enterprise.

The deeper takeaway is not that &quot;anyone can succeed&quot;. It is that success is often a result of a mindset that modern business education struggles to cultivate: humility to start small, courage to shift paths, and maturity to separate dignity from job titles. If we want business education to serve Pakistan&#39;s realities, we need to teach students how to pivot without shame, how to treat setbacks as signals rather than personal defeats, and how to spot opportunities hidden inside everyday problems.]]>
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			<title>Our Cockroach, Wangchuk, Jantar Mantar and Gen Z</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620247/our-cockroach-wangchuk-jantar-mantar-and-gen-z</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620247/our-cockroach-wangchuk-jantar-mantar-and-gen-z#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sat, 25 Jul 26 19:15:06 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Ali Hassan Bangwar]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2620247</guid>
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				<![CDATA[Our cockroach system sustained by bureaucrats, clergy, soul-selling members of intelligentsia, media, feudal]]>
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				<![CDATA[In response to my article last Sunday titled &quot;Revolution? No Thanks,&quot; I received numerous emails and texts. While most complimented my insight, a few raised important questions: Why hasn&#39;t Pakistan seen a systemic overthrow in its 80-year history, unlike Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka, or the brewing student activism in India? And will we ever see a Cockroach, Wangchuk or Gen-Z Jantar Mantar movement in our country? Before I take up these questions, I pay tribute to the students of Jantar Mantar and to every resistance movement against oppressors worldwide.

The movement in India has exposed the limits of Modi&#39;s propaganda. Meanwhile, it is also exposing the hypocrisy in our part of the world: politicians and the media criticise Modi&#39;s policies - as they should - yet they lose all empathy when it comes to the oppressed under their noses. The metaphorical Jantar Mantar on Thandi Sarak, Hyderabad - protesting the kleptocracy of the SPSC as well as all calls for the recovery of Priya Kumari - struck them dumb.

This hypocrisy offers a clue as to why the system outlasts its counterparts elsewhere. Pakistan has personifications of Cockroach, Wangchuk and Jantar Mantar serving different purposes in our society. That is, if Cockroach, Wangchuk and Gen-Z Jantar Mantar symbolise a resiliently oppressed youth, altruism and a bastion of resistance in India, respectively, they stand differently in our part of the world.

The cockroach not only symbolises a resilient victim public, it also embodies the true benefactors of this brute system. The system&#39;s survival for nearly eight decades demonstrates the cockroach&#39;s remarkable resilience, which far outlasts the grit of the oppressed. This is because Pakistan&#39;s cockroach system is sustained by bureaucrats, clergy, soul-selling members of the intelligentsia and media, and feudal and tribal lords - all bound together by mutually reinforcing interests that reach every corner of the country.

In our context, Wangchuk is a planted cockroach who displays a faint pulse of public empathy, aimed at hijacking any potential people&#39;s movement. Had Sonam Wangchuk been in Pakistan and led a rights movement, he would have either already been sponsored, or would have long traded away the grievances and rights he claims to champion, gotten co-opted into the cockroach system, or made a personal fortune abroad. Nevertheless, Indian students are not fortunate enough to have active clergy, politicos, nationalists, journalists, rights activists, or people with episodic revolutionary impulses. Alas! And we woefully have Wangchuks in every street. What a pity!

Jantar Mantar is every part of the country with a few sites echoing the voice of the voiceless unless they meet the brute force of the cockroach system. Most are led by the aggrieved with a little share of Gen Z. Even in genuine movements for rights, some among the aggrieved - in return for personal perks - choose to transmute into a Kafkaesque cockroach of the system, not out of dehumanisation, but to dehumanise people. The rest of Jantar Mantars are planted, aimed at distracting from issues, pitting people against each other, and averting any potential threat.

And most of Gen Z rarely look beyond their personal interests, with the collective good being an afterthought. With a few exceptions, they wish to be transmuted into &quot;Kafkaesque cockroaches&quot; more than standing with the oppressed. They often resort to flattery for getting co-opted by the oppressive system. This way, they, instead of confronting the cockroach system, choose to be one against the oppressed explicitly or via complicity. Perhaps they find their saviours of their fortune within the system. Perhaps they seek in malady the remedy. And perhaps.

Yet, Gen Z stands as the only hope.

Today, the line between the two cockroaches - a resilient victim and a resilient oppressor - is getting blurred, with the latter outnumbering the former as the former outnumbers the latter. The horrifying fact is that the victimised cockroaches join their oppressors more than the other way around. Isn&#39;t it?]]>
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			<title>Cockroach movement and securitisation in India</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620253/cockroach-movement-and-securitisation-in-india</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620253/cockroach-movement-and-securitisation-in-india#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sat, 25 Jul 26 19:15:07 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Dr Muhammad Ali Ehsan]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2620253</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[True Frankenstein lesson is that extraordinary powers, once created, rarely remain confined to their original purpose]]>
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				<![CDATA[A new youth-led political movement, the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), has emerged in India. The group is currently protesting repeated examination paper leaks and demanding accountability for what it calls systemic failures in the country&#39;s education system. Specifically, the CJP is calling for the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan. Delhi&#39;s Jantar Mantar became the focal point of the CJP protests over the past month. However, the demonstrations took a chaotic turn when protesters decided to march toward the Indian Parliament. Delhi Police responded by erecting barricades, firing tear gas, and baton-charging the crowd. The government also shut down internet services in the area. Tragically, young girls and boys were beaten, prompting opposition leader Rahul Gandhi to demand Prime Minister Narendra Modi&#39;s resignation. Gandhi himself was dragged by the police, taken into custody, and detained before eventually being released.

Should the Indian government&#39;s response to the Cockroach Movement be considered an act of securitisation?

According to the Copenhagen School of International Relations, securitisation is the process by which political actors frame a politicised issue as an existential threat. This shifts the issue from normal politics into the realm of emergency measures, justifying extraordinary responses. Is the BJP government justifying its actions under this exact pretext? Such a response contradicts democratic expectations; while securitisation can occur in any political system, it typically faces greater institutional constraints in established liberal democracies than in hybrid or authoritarian systems where the boundary between civilian and security authority is blurred.

Modi&#39;s BJP government has a history of relying on securitising narratives. This pattern was evident during the protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), the farmers&#39; movements, and the response in Kashmir following the abrogation of Article 370. In each instance, the government framed political disagreements not simply as dissent, but as existential threats to national unity and sovereignty.

Securitisation, however, faces a high probability of failure in India. Such strategies are most successful in emerging or non-democratic societies where security forces play a central role in national politics. It seems Modi is securitising normal political issues only to strengthen his grip on power. As the world&#39;s largest democracy, India&#39;s political challenges must remain within the realm of normal politics, where issues can be transparently debated, addressed, and protected against the abuse of authority.

The Frankenstein&#39;s Monster analogy perfectly illustrates how powerful a securitising actor can become, and how damaging the process can be to civil liberties. The immediate danger facing Indian democracy lies in the persistent, unchecked securitisation by the Modi government. Left unaddressed, this trend risks creating conditions that accelerate democratic backsliding.

The BJP government treats this educational movement as a security issue rather than a political one, thereby attempting to legitimise unwarranted police action as a necessity for maintaining order. However, the Copenhagen School notes that a police crackdown does not inherently constitute securitisation; governments are legally entitled to enforce laws regulating demonstrations, particularly in the face of violence or credible threats to public safety. The critical threshold for Indian democracy will be crossed if the BJP government successfully transforms the Cockroach Movement from an educational grievance into a national security threat through strategic securitising discourse. Yet, given the current public mood, especially among the youth, it remains highly unlikely that Indian society will accept such a framing.

Many emerging democracies and autocracies have used securitisation as a political strategy intended to protect the state or preserve order. However, once an issue was successfully framed as a security threat, these states increasingly relied on exceptional powers to curb civil liberties in the name of national security and stability. What followed in such states was expanded policing, surveillance, preventive detention, restrictions on assembly, internet shutdowns or broader limitations on civil liberties. History tells us that measures taken and justified as temporary responses to an emergency later became institutionalised. Examples are the USA after 9/11, Turkey after the 2016 coup attempt, and Egypt after 2013. The BJP government&#39;s action in Kashmir also reflects how once emergency powers become embedded in governance, reversing them becomes a political and administrative nightmare.

Applying this Frankenstein analogy, the monster is not the protesters, but the process of securitisation itself. Constructing a security narrative to manage dissent inevitably empowers bureaucratic security apparatuses at the expense of democratic politics. Ultimately, the creator - Modi&#39;s government - risks being consumed by its own creation, as the repeated use of emergency logic can permanently turn emergency powers into the normal mode of governance.

David Runciman, in his book, How Democracy Ends, argues that contemporary democracies are more likely to erode gradually through the accumulation of executive power than through sudden coups. Securitisation is a mechanism that contributes to democratic erosion because it lowers the political and legal barriers to expanding executive power. The repeated securitisation of political dissent risks normalising exceptional governance. As emergency measures become institutionalised, executive authority expands at the expense of judicial oversight, legislative scrutiny and civil liberties. Over time, this process can contribute to democratic backsliding and, in the case of India, may facilitate a gradual transition toward competitive authoritarianism or autocratic governance.

The future of Indian democracy will ultimately be determined not by whether governments confront political dissent, but by how they choose to confront it. Democracies are tested less by the presence of protest than by their capacity to manage disagreement without transforming political opposition into matters of national security. The true Frankenstein lesson is that extraordinary powers, once created, rarely remain confined to their original purpose. If the logic of securitisation becomes normalised, today&#39;s emergency may quietly become tomorrow&#39;s ordinary politics. That is the outcome India&#39;s democratic institutions should strive to avoid.]]>
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			<title>Terrible burden on India's youth</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620085/terrible-burden-on-indias-youth-1</link>
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			<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 26 19:35:33 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Farrukh Khan Pitafi]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2620085</guid>
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				<![CDATA[Fast trials begin after the harm]]>
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				<![CDATA[At Jantar Mantar, angry young Indians brought their revolt to the capital. A leak from the National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (NEET) lit the fuse. Tens of thousands marched in Delhi on 20 July. Police used batons and tear gas; calls for the education minister to resign spread.

In May, 2.275 million registered for NEET and 2.205 million sat it. The paper was cancelled; nearly 2 million sat it again in June. The Central Bureau of Investigation says experts hired by the National Testing Agency (NTA) leaked questions, one allegedly after rebuilding physics items from memory.

There have been arrests, a 2027 switch to computer-based NEET has been promised, the NTA faces an overhaul and fast-track courts are planned. The 2024 anti-leak law can jail organised offenders for ten years and fine them Rs 10 million.

Fast trials begin after the harm. Students lose months, fees, travel and coaching costs; job candidates may also lose an attempt or cross the age bar. No law can guard a paper while the choice of experts, private vendors and chain of custody stay hidden.

This is why a leak can bring a generation to the street. India&#39;s official unemployment rate for people aged 15 to 29 was 9.9 per cent in 2025. Some 25 per cent of that age group was neither working nor studying nor in training. At the last count, in March 2022, 964,000 central civilian posts were empty. An Indian Express study found 41 recruitment paper leaks across 15 states in five years. They hit 14 million applicants seeking just over 104,000 posts.

Young Indians saw revolts in Bangladesh and Nepal. The first began over a captured quota, the second over corruption, poor job hopes and a social-media ban. In India, a score can be stolen and reservation cannot undo the lead built by caste and wealth.

Central hiring sets aside 15 per cent of posts for Scheduled Castes, 7.5 per cent for Scheduled Tribes, 27 per cent for Other Backward Classes (OBC) and 10 per cent for poorer applicants outside these groups. The rest are open to all. These shares have opened doors, yet caste still shapes where people work.

Data covering 3.25 million central employees makes the point. In Group A jobs, Scheduled Castes held 14.2 per cent of posts, Scheduled Tribes 6.54 per cent and OBCs 19.14 per cent. Among 40,737 sanitation workers, the three groups made up 66 per cent. The OBC share near the top was almost eight points below its hiring quota. Caste remained tied to sanitation work.

OBC reservation in central jobs began in 1993 and does not cover promotion, leaving senior posts to older batches. Poor schools, weak English, costly coaching, family ties and wealth shape who reaches an exam and can keep trying. Reservation cannot mend those years or add jobs.

The creamy-layer rule bars some better-off OBC families under an income and status test, with an income ceiling of Rs800,000 a year. India has no sound count of how many it excludes. Data gathered by the Rohini Commission found that 97 per cent of OBC quota gains went to fewer than 25 per cent of the castes on the central list. The first issue concerns families, the second the share won by whole caste groups.

The Mandal Commission used eleven social, school and economic tests, but its estimate that OBCs formed 52 per cent of India drew on the 1931 caste census. Rahul Gandhi called for a new caste and economic census. During the 2024 election, Narendra Modi linked Congress&#39;s separate wealth survey to a charge that wealth would be taken and handed to Muslims. On 30 April 2025, the government agreed to count caste.

Households are being listed from April to September 2026, and caste will be counted with the population in February 2027. The yardstick is still missing from public view. Names alone will not show land, wealth, schooling, debt, work and access to quotaAgnipaths. Household assets are being gathered, but the government has yet to show how the facts will be joined and checked.

Agnipath replaces long careers with four-year service, after which no more than 25 per cent stay in the armed forces. The services are seeking a higher share. The Centre has set aside 50 per cent of certain constable and rifleman posts in the Central Armed Police Forces and Assam Rifles for former Agniveers, tightening the queue for others.

Artificial intelligence (AI) may tighten it further. The World Bank says South Asian job adverts have fallen by about 20 per cent in work most exposed to and replaceable by AI since ChatGPT appeared. A public office need not sack a whole floor. A clerk can retire, software can take part of the work and the post can stay empty. The reserved share may stay while hiring falls.

India needs paid training for growing work in health, care, teaching, skilled trades, clean energy, field services, data checks and safe use of AI. It also needs a yearly count of public posts, vacancies, hires, contractors and caste share by grade. A quota is little use when the job no longer exists.

The protest has forced movement. Its test is a public NTA audit, a named chain of duty, an account of 101 reform proposals, compensation, protection of age and attempts, and a fixed clock for filling posts. The caste census must measure living conditions; the jobs plan must face AI.

Yet a re-test, fast courts or one resignation may not end this. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies govern 22 states and Union Territories, 17 led by the BJP. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) says India is already a Hindu Rashtra, while its chief backs reservation while caste bias lasts.

This is the deeper fear as 2029 approaches, not a forecast. If one party controlled nearly every state, both Houses of Parliament and all key institutions, it could try to remake the order. Article 368 needs a majority of each House&#39;s full strength and two-thirds present and voting; key federal changes need at least half the states. The Supreme Court once said no amendment may destroy the Constitution&#39;s basic structure but now it doesn&#39;t seem to have time for ordinary citizens. Some OBC, Dalit and minority families fear captured checks would not hold, letting Ambedkar&#39;s Constitution give way to a Hindu Rashtra document shaped by Manusmriti. The dread grows as power gathers and the opposition proves useless.

That is why the agitation cannot end with a re-test or fast courts. Students came for an honest paper. Now they are silently expected to save the Union, the Constitution and the chance to rise. These are tasks the opposition and adults failed to carry for twelve years. The young have been saddled with the repair of a nation. Imagine their terrible burden.

Background and sources: https://x.com/FPWrites/status/2080623696247435363]]>
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			<title>Record climate financing is not enough</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620080/record-climate-financing-is-not-enough-1</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620080/record-climate-financing-is-not-enough-1#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 26 19:35:33 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Syed Mohammad Ali.]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
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				<![CDATA[World Bank, the largest provider of MDB climate finance for developing countries]]>
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				<![CDATA[Record climate finance should be a source of encouragement. According to the European Investment Bank, the world&#39;s multilateral development banks (MDBs) committed an unprecedented $162.5 billion in climate finance in 2024, with nearly $103 billion directed to developing countries. Yet, these headline grabbing figures mask growing doubts over whether such financial commitments can be sustained and even if the current global financial system can deliver a truly just transition.

The World Bank, the largest provider of MDB climate finance for developing countries, seems to have abandoned its target of allocating 45% of its annual lending to climate-related projects, arguing that it would instead prioritise broader development objectives. Since the World Bank accounts for nearly half of MDB climate finance for developing economies, this decision raises legitimate questions about whether recent momentum can be sustained.

Meanwhile, climate impacts continue to accelerate. Devastating floods, prolonged droughts, extreme heatwaves and increasingly destructive storms are already undermining economic growth, food security, public health, and political stability across much of the developing world.

MDBs increasingly portray themselves as leaders of the green transition, yet many financed fossil-fuel infrastructure, carbon intensive industries and environmentally damaging development projects for decades. Coal-fired power plants, oil and gas projects, major highways and extractive industries have all benefited from multilateral lending. Climate finance should therefore be viewed not simply as generosity, but as part of a broader institutional responsibility to help address the consequences of past development models.

Encouragingly, climate finance is paying greater attention to adaptation. While mitigation projects received roughly $68 billion, adaptation financing rose by 31% to $35 billion in 2024. This reflects a welcome recognition that reducing future emissions is no longer sufficient. Countries must also strengthen infrastructure, agriculture, water systems, disaster preparedness and public health against climate impacts that are already unavoidable.

Even so, current commitments remain far below what is required. Independent estimates suggest MDBs may need to provide around $180 billion annually by 2030 to adequately support developing countries, significantly above current levels.

Equally important is how climate finance is delivered. The international response continues to rely heavily on a neoliberal model centred on loans, market incentives, and mobilising private investment. While private capital has an important role, markets alone cannot deliver a just transition. Many essential adaptation measures &ndash; such as protecting vulnerable communities, restoring ecosystems, strengthening health systems and expanding early warning networks &ndash; generate substantial public benefits but relatively limited commercial returns, making them unattractive to private investors.

For many poorer countries, additional borrowing presents a profound dilemma. Already burdened by high debt, they are being asked to finance recovery from a crisis to which they contributed little. Climate finance that primarily takes the form of loans risks deepening rather than reducing global inequalities. A genuinely just transition therefore requires more grants, highly concessional finance, debt relief, technology transfer and reforms to the international financial architecture that expand developing countries&#39; fiscal space. This challenge has become even more pressing as bilateral grant financing has stagnated or declined.

The record level of MDB climate financing provided this past year is significant. But real progress requires more than merely increasing lending volumes. It demands long-term political commitment, greater emphasis on grants alongside loans and recognition that historical responsibility should remain central to global climate policy. Without these reforms, record climate finance may still fall short of meeting the defining challenge of our time.]]>
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			<title>Amnesty's fair words, unfair report</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620084/amnestys-fair-words-unfair-report-1</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620084/amnestys-fair-words-unfair-report-1#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 26 19:35:33 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Durdana Najam]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2620084</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[None of this suggests civilian harm can be excused as an unavoidable cost of war]]>
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				<![CDATA[A peculiar irony is found at the heart of the Amnesty International report on the 16 March strike on Kabul&#39;s Omid Treatment and Rehabilitation Centre, and it is worth naming before anything else.

Afghanistan, under the Taliban, is a country that has gone out of its way to keep independent eyes out. The UN&#39;s own special rapporteur on human rights, Richard Bennett, had been barred from entering the country in 2024, with the Taliban administration accusing him of &quot;spreading propaganda&quot;. Women, who make up half the population and are often the only people local custom permits inside hospitals and shelters to treat other women, have been steadily pushed out of public institutions, UNAMA offices included. And yet, for all odd reasons, the official Afghan voices and UNAMA sourcing find their way into Amnesty Report&#39;s footnotes without much apparent difficulty. How is it that a country that closes its doors on the world&#39;s monitors seems able to get its version of events out, quoting them?

That contradiction alone should have made Amnesty&#39;s investigators more cautious than they appear to have been. But it is worth being fair about what strikes like this actually are before getting to what is wrong with how this one was reported.

War, wherever it is fought, leaves scars on the people who never asked to be part of it. Pakistan knows this better than most nations currently living through it. Its own western borders have absorbed years of strikes, raids and cross-border fire, with the dead count filed away under the benign heading of collateral damage, as though a word could soften what a family actually lost. Afghans know it too, arguably worse. During the two decades of the American war against the Taliban, Afghan civilians were killed in numbers that rarely made headlines, dismissed in the same collateral-damage language whenever a wedding party or a farming family was caught in the wrong place. The International Criminal Court itself, in 2020, authorised an investigation into alleged war crimes committed by American forces and the CIA in Afghanistan - a rare moment when a body of that stature was willing to say plainly that even a superpower&#39;s conduct in war deserved scrutiny.

That is precisely where this report falls short. Those earlier findings, against the Taliban and against the Americans alike, were built on physical evidence, forensic detail and direct interviews with the people who survived or buried their dead. They named names, dates and units, and let the facts carry the accusation. What Amnesty has produced this time leans far more heavily on testimony it could not independently cross-check on the ground, filtered through a government that has every incentive to inflate a casualty count and none to allow anyone to verify it. A handful of videos and a dozen interviews are asked to stand in for what happened inside a facility said to have held thousands of people that night. That is not the same rigour the organisation has applied elsewhere, and it shows.

None of this suggests civilian harm can be excused as an unavoidable cost of war, or that a stronger state may strike inside a weaker neighbour&#39;s territory without its account ever being tested. A hospital&#39;s protection under international law does not diminish simply because the source reporting the strike invites suspicion. The real issue is methodological: before asking the world to accept a war-crimes allegation, Amnesty&#39;s report needed to meet the same evidentiary bar it holds elsewhere. In its evident haste to validate Kabul&#39;s account, the organisation let a grave charge rest on evidence far thinner than it warranted. Such reports never stay confined to the page. They land in a relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan that is already smouldering, and they do not cool it down. They pour oil on it.]]>
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			<title>Modi's waning control</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620248/modis-waning-control</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620248/modis-waning-control#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sat, 25 Jul 26 19:15:06 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2620248</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Controversy began with the leak of the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET) paper]]>
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				<![CDATA[A ruling party built on a majority of over 300 seats has just discovered that street numbers can outweigh parliamentary ones. Dharmendra Pradhan&#39;s resignation as India&#39;s education minister on Saturday exposed an emerging fracture in the carefully cultivated image of an invincible BJP government. It is the fall of one man from Narendra Modi&#39;s cabinet. It is proof that a government seen as nearly impervious to public pressure can be made to bend, and that the instrument of that bending was a movement mocking itself by name, called the Cockroach Janata Party.

The controversy began with the leak of the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET) paper, a scandal that affected nearly two million aspiring medical students. For millions of young Indians, these examinations represent the only credible path towards social mobility. When that process was tainted by allegations of corruption and administrative failure, the issue quickly transcended education. It became a referendum on fairness and accountability in a system where opportunities are already scarce. For more than a decade, Prime Minister Narendra Modi&#39;s administration has projected itself as a model of discipline and political control. Yet it was compelled to sacrifice one of its own after weeks of sustained public pressure led by a youth movement that only months ago was dismissed as an online curiosity. The Indian government has tried to create the perception that meritocracy is the cornerstone of their educational advancement. That claim now becomes untenable. It is therefore unsurprising that what began as a protest against examination malpractice evolved into a wider indictment of governance.

Modi may think that replacing a minister may calm immediate political tempers, but it does not repair what has already been fractured. The youth have decided to hold their ground, and what this movement ultimately unfolds into remains to be seen.]]>
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			<title>Credit rating upgrade</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620249/credit-rating-upgrade</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620249/credit-rating-upgrade#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sat, 25 Jul 26 19:15:06 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
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			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2620249</guid>
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				<![CDATA[S&amp;P has also warned that high debt-servicing costs, security risks and regional tensions]]>
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				<![CDATA[For the first time since 2016, Pakistan has regained a &#39;B&#39; sovereign credit rating from S&amp;P Global Ratings. The upgrade from our previous &#39;B-&#39; rating is proof of growing international confidence in our economy. A major factor behind the upgrade has been increased foreign reserves, which had dwindled to $6.7 billion in December 2022 but now stand at $25.3 billion. Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP is also up - though not as much as local and foreign experts would have liked. Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit situation continues to improve, coming down to 4% from almost 8% during FY2022-23.

S&amp;P Global noted that &quot;improved institutional stability&quot; and the successful implementation of IMF-backed reforms have contributed to the improving perception of Pakistan&#39;s economy, as have the recent Eurobond and Panda bond issuances. The upgrade reflects the success of painful but necessary economic policy decisions taken over the past few years. It should also lower borrowing costs, boost investor confidence and open doors to new financing opportunities.

However, it is also worth clarifying that a &#39;B&#39; rating is not particularly high on the scale. In fact, it is still below &#39;investment grade&#39; - meaning S&amp;P still considers Pakistan to be relatively high-risk for investors - and is only the 15th-highest of the 20 ratings on the scale. For comparison, India is currently rated &#39;BBB&#39; - which is considered an &quot;investment grade&quot; rating - and Bangladesh is rated &#39;B+&#39; despite its own economic and political upheaval in recent years. With this in mind, the rating upgrade is certainly notable, but not a &quot;significant milestone&quot; as Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has suggested.

S&amp;P has also warned that high debt-servicing costs, security risks and regional tensions continue to constrain the country&#39;s credit profile, and any weakening of commitment to fiscal consolidation, a resurgence of interest rates or deterioration in external indicators could trigger a downgrade. This is why we need sustainable growth and genuine economic resilience to navigate the path ahead.]]>
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			<title>Digital roll call</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620250/digital-roll-call</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620250/digital-roll-call#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sat, 25 Jul 26 19:15:07 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2620250</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Success of the e-transfer system offers reason for optimism about the digital enrolment system]]>
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				<![CDATA[This year, the Sindh government has been making impressive strides in education by introducing reliable, transparent systems through widespread digitisation. First, under the Sindh Secondary Education Improvement Project, it launched an initiative to shift examinations from manual marking to e-marking, alongside wider digitisation of the exam process. Then it launched an e-transfer system for government school teachers which has also completed at least one full transfer cycle. Now, it plans to digitise the student enrolment system by assigning a unique admission ID against students&#39; B-Forms.

Under this new initiative, enrolment records, academic performances and examination history would all be available for every student under a single, accessible digital system throughout their academic journey. This makes it much easier to track student progress and gauge any issues in their education before they grow into bigger problems that are harder to overturn. For example, students who are at risk of dropping out or have too many absences against their names can be provided school-led interventions to help bring them back on track. Moreover, a digital system will also deter fake enrolments for board examinations where a person sits for an exam under someone else&#39;s name in exchange of money. If every student&#39;s identity is tied to their B-Form from the first day of enrolment, it becomes much harder to insert a fake or duplicate candidate at exam time since the roll number would trace back to a verified NADRA identity rather than a paper form that&#39;s easy to forge.

The success of the e-transfer system offers reason for optimism about the digital enrolment system. If implemented with the same diligence, it could go a long way toward addressing the province&#39;s administrative weaknesses. But announcement and approval are only the first steps - real progress will depend on how consistently these systems are followed through to actual implementation.]]>
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			<title>Festering Afghan crisis</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620081/festering-afghan-crisis-1</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2620081/festering-afghan-crisis-1#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 26 19:35:33 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
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			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2620081</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Dar, while citing over 560 civilian deaths in more than 2,000 terror incidents this year]]>
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				<![CDATA[Pakistan has consistently reminded the international community of the festering Afghan crisis and how terror outfits are playing havoc in the region. This point was once again reiterated by Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar at the SCO Foreign Ministers&#39; Council meeting in Cholpon-Ata, Kyrgyzstan, as he warned that the region is on the verge of a catastrophe. The ground reality is that outlawed entities are regrouping, and Kabul, unfortunately, has failed to act against them. Regional states, as well as the UN and several think tanks, have time and again documented the presence of Al-Qaeda, ISKP, TTP, and other terrorist entities inside Afghanistan that are acting with impunity across borders to further their nefarious designs. If such a clear threat is ignored by the comity of nations, it manifests a short-sighted realpolitik of grave concern and could collectively have a devastating impact.

Dar, while citing over 560 civilian deaths in more than 2,000 terror incidents this year, called for a strengthened counterterrorism mechanism for South and Central Asia. It is here that commitments made by member states have not yet been honoured. This is not only Pakistan&#39;s problem; this terror nexus has now spread into Central Asia and beyond. The onus is on the Taliban rulers to honour their commitments in line with the 2020 Doha Accord. That is the only way to ensure durable peace and stability in the region.

Unless Pakistan and other neighbouring states are insulated from the terrorism emanating from Afghan soil, nothing will change for the better. It must be remembered that multi-billion-dollar projects such as CASA-1000, TAPI, the BRI and several transnational railway initiatives remain in limbo owing to the instability in Afghanistan. This has squarely hampered the progression of geo-economics for a combined populace of around two billion people. Pakistan rightly took the opportunity to spell out at the SCO forum that regional intransigence is a threat to the solidarity and sovereignty of member states, warning against those who exploit instability to impose their hegemony. India&#39;s unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and Kabul&#39;s snub to diplomatic treaties are cases in point.]]>
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			<title>Modern Tech Leadership: Building Systems That Scale</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2545646/modern-tech-leadership-building-systems-that-scale</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2545646/modern-tech-leadership-building-systems-that-scale#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Tue, 13 May 25 18:54:31 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Shaukat Ali Khan]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2545646</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[The author is Advisor to the President, Aga Khan University.]]>
			</description>
			<content:encoded>
				<![CDATA[In the crucible of modern technology leadership, where AI advancements outpace human adaptation and market shifts occur in real time, a new paradigm has emerged. The most effective tech leaders no longer rely on individual brilliance alone; they architect organizational systems that transform pressure into performance.

Recent data reveals a troubling reality: 61% of tech executives report unsustainable stress levels (Harvard Business Review), while leadership fatigue costs the industry $300 billion annually in lost productivity (Deloitte). These numbers underscore a fundamental truth &mdash; the challenges of tech leadership have evolved beyond what any individual can manage through sheer willpower.

The unique pressures facing tech leaders manifest in three critical dimensions. Decision-making occurs against a backdrop of exponential data growth, with IDC reporting that global data volumes double every two years &mdash; a reality that leaves 49% of tech leaders experiencing decision paralysis (MIT Sloan). Alignment becomes increasingly fragile in distributed engineering teams, where Gallup finds only 28% of technologists feel deeply connected to their company&#39;s mission. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization documents a 35% surge in leadership burnout since 2020, particularly acute in the tech sector&rsquo;s always-on culture.

What separates thriving tech leaders from those who merely survive? The answer lies in systematic approaches to five fundamental pillars of leadership. Vision in technology organizations must be both aspirational and adaptable. McKinsey research confirms that tech companies with dynamic, clearly articulated visions grow 1.5 times faster than competitors. Microsoft&rsquo;s transformation under Satya Nadella exemplifies this principle, where reframing the company&rsquo;s mission around empowerment rather than devices catalyzed a trillion-dollar market cap surge while increasing engineering team alignment by 32% (Harvard Business Review).

Transparency serves as the operating system for modern tech organizations. In an industry where Gartner reports 70% of technical initiatives fail to meet objectives, Gallup data shows that teams with transparent leaders demonstrate 3.5 times higher engagement. This principle manifests in radical openness &mdash; from GitLab&rsquo;s 6,000-page public handbook to Datadog&rsquo;s transparent incident postmortems &mdash; practices that Aberdeen Group links to 47% higher shareholder returns in tech companies.

The velocity of technological change demands unprecedented decisiveness. Stanford research indicates that hesitation costs tech firms 30% in lost innovation speed, while Bain &amp; Company data reveals that leaders who make critical decisions within 48 hours of receiving data drive 40% faster growth. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang&rsquo;s 2006 bet on CUDA architecture, made against prevailing wisdom, demonstrates how such decisive leadership builds enduring competitive advantage in the AI era.

Resilience in tech leadership requires more than personal fortitude &mdash; it demands institutionalized systems for recovery. The Journal of Applied Psychology documents that resilient tech leaders drive 25% more innovation output, with MIT research showing 82% attribute their success to structured problem-solving frameworks rather than individual heroics. Apple&rsquo;s resurgence under Steve Jobs emerged not from charismatic leadership alone, but from implementing ruthless product prioritization systems that transformed a billion-dollar loss into a $350 billion valuation.

Stakeholder trust functions as technical debt for tech leaders &mdash; it compounds quietly but determines long-term viability. PwC&rsquo;s CEO Survey finds 85% of tech leaders directly link trust to valuation, a connection exemplified by AMD&rsquo;s Lisa Su, who rebuilt investor confidence through transparent technology roadmaps after near collapse. Edelman data confirms that tech companies maintaining high stakeholder trust achieve 2.5 times greater revenue growth during market fluctuations.

The most forward-thinking tech leaders recognize that sustainable success emerges from systems rather than individual brilliance. Harvard research demonstrates that structured decision frameworks reduce deliberation time by 50% &mdash; critical when AI models can obsolete strategies overnight. McKinsey findings show that teams with clear systems adapt 60% faster to disruptions like API deprecations or supply chain shocks. Even failures become accelerants when properly analysed. Stanford studies reveal that tech organizations conducting rigorous postmortems improve 30% faster after setbacks.

This new leadership calculus represents a fundamental shift in how tech organizations scale. The most effective leaders don&rsquo;t simply make better decisions &mdash; they build better decision-making systems. They don&rsquo;t just communicate; they engineer transparency into their organizational DNA. They recognize that in an era of continuous deployment and real-time market shifts, sustainable leadership comes not from being the smartest engineer in the room, but from creating environments where every engineer can perform at their best. As artificial intelligence reshapes the technological landscape, this systematic approach to leadership may prove to be the ultimate competitive advantage.

The data leaves little room for debate &mdash; the future belongs to tech leaders who architect organizations as thoughtfully as they design systems. In doing so, they transform the overwhelming complexity of modern technology leadership from a crisis to be managed into a competitive edge to be leveraged. The organizations that embrace this paradigm won&rsquo;t just survive the coming waves of disruption &mdash; they&rsquo;ll define them.]]>
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			<title>Hurdles in materialization of GCC’s economic ventures in Pakistan</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517229/hurdles-in-materialization-of-gccs-economic-ventures-in-pakistan</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517229/hurdles-in-materialization-of-gccs-economic-ventures-in-pakistan#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 20 Dec 24 05:55:06 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Syed Ahmed Ali]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2517229</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Pakistan must boost economic productivity to enhance trade ties with GCC countries and ensure sustainable growth.]]>
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				<![CDATA[The organization of the Gulf Cooperation Council was formed in 1981 which consists of six states: Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. The Gulf region is one of the most resource-rich areas namely crude oil and gas. In recent years the GCC countries have reduced their dependency on energy trade and promoted economic diversification. To pursue their economic diversification initiative, GCC countries have engaged in cooperation with other regions such as South Asia, which offers key resources and technical expertise. Pakistan being a member state of the South Asian region, stands at the crossroads to either connect itself with external regions such as the Middle East or risk economic isolation.

Huma Yusuf in an article titled &ldquo;Wide Gulf&rdquo; analyzed the GCC approach to the South Asian region, which seems to develop economic relations with India while maintaining military cooperation with Pakistan on specific security issues alongside occasional economic packages to aid Pakistan&rsquo;s ailing economy. Pakistan&rsquo;s GCC policy prioritizes political and security issues over developing economic relations. As noted by Shashank Joshi, Pakistan&rsquo;s relations with Arab states seem to be military-centric. As a consequence, Pakistan&#39;s economy suffers from a lack of a conducive environment for economic productivity and regional integration.

Pakistan&#39;s economic cooperation with GCC states while still in its infancy does touch some important sectors which need to be explored. The most important sector between Pakistan and the GCC economic relations is the energy trade. In July 2023, Saudi Arabia announced that it would invest 10 billion dollars in Gwadar, Balochistan to construct an oil refinery, which would help with GCC energy exports in the South Asian region. In the same year, the UAE signed a memorandum (MoU) for the possibility of developing renewable energy in Pakistan. In 2016 Qatar became a major supplier of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to Pakistan through its LNG terminal agreement which was worth 15 billion dollars for a 15-year supply.

Apart from helping the energy sector, the GCC has also helped develop the Infrastructure of Pakistan, particularly in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. On the 22nd of October 2022, Saudi Arabia agreed to fund infrastructure projects in Neelum Valley and Muzaffarabad worth 30 billion rupees as a part of its Saudi Fund for Development (SFD). The SFD is a Saudi government assistance program that helps provide financial assistance to developing countries. Apart from providing financial aid to governmental projects, the GCC is a major investor in the real estate business in Pakistan. In 2013 Malik Riaz of the Bahria Group and Sheikh Nahyan of the Abu Dhabi Group invested 45 billion dollars in Pakistan&rsquo;s real estate industry, where they invested 10 billion dollars in Lahore and 35 billion in Karachi.

Apart from the real estate industry, the GCC countries have made a significant impact on various sectors of Pakistan&rsquo;s economy. In 2009 the Saudi government leased 500,000 acres of agricultural land from Pakistan to grow wheat as a means to ensure Saudi food security. Apart from the agricultural industry, the GCC supports Pakistani manufacturing by importing construction materials like cement. In 2004 Pakistan received a demand for cement of about 2000 tons per week from the UAE, which was supplied by Lucky Cement, DG Khan, and Attock In the field of fertilizer production Saudi Companies like SABIC have invested in Pakistan&rsquo;s fertilizer manufacturing through National Chemical Fertilizer Company (NFC).

The investments and economic aid provided by the GCC to Pakistan are channeled through joint cooperation organizations. One such organization is the UAE-Pakistan Assistance Program (UAE-PAP) which provided 200 million dollars of economic aid to Pakistan in May 2018. The objective of this funding was to provide humanitarian assistance to the vulnerable people in Pakistan. More recently, the Saudi-Pakistan Investment Conference announced a 20 billion investment, which covered diverse areas including energy, agriculture, and the environment.

Pakistan GCC trade relations are import intensive, where Gulf investors look to attract Pakistani investment in real estate, export their energy industry, and lease agricultural lands. In 2016 the trade deficit between Pakistan and GCC countries was 1.1 billion dollars, this increased to 1.3 billion dollars in 2020. The trade relationship between GCC and Pakistan is driven by rising imports and the depreciation of the Pakistani rupee which leads to the depletion of Pakistan&rsquo;s foreign exchange reserves. This vicious cycle of rising import costs and increasing foreign debt can only be mitigated through boosting economic productivity which is essential to have a long-lasting sustainable trade relationship with the GCC.

Pakistan faces significant challenges in its governance system to boost its economic productivity. Pakistan historically has inconsistency in its policy-making owing to political instability and frequent change in governments. Pakistan lacks a shared framework of economic policies shared by all stakeholders, which often leads to disruption of the previous policies initiated by the previous government. To make matters worse Pakistan&#39;s administration system suffers from red-tapism, where bureaucratic delays and complicated forms make it difficult for potential investors to invest.

Pakistan faces an acute energy crisis, where the cost of energy makes the cost of doing business too high. This leads to industrial regression where many investors look to set up their production plants where the energy costs are low. The use of renewable energy resources such as hydroelectric power plants can help reduce the cost of energy production. Solar panel technology for localized energy production is ideal in remote areas lacking grid connectivity. Energy costs can be reduced by using localized source fuels, such as Thar coal which is a cheaper alternative than foreign imported coal.

Pakistan needs export diversification, where the government needs to encourage the growth of new industrial sectors such as IT and the pharmaceutical industry. These industries produce greater value-added products which have a greater value meaning a greater inflow of foreign currency. Pakistan can help the growth of these new industrial sectors by providing export incentives such as reducing taxes on export industries. The government can also provide technical training services to help improve labor productivity.

Through these measures, Pakistan can improve its economic productivity and increase its foreign exchange currency reserves, which is important to build a more sustainable and long-lasting trade partnership with GCC countries. Such trade relations will help Pakistan&rsquo;s economy to grow and build stronger cooperation with the Gulf region.

The writer is an analyst on Middle East and South Asia]]>
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			<title>Schrödinger’s Cat and Pakistan’s Economy: Alive, dead, or both?</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517054/schrodingers-cat-and-pakistans-economy-alive-dead-or-both</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517054/schrodingers-cat-and-pakistans-economy-alive-dead-or-both#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Thu, 19 Dec 24 10:18:40 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Dr Aneel Salman]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2517054</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Pakistan’s economy is in flux, showing signs of life but facing challenges that keep it uncertain.]]>
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				<![CDATA[Imagine a cat in a sealed box, both alive and dead at the same time&mdash;Schr&ouml;dinger&rsquo;s famous thought experiment in quantum mechanics. Now replace the cat with Pakistan&rsquo;s economy, and you have a paradox that would make even Erwin Schr&ouml;dinger scratch his head.

Is Pakistan&rsquo;s economy thriving, or is it a mirage of temporary improvements? Like the metaphorical box, the truth only reveals itself once we look deeper. On the surface, Pakistan&rsquo;s economy seems to be showing signs of life. Inflation, which was roaring just months ago, has started to ease, particularly in food prices.

In November 2024, inflation dropped sharply to 4.9%, down from over 30% in 2023, providing relief to households that have struggled with sky-high grocery bills.
From a broader perspective, fiscal and external accounts appear to be turning a corner. The government&rsquo;s disciplined spending has led to a primary surplus, a feat that many developing economies struggle to achieve.

The current account has posted a surplus for three consecutive months, indicating improved external balances. Foreign exchange reserves have crossed $12 billion for the first time in over two years, reaching $12.04 billion in November 2024, reducing immediate fears of default.
There&rsquo;s even talk of Pakistan re-entering the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which could bring much-needed foreign portfolio investments.

The stock market has responded with renewed enthusiasm, with the benchmark share index hitting a lifetime high following the IMF&rsquo;s approval of a $7 billion bailout deal.
Corporate Pakistan, despite the recent turmoil, is cautiously optimistic. Banks have reported soaring profits, with some of the highest returns in Asia, due to high-interest rates and increased government borrowing.

The technology sector has attracted international venture capital, signalling confidence in the country&rsquo;s young talent pool. Agricultural reforms, including better irrigation and the introduction of high-yield seeds, are starting to pay off. In the FMCG sector, multinationals are reporting growth as consumer demand begins to recover. Meanwhile, automotive assemblers and manufacturers are ramping up production after a prolonged slump.

But here&rsquo;s the twist: Schr&ouml;dinger&rsquo;s cat is still in the box. Is this economic revival genuinely sustainable, or is it a temporary high? Much of the current stability hinges on policy measures that are inherently short-term. Import restrictions and remittance inflows have propped up reserves, but what happens when those restrictions are lifted? Is the economy fundamentally stronger, or are we just seeing a Band-Aid over a deep wound?

Debt remains the elephant&mdash;or perhaps the tiger&mdash;in the room. Pakistan&rsquo;s external debt obligations are massive, requiring substantial foreign exchange outflows. Without consistent export growth or foreign direct investment (FDI), the current account surplus could quickly vanish. The energy sector, despite progress in renewable projects, still struggles with circular debt and over-reliance on imported fuels, making it vulnerable to global shocks.

And let&rsquo;s not forget the perpetual wild card: politics. Policy consistency and investor confidence often take a backseat to political turmoil. In a country where ministers change faster than seasons, long-term economic planning is easier said than done.

So, what&rsquo;s the way forward for Pakistan&rsquo;s Schr&ouml;dinger economy? To truly open the box and find a thriving economy inside, Pakistan must shift from firefighting to systemic reform. Exports need to diversify beyond textiles&mdash;IT services, for instance, hold enormous untapped potential. Investment in renewable energy and domestic resources can reduce the dependency on volatile global fuel markets.
The tax system needs a complete overhaul.

Broadening the tax base by formalizing the informal economy is crucial. Digitization of tax processes has started, but enforcement and trust-building with businesses remain key. Regional trade offers another lifeline. Strengthening trade with Afghanistan, Central Asia, and even India could open up new economic corridors and stabilize supply chains.

Pakistan must also tackle inefficiencies in state-owned enterprises, which continue to bleed the exchequer. Privatization or restructuring, though politically sensitive, could reduce fiscal drag. Finally, political and institutional stability cannot be overstated. A consistent policy framework and good governance are critical to unlocking the country&rsquo;s potential.

As of now, Pakistan&rsquo;s economy remains in a superposition&mdash;alive, dead, or somewhere in between. The current signs are hopeful, but as any physicist&mdash;or economist&mdash;would tell you, the true state only reveals itself with time, data, and bold action. Until then, Schr&ouml;dinger&rsquo;s cat, or rather Pakistan&rsquo;s economy, keeps us guessing.

&nbsp;]]>
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			<title>Breaking free from inertia</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2573191/breaking-free-from-inertia</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2573191/breaking-free-from-inertia#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sun, 19 Oct 25 19:19:25 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Nadeem Javaid]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2573191</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Pakistan finds itself unable to prosper]]>
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				<![CDATA[Pakistan once stood at the edge of promise - a young nation alive with ambition, industry, and the dream of joining Asia&#39;s rising tigers. But somewhere along the way, that energy dimmed. Growth lost its rhythm, and progress began to circle instead of climb. The country now finds itself caught in what economists call the Middle-Income Trap &mdash; a place where nations rise above abject poverty but fail to reach prosperity. In this zone, costs rise faster than productivity, innovation stalls, and ambition outpaces capacity. Pakistan, once a symbol of potential, risks becoming an example of inertia &mdash; not poor enough for aid, yet not strong enough to compete.

The trap captures countries that grow through low-wage manufacturing and basic exports but stumble when wages rise, and productivity fails to keep pace. Argentina, Brazil and Thailand have struggled in this space for decades. Pakistan&#39;s case is similar: an economy that moves, but no longer moves forward.

Take exports. Pakistan&#39;s total exports stood around $32 billion, barely changed in years. By contrast, Vietnam&#39;s exports crossed $354 billion, despite both economies starting at similar levels two decades ago. While Bangladesh and Vietnam diversified into electronics, garments and machinery, Pakistan remains locked into low-value textiles and primary commodities. Its inability to upgrade the export base has kept the external sector stagnant and vulnerable.

Human capital tells a similar story. Pakistan spends barely 1.5 per cent of GDP on education - among the lowest in Asia. Millions of children remain out of school, and even university graduates often lack market-relevant skills. Without investment in people, productivity cannot grow - and without productivity, prosperity cannot follow.

Institutional fragility compounds the problem. Every few years, the cycle repeats - IMF bailouts, currency shocks and short-term fiscal fixes. Political volatility and administrative discontinuity have turned policymaking into crisis management. Investors, both domestic and foreign, hesitate in such an environment. High interest rates, arbitrary taxation and poor contract enforcement have produced what might be called a &quot;fear economy&quot; - one where capital hides instead of builds, and risk-taking gives way to risk-avoidance.

Meanwhile, the informal sector dominates. More than 70 per cent of Pakistan&#39;s workforce operates outside formal structures - underpaid, unprotected and untaxed. This keeps productivity low and deprives the state of much-needed revenue. Weak public investment in infrastructure and services then reinforces the cycle of low growth and inequality.

But the most subtle trap is psychological. A comfortable middle class has learned to live with stagnation. Malls expand, cars multiply and consumption thrives, but innovation languishes. Too many seek safety in government jobs or overseas remittances, while too few take the risks that fuel enterprise. It is this quiet acceptance of &quot;just enough&quot; that makes inertia so powerful - and so dangerous.

History, however, offers a way out. South Korea in the 1960s was poorer than Pakistan but climbed out of poverty through export discipline, industrial upgrading and massive investment in education. China transformed from low-end assembly to global technology leadership through long-term planning and institutional focus. Malaysia avoided the trap by building a diversified, knowledge-based economy anchored in policy continuity and political stability. None of these transitions happened overnight; each demanded decades of consistent reform and national purpose.

For Pakistan, breaking free from inertia requires a similar commitment - not cosmetic fixes, but foundational change.

First, invest in people. Raise education and skills spending to at least 45 per cent of GDP. Focus on digital literacy, STEM education and vocational training through public-private partnerships that connect learning with livelihoods.

Second, reform the tax system. Agriculture, real estate and retail must enter the tax net. Simplify compliance through technology and transparency, broaden the base, and reduce distortions that punish the formal sector.

Third, empower cities. Urban centres generate nearly 80 per cent of GDP yet remain fiscally suffocated. Devolving authority to local governments, simplifying business licensing, and expanding microfinance - especially for women - can unleash immense productive potential.

Fourth, separate economic governance from political turbulence. The National Economic Council should guide long-term policy insulated from election cycles, ensuring continuity and coherence.

Fifth, engage the diaspora as partners, not just remitters. Pakistan&#39;s nine million overseas citizens can drive entrepreneurship, investment and technology transfer - injecting new ideas and capital into the economy.

Finally, open markets and ensure fair competition. Decades of protectionism and rent-seeking have entrenched inefficiency. Phasing out distortive subsidies, arbitrary tariffs and discretionary powers would reward productivity and innovation rather than privilege and influence.

Breaking free from inertia is more than an economic task - it is a national awakening. It means replacing short-term fixes with long-term vision, dependency with creativity, and fear with confidence. Pakistan cannot grow by surviving; it must thrive by transforming.

The choice is simple yet profound: remain comfortable in stagnation or embrace the hard climb toward renewal. The Middle-Income Trap is not an inevitability; it&#39;s a choice: to reform or to resign to mediocrity. The real trap isn&#39;t income; it&#39;s inertia. And only courage, consistency and commitment can break it.

The next generation of Pakistanis deserves more than survival. They deserve momentum - born of bold, consistent action, and the courage to leap forward rather than limp in circles.

The writer is the Vice Chancellor of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) and Member at Planning Commission of Pakistan]]>
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			<title>Disaster, destiny and our responsibility</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2564513/disaster-destiny-and-our-responsibility</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2564513/disaster-destiny-and-our-responsibility#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Mon, 01 Sep 25 20:46:59 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[M Zeb Khan]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2564513</guid>
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				<![CDATA[The problem in Pakistan is not belief in destiny itself, but its misinterpretation]]>
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				<![CDATA[When a tragedy strikes in Pakistan, the most common reaction is: &quot;It was God&#39;s will.&quot; This simple phrase has profound power and implications. It helps people cope with unbearable grief, cushions them from prolonged trauma, and provides a collective psychological framework in which loss is given meaning. In a society where faith is deeply woven into daily life, belief in destiny is not just theology - it is therapy.

But beneath this comfort lies a danger. By placing disasters solely in the realm of fate, we risk absolving ourselves of responsibility. Fatalism, when misapplied, can slide from a spiritual solace into a culture of complacency. Instead of asking hard questions about preventable causes, we retreat into resignation. Disasters become not moments of accountability but acts of destiny.

Consider floods. It is true that global climate change has placed Pakistan among the most vulnerable nations on the planet. These global forces are outside our immediate control. Yet, the devastation that follows each season of heavy rains is not a simple natural occurrence. It is compounded, amplified, and often manufactured by local realities.

Overpopulation has pushed communities into flood-prone areas, often along riverbanks where survival is precarious. Unplanned urban sprawl has overwhelmed fragile drainage systems. Deforestation in the north has stripped away natural barriers against floods and landslides. Poorly constructed homes collapse at the first touch of water, while weak infrastructure - roads, bridges and embankments - crumbles under pressure. Corruption and short-term politics mean that dams and canals remain mismanaged, and flood-prevention plans gather dust.

The same logic applies to other calamities. Road accidents are too easily accepted as &quot;God&#39;s will&quot;. But many stem from reckless driving, poorly enforced traffic rules, or vehicles unfit for the road. Factory fires, often deadly, are not acts of destiny but the result of absent safety standards and greed-driven shortcuts. Even terrorism, while politically complex, thrives when security lapses and governance failures create fertile ground. In each case, responsibility disappears behind the shield of fate.

Ironically, this is not what Islam teaches. The Qur&#39;an consistently calls for both reliance on God (tawakkul) and accountability for human action. &quot;Indeed, Allah does not change the condition of a people until they change what is in themselves&quot; (13:11). Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) famously advised a man to tie his camel before trusting in God&#39;s protection. The message is clear: trust in divine decree must go hand in hand with human responsibility. To rely on fate without effort is not faith - it is negligence.

The problem in Pakistan is not belief in destiny itself, but its misinterpretation. Instead of a balanced philosophy that combines spiritual acceptance with worldly responsibility, destiny has been reduced to an excuse. It allows individuals, communities and governments to evade accountability. It transforms what should be moments of collective learning into cycles of repeated tragedy.

The way forward requires a shift in mindset. Disasters must be understood not only as divine tests but as opportunities for reform. When floods strike, the question should not only be, &quot;Why us?&quot; but also, &quot;What must we change?&quot; When accidents occur, the response should not end at grief but extend to improving safety and enforcing laws. When violence erupts, society must hold accountable not only the perpetrators but also the structures that allowed it.

Pakistan cannot afford to treat destiny as a shield against responsibility. The Qur&#39;anic vision of humans as khalifa - stewards of the earth - places upon us a duty of care. This stewardship means planting trees instead of cutting them, enforcing safety standards instead of ignoring them, building resilient infrastructure instead of cheap structures, and investing in disaster preparedness rather than leaving everything to chance.

Disasters will always come. Climate change will make them more frequent, urbanisation will make them more complex, and global politics will make them more unpredictable. But whether they destroy us or strengthen us will depend less on destiny and more on the choices we make.]]>
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			<title>Gaza war - winning and losing</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2572800/gaza-war-winning-and-losing</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2572800/gaza-war-winning-and-losing#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Thu, 16 Oct 25 19:25:22 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Aneela Shahzad]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2572800</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[The truth behind global politics is often obscured by power plays and egos, leaving the innocent to suffer]]>
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				<![CDATA[The upright never defeat evil, but they pretty much expose it. But evil, when exposed, even when drenched in ignominy, raises itself from its lewd bottomness, with the power of its dishonesty and deviousness, to heights of vainglory and fanfare - so that the distance between brazen tyranny and honourable virtue is so great that it is virtually unbridgeable.

This is not new; it is a repeated history. Over 3,000 years back, when Moses brought God&#39;s message, asking the Pharaoh to stop tyranny upon his people and give them their freedom; and proved his truth with the miracle of the staff - what did Pharaoh and his chieftains do with all the miracles? Even when their consciences were telling them that Moses had brought the truth, their self-interests, their gluttony and their rapacity forced them to turn over their inners voices and unite upon the evil that ensures them their worldly luxuries.

&#39;So, they disputed, one with another, over their affair, but they kept secret their whispers. They said: These two are magicians: their object is to drive you out from your land with their magic, and to do away with your most exemplary ways. So, put together your plan, and then assemble in ranks: He wins today who gains the upper hand,&#39; (TaHa;62-64).

Three lines from the Quran give a complete anatomy of the psychology in play. If you are for the overkill, the lavish overabundance, the excess powers, you suppress your morality. You malign the righteous as criminals, terrorist and &#39;magicians&#39;. And you unite with all the powerful, resourceful elites, ensure one another of the exemplary &#39;way of life&#39; and regimes you have, and put your plans together. And then you tell each other that you just need to win the moment - meaning that if you are able to show the people that your sorcerers are abler than the two brothers, the people will willfully accept your power.

Now, 3,000 years later, imagine Pharaoh&#39;s court and his chieftains, and imagine Sharm as Sheikh! And just imagine for yourself, who is the Pharaoh, who are the chieftains, who are the ones who aggrandise their tyranny as true power, and who are the sorcerers that make the people of the world believe that peace has been brought to war-torn Gaza!

Humanity looks with bewildered eyes - on Monday there was a ceasefire. On Tuesday, Israel shot down five more Gazans. On Monday, UN Undersecretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher was excited about the humanitarian scale-up; on Tuesday, he said the organisation faced &quot;further setbacks to the implementation&quot;. On Monday, President Trump was hailed for the Gaza Plan; on Tuesday, he was threatening to disarm Hamas &quot;violently&quot;. And on Wednesday, Centcom chief Brad Cooper was calling upon Hamas to &quot;immediately suspend violence and shooting at innocent Palestinian civilians in Gaza&quot;, both in Hamas-controlled areas and behind the so-called yellow line where Israeli troops are stationed. What was the peace deal then, if there was any?

The truth is that humanity was not told anything about the deal or what had been agreed to. On the face of it, it seems that Hamas was forced to hand over its only leverage, the hostages, in return for empty promises that most of us don&#39;t believe in. Was it a deal for letting Netanyahu go scot-free from all his court cases then, and let the Israelis pretend they have won? Was it just a prop-up to satisfy Trump&#39;s ego after he lost the Nobel peace prize? Was it a move to put a quiet on the Gaza front so that a full attack on Iran could be prepared for? Or was it just a commonplace sorcery, to stupefy humanity, while the genocide goes on in full? Or, was it a game of the survival for leaders, who want legitimacy in the eyes of their people, and who don&#39;t actually want an end to wars because they thrive on conflict and enmity.

Offensive realist Mearsheimer describes an anarchic world where every state is for its own and where states transfer the responsibility to act to other states while remaining on the sidelines - it&#39;s called buck-passing. So do we see the Muslim states passing the buck over to the Arabs? And the Arabs conveniently passing the buck onto Trump, who has no concern with the lives or welfare of the Palestinians, and who is best buddies with Netanyahu? So how does all this work? Are the states of the Ummah just thinking to keep passing the buck so that they can have peace in their states and have their multi-billion projects and their luxuries, while Gaza and the West Bank burn and bleed? How long will this work?

By the way, are the &#39;innocent Palestinian civilians in Gaza&#39; that Brad Cooper mentioned Hamas was killing, not the IDF collaborators that they have prepared to wreak havoc in Gaza when they are gone? Are they not the same gangsters who have been looting the humanitarian aid at IDF&#39;s behest? If the Centcom chief wants to protect them, imagine what the calculus of peace drawn in his mind would be!

All this when the IDF forces still remain in two-thirds of Gaza; when humanitarian convoys are still not passing the check-posts; when Israeli leadership is repeating to this day that it won&#39;t have a Palestinian state; and that it is determined to destroy Hamas; and, in the words of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, to ethnically cleanse Palestinians from Gaza. The truth is that Israel sees every war as an opportunity for expulsion of Palestinians, just like in 1948 and 1967.

And the truth is that the US will never cut Israel&#39;s aid; Israel will blame Hamas for something, backfoot on the ceasefire, and the genocide will go on. Because, Israeli perspective is not peace and political stability in the region, its perspective is Zionistic, it is maximising Jewish control, minimising Palestinian presence.

So, the question every member of human society must ask is: is this the way global politics is being run - of satisfying egos of biggity men; of putting trade over human lives; of letting the killing of 70,000 people just for the imperialist dream of an ally? Is this the exemplary &#39;way of life&#39; the leaders of our times propound? And are our votes in the ballot box stamping upon their powers?

Surely then, with our votes, genocide has won and humanity has lost.]]>
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			<title>American strategic deception</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518072/american-strategic-deception</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518072/american-strategic-deception#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Tue, 24 Dec 24 20:24:21 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Zamir Akram]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2518072</guid>
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				<![CDATA[The US also maintains massive nuclear deterrence capability in comparison with which Pakistan's assets are miniscule.]]>
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				<![CDATA[Speaking at an American think-tank on 19 December, Jon Finer, the Deputy National Security Advisor in the Biden Administration, claimed that Pakistan&#39;s development of long-range missiles &quot;will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including the United States&quot;. He added that it was &quot;hard for us to see Pakistan&#39;s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States&quot;.

This sweeping and speculative assertion coming only two days after the US imposed sanction on Pakistani entities allegedly involved in missile development could hardly be a coincidence.

This is obviously part of a well-orchestrated charade intended to deny Pakistan the capability to ensure credible deterrence against India&#39;s rapid development of its strategic arsenal including long range air, land and sea based missiles to be deployed on offshore Indian assets and nuclear powered submarines.

This blatantly discriminatory American policy behind the smoke-screen that Pakistan seeks to threaten the US itself is patently ludicrous and disingenuous. Even objective Americans would find this hard to digest. Indeed, this is strategic deception at its worst.

The US is well aware that ever since Pakistan&#39;s nuclear tests in response to India&#39;s in 1998, its strategic doctrine is focused on ensuring credible deterrence exclusively against India.

Accordingly, Pakistan&#39;s strategic capabilities are not directed against any other country except India, least of all the US. Besides, there is no rationale for Pakistan to threaten the US with which it has no dispute and where millions of Pakistanis reside.

The US also maintains a massive nuclear deterrence capability in comparison with which Pakistan&#39;s assets are miniscule. For Pakistan to attack the US would, therefore, be suicidal.

In open forum discussions on this issue over the recent past with American officials and experts, Pakistani interlocutor, myself involved, have sought clarity and rational arguments that would explain American concern. But none have been offered.

There have been vague and weak arguments that since Pakistan is China&#39;s ally, its strategic capabilities are a part of the threat from China. This begs the question as to why Pakistan, even as a Chinese ally, would jeopardise its own existence by attacking the US?

The truth is that these American allegations are a ploy and an obvious deception. The objective is to protect India&#39;s strategic interests against China. To achieve this, the US wants India to focus on China and not be distracted by competition from Pakistan.

But from Pakistan&#39;s perspective, Indian capabilities ostensibly against China can also be used against Pakistan. In fact, after the thrashing India received from China in 1962, it has no inclination whatsoever to engage in a conflict with the Chinese. But New Delhi will continue to exploit the threat from China to benefit from American hand-outs as Washington&#39;s &#39;Net Security Provider&#39;.

However, for Pakistan, the Indian military build-up presents an existential threat. India has used the American supported nuclear waiver to increase its nuclear arsenal. It has developed short, medium and long range air, land and sea based missiles. It has acquired nuclear powered and nuclear armed submarines. In 2019, India tested an anti-satellite missile (ASAT) and has developed a multi-layered Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) System, involving American Patriot, Israeli Arrow and Russian S-400 missiles.

India is also developing hypersonic missiles while inducting new and emerging technologies into its weapon systems with American assistance. At the same time, Indian strategic bases are being set up in the Indian Ocean, most notably in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and possibly in the Indian Ocean. Additionally, as a part of the US-backed Quadrilateral alliance in the Asia-Pacific, India may obtain basing facilities in the territories of its alliance parties - the US, Japan and Australia.

For Pakistan these developments present existing and potential challenges in the future for which it must be prepared to ensure credible deterrence. Pakistan has already ensured, through its full spectrum deterrence policy, deterrence at the operational, tactical and strategic levels.

It maintains credible second strike capability adequate for its needs. Its land, air and sea based Babur cruise missiles and the MIRVed Ababheel missiles provide capability to penetrate Indian BMD systems. The Shaheen 2 and 3 long range missiles cover the Indian mainland and offshore assets.

However, since deterrence is dynamic depending on changes in technologies and policies, Pakistan cannot afford to foreclose its future options. For instance, development of Indian bases with nuclear armed missiles deep in the Indian Ocean would require Pakistan to develop longer range missiles.

Similarly, Pakistan&#39;s space assets including satellites which are becoming increasingly vital for civilian and military purposes, may come to be threatened by ASATs which India has already tested.

Therefore, for effective deterrence to protect its satellites in future, Pakistan would need an ASAT capability for which long range missiles are essential. Also, to benefit from future space operations, Pakistan would need the capability to launch satellites which require developing a Space Launch Vehicle (SLV) capability. For all these reasons, Pakistan has a legitimate right to develop its long range missile/rocket programme.

If the US has legitimate concerns about Pakistan&#39;s missile development programme, even as the assertion that Pakistan would threaten the US is nonsensical, a reasonable arrangement based mutual non-attack assurances can provide a logical solution. But, since the US does not seek this option, the conclusion is inescapable that America&#39;s true motives are different and the allegations made by the likes of Jon Finer are nothing but an elaborate deception.

America&#39;s true intentions are betrayed by its discriminatory sanctions imposed on Pakistani entities as was done again a few days ago. There are more than 160 such entities that have been sanctioned since 1998 while none in India.

If Washington was truly interested in South Asian security and protecting its own national interests, it should pursue a non-discriminatory and balanced policy towards Pakistan and India. Instead, India has been given a free pass to build up its strategic capabilities while restraint is only being sought from Pakistan. History has demonstrated that discrimination has never succeeded with Pakistan.]]>
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			<title>Time to heal the wounds with Dhaka, and beyond</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518067/time-to-heal-the-wounds-with-dhaka-and-beyond</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518067/time-to-heal-the-wounds-with-dhaka-and-beyond#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Tue, 24 Dec 24 20:24:21 +0500</pubDate>
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				<![CDATA[Ishtiaq Ali Mehkri]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2518067</guid>
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				<![CDATA[Five decades down the line as Bangladesh and Pakistan look back at the trauma, it pains.]]>
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				<![CDATA[The month of December reminds me of Fall of Dhaka in 1971, and the iconic poetry of Naseer Turabi, who in an instant heart-wrenching aura penned a poem reflecting the remorse of dismemberment of East Pakistan in all humility. To this day, the ghazal (ode) he wrote reverberates as a grim reminder of our fallacies in the national milieu, and the trust that the poet had in the truncated section of our erstwhile nationhood.

The legendary poet was felicitous as he wrote: &quot;Woh humsafar thaa magar us sey humnawai na thiKay dhoop chaaon ka aalam raha, judaai na thi&quot; (He was my companion, but with him I didn&#39;t have like-mindedness; Like the clouds and sunlight, together but as apart as can be).

Turabi went on to state the obvious with a big heart: &quot;Adaavatein theen, taghaaful thaa, ranjishein theen magar; Bicharne walay mein sab kuch thaa, be-wafaai na thi&quot; (There were feelings of animosity, indifference and anguish (between us) but; my departed lover had everything (but) hadn&#39;t had unfaithfulness).

Five decades down the line as Bangladesh and Pakistan look back at the trauma, it pains and has nothing to account for but regrets. It is, however, some great consolation that Dhaka is willing to bury the hatchet, and wants to normalise relations with Islamabad. The desire on the part of Dr Muhammad Yunus, the interim leader, to &quot;move on from 1971&quot; is statesmanship.

The new thinking, perhaps, hints at the Bengali nation having come a long way from the Bangabandhu psyche to a progressive, all-inclusive emerging society. The end of Shaikh Hasina&#39;s regime has also impacted in helping Dhaka realise that in an era of geo-economics, carrying the baggage of animosity is an undesired liability.

The plausible interactions are many. The first that needs to be done is to reorient the academia and intelligentsia, and let them brief and debrief over the checkered history in all openness. Trade, commerce and communication avenues are aplenty for a joint populace of around half a billion, with a collective GDP of more than $750 billion.

Apart from buoying trade, both the countries must work together for reviving the moribund eight-nation SAARC, which was conceptualised by Dhaka as a viable organic regional organisation in 1985. Bangladesh can prevail over India to give in its resistance to the regional bloc and help rewrite a new chapter of homogeneity on the pattern of ASEAN. As India sits fingers-crossed with the fall of its ally-dispensation in Dhaka, there can be a quid pro quo for regional amalgamation making it a win-win situation in bilateralism.

The opening up of our quondam eastern flank can unfurl lessons in pluralism, institutional building and respect for political mandate that Bengalis had cherished. Pakistan, unfortunately groped in parochialism these days, can learn a lot and work inwardly for strengthening national unity. With origins of our freedom movement and its founding fathers from Bengal, there is a lot of intellectualism that needs to be revisited, and made part of our national life.

To pick a thread from Faiz Ahmed Faiz, &quot;Kab nazar mein aaye gi be-daagh sabzay ki bahaar; Khoon ke dhabbay dhuleinge kitni barsaaton ke baad...&quot; (When will we see the unsullied green of spring? After how many monsoons will the stains of blood be washed?), it&#39;s time to take a leap forward and connect the dots with Dhaka. An apology from Pakistan - which has expressed regrets over the debacle though - is direly needed for a fresh start.

This also comes as an opportunity to touch-base on the Bihari legion and make an earnest effort to embrace them and heal the wounds of history. Indeed, this reconnecting desires some soul-searching as more than 300,000 Biharis are stranded in Bangladesh - poor souls who stood for Pakistan and paid a price in blood and misery.

If Dhaka can embrace Rohingya Muslims, what prevents Islamabad from bringing back Biharis and undoing their statelessness? Looking beyond the bitterness of 1971 demands an open head and heart, and a comprehensive leap forward is indispensable.]]>
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