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                        <title>News Opinion &amp; Reviews - The Express Tribune</title>
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                        <link>https://tribune.com.pk</link>
                        <description>The Express Tribune keeps you up to date with all the latest happenings from Pakistan and across the world!</description>
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			<title>Is PTI reading the military right?</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632814/is-pti-reading-the-military-right</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632814/is-pti-reading-the-military-right#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sat, 03 Oct 26 19:24:27 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Fahd Husain]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2632814</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Long march, or the threat of it, has only forced it to double down and dig in its heels further]]>
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				<![CDATA[The talks in Islamabad between the government and opposition are important but the developments in Rawalpindi far more so. Let&#39;s do a deep dive.

1. The Corps Commanders&#39; Conference on Friday issued an official statement that was pointedly sharp and direct. A bit surprising even. It addressed many key issues but I want to focus on the political one. The statement said: &quot;Forum underscored the importance of internal stability and resolved that any attempt to cause agitation or create 9th May like situation, on any pretext whatsoever, will be dealt with decisive force and rule of law, without hesitation and discrimination.&quot;

2. In these few words, there are five very distinct and well-considered messages that are timed for maximum impact. Before I spell them out, consider the following for context: (i) talks between the government and opposition in the National Assembly Speaker&#39;s chamber are, at best, an attempt to avert a collision, and not meant to find a durable solution to the political problem; (ii) CM K-P Sohail Afridi remains aggressively ambivalent about the exact nature of the long march even as organisational and strategic disagreements within the party hierarchy weigh him down; (iii) Governor&#39;s Rule and emergency options for K-P by the federal government remain on the table primarily because they are not linked only to the PTI&#39;s long march. There&#39;s a bigger game afoot. A hint of this is contained in the five different messages within the statement of the Commanders&#39; conference. Here&#39;s the breakdown:

3. &quot;Forum underscored the importance of internal stability&quot; These words go to the heart of the system&#39;s foremost priority. The logic underpinning this priority says that stability in policy, in direction, in politics, and on the streets is key to the governance agenda. The rising wave of terrorism is therefore the main challenge to this notion of stability. So is political agitation that triggers uncertainty, disruption and chaos. This is a reminder to the PTI and also a direct message.

4. &quot;(R)esolved that any attempt to cause agitation or create 9th May like situation&quot; A deliberate and clear reference to May 9th is essentially a reiteration that the military&#39;s policy remains unchanged when it comes to PTI&#39;s agitation. The statement could have remained broad in referring to street trouble but it chose to mention May 9th precisely because the military wants the message to be loud, direct and unambiguous. It communicates &ndash; not really between the lines &ndash; that the talks in Islamabad may agree on some give-and-take but a long march to Islamabad in a huge no-no.

5. &quot;(O)n any pretext whatsoever&quot; Notice this &#39;add-on&#39; in the sentence to not only re-emphasise the point but to in fact enlarge and expand the ambit of its definition. Why was this needed? Simply because the statement wants to ensure that any or all reasons or justifications or explanations given for the march or protest or agitation that involve converging on to Islamabad will be rejected, and lumped together as a &quot;9th May like&quot; event. The statement is leaving nothing to chance.

6. &quot;(W)ill be dealt with decisive force and rule of law&quot; The military is telling anyone who cares to listen &ndash; primarily the PTI but also, to a lesser extent, the government &ndash; that force will be applied, and that it will be decisive. These are strong words. They are meant to communicate that there is no room for flexibility when it comes to a response to agitation of the kind that the long march is expected to be. This is the military saying don&#39;t say you were not warned. This is as explicit a warning as they come. Is it meant to be a deterrent? Yes. Is it only meant to be a deterrent? Clearly no.

7. &quot;(W)ithout hesitation and discrimination&quot; The choice of these particular words is telling. The lack of hesitation means the law enforcers will be given free hand to use force. It also suggests the scale of the force used may not be contained. The inference is the state will not think twice before using force to ensure stability. The reference to no discrimination on whom the force may be used on probably means that leaders and workers alike will face the brunt if such a situation does indeed arise.

8. Anyone who reads these five different reiterations of the message by the Corps Commanders&#39; conference together should be under no illusions about what the military means. Perhaps even more important is the fact that the military high command has chosen to be unambiguous in its message at a time when PTI is struggling to figure out if the long march is indeed the best course of action to take. The party may have painted itself into a corner by giving dates. The military is conveying to the PTI there will be no negotiations if there is a gun to the head. It is also telling the government the same thing.

9. Expect very little that will be offered to the PTI. The military&#39;s statement has ensured that. Such a strongly worded statement may not have been issued if the PTI had not escalated the situation to where it has reached today. Climbing up such an escalatory ladder is easy and often tempting, but climbing down entails a cost. What will this cost be? Imposition of Emergency or Governor&#39;s Rule? Further disarray in PTI&#39;s leadership? Greater stiffening of the military&#39;s attitude towards the PTI? It is hard to say at this point. What is not too hard to understand is that PTI&#39;s internal confusion, and its inability or unwillingness to sustain pressure from its rank and file has forced it to make a series of decisions that were not well thought out.

10. The important promotions and postings within the military high command have formalised the culmination of a routine institutional process that was overdue. This may not be connected directly to the churn of politics but it does infuse greater continuity of policy with a relatively new team. PTI needs to start reading the institution better.

If there&#39;s a bottom line here, it is that the system is re-asserting itself and reinforcing its strategic agenda. The long march, or the threat of it, has only forced it to double down and dig in its heels further.]]>
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			<title>Being a teacher</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632809/being-a-teacher</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632809/being-a-teacher#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sat, 03 Oct 26 19:24:27 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Mujeeb Ali]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2632809</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Popular story of Thomas Edison tells us that he was considered an incapable student]]>
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				<![CDATA[A teacher becomes truly noble when he enters a classroom, delivers a lesson, completes the syllabus, and fully grasps the responsibility of &#39;being a teacher&#39;.

What a teacher can do? Few stories illustrate this better than that of Helen Keller. Deaf and blind from early childhood, Keller faced barriers that could easily have confined her to a life of isolation. Her teacher, Anne Sullivan, refused to see her disabilities as the limits of her potential. Through patience, discipline and an extraordinary commitment to teaching, Sullivan helped Keller communicate, read, write and understand the world around her. Keller went on to become an author, lecturer and advocate whose life challenged society&#39;s assumptions about disability.

Similarly, the popular story of Thomas Edison tells us that he was considered an incapable student and was rejected by his teachers. His mother taught him and helped him become a world-famous inventor, enabling him to realise potential that his teachers had failed to recognise.

These stories tell us what it really means to be a teacher.

Having been in the teaching profession for the last fifteen years, I have learned that the title of &quot;teacher&quot; carries a responsibility far greater than the subjects written on a timetable. A student sitting in front of a teacher is not barely a name on an attendance register or a number in a classroom. He is a future citizen, a future parent, a future professional, and, above all, a human being whose character is still being formed.

A teacher can influence that formation.

The responsibility begins with recognising that every child is different. One student may be academically brilliant; another may struggle with examinations but possess creativity, leadership or practical intelligence. One may speak confidently while another remains silent. One may need encouragement; another may need discipline. The teacher&#39;s responsibility is not to force every child into the same mould but to identify potential and provide the guidance through which that potential can develop.

This is where teaching becomes more than a means of earning a living.

A teacher can teach a student that education is not a means of survival or a route to a job. Education can teach a person how to understand life, respect others, think independently and distinguishes right from wrong. Marks may open a door, but character determines what a person does after entering it.

That is why a teacher&#39;s own character matters.

Students do not learn only from what teachers say. They learn from how teachers behave. They observe how a teacher speaks to others, how he treats weaker students, how honestly he performs his duties and how he responds to difficulty. A teacher who demands discipline but does not practise it sends a contradictory message. A teacher who speaks about honesty but compromises his own principles teaches another lesson altogether.

But responsibility for a child&#39;s education cannot rest entirely on the teacher.

Parents are important partners in the educational process. A student may spend several hours at school, but the majority of his time is spent at home or in the wider community. What does he do after school? Does he complete his work honestly? Does he read, practise and revise, or simply find ways to avoid responsibility? How much attention do parents give to these questions?

A teacher, therefore, is not simply a person who completes a syllabus. He is a facilitator, a guide and a bridge between knowledge and the learner. At his best, he can awaken curiosity in a child who has stopped asking questions, confidence in a child who doubts himself, and ambition in a child who cannot yet imagine a different future.

Years later, students may forget a formula, a definition or even a chapter from a textbook. But they rarely forget the teacher who believed in them when they did not believe in themselves.

That is the nobility of teaching.

And that is the responsibility of being a teacher.]]>
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			<title>RoboKing in Pakistan</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632813/roboking-in-pakistan</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632813/roboking-in-pakistan#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sat, 03 Oct 26 19:24:27 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Ali Hassan Bangwar]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2632813</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Pakistan's Optimus Prime would become just another Decepticon]]>
			</description>
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				<![CDATA[For all its existence, Pakistan has seen democrats, dictators and hybrids; liberals and theocrats; gerontocrats and stratocrats. All, however, either served the system at the cost of the people or inflicted such heavy blows on the country that humane leadership of integrity, vision and empathy could never gain a decisive voice. Democrats, liberals, centrists, rightists, leftists, socialists, feminists and civil society have all traded faith and trust and, for their fair share, betrayed their ideologies, manifestos and mandates. Thus, the system recycles the same leaders under different names and slogans, and barely cares a damn about any leader of vision, empathy and integrity. As a result, the great country with great potential finds itself running in a groove. The reason is not that there is no pragmatic way out of the imbroglio; it is that, for the ruling elite, the quagmire is itself the way out, since it sustains the system and all the perks and wrongdoings attached to it.

Who else, if anyone, and if given a chance, would likely change the fate of the people for the better? Where does the way out of the country&#39;s current poly-crisis lie? Does the system itself not coopt, neutralise and sabotage every possible way out?

A student recently asked, amid dehumanised human leadership and the sweeping scope of AI, whether giant, humanised, enthroned robots as kind as Optimus Prime and Bumblebee, two of the most iconic heroes of the Autobots, who wage an endless war against the evil Decepticons, would offer a panacea to the socio-economic, political and ethnic ills plaguing the world in general and Pakistan in particular. Since they inherently hold no interests, have no children for whom to plunder the national wealth and harbour no greed or lust for wealth, they would deliver for the people rather than the system. Wouldn&#39;t they?

For the student, a cyber-king or RoboKing, perfectly programmed with positive values, might help rid the country of greed and of the trading of faith, truth and public rights. However, whether a RoboKing programmed with positive values would remain uncorrupted when surrounded by the traditional elite is highly doubtful.

Granted, a RoboKing might pass as a leader of integrity, given all his programming. A king alone, however, would rarely change things single-handedly or undo the stakes of the hordes of existing human ministers, advisers, media persons, civil, human-rights and women&#39;s-rights activists, politicians and dynastic despots, among others, who thrive in symbiosis with each other and in parasitism on the country and its people. Such a king would ignite little, if any, hope, let alone instil positive traits in them. Because of their stakes, the traditional stakeholders, for all their perks and wrongdoings, would tend to lure the king into being humanised and then demonised like themselves.

For instance, to secure the perks they have amassed for their own children, they would brainwash the King into adopting children and into making offshore, or rather off-planet, assets on the Moon, Mars and elsewhere. To this end, the human stakeholders would gaslight the King and persuade him that he is human. Thereafter, aides, including those in the media, would persuade the King to amend the framework and declare himself human, only to see him later demonised like themselves.

Then the clergy would deify the king, and the judiciary would legitimise his humanness. The politicians would expunge his intrinsic values, while civil society, social activists and all those whose interests are tied to the decades-long system would bow before him.

This way, the RoboKing&#39;s inbuilt algorithm would be erased, leaving behind the dehumanised and demonised leaders the country has seen for decades. As a result, the King would receive the highest honour the system bestows: interstellar assets and interplanetary bank accounts, lunar plots, Martian spoils, yet another political dynasty, a multiplication of the system&#39;s beneficiaries, and a glowing biography penned by courtiers. As usual, he would blame his pure and inherent algorithm for the entire quagmire.

In this system, Pakistan&#39;s Optimus Prime would become just another Decepticon, mutating in robes, beads, candles, mandarins, hired pens and gavels.]]>
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			<title>Rethinking education in Pakistan</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632815/rethinking-education-in-pakistan</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632815/rethinking-education-in-pakistan#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sat, 03 Oct 26 19:24:27 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Dr Muhammad Ali Ehsan]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2632815</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Pakistan needs and deserves a major social transformation]]>
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				<![CDATA[If to do were as easy to know that were good to do,

Chapels had been churches, and poor man&#39;s cottages princes&#39; palaces.

(Portia, The Merchant of Venice)

&nbsp;

Pakistan needs and deserves a major social transformation, one built on the principle that opportunities for every individual should be maximised while aggressive and destructive tendencies are effectively discouraged. Such a transformation will not happen overnight. It will require generational effort. But its foundation must be laid today, and that foundation is education. If education is expected to transform society, then society must also transform the way it thinks about and provides education. That requires a fundamental change in the priorities of the political leadership that has governed this country and which has consistently treated education as a secondary concern. How can Pakistan aspire to become a modern, welfare-oriented democratic state when more than 30 million school-age children remain out of school?

Education should be treated as an end in itself, not merely as a means to an end. There is no dearth of behavioural scientists in our country, and if the quantity and quality of education we provide can be aligned with what these behavioural scientists tell us about human behaviour, character and social development, we may reasonably hope to see a change in the nature and performance of our governments, say twenty years from now. Education is one of the most vital institutions of any society because its influence extends far beyond the acquisition of knowledge and skills. It shapes the kind of individuals and citizens a society produces. The importance of this idea was beautifully captured in the opening line of Dr Asghar Zaidi&#39;s article, &#39;What a week at Oxford taught me about character foundation&#39;, published in this newspaper on September 29, 2026. He wrote: &quot;Teaching has gone on in Oxford for nine centuries and it has never confined itself to what a person knows; it has always cared what a person becomes.&quot;

The analogy of the duel helps explain how societies change. An old system often survives until people begin to recognise and experience its harmful consequences, thus creating demand for something better. In societies where dueling was once accepted as a legitimate means of settling disputes, the practice continued for as long as its social legitimacy endured. However, changing ideas about law, justice and social order helped replace such practices with more institutionalised forms of dispute resolution. The same principle applies to education. Quality education is perhaps the most important shield a society can develop against incompetence reaching positions of power. The premise is that society must first change the nature and quality of education if education is eventually to change society. Such change requires a government capable of asking the right questions about the kind of society it wants to build, challenging outdated assumptions and developing policies that give education the priority, structure and resources necessary to produce that transformation.

There is a magnetic effect in the way functioning societies draw newly graduated students towards them. Graduates look forward to becoming responsible stakeholders in a society that offers them opportunities to use their knowledge, build their careers and contribute to something larger than themselves. In Pakistan, however, many university graduates look beyond their own society and see political turmoil, governments and opposition locked in an almost perpetual power struggle, and a political environment marked by protests, confrontation and intimidation. They are increasingly encouraged to imagine a more secure and rewarding professional future abroad, and many consequently begin to see emigration not simply as an opportunity but as an escape from an uncertain future at home.

One of the important responsibilities of university education is to develop in students a sense of citizenship, responsibility and commitment to the society in which they live. Yet that commitment becomes difficult to sustain when the society awaiting them outside the university appears to contradict what they have been taught inside it. A simple example used to explain order to students is the difference between a row of books neatly arranged on a shelf and a heap of books scattered across the floor. The former represents order, the latter, disorder. But when students look beyond the university walls, they may see a society that resembles the heap of books more than the orderly shelf.

The law appears inconsistent, and it very often and most relentlessly seems to favour the strong. The prevailing uncertainty and insecurity in the society decreases the incentive of university students to become committed stakeholders in the society outside. Having studied politics and history, university students are also aware of the repeated difficulties Pakistan has faced in securing its economic and security interests. They are taught to value order, accountability and institutional discipline, yet they encounter a political system in which these principles often appear difficult to sustain. The contradiction is difficult to ignore. We educate young people to become responsible citizens, while the society into which they graduate often gives them reasons to look elsewhere.

Pakistan does not lack the knowledge of what needs to be done. What it has lacked is the will to do what it knows to be necessary. If education is to become the instrument of social transformation, it must be treated not as an expenditure to be minimised or a means of producing degrees, but as the foundation on which the character of the nation is built. The real test of our educational system is therefore not simply how many graduates it produces, but what kind of citizens those graduates become and what kind of society is waiting for them when they leave the university. We cannot continue teaching our young people the virtues of order, merit, accountability and responsibility while exposing them to institutions that routinely contradict those very principles. The change we seek may take a generation, but every change begins with a decision. If, as Portia reminds us, doing what is good were as easy as knowing what is good, Pakistan would already have changed. The challenge before us is to finally turn what we know into what we can do.]]>
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			<title>Why humanity's quest for order still matters</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632657/why-humanitys-quest-for-order-still-matters</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632657/why-humanitys-quest-for-order-still-matters#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 26 22:18:29 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Bilal Ahmad]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2632657</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Our normal habits focus on creating local order]]>
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				<![CDATA[Human society is caught in a permanent contradiction: while we constantly build rules, routines and industrial systems to keep things organised, the fundamental laws of physics show that every action we take pushes the universe closer to total disorder.

On a daily basis, our normal habits focus on creating local order. Think about a simple morning routine: making coffee, following a strict sleep schedule or organising an office desk. Each action requires energy, whether from personal metabolism or electricity. According to the Second Law of Thermodynamics, energy use is never completely efficient; it always releases waste heat into the surrounding environment. When you clean a room or live a disciplined life, you reduce disorder inside that small space, but you do so by releasing heat and energy that increase the total disorder of the wider world. In short, we create order locally by adding to disorder globally.

This small-scale accumulation of energy use grows into major global problems, such as climate change, severe flooding and melting glaciers. Industrial production, modern cities and large-scale farming consume massive amounts of fossil fuels, turning concentrated resources into waste heat and carbon emissions. From a physics perspective, global warming and extreme weather represent the spread of excess thermal energy through the Earth&#39;s climate system. As greenhouse gases trap heat, the atmosphere and oceans absorb that energy, moving the planet toward a more chaotic and unstable thermal state. The physical decline of our environment is the large-scale result of rising entropy.

Given that human actions inevitably produce entropy and disorder, a logical question arises: Why should we care about sustainability, ethics and disciplined living if decay is guaranteed?

Researchers and thinkers across science and philosophy have explored this dilemma. In his book, Entropy: A New World View, economist Jeremy Rifkin argues that while total entropy always increases, human societies can choose how fast we use up natural resources, making a strong case for conservation. Similarly, Nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine showed that living things are open systems that survive by continuously taking in energy and releasing waste into their surroundings.

This scientific reality also connects with spiritual and philosophical views. For instance, the Islamic worldview teaches that the physical universe is finite and moving toward a destined cosmic conclusion. Rather than making human life meaningless, this shared understanding actually increases our moral responsibility. As seen in concepts of environmental stewardship, humans are meant to manage the Earth carefully. Literature and research suggest that we do not seek order to cheat the laws of physics, but to act with responsibility during our temporary time on Earth.

Ultimately, the clash between human discipline and universal entropy reveals the true meaning of our choices. The order we create through daily habits, green technology and environmental protection cannot reverse the laws of physics or stop the ultimate end of the universe. However, the inevitability of decay does not make our actions pointless. We organise our lives and protect nature not because we expect to live forever, but because choosing to create order and care for our world remains the most meaningful way to live.]]>
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			<title>Leverage has limits</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632661/leverage-has-limits</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632661/leverage-has-limits#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 26 22:18:29 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Dr Ikramul Haq]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
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			<description>
				<![CDATA[Oil mattered to the rise of the dollar system, but it never explained the whole system]]>
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				<![CDATA[A theory popular since 2012 said that Washington&#39;s hostility towards Iran was really about defending the &quot;petrodollar&quot;. Iraq sold oil in euros, Libya flirted with monetary alternatives, Iran sought non-dollar settlements - and punishment followed. Neat. Too neat.

Oil mattered to the rise of the dollar system, but it never explained the whole system. The dollar still accounted for 57.13% of disclosed global forex reserves in the first quarter of 2026, according to IMF.

The Federal Reserve points to deeper reasons: large and liquid financial markets, safe assets, convertibility, institutional credibility and network effects. Thus, the dollar is not about to disappear because some oil is paid for in yuan, rupees or roubles. The real issue is how monetary power is used.

When so much global finance touches American institutions, sanctions become exceptionally potent. That can be useful. It can also be overused. The more the US turns access to the dollar system into a geopolitical weapon, the more incentive others have to create alternatives.

That is why local-currency settlement, alternative payment channels and reserve diversification matter. They are not yet a replacement for the dollar. They are insurance against dependence on one centre of power.

The latest Middle Eastern development makes the point better than another BRICS declaration.

Saudi Arabia has asked China to help restrain Yemen&#39;s Iran-backed Houthis after their advance put greater pressure on shipping around Bab el-Mandeb. Beijing then pressed Tehran privately. China buys most of Iran&#39;s seaborne oil, but it also has huge commercial and energy interests in Saudi Arabia and the wider Gulf. That is political economy at work.

China does not need to replace the US militarily to become relevant diplomatically. Economic interdependence is giving it leverage across relationships that cut through old alignments. There is irony on every side.

Iran gains tactical leverage when its allies can threaten strategic sea lanes. However, disruption of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb also hurts China, the very power on which Tehran increasingly depends for oil sales and diplomatic space. Saudi Arabia remains deeply tied to the US for security, but it has turned to Beijing where Chinese economic influence may reach Tehran more effectively.

US retains overwhelming military and financial power. The war with Iran nevertheless remains unresolved more than six months after it began. That should provoke a harder question than whether the dollar is still number one. Iran is not an innocent party. Its regional proxies, missile capability and nuclear activities have created legitimate security concerns. Threatening commercial navigation imposes costs on countries with no part in the conflict. Nevertheless, policy must be judged by outcomes. Decades of sanctions, covert confrontation and now open war have not produced a durable political settlement.

The same test applies to American financial policy. Sanctions may hurt an adversary today while strengthening tomorrow&#39;s incentive to trade outside channels Washington controls. Military force may destroy installations while creating new forms of asymmetric resistance. Power works. The question is what it produces.

The US built post-war influence through not only aircraft carriers and sanctions. It also offered markets, institutions and assets that others wanted to. That was leadership because participation was substantially voluntary. Leverage is different. It rests on the cost of saying no.

A global order cannot be sustained indefinitely by making exit painful. Nor can Middle Eastern peace be built by ensuring that every adversary is permanently weaker, sanctioned or bombed.

The petrodollar theory got the mechanism wrong. Its deeper warning survives.

The danger to American primacy is not that the world suddenly abandons the dollar. It is that more states begin treating dependence on an American-centred system as a risk to be hedged.

China&#39;s role between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a small but telling sign. The future may not be post-American. It is already less exclusively American. Leverage can compel. Leadership persuades. The Middle East is showing why the distinction matters.]]>
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			<title>India's totalitarian panopticon</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632662/indias-totalitarian-panopticon</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632662/indias-totalitarian-panopticon#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 26 22:18:29 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Farrukh Khan Pitafi]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
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				<![CDATA[Her name is not unknown to those who covered the union government's response to the Covid crisis]]>
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				<![CDATA[Last week, when the story of the centralisation of electoral rolls in India and the arbitrary deletion of voters broke, the name of Dr Seema Khanna was propelled into the limelight. Today, as Director General of Information Technology at the Election Commission of India, she oversees ECINet, which journalist Ritika Chopra revealed centralises voter rolls and bypasses decentralised statutory officers.

Her name is not unknown to those who covered the union government&#39;s response to the Covid crisis. She oversaw the rapid development and deployment of Aarogya Setu. Deployed by executive decree without statutory safeguards, the tool harvested sensitive health records and mapped citizens&#39; private social networks. Critics warned that vacuuming up medical history and social interactions without privacy laws normalised permanent state surveillance under the cover of a public health crisis.

Of course, you can argue that this speaks to her competence. But as I keep reminding you, competence only compounds the severity of an offence. She cannot plead ignorance to rationalise locking out on-ground Electoral Registration Officers, preventing them from executing statutory duties.

I know, I know, the harvesting of health records and social context is an even graver issue. Consider the warning of UK judge Sir Nicolas Browne-Wilkinson in the 1992 Marcel case: &quot;If the information obtained by the police, the Inland Revenue, the social security offices, the health service and other agencies were to be gathered together in one file, the freedom of the individual would be gravely at risk. The dossier of private information is the badge of the totalitarian state.&quot;

The dossier of private information should worry any citizen in any given country. But weigh it against two compounding factors: In which country is this happening? And in which technological age is it happening?

Country first. Last week, when I showed you how Shudra identity is being systematically dissolved, it did not mean their names are already being purged from electoral rolls, nor that prejudice against them has vanished. Their overt targeting is simply deferred until after a Hindu Rashtra is consolidated. Like slow-boiling frogs, right now, they are led to believe that the rising temperature is meant exclusively for Muslims, minorities, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, an intoxicating illusion of &quot;Hindu consolidation&quot; that masks their own gradual erasure.

Yet, while the word &quot;Shudra&quot; has practically been scrubbed from polite public discourse, the ironclad mandate of endogamy has not. Open any newspaper matrimonial page and the obsession with wedding within one&#39;s varna stares back at you. When social prejudice cannot be sanctioned by law, it retreats into an unspoken shadow ledger of social rating. India is the textbook case. Consider how many instances of Pratiloma violence, inter-caste honour killings, are sanitised in police registers as random murders or suicides. Even though the constitutional state claims to view its citizens as equals, society does not. Use your imagination: what happens when such a dossier of private information is handed to a centralised state apparatus captured by an entrenched upper-caste elite?

Now consider the age. Only a decade ago, the Cambridge Analytica scandal revealed how mere social media breadcrumbs could be weaponised: first to build psychographic profiles of individual citizens, and then to push their psychological buttons to manipulate democratic outcomes. Technology has not stood still. It has accelerated exponentially since then.

Rukmini S&#39;s Whole Numbers and Half Truths reveals a terrifying reality: the ground-level data feeding this surveillance machine is inherently prejudiced. When police manipulate FIRs to classify inter-caste marriages as kidnappings, or municipal clerks miss rural deaths, they hardcode bias and incompetence into the system. Sucked into national registries, this flawed data is laundered into objective truth, weaponised by algorithms to deny welfare and profile citizens under an illusion of infallibility.

The rollout of the surveillance state started ostensibly with great innocence in 2009 when the Unique Identification Authority of India, led by Nandan Nilekani, introduced Aadhaar. Stated as a benevolent tool to plug welfare leakages, it instead created the master architectural key. Tethering biological markers (facial photograph, scans of both irises and ten fingerprints) to a twelve-digit number stripped citizens of anonymity, anchoring all future dossiers.

By 2013, the intellectual engine room moved to Bengaluru with the formation of the Indian Software Product Industry Round Table, or iSPIRT, co-founded by Sharad Sharma. This think tank engineered the India Stack. Where Silicon Valley pioneered surveillance capitalism for advertising, Bengaluru adapted these tools into surveillance statecraft, building the plumbing to monitor, categorise and manage a population.

Between 2014 and 2015, the vision accelerated through the Jan Dhan, Aadhaar and Mobile trinity. Sold for direct benefit transfers, JAM served as a digital enclosure, soldering biological identity, communication trails and banking ledgers. The sledgehammer of 2016 followed. Demonetisation corralled the cash economy onto digital rails, paving the way for the Unified Payments Interface. UPI eliminated the privacy of the informal bazaar, logging transactions to map financial behaviour in real time.

Between 2017 and 2019, the architecture leapt to algorithmic governance. Using Telangana&#39;s Samagra Vedika as a testing ground, algorithms fused isolated departmental databases into a single predictive profile without citizen consent. This laid the foundation for the National Social Registry, a 360-degree database tracking every life event, resulting in algorithms silently cancelling pensions.

The 2020 Covid crisis justified completing the biological ledger through Aarogya Setu, developed by the National Informatics Centre with Dr Seema Khanna overseeing operations. Evolving into the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission, it converted a temporary epidemic response into permanent biological surveillance.

Now consider this. Nandan Nilekani and Sharad Sharma are Brahmin. Seema Khanna a Khatri. All movers and shakers of iSPIRT belong to the upper castes. The totalitarian state&#39;s panopticon is ready and actively being deployed. How it is used after safeguards of a secular state and constitution are removed does not require much imagination.

This raises a final question about Western media, international wire services, search engines and news aggregators. They never tire of spotlighting Chinese security measures, yet this story rarely reaches your screens. We will need another piece to explore exactly why. Stay tuned.]]>
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			<title>IWT in spotlight</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632810/iwt-in-spotlight</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632810/iwt-in-spotlight#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sat, 03 Oct 26 19:24:27 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2632810</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Breach of a major international covenant demands a global response]]>
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				<![CDATA[India finds itself isolated internationally over its handling of transboundary water politics. Legal experts, diplomats and environmentalists have strongly condemned New Delhi&#39;s unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). At the ongoing UN Human Rights Council session in Geneva, officials have warned that weaponising water threatens the food security and livelihoods of millions across the region. Pakistan, the lower riparian state, bears the brunt of this policy as India attempts to assert regional dominance and bypass global accountability.

The panel at Geneva made vital observations regarding the indispensable reliance of populations dependent on the Indus Basin. By directly linking water governance to human rights, it underscored that transboundary agreements must not become optional when bilateral relations deteriorate. This is a foundational principle of international jurisprudence. Accordingly, the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in Pakistan&#39;s favour, holding that the IWT remains fully in force despite India&#39;s unilateral decision to hold it in abeyance. Furthermore, as a procedural guarantor to the landmark 1960 accord, the World Bank has viewed actions altering the treaty framework as ultra vires breach of international law. Thus, weaponising water to this degree amounts to environmental and water terrorism.

This breach of a major international covenant demands a global response, as it is no longer just a bilateral issue for Pakistan. India&#39;s disregard for transboundary water governance violates state-centric norms and forces a lower riparian neighbour into an existential crisis. At a time when environmental degeneration is accelerating, such volatile policies act as a catalyst for climate change, crippling agricultural production and disrupting critical energy grids. India&#39;s determination to construct massive hydroelectric dams in occupied Jammu &amp; Kashmir and its mainland systematically steals Pakistan&#39;s lawful water share. The world must unite to issue a firm dictum against New Delhi, prioritising human life and legal accountability over regional hegemony.]]>
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			<title>A surging insurgency</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632811/a-surging-insurgency</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632811/a-surging-insurgency#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sat, 03 Oct 26 19:24:27 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2632811</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Epicentre of this deterioration is Balochistan, where fatalities increased over threefold from 265 to 829]]>
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				<![CDATA[A worrying new report on the security situation in the country includes the grim statistic that there was an 83% surge in violence-linked fatalities during the third quarter of 2026, with 1,415 deaths recorded across 385 incidents. This sharp escalation in violence described in the Centre for Research and Security Studies quarterly security report shows that the declining trend witnessed in the first half of the year is a distant memory. In fact, the spike in violence is also the highest quarter-on-quarter increase since 2021.

The epicentre of this deterioration is Balochistan, where fatalities increased over threefold from 265 to 829, accounting for 88% of the national increase. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, which has its own torrid history with terrorism, was second-worst, recording 186 violent incidents, which in terms of quantity - ignoring fatalities - represents 48% of all attacks in the country. The TTP, which is behind most of the attacks in K-P, was also the primary threat, being linked with 13 attacks that killed 117 people, while the BLA and Hafiz Gul Bahadur group also caused significant casualties. While almost two-thirds of the casualties were &quot;outlaws&quot;, the raw numbers of civilians and security forces martyred rose by 36% and 79%, respectively, or 54% overall. The year-to-date death toll for security forces has also crossed 1,000, making the first three-quarters of 2026 the deadliest such period ever.

The UNSC has condemned the surge in militant attacks, but no amount of condemnation will stop the violence. What is needed is concrete action targeting the governments of Afghanistan and India - which fund some of the terrorist groups and provide them with logistics and shelter - and material support for our security apparatus. At the same time, the government must do more to address the root causes of separatist sentiments, instead of just blaming outside forces. If young people felt their government was providing opportunities, they would not feel alienated or susceptible to the appeal of anti-Pakistan groups, which may offer them kinship and income.]]>
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			<title>Mental health commitments</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632812/mental-health-commitments</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632812/mental-health-commitments#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sat, 03 Oct 26 19:24:27 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2632812</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Pakistan has roughly 0.19 psychiatrists for every 100,000 people]]>
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				<![CDATA[Pakistan&#39;s Global Mental Health Summit has ended with an ambitious promise to move mental healthcare out of the margins of public policy. The Islamabad Declaration commits the country to better coordination, sustainable financing, community-based care and, importantly, accountable implementation. These are sensible commitments. Their value, however, will depend on what happens after the conference halls have emptied.

The scale of the challenge leaves little room for another policy that exists largely on paper. Around 32.4 million Pakistanis are estimated to require mental-health care, while the treatment gap is about 95%. Pakistan has roughly 0.19 psychiatrists for every 100,000 people. For a population of this size, specialist treatment alone can never provide the answer. This makes the National Mental Health Policy 2026-35, launched at the summit, potentially important. Its emphasis on integrating mental-health services into primary healthcare, schools and communities recognises that people cannot be expected to travel to major urban hospitals every time they require psychological support. Care has to become available much closer to where people reside. The federal government has also asked the provinces and federating areas to endorse the policy within 45 days and has promised a costed, time-bound implementation and monitoring plan within 12 months. This is where the declaration must begin turning into a health-system reform programme. Since healthcare delivery rests substantially with the provinces, national ambition will accomplish little without provincial budgets and measurable targets. Pakistan will need more specialists, but it must also build capacity among general physicians, nurses and community health workers.

The next 12 months must establish who will deliver services, how they will be financed and how progress will be measured. For millions currently outside the mental-health system, implementation is not the final stage of the policy. It is the part that matters most.]]>
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			<title>Surging Houthis</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632658/surging-houthis</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632658/surging-houthis#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 26 22:18:29 +0500</pubDate>
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				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
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			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
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				<![CDATA[Escalation on the part of the Houthis is uncalled for]]>
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				<![CDATA[Despite hopes for a thaw amid the widening Middle East conflict, the Houthis&#39; surge is acting as a spanner in the works. Reports that the pro-Iran Yemeni militia launched drone attacks on an electricity facility in the holy city of Medina have taken the Muslim world by surprise, pushing the regional security paradigm to the edge. Likewise, unconfirmed reports indicate that American authorities are investigating potential Iranian links to a thwarted midair insider attack on a Flydubai airliner en route to Tel Aviv. This, too, has upped the ante, with US warning of a severe backlash against Iran. Finally, an unannounced, lethal conflict between Yemeni state security forces and the Houthis is hampering navigation across the strategic Bab-el-Mandeb waterway, escalating Saudi Arabia&#39;s security risks to unprecedented heights.

This escalation on the part of the Houthis is uncalled for. The non-state actor is unnecessarily expanding the orbit of war, inviting retribution with dire consequences for the entire region. Loud explosions were also heard in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, which is controlled by Houthi forces. This indicates that the Iranians, too, are engaged in a power struggle, using proxies as leverage for realpolitik. Furthermore, the prospective withdrawal of US troops from Iraq and Syria, paired with Washington&#39;s positioning as an ally of Saudi Arabia, represents a new twist in regional dynamics. Moreover, the US deployment of additional Patriot missile batteries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar and the Pentagon signing a massive contract for the production of SM-6 missiles are clear signs of broadening warfare.

The million-dollar question is: where are statecraft and diplomacy? Why do they take a backseat every second day? Why are the Pentagon and the IRGC so obsessed with warmongering while their respective diplomatic echelons strive for a thaw in all sincerity? It is a fact that non-state actors are a reality in the Middle East power dynamics, but the Houthis are going over the brink as spoilers. Tehran has a responsibility to prevail over the Houthis and ensure that Saudi Arabia&#39;s territorial integrity is not breached.]]>
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			<title>Modern Tech Leadership: Building Systems That Scale</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2545646/modern-tech-leadership-building-systems-that-scale</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2545646/modern-tech-leadership-building-systems-that-scale#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Tue, 13 May 25 18:54:31 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Shaukat Ali Khan]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2545646</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[The author is Advisor to the President, Aga Khan University.]]>
			</description>
			<content:encoded>
				<![CDATA[In the crucible of modern technology leadership, where AI advancements outpace human adaptation and market shifts occur in real time, a new paradigm has emerged. The most effective tech leaders no longer rely on individual brilliance alone; they architect organizational systems that transform pressure into performance.

Recent data reveals a troubling reality: 61% of tech executives report unsustainable stress levels (Harvard Business Review), while leadership fatigue costs the industry $300 billion annually in lost productivity (Deloitte). These numbers underscore a fundamental truth &mdash; the challenges of tech leadership have evolved beyond what any individual can manage through sheer willpower.

The unique pressures facing tech leaders manifest in three critical dimensions. Decision-making occurs against a backdrop of exponential data growth, with IDC reporting that global data volumes double every two years &mdash; a reality that leaves 49% of tech leaders experiencing decision paralysis (MIT Sloan). Alignment becomes increasingly fragile in distributed engineering teams, where Gallup finds only 28% of technologists feel deeply connected to their company&#39;s mission. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization documents a 35% surge in leadership burnout since 2020, particularly acute in the tech sector&rsquo;s always-on culture.

What separates thriving tech leaders from those who merely survive? The answer lies in systematic approaches to five fundamental pillars of leadership. Vision in technology organizations must be both aspirational and adaptable. McKinsey research confirms that tech companies with dynamic, clearly articulated visions grow 1.5 times faster than competitors. Microsoft&rsquo;s transformation under Satya Nadella exemplifies this principle, where reframing the company&rsquo;s mission around empowerment rather than devices catalyzed a trillion-dollar market cap surge while increasing engineering team alignment by 32% (Harvard Business Review).

Transparency serves as the operating system for modern tech organizations. In an industry where Gartner reports 70% of technical initiatives fail to meet objectives, Gallup data shows that teams with transparent leaders demonstrate 3.5 times higher engagement. This principle manifests in radical openness &mdash; from GitLab&rsquo;s 6,000-page public handbook to Datadog&rsquo;s transparent incident postmortems &mdash; practices that Aberdeen Group links to 47% higher shareholder returns in tech companies.

The velocity of technological change demands unprecedented decisiveness. Stanford research indicates that hesitation costs tech firms 30% in lost innovation speed, while Bain &amp; Company data reveals that leaders who make critical decisions within 48 hours of receiving data drive 40% faster growth. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang&rsquo;s 2006 bet on CUDA architecture, made against prevailing wisdom, demonstrates how such decisive leadership builds enduring competitive advantage in the AI era.

Resilience in tech leadership requires more than personal fortitude &mdash; it demands institutionalized systems for recovery. The Journal of Applied Psychology documents that resilient tech leaders drive 25% more innovation output, with MIT research showing 82% attribute their success to structured problem-solving frameworks rather than individual heroics. Apple&rsquo;s resurgence under Steve Jobs emerged not from charismatic leadership alone, but from implementing ruthless product prioritization systems that transformed a billion-dollar loss into a $350 billion valuation.

Stakeholder trust functions as technical debt for tech leaders &mdash; it compounds quietly but determines long-term viability. PwC&rsquo;s CEO Survey finds 85% of tech leaders directly link trust to valuation, a connection exemplified by AMD&rsquo;s Lisa Su, who rebuilt investor confidence through transparent technology roadmaps after near collapse. Edelman data confirms that tech companies maintaining high stakeholder trust achieve 2.5 times greater revenue growth during market fluctuations.

The most forward-thinking tech leaders recognize that sustainable success emerges from systems rather than individual brilliance. Harvard research demonstrates that structured decision frameworks reduce deliberation time by 50% &mdash; critical when AI models can obsolete strategies overnight. McKinsey findings show that teams with clear systems adapt 60% faster to disruptions like API deprecations or supply chain shocks. Even failures become accelerants when properly analysed. Stanford studies reveal that tech organizations conducting rigorous postmortems improve 30% faster after setbacks.

This new leadership calculus represents a fundamental shift in how tech organizations scale. The most effective leaders don&rsquo;t simply make better decisions &mdash; they build better decision-making systems. They don&rsquo;t just communicate; they engineer transparency into their organizational DNA. They recognize that in an era of continuous deployment and real-time market shifts, sustainable leadership comes not from being the smartest engineer in the room, but from creating environments where every engineer can perform at their best. As artificial intelligence reshapes the technological landscape, this systematic approach to leadership may prove to be the ultimate competitive advantage.

The data leaves little room for debate &mdash; the future belongs to tech leaders who architect organizations as thoughtfully as they design systems. In doing so, they transform the overwhelming complexity of modern technology leadership from a crisis to be managed into a competitive edge to be leveraged. The organizations that embrace this paradigm won&rsquo;t just survive the coming waves of disruption &mdash; they&rsquo;ll define them.]]>
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			<title>Hurdles in materialization of GCC’s economic ventures in Pakistan</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517229/hurdles-in-materialization-of-gccs-economic-ventures-in-pakistan</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517229/hurdles-in-materialization-of-gccs-economic-ventures-in-pakistan#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 20 Dec 24 05:55:06 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Syed Ahmed Ali]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2517229</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Pakistan must boost economic productivity to enhance trade ties with GCC countries and ensure sustainable growth.]]>
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				<![CDATA[The organization of the Gulf Cooperation Council was formed in 1981 which consists of six states: Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. The Gulf region is one of the most resource-rich areas namely crude oil and gas. In recent years the GCC countries have reduced their dependency on energy trade and promoted economic diversification. To pursue their economic diversification initiative, GCC countries have engaged in cooperation with other regions such as South Asia, which offers key resources and technical expertise. Pakistan being a member state of the South Asian region, stands at the crossroads to either connect itself with external regions such as the Middle East or risk economic isolation.

Huma Yusuf in an article titled &ldquo;Wide Gulf&rdquo; analyzed the GCC approach to the South Asian region, which seems to develop economic relations with India while maintaining military cooperation with Pakistan on specific security issues alongside occasional economic packages to aid Pakistan&rsquo;s ailing economy. Pakistan&rsquo;s GCC policy prioritizes political and security issues over developing economic relations. As noted by Shashank Joshi, Pakistan&rsquo;s relations with Arab states seem to be military-centric. As a consequence, Pakistan&#39;s economy suffers from a lack of a conducive environment for economic productivity and regional integration.

Pakistan&#39;s economic cooperation with GCC states while still in its infancy does touch some important sectors which need to be explored. The most important sector between Pakistan and the GCC economic relations is the energy trade. In July 2023, Saudi Arabia announced that it would invest 10 billion dollars in Gwadar, Balochistan to construct an oil refinery, which would help with GCC energy exports in the South Asian region. In the same year, the UAE signed a memorandum (MoU) for the possibility of developing renewable energy in Pakistan. In 2016 Qatar became a major supplier of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to Pakistan through its LNG terminal agreement which was worth 15 billion dollars for a 15-year supply.

Apart from helping the energy sector, the GCC has also helped develop the Infrastructure of Pakistan, particularly in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. On the 22nd of October 2022, Saudi Arabia agreed to fund infrastructure projects in Neelum Valley and Muzaffarabad worth 30 billion rupees as a part of its Saudi Fund for Development (SFD). The SFD is a Saudi government assistance program that helps provide financial assistance to developing countries. Apart from providing financial aid to governmental projects, the GCC is a major investor in the real estate business in Pakistan. In 2013 Malik Riaz of the Bahria Group and Sheikh Nahyan of the Abu Dhabi Group invested 45 billion dollars in Pakistan&rsquo;s real estate industry, where they invested 10 billion dollars in Lahore and 35 billion in Karachi.

Apart from the real estate industry, the GCC countries have made a significant impact on various sectors of Pakistan&rsquo;s economy. In 2009 the Saudi government leased 500,000 acres of agricultural land from Pakistan to grow wheat as a means to ensure Saudi food security. Apart from the agricultural industry, the GCC supports Pakistani manufacturing by importing construction materials like cement. In 2004 Pakistan received a demand for cement of about 2000 tons per week from the UAE, which was supplied by Lucky Cement, DG Khan, and Attock In the field of fertilizer production Saudi Companies like SABIC have invested in Pakistan&rsquo;s fertilizer manufacturing through National Chemical Fertilizer Company (NFC).

The investments and economic aid provided by the GCC to Pakistan are channeled through joint cooperation organizations. One such organization is the UAE-Pakistan Assistance Program (UAE-PAP) which provided 200 million dollars of economic aid to Pakistan in May 2018. The objective of this funding was to provide humanitarian assistance to the vulnerable people in Pakistan. More recently, the Saudi-Pakistan Investment Conference announced a 20 billion investment, which covered diverse areas including energy, agriculture, and the environment.

Pakistan GCC trade relations are import intensive, where Gulf investors look to attract Pakistani investment in real estate, export their energy industry, and lease agricultural lands. In 2016 the trade deficit between Pakistan and GCC countries was 1.1 billion dollars, this increased to 1.3 billion dollars in 2020. The trade relationship between GCC and Pakistan is driven by rising imports and the depreciation of the Pakistani rupee which leads to the depletion of Pakistan&rsquo;s foreign exchange reserves. This vicious cycle of rising import costs and increasing foreign debt can only be mitigated through boosting economic productivity which is essential to have a long-lasting sustainable trade relationship with the GCC.

Pakistan faces significant challenges in its governance system to boost its economic productivity. Pakistan historically has inconsistency in its policy-making owing to political instability and frequent change in governments. Pakistan lacks a shared framework of economic policies shared by all stakeholders, which often leads to disruption of the previous policies initiated by the previous government. To make matters worse Pakistan&#39;s administration system suffers from red-tapism, where bureaucratic delays and complicated forms make it difficult for potential investors to invest.

Pakistan faces an acute energy crisis, where the cost of energy makes the cost of doing business too high. This leads to industrial regression where many investors look to set up their production plants where the energy costs are low. The use of renewable energy resources such as hydroelectric power plants can help reduce the cost of energy production. Solar panel technology for localized energy production is ideal in remote areas lacking grid connectivity. Energy costs can be reduced by using localized source fuels, such as Thar coal which is a cheaper alternative than foreign imported coal.

Pakistan needs export diversification, where the government needs to encourage the growth of new industrial sectors such as IT and the pharmaceutical industry. These industries produce greater value-added products which have a greater value meaning a greater inflow of foreign currency. Pakistan can help the growth of these new industrial sectors by providing export incentives such as reducing taxes on export industries. The government can also provide technical training services to help improve labor productivity.

Through these measures, Pakistan can improve its economic productivity and increase its foreign exchange currency reserves, which is important to build a more sustainable and long-lasting trade partnership with GCC countries. Such trade relations will help Pakistan&rsquo;s economy to grow and build stronger cooperation with the Gulf region.

The writer is an analyst on Middle East and South Asia]]>
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			<title>Schrödinger’s Cat and Pakistan’s Economy: Alive, dead, or both?</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517054/schrodingers-cat-and-pakistans-economy-alive-dead-or-both</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517054/schrodingers-cat-and-pakistans-economy-alive-dead-or-both#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Thu, 19 Dec 24 10:18:40 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Dr Aneel Salman]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2517054</guid>
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				<![CDATA[Pakistan’s economy is in flux, showing signs of life but facing challenges that keep it uncertain.]]>
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				<![CDATA[Imagine a cat in a sealed box, both alive and dead at the same time&mdash;Schr&ouml;dinger&rsquo;s famous thought experiment in quantum mechanics. Now replace the cat with Pakistan&rsquo;s economy, and you have a paradox that would make even Erwin Schr&ouml;dinger scratch his head.

Is Pakistan&rsquo;s economy thriving, or is it a mirage of temporary improvements? Like the metaphorical box, the truth only reveals itself once we look deeper. On the surface, Pakistan&rsquo;s economy seems to be showing signs of life. Inflation, which was roaring just months ago, has started to ease, particularly in food prices.

In November 2024, inflation dropped sharply to 4.9%, down from over 30% in 2023, providing relief to households that have struggled with sky-high grocery bills.
From a broader perspective, fiscal and external accounts appear to be turning a corner. The government&rsquo;s disciplined spending has led to a primary surplus, a feat that many developing economies struggle to achieve.

The current account has posted a surplus for three consecutive months, indicating improved external balances. Foreign exchange reserves have crossed $12 billion for the first time in over two years, reaching $12.04 billion in November 2024, reducing immediate fears of default.
There&rsquo;s even talk of Pakistan re-entering the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which could bring much-needed foreign portfolio investments.

The stock market has responded with renewed enthusiasm, with the benchmark share index hitting a lifetime high following the IMF&rsquo;s approval of a $7 billion bailout deal.
Corporate Pakistan, despite the recent turmoil, is cautiously optimistic. Banks have reported soaring profits, with some of the highest returns in Asia, due to high-interest rates and increased government borrowing.

The technology sector has attracted international venture capital, signalling confidence in the country&rsquo;s young talent pool. Agricultural reforms, including better irrigation and the introduction of high-yield seeds, are starting to pay off. In the FMCG sector, multinationals are reporting growth as consumer demand begins to recover. Meanwhile, automotive assemblers and manufacturers are ramping up production after a prolonged slump.

But here&rsquo;s the twist: Schr&ouml;dinger&rsquo;s cat is still in the box. Is this economic revival genuinely sustainable, or is it a temporary high? Much of the current stability hinges on policy measures that are inherently short-term. Import restrictions and remittance inflows have propped up reserves, but what happens when those restrictions are lifted? Is the economy fundamentally stronger, or are we just seeing a Band-Aid over a deep wound?

Debt remains the elephant&mdash;or perhaps the tiger&mdash;in the room. Pakistan&rsquo;s external debt obligations are massive, requiring substantial foreign exchange outflows. Without consistent export growth or foreign direct investment (FDI), the current account surplus could quickly vanish. The energy sector, despite progress in renewable projects, still struggles with circular debt and over-reliance on imported fuels, making it vulnerable to global shocks.

And let&rsquo;s not forget the perpetual wild card: politics. Policy consistency and investor confidence often take a backseat to political turmoil. In a country where ministers change faster than seasons, long-term economic planning is easier said than done.

So, what&rsquo;s the way forward for Pakistan&rsquo;s Schr&ouml;dinger economy? To truly open the box and find a thriving economy inside, Pakistan must shift from firefighting to systemic reform. Exports need to diversify beyond textiles&mdash;IT services, for instance, hold enormous untapped potential. Investment in renewable energy and domestic resources can reduce the dependency on volatile global fuel markets.
The tax system needs a complete overhaul.

Broadening the tax base by formalizing the informal economy is crucial. Digitization of tax processes has started, but enforcement and trust-building with businesses remain key. Regional trade offers another lifeline. Strengthening trade with Afghanistan, Central Asia, and even India could open up new economic corridors and stabilize supply chains.

Pakistan must also tackle inefficiencies in state-owned enterprises, which continue to bleed the exchequer. Privatization or restructuring, though politically sensitive, could reduce fiscal drag. Finally, political and institutional stability cannot be overstated. A consistent policy framework and good governance are critical to unlocking the country&rsquo;s potential.

As of now, Pakistan&rsquo;s economy remains in a superposition&mdash;alive, dead, or somewhere in between. The current signs are hopeful, but as any physicist&mdash;or economist&mdash;would tell you, the true state only reveals itself with time, data, and bold action. Until then, Schr&ouml;dinger&rsquo;s cat, or rather Pakistan&rsquo;s economy, keeps us guessing.

&nbsp;]]>
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			<title>Breaking free from inertia</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2573191/breaking-free-from-inertia</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2573191/breaking-free-from-inertia#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sun, 19 Oct 25 19:19:25 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Nadeem Javaid]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2573191</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Pakistan finds itself unable to prosper]]>
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				<![CDATA[Pakistan once stood at the edge of promise - a young nation alive with ambition, industry, and the dream of joining Asia&#39;s rising tigers. But somewhere along the way, that energy dimmed. Growth lost its rhythm, and progress began to circle instead of climb. The country now finds itself caught in what economists call the Middle-Income Trap &mdash; a place where nations rise above abject poverty but fail to reach prosperity. In this zone, costs rise faster than productivity, innovation stalls, and ambition outpaces capacity. Pakistan, once a symbol of potential, risks becoming an example of inertia &mdash; not poor enough for aid, yet not strong enough to compete.

The trap captures countries that grow through low-wage manufacturing and basic exports but stumble when wages rise, and productivity fails to keep pace. Argentina, Brazil and Thailand have struggled in this space for decades. Pakistan&#39;s case is similar: an economy that moves, but no longer moves forward.

Take exports. Pakistan&#39;s total exports stood around $32 billion, barely changed in years. By contrast, Vietnam&#39;s exports crossed $354 billion, despite both economies starting at similar levels two decades ago. While Bangladesh and Vietnam diversified into electronics, garments and machinery, Pakistan remains locked into low-value textiles and primary commodities. Its inability to upgrade the export base has kept the external sector stagnant and vulnerable.

Human capital tells a similar story. Pakistan spends barely 1.5 per cent of GDP on education - among the lowest in Asia. Millions of children remain out of school, and even university graduates often lack market-relevant skills. Without investment in people, productivity cannot grow - and without productivity, prosperity cannot follow.

Institutional fragility compounds the problem. Every few years, the cycle repeats - IMF bailouts, currency shocks and short-term fiscal fixes. Political volatility and administrative discontinuity have turned policymaking into crisis management. Investors, both domestic and foreign, hesitate in such an environment. High interest rates, arbitrary taxation and poor contract enforcement have produced what might be called a &quot;fear economy&quot; - one where capital hides instead of builds, and risk-taking gives way to risk-avoidance.

Meanwhile, the informal sector dominates. More than 70 per cent of Pakistan&#39;s workforce operates outside formal structures - underpaid, unprotected and untaxed. This keeps productivity low and deprives the state of much-needed revenue. Weak public investment in infrastructure and services then reinforces the cycle of low growth and inequality.

But the most subtle trap is psychological. A comfortable middle class has learned to live with stagnation. Malls expand, cars multiply and consumption thrives, but innovation languishes. Too many seek safety in government jobs or overseas remittances, while too few take the risks that fuel enterprise. It is this quiet acceptance of &quot;just enough&quot; that makes inertia so powerful - and so dangerous.

History, however, offers a way out. South Korea in the 1960s was poorer than Pakistan but climbed out of poverty through export discipline, industrial upgrading and massive investment in education. China transformed from low-end assembly to global technology leadership through long-term planning and institutional focus. Malaysia avoided the trap by building a diversified, knowledge-based economy anchored in policy continuity and political stability. None of these transitions happened overnight; each demanded decades of consistent reform and national purpose.

For Pakistan, breaking free from inertia requires a similar commitment - not cosmetic fixes, but foundational change.

First, invest in people. Raise education and skills spending to at least 45 per cent of GDP. Focus on digital literacy, STEM education and vocational training through public-private partnerships that connect learning with livelihoods.

Second, reform the tax system. Agriculture, real estate and retail must enter the tax net. Simplify compliance through technology and transparency, broaden the base, and reduce distortions that punish the formal sector.

Third, empower cities. Urban centres generate nearly 80 per cent of GDP yet remain fiscally suffocated. Devolving authority to local governments, simplifying business licensing, and expanding microfinance - especially for women - can unleash immense productive potential.

Fourth, separate economic governance from political turbulence. The National Economic Council should guide long-term policy insulated from election cycles, ensuring continuity and coherence.

Fifth, engage the diaspora as partners, not just remitters. Pakistan&#39;s nine million overseas citizens can drive entrepreneurship, investment and technology transfer - injecting new ideas and capital into the economy.

Finally, open markets and ensure fair competition. Decades of protectionism and rent-seeking have entrenched inefficiency. Phasing out distortive subsidies, arbitrary tariffs and discretionary powers would reward productivity and innovation rather than privilege and influence.

Breaking free from inertia is more than an economic task - it is a national awakening. It means replacing short-term fixes with long-term vision, dependency with creativity, and fear with confidence. Pakistan cannot grow by surviving; it must thrive by transforming.

The choice is simple yet profound: remain comfortable in stagnation or embrace the hard climb toward renewal. The Middle-Income Trap is not an inevitability; it&#39;s a choice: to reform or to resign to mediocrity. The real trap isn&#39;t income; it&#39;s inertia. And only courage, consistency and commitment can break it.

The next generation of Pakistanis deserves more than survival. They deserve momentum - born of bold, consistent action, and the courage to leap forward rather than limp in circles.

The writer is the Vice Chancellor of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) and Member at Planning Commission of Pakistan]]>
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			<title>Disaster, destiny and our responsibility</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2564513/disaster-destiny-and-our-responsibility</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2564513/disaster-destiny-and-our-responsibility#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Mon, 01 Sep 25 20:46:59 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[M Zeb Khan]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2564513</guid>
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				<![CDATA[The problem in Pakistan is not belief in destiny itself, but its misinterpretation]]>
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				<![CDATA[When a tragedy strikes in Pakistan, the most common reaction is: &quot;It was God&#39;s will.&quot; This simple phrase has profound power and implications. It helps people cope with unbearable grief, cushions them from prolonged trauma, and provides a collective psychological framework in which loss is given meaning. In a society where faith is deeply woven into daily life, belief in destiny is not just theology - it is therapy.

But beneath this comfort lies a danger. By placing disasters solely in the realm of fate, we risk absolving ourselves of responsibility. Fatalism, when misapplied, can slide from a spiritual solace into a culture of complacency. Instead of asking hard questions about preventable causes, we retreat into resignation. Disasters become not moments of accountability but acts of destiny.

Consider floods. It is true that global climate change has placed Pakistan among the most vulnerable nations on the planet. These global forces are outside our immediate control. Yet, the devastation that follows each season of heavy rains is not a simple natural occurrence. It is compounded, amplified, and often manufactured by local realities.

Overpopulation has pushed communities into flood-prone areas, often along riverbanks where survival is precarious. Unplanned urban sprawl has overwhelmed fragile drainage systems. Deforestation in the north has stripped away natural barriers against floods and landslides. Poorly constructed homes collapse at the first touch of water, while weak infrastructure - roads, bridges and embankments - crumbles under pressure. Corruption and short-term politics mean that dams and canals remain mismanaged, and flood-prevention plans gather dust.

The same logic applies to other calamities. Road accidents are too easily accepted as &quot;God&#39;s will&quot;. But many stem from reckless driving, poorly enforced traffic rules, or vehicles unfit for the road. Factory fires, often deadly, are not acts of destiny but the result of absent safety standards and greed-driven shortcuts. Even terrorism, while politically complex, thrives when security lapses and governance failures create fertile ground. In each case, responsibility disappears behind the shield of fate.

Ironically, this is not what Islam teaches. The Qur&#39;an consistently calls for both reliance on God (tawakkul) and accountability for human action. &quot;Indeed, Allah does not change the condition of a people until they change what is in themselves&quot; (13:11). Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) famously advised a man to tie his camel before trusting in God&#39;s protection. The message is clear: trust in divine decree must go hand in hand with human responsibility. To rely on fate without effort is not faith - it is negligence.

The problem in Pakistan is not belief in destiny itself, but its misinterpretation. Instead of a balanced philosophy that combines spiritual acceptance with worldly responsibility, destiny has been reduced to an excuse. It allows individuals, communities and governments to evade accountability. It transforms what should be moments of collective learning into cycles of repeated tragedy.

The way forward requires a shift in mindset. Disasters must be understood not only as divine tests but as opportunities for reform. When floods strike, the question should not only be, &quot;Why us?&quot; but also, &quot;What must we change?&quot; When accidents occur, the response should not end at grief but extend to improving safety and enforcing laws. When violence erupts, society must hold accountable not only the perpetrators but also the structures that allowed it.

Pakistan cannot afford to treat destiny as a shield against responsibility. The Qur&#39;anic vision of humans as khalifa - stewards of the earth - places upon us a duty of care. This stewardship means planting trees instead of cutting them, enforcing safety standards instead of ignoring them, building resilient infrastructure instead of cheap structures, and investing in disaster preparedness rather than leaving everything to chance.

Disasters will always come. Climate change will make them more frequent, urbanisation will make them more complex, and global politics will make them more unpredictable. But whether they destroy us or strengthen us will depend less on destiny and more on the choices we make.]]>
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			<title>Gaza war - winning and losing</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2572800/gaza-war-winning-and-losing</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2572800/gaza-war-winning-and-losing#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Thu, 16 Oct 25 19:25:22 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Aneela Shahzad]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2572800</guid>
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				<![CDATA[The truth behind global politics is often obscured by power plays and egos, leaving the innocent to suffer]]>
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				<![CDATA[The upright never defeat evil, but they pretty much expose it. But evil, when exposed, even when drenched in ignominy, raises itself from its lewd bottomness, with the power of its dishonesty and deviousness, to heights of vainglory and fanfare - so that the distance between brazen tyranny and honourable virtue is so great that it is virtually unbridgeable.

This is not new; it is a repeated history. Over 3,000 years back, when Moses brought God&#39;s message, asking the Pharaoh to stop tyranny upon his people and give them their freedom; and proved his truth with the miracle of the staff - what did Pharaoh and his chieftains do with all the miracles? Even when their consciences were telling them that Moses had brought the truth, their self-interests, their gluttony and their rapacity forced them to turn over their inners voices and unite upon the evil that ensures them their worldly luxuries.

&#39;So, they disputed, one with another, over their affair, but they kept secret their whispers. They said: These two are magicians: their object is to drive you out from your land with their magic, and to do away with your most exemplary ways. So, put together your plan, and then assemble in ranks: He wins today who gains the upper hand,&#39; (TaHa;62-64).

Three lines from the Quran give a complete anatomy of the psychology in play. If you are for the overkill, the lavish overabundance, the excess powers, you suppress your morality. You malign the righteous as criminals, terrorist and &#39;magicians&#39;. And you unite with all the powerful, resourceful elites, ensure one another of the exemplary &#39;way of life&#39; and regimes you have, and put your plans together. And then you tell each other that you just need to win the moment - meaning that if you are able to show the people that your sorcerers are abler than the two brothers, the people will willfully accept your power.

Now, 3,000 years later, imagine Pharaoh&#39;s court and his chieftains, and imagine Sharm as Sheikh! And just imagine for yourself, who is the Pharaoh, who are the chieftains, who are the ones who aggrandise their tyranny as true power, and who are the sorcerers that make the people of the world believe that peace has been brought to war-torn Gaza!

Humanity looks with bewildered eyes - on Monday there was a ceasefire. On Tuesday, Israel shot down five more Gazans. On Monday, UN Undersecretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher was excited about the humanitarian scale-up; on Tuesday, he said the organisation faced &quot;further setbacks to the implementation&quot;. On Monday, President Trump was hailed for the Gaza Plan; on Tuesday, he was threatening to disarm Hamas &quot;violently&quot;. And on Wednesday, Centcom chief Brad Cooper was calling upon Hamas to &quot;immediately suspend violence and shooting at innocent Palestinian civilians in Gaza&quot;, both in Hamas-controlled areas and behind the so-called yellow line where Israeli troops are stationed. What was the peace deal then, if there was any?

The truth is that humanity was not told anything about the deal or what had been agreed to. On the face of it, it seems that Hamas was forced to hand over its only leverage, the hostages, in return for empty promises that most of us don&#39;t believe in. Was it a deal for letting Netanyahu go scot-free from all his court cases then, and let the Israelis pretend they have won? Was it just a prop-up to satisfy Trump&#39;s ego after he lost the Nobel peace prize? Was it a move to put a quiet on the Gaza front so that a full attack on Iran could be prepared for? Or was it just a commonplace sorcery, to stupefy humanity, while the genocide goes on in full? Or, was it a game of the survival for leaders, who want legitimacy in the eyes of their people, and who don&#39;t actually want an end to wars because they thrive on conflict and enmity.

Offensive realist Mearsheimer describes an anarchic world where every state is for its own and where states transfer the responsibility to act to other states while remaining on the sidelines - it&#39;s called buck-passing. So do we see the Muslim states passing the buck over to the Arabs? And the Arabs conveniently passing the buck onto Trump, who has no concern with the lives or welfare of the Palestinians, and who is best buddies with Netanyahu? So how does all this work? Are the states of the Ummah just thinking to keep passing the buck so that they can have peace in their states and have their multi-billion projects and their luxuries, while Gaza and the West Bank burn and bleed? How long will this work?

By the way, are the &#39;innocent Palestinian civilians in Gaza&#39; that Brad Cooper mentioned Hamas was killing, not the IDF collaborators that they have prepared to wreak havoc in Gaza when they are gone? Are they not the same gangsters who have been looting the humanitarian aid at IDF&#39;s behest? If the Centcom chief wants to protect them, imagine what the calculus of peace drawn in his mind would be!

All this when the IDF forces still remain in two-thirds of Gaza; when humanitarian convoys are still not passing the check-posts; when Israeli leadership is repeating to this day that it won&#39;t have a Palestinian state; and that it is determined to destroy Hamas; and, in the words of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, to ethnically cleanse Palestinians from Gaza. The truth is that Israel sees every war as an opportunity for expulsion of Palestinians, just like in 1948 and 1967.

And the truth is that the US will never cut Israel&#39;s aid; Israel will blame Hamas for something, backfoot on the ceasefire, and the genocide will go on. Because, Israeli perspective is not peace and political stability in the region, its perspective is Zionistic, it is maximising Jewish control, minimising Palestinian presence.

So, the question every member of human society must ask is: is this the way global politics is being run - of satisfying egos of biggity men; of putting trade over human lives; of letting the killing of 70,000 people just for the imperialist dream of an ally? Is this the exemplary &#39;way of life&#39; the leaders of our times propound? And are our votes in the ballot box stamping upon their powers?

Surely then, with our votes, genocide has won and humanity has lost.]]>
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			<title>American strategic deception</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518072/american-strategic-deception</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518072/american-strategic-deception#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Tue, 24 Dec 24 20:24:21 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Zamir Akram]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2518072</guid>
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				<![CDATA[The US also maintains massive nuclear deterrence capability in comparison with which Pakistan's assets are miniscule.]]>
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				<![CDATA[Speaking at an American think-tank on 19 December, Jon Finer, the Deputy National Security Advisor in the Biden Administration, claimed that Pakistan&#39;s development of long-range missiles &quot;will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including the United States&quot;. He added that it was &quot;hard for us to see Pakistan&#39;s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States&quot;.

This sweeping and speculative assertion coming only two days after the US imposed sanction on Pakistani entities allegedly involved in missile development could hardly be a coincidence.

This is obviously part of a well-orchestrated charade intended to deny Pakistan the capability to ensure credible deterrence against India&#39;s rapid development of its strategic arsenal including long range air, land and sea based missiles to be deployed on offshore Indian assets and nuclear powered submarines.

This blatantly discriminatory American policy behind the smoke-screen that Pakistan seeks to threaten the US itself is patently ludicrous and disingenuous. Even objective Americans would find this hard to digest. Indeed, this is strategic deception at its worst.

The US is well aware that ever since Pakistan&#39;s nuclear tests in response to India&#39;s in 1998, its strategic doctrine is focused on ensuring credible deterrence exclusively against India.

Accordingly, Pakistan&#39;s strategic capabilities are not directed against any other country except India, least of all the US. Besides, there is no rationale for Pakistan to threaten the US with which it has no dispute and where millions of Pakistanis reside.

The US also maintains a massive nuclear deterrence capability in comparison with which Pakistan&#39;s assets are miniscule. For Pakistan to attack the US would, therefore, be suicidal.

In open forum discussions on this issue over the recent past with American officials and experts, Pakistani interlocutor, myself involved, have sought clarity and rational arguments that would explain American concern. But none have been offered.

There have been vague and weak arguments that since Pakistan is China&#39;s ally, its strategic capabilities are a part of the threat from China. This begs the question as to why Pakistan, even as a Chinese ally, would jeopardise its own existence by attacking the US?

The truth is that these American allegations are a ploy and an obvious deception. The objective is to protect India&#39;s strategic interests against China. To achieve this, the US wants India to focus on China and not be distracted by competition from Pakistan.

But from Pakistan&#39;s perspective, Indian capabilities ostensibly against China can also be used against Pakistan. In fact, after the thrashing India received from China in 1962, it has no inclination whatsoever to engage in a conflict with the Chinese. But New Delhi will continue to exploit the threat from China to benefit from American hand-outs as Washington&#39;s &#39;Net Security Provider&#39;.

However, for Pakistan, the Indian military build-up presents an existential threat. India has used the American supported nuclear waiver to increase its nuclear arsenal. It has developed short, medium and long range air, land and sea based missiles. It has acquired nuclear powered and nuclear armed submarines. In 2019, India tested an anti-satellite missile (ASAT) and has developed a multi-layered Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) System, involving American Patriot, Israeli Arrow and Russian S-400 missiles.

India is also developing hypersonic missiles while inducting new and emerging technologies into its weapon systems with American assistance. At the same time, Indian strategic bases are being set up in the Indian Ocean, most notably in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and possibly in the Indian Ocean. Additionally, as a part of the US-backed Quadrilateral alliance in the Asia-Pacific, India may obtain basing facilities in the territories of its alliance parties - the US, Japan and Australia.

For Pakistan these developments present existing and potential challenges in the future for which it must be prepared to ensure credible deterrence. Pakistan has already ensured, through its full spectrum deterrence policy, deterrence at the operational, tactical and strategic levels.

It maintains credible second strike capability adequate for its needs. Its land, air and sea based Babur cruise missiles and the MIRVed Ababheel missiles provide capability to penetrate Indian BMD systems. The Shaheen 2 and 3 long range missiles cover the Indian mainland and offshore assets.

However, since deterrence is dynamic depending on changes in technologies and policies, Pakistan cannot afford to foreclose its future options. For instance, development of Indian bases with nuclear armed missiles deep in the Indian Ocean would require Pakistan to develop longer range missiles.

Similarly, Pakistan&#39;s space assets including satellites which are becoming increasingly vital for civilian and military purposes, may come to be threatened by ASATs which India has already tested.

Therefore, for effective deterrence to protect its satellites in future, Pakistan would need an ASAT capability for which long range missiles are essential. Also, to benefit from future space operations, Pakistan would need the capability to launch satellites which require developing a Space Launch Vehicle (SLV) capability. For all these reasons, Pakistan has a legitimate right to develop its long range missile/rocket programme.

If the US has legitimate concerns about Pakistan&#39;s missile development programme, even as the assertion that Pakistan would threaten the US is nonsensical, a reasonable arrangement based mutual non-attack assurances can provide a logical solution. But, since the US does not seek this option, the conclusion is inescapable that America&#39;s true motives are different and the allegations made by the likes of Jon Finer are nothing but an elaborate deception.

America&#39;s true intentions are betrayed by its discriminatory sanctions imposed on Pakistani entities as was done again a few days ago. There are more than 160 such entities that have been sanctioned since 1998 while none in India.

If Washington was truly interested in South Asian security and protecting its own national interests, it should pursue a non-discriminatory and balanced policy towards Pakistan and India. Instead, India has been given a free pass to build up its strategic capabilities while restraint is only being sought from Pakistan. History has demonstrated that discrimination has never succeeded with Pakistan.]]>
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			<title>Time to heal the wounds with Dhaka, and beyond</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518067/time-to-heal-the-wounds-with-dhaka-and-beyond</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518067/time-to-heal-the-wounds-with-dhaka-and-beyond#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Tue, 24 Dec 24 20:24:21 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Ishtiaq Ali Mehkri]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2518067</guid>
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				<![CDATA[Five decades down the line as Bangladesh and Pakistan look back at the trauma, it pains.]]>
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				<![CDATA[The month of December reminds me of Fall of Dhaka in 1971, and the iconic poetry of Naseer Turabi, who in an instant heart-wrenching aura penned a poem reflecting the remorse of dismemberment of East Pakistan in all humility. To this day, the ghazal (ode) he wrote reverberates as a grim reminder of our fallacies in the national milieu, and the trust that the poet had in the truncated section of our erstwhile nationhood.

The legendary poet was felicitous as he wrote: &quot;Woh humsafar thaa magar us sey humnawai na thiKay dhoop chaaon ka aalam raha, judaai na thi&quot; (He was my companion, but with him I didn&#39;t have like-mindedness; Like the clouds and sunlight, together but as apart as can be).

Turabi went on to state the obvious with a big heart: &quot;Adaavatein theen, taghaaful thaa, ranjishein theen magar; Bicharne walay mein sab kuch thaa, be-wafaai na thi&quot; (There were feelings of animosity, indifference and anguish (between us) but; my departed lover had everything (but) hadn&#39;t had unfaithfulness).

Five decades down the line as Bangladesh and Pakistan look back at the trauma, it pains and has nothing to account for but regrets. It is, however, some great consolation that Dhaka is willing to bury the hatchet, and wants to normalise relations with Islamabad. The desire on the part of Dr Muhammad Yunus, the interim leader, to &quot;move on from 1971&quot; is statesmanship.

The new thinking, perhaps, hints at the Bengali nation having come a long way from the Bangabandhu psyche to a progressive, all-inclusive emerging society. The end of Shaikh Hasina&#39;s regime has also impacted in helping Dhaka realise that in an era of geo-economics, carrying the baggage of animosity is an undesired liability.

The plausible interactions are many. The first that needs to be done is to reorient the academia and intelligentsia, and let them brief and debrief over the checkered history in all openness. Trade, commerce and communication avenues are aplenty for a joint populace of around half a billion, with a collective GDP of more than $750 billion.

Apart from buoying trade, both the countries must work together for reviving the moribund eight-nation SAARC, which was conceptualised by Dhaka as a viable organic regional organisation in 1985. Bangladesh can prevail over India to give in its resistance to the regional bloc and help rewrite a new chapter of homogeneity on the pattern of ASEAN. As India sits fingers-crossed with the fall of its ally-dispensation in Dhaka, there can be a quid pro quo for regional amalgamation making it a win-win situation in bilateralism.

The opening up of our quondam eastern flank can unfurl lessons in pluralism, institutional building and respect for political mandate that Bengalis had cherished. Pakistan, unfortunately groped in parochialism these days, can learn a lot and work inwardly for strengthening national unity. With origins of our freedom movement and its founding fathers from Bengal, there is a lot of intellectualism that needs to be revisited, and made part of our national life.

To pick a thread from Faiz Ahmed Faiz, &quot;Kab nazar mein aaye gi be-daagh sabzay ki bahaar; Khoon ke dhabbay dhuleinge kitni barsaaton ke baad...&quot; (When will we see the unsullied green of spring? After how many monsoons will the stains of blood be washed?), it&#39;s time to take a leap forward and connect the dots with Dhaka. An apology from Pakistan - which has expressed regrets over the debacle though - is direly needed for a fresh start.

This also comes as an opportunity to touch-base on the Bihari legion and make an earnest effort to embrace them and heal the wounds of history. Indeed, this reconnecting desires some soul-searching as more than 300,000 Biharis are stranded in Bangladesh - poor souls who stood for Pakistan and paid a price in blood and misery.

If Dhaka can embrace Rohingya Muslims, what prevents Islamabad from bringing back Biharis and undoing their statelessness? Looking beyond the bitterness of 1971 demands an open head and heart, and a comprehensive leap forward is indispensable.]]>
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