The WikiLeaks revelations confirm the obvious, more than what it informs us about the darker corners of US diplomacy. In fact, it is cyber war, in the new game of psy-warfare, targeting individuals and countries to cover up the shame of defeat of the war in Afghanistan, the war in Iraq and the 2006 Israeli war in Lebanon. The cyber war has been launched to achieve three objectives. The first is to defame those countries which have had a role, direct or indirect, in the defeat of the Americans and their allies in Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan and create mistrust amongst them so that they are not able to challenge future American plans in the region.
The second is to create conditions for a civil war in Afghanistan and, out of the resulting chaos and confusion, reduce Pakistan and Iran to subservience. The third is to establish Indian hegemony over South Asia, including Afghanistan, and project American strategic interests in the region.
The technique used is typical of a ‘psy’ operations approach, where truth and lies are mixed. It should be noted that the leaks have not said a word about Israel. Given what WikiLeaks has achieved — breaking the secret code used by US diplomats — would suggest that a country is behind it. The whole issue, no doubt, has created ripples around the world, but it will subside as its source, intent and purpose are closely scrutinised.
Hillary Clinton’s concerns over the WikiLeaks revelations seem a bit hard to believe. In the first place, did she not know what it was up to? Also, why couldn’t it have been stopped and its website blocked, since it is a crime to release state secrets. Surely, this could have been done if the US government so wanted. But it did not, because this is part of the game.
In recent years, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have drawn closer to each other. A multi-billion dollar gas pipeline agreement has been signed with Iran, though Pakistan doesn’t have enough funds for the project (China is willing to provide support). The Iranian president visited Riyadh early this year and established a new level of understanding with the Saudi. Having had the bitter experience of a civil war in Afghanistan, induced by the Americans after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, the Iranians are now opposed to any such design by the occupation forces. WikiLeaks, thus, is a crude attempt to create distrust between Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia at this critical juncture when the occupation forces face the dilemma of exiting Afghanistan without any understanding reached with the Taliban.
Thus a sinister plan, worked out by a Brussels-based think-tank, is emerging to divide Afghanistan into three ethnic zones and deny overall control to the Taliban. Its main features are that a few months will be given to Karzai to negotiate peace and evolve a plan with the Taliban and the Northern Alliance. However, if this fails, then Afghanistan is to be divided into three ethnic zones which will work as federating units. Badakhshan, Samangan and Sari Pul will be handed over to Tajik and Uzbek warlords. Provinces in the east and southeast will be given to the Taliban and other tribal leaders. Kabul, Parwan, Wardak and Logar provinces will be retained by the Americans, supported by about 10,000 American troops, operating from four air bases in this region.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 5th, 2010.