Uncertain future: No peace in sight for Afghans

Many feel instability will continue without an agreement with the Taliban


Tahir Khan January 06, 2015
US General John Campbell, commander of the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force, folds the Isaf flag during the change of mission ceremony in Kabul. PHOTO: AFP

ISLAMABAD:


On December 28, as the Nato flag was lowered in Kabul, US President Barack Obama announced in Washington DC that the “longest war in American history is coming to a responsible conclusion”.


The vast majority of war-weary Afghans, however, feel instability will continue to haunt the country without a peace deal with the Taliban. As they welcomed the new year, Afghan officials reported the deaths of 26 civilians in a rocket attack in Helmand province.

In his written statement, President Obama did not declare a victory in Afghanistan and admitted that the country ‘remains a dangerous place’.  The Taliban, on the other hand, were quick to declare that “America, its invading allies and all arrogant international organisations have been handed a clear cut defeat in this lopsided war”.

Many Afghans believe their country has deeply changed over the past 13 years. Afghanistan now has a democratic system, a constitution, an army, a police force, parliament and an independent media. Now, the country also provides women liberties they could not experience under Taliban rule.



“Thirteen years ago, I could not work outside my home and my daughters could not study,” said Rana Tareen, a senator from Kandahar province. “But now I’m a member of the Masharano Jirga (Senate) and can work on making major positive changes in the country.”

“That is the biggest change in Afghanistan over the last 13 years,” she added.

However, Afghans are upset at what they see as the complete failure of US and its Nato allies to push for an intra-Afghan dialogue.

Afghan analysts are divided over the achievements of US and Nato forces, and whether the Taliban will pose a threat to the Afghan government following the pullout of international forces from the country.

Former Afghan defence minister Shahnawaz Tanai said that while the Taliban could create problems, the country’s security forces were capable of defending the system. “The Taliban will continue their guerilla war but they cannot dislodge the government,” he told The Express Tribune.

Tanai added that the US and international forces staying behind in Afghanistan under a bilateral security agreement “will not allow the Taliban to bring down a system they spent 13 years putting in place”.

However, according to former Taliban ambassador Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, US and Nato have left Afghanistan worse off in terms of insecurity and economy than it was 13 years ago.

“Fighting has expanded now; lawlessness and insecurity have gripped almost every province and even Kabul. Afghanistan’s economy is in pathetic condition and only the people at the helm of affairs have earned a lot. The government now only depends on foreign aid for salaries,” he told The Express Tribune.

He added that the US, by failing to push for a peace plan, had also escaped from its responsibility.



Security pacts with US, Nato

Upon assuming office, President Ashraf Ghani took just one day to sign the controversial security pact which allowed some US and Nato troops to stay in Afghanistan beyond 2014. His predecessor Hamid Karzai had long resisted US pressure for signing the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) over genuine conditions: that the US should help pursue talks with the Taliban and stop night raids on Afghan homes.

Abdul Ghafoor Lewal, the president of the Regional Studies Centre in Kabul, said the BSA is in Afghanistan’s interest. “With security pacts, Afghanistan will receive international support and keep itself safe from the politics of those who are interested in the country for reasons of strategic depth.”

Other, however, voiced suspicion over why Washington chose to keep some troops and bases in the country after ending its combat mission.

Some argued that the BSA has implications for Pakistan in view of the prolonged stay of US forces in Afghanistan. “The US staying back in Afghanistan for 10 more years, even with a low profile, is good news for Pakistan,” said former Afghan minister Dr Farouq Azam. “Pakistan can keep milking the US and keep the Indian threat at bay,” he said. “However, the US presence in Afghanistan and Islamabad’s close cooperation with Washington will affect the cordial Pakistan-China relationship.” The ex-minister went on to say that ties between Kabul and Islamabad would get strained as the war in Afghanistan would continue. “The blame game between Pakistan and Afghanistan will intensify. Pakistan will gradually become more unstable,” he added.

Political challenges

Security challenges aside, the new government in Kabul faces the gigantic task of overcoming internal political problems. President Ghani and his Chief Executive Dr Abdulah Abdullah have been at loggerheads over the formation of the cabinet over the past three months. Ghani had promised in his first speech on September 29 to install a cabinet in 45 days, but that deadline has long since passed.

LOOKING BACK  2001 - 2014

2001

Oct - US-led bombing of Afghanistan begins following the September 11 attacks on the US

Hamid Karzai is sworn in as head of an interim power-sharing government

2002

Jan - Deployment of first contingent of the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force

2003

Aug - Nato takes control of security in Kabul

Elections

2004

Oct - Nov - Presidential elections. Hamid Karzai is declared winner

2006

Oct - Nato assumes responsibilty for security across the whole of Afghanistan

2008

Sep - US president George Bush sends an extra 4,500 US troops to Afghanistan

2009

Feb - Nato countries pledge to increase military and other commitments in Afghanistan

Game changer

2009

Oct - Karzai declared winner in presidential elections

Dec - US president Obama decides to boot US troop numbers in Afghanistan by 30,000

2010

Nov - Nato agrees plan to hand control of security to Afghan forces by end of 2014

Military pact

2011

Nov - Karzai wins the endorsement of tribal elders for the bilateral security pact with US

2012

April - Taliban launch an attack on the diplomatic quarter of Kabul

Nato withdrawal plan

2012

May - Nato endorses the plan to withdraw foreign combat troops by the end of 2014.

Sep - US hands over Bagram high-security jail to the Afghan government

2013

Jun - Afghan army takes command of all military and security operations from Nato forces

Nov - Loya jirga backs Karzai’s proposed security agreement with US military

2014

Feb - Start of presidential election campaign

April - Presidential election inconclusive, goes on to second round between Abdullah and Ghani

Sep - Ashraf Ghani is sworn in as president after a power sharing deal with his rival

Oct - US, Britain end their combat operations in Afghanistan

Published in The Express Tribune, January 6th, 2015.

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