Cotton prices expected to rise again

Published: November 21, 2010

Shortage, high demand to push up rates

KARACHI: Cotton prices may rise once again to Rs10,000 per maund (37.324 kg) on the back of shortages and heavy demand of the commodity from the spinning and textile mills, an analyst said.

Ten days ago, spot rates of cotton had surged to Rs10,500 with support also coming from the rising New York cotton market which had been propelled by high Chinese demand for the commodity and weakness of the dollar against major currencies. In the open market, prices had advanced to record highs above Rs11,000.

Later, prices dropped by Rs3,000 in quick time as activity slowed down because of dearth of transport vehicles which were being used for movement of sacrificial animals. Besides, workers went to their hometowns to celebrate Eid.

Pakistan is facing shortage of cotton this season as an estimated two million bales have been damaged by floods that hit large parts of the country from end-July to August. Dealers were expecting to meet the shortage through cheap imports from India but exporters from the neighbour were demanding higher prices for even those contracts that had been struck some months ago at 70 to 90 cents per pound.

“Indian exporters are demanding around $1.5 per pound which is quite high and is not possible for Pakistani importers to pay,” cotton analyst Shakeel Ahmed said.

Pakistani traders had booked 550,000 bales of cotton from Delhi, but when a delegation of textile mills went to meet the Indian traders they agreed to supply only 200,000 bales and that too at $1.17 to $1.2 per pound, Ahmed said. “For more supplies, they demanded $1.3 which comes to Rs10,300 per maund in rupee terms.”

Pakistan consumes 16 million bales of cotton a year compared to expected production of around 12.4 million bales this season. However, a cotton exporter suggested that the crop loss would be offset by large-scale cultivation of high-yielding Bt cotton variety, particularly in Sindh. Last year, output stood at 12.7 million bales.

Discussing market activity during the week, Ahmed said deals were struck on credit due to the long Eid holidays. He said growers have supplied 95 per cent of the crop and in Sindh some factories were being closed as raw cotton arrival has stopped.

In the New York cotton market, the benchmark March contracts closed down six cents at $1.23 per pound on Friday as China, a major cotton importer, announced measures aimed at tightening capital to cool the economy. Last week, cotton prices had hit an all-time high of $1.57 in the New York market.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 21st, 2010.

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Reader Comments (5)

  • Muhammed Ahmed
    Nov 21, 2010 - 8:54PM

    I red ur mail and I really liked it..I want you people to continue sending ur Mail to me…Recommend

  • Cotton Trader Chicago
    Nov 22, 2010 - 4:43AM

    The “rise” of cotton prices which have dropped by 19% in recent days is a fabrication of you and of the Business Recorder in Karachi. NYC and CMI Futures all indicate a new race to the bottom. Pakistani crops are only of by 13% from estimates by official accounts, yet you lackeys of the local sellers and spinner keep spinning your own cotton tale. Mid-2011 future forward crops are ALREADY SOLD for 90 cents/pound. I will place this predicition on my future fortunes – cotton in Pakistan will see 98 cents/pound by late January.

    Stop trying to sell the world on the cotton shortage – India, US and China have bumper crops.Recommend

  • Talha Khan
    Nov 22, 2010 - 9:23AM

    let us consider man made fibe as a replacement for cotton. Recommend

  • Bilal
    Nov 22, 2010 - 5:04PM

    prices of yarn going down in few day…..Recommend

  • Aijaz Nazam
    Nov 22, 2010 - 9:20PM

    Cotton situation in pakistan is quite dramatic now as there is shortage of cotton in pakistan as by the 14th of nov 19.5% shortage we have seen year on year basis. In physical market form the 10th of november 2010 we this race to bottom started Ginners havnt received much of cotton in factories. Supplier and growers are very tight as up till now only 10 to 15 mds per yield is achieved.
    I believe this international market is in stress but situation in pakistan is quite different in this sector because all textile mills are hand to mouth and have to purchase their dialy requirments form local industry up to 40000 bales daily as they havent other source yet.
    international cotton requires the time to reach to mill as from local ginners only two to three day are required to ship the consignment. what you this does it matter Recommend

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