How to improve Pakistan’s future prospects?

Serious, sustained efforts in improving education, developing health, beatiing militancy can impact Pakistan's destiny

This is a question that is on the minds of millions of Pakistanis and many of the country’s detractors and well-wishers abroad. Considering the enormous challenges that it is facing in terms of political instability, economic stagnation, sectarian and ethnic violence, terrorism and extremism, and strained relations with neighbours, especially with India, the reason for anxiety is comprehensible. The concern gets further aggravated when we find that people are neither united nor prepared to face these challenges. Political leaders are advancing their parochial personal, sectarian, ethnic or sub-nationalist agendas at the cost of the national interest. Clearly, the prime responsibility of combating these multiple challenges rests with the government, but the opposition parties also have a huge obligation in countering them, especially as the passage of the Eighteenth Amendment to the Constitution has devolved a lot of responsibility to the provinces to provide synergy to maximise the meagre resources of the state.

To defeat terrorism and militancy, the success of the military operations in Fata, the situation in Afghanistan and the management of the border are essential prerequisites. While the army has launched a major operation in North Waziristan and a subsidiary one in Khyber, and these have been successful, to what extent the military gains will be sustained and the civilian administration effective so that the IDPs could return and the people are able to lead a normal life, would determine the future trajectory of Pakistan. Many political parties, which include the PTI and the Jamaat-e- Islami have been indifferent or have opposed military operations. Even the PML-N was initially hesitant in giving the go-ahead to the army, not realising that unless the government is able to regain control over its territory, terrorists will rule the roost and Pakistan’s sovereignty will remain compromised in many areas. The whole nation has to stand united against the militants to defeat them in totality. This shows that some of our political leaders, due to personal fear, warped ideological orientation or narrow expedient motives, are prepared to compromise the integrity of the state. Defeating terrorism and extremism is critical if Pakistan’s economy is to be revived. Local and foreign investment is contingent on peace and stability in the country.

Major economic reforms have to be undertaken to rid the country of foreign debt, achieve currency stability and reduce inflation. Significant improvement in the quality of governance and policies is required for achieving sustained growth and to meet the laid-down targets of human and infrastructural development. Economic recovery will largely depend on how the energy shortfall is managed. The Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline has been deliberately stalled due to fear of US sanctions. Investment prospects and future completion of the Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline, though agreed by all parties, will again depend on the overall security situation of the regional countries. Without meeting the energy needs of domestic, industrial, agricultural and service sectors, Pakistan’s economy will stagnate and disruptive forces could come into play.

Meanwhile, for the interim, the government is planning to import LNG from Qatar or Malaysia to fill the huge gap between demand and supply. Due to the sharp decline in the price of oil in the international market, LNG prices have also correspondingly come down and thus become an attractive alternative source of energy.

The insurgency in Balochistan has also put a brake on the development of the province and has adversely impacted the national economy. Balochistan’s rich economic potential in the form of mineral resources and full benefits from the development of the Gwadar Port that sits astride the Strait of Hormuz, cannot materialise until there is peace in the province. All this illustrates the critical importance of security.

Relations with neighbours, in particular, will greatly influence Pakistan’s internal dynamics. Troubled relationships with India and Afghanistan seriously impact Pakistan’s security and economy. Scant resources and vitality of the nation is dissipated in countering these forces. There is growing optimism that relations with the new government in Afghanistan, led by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, will improve. With India, prospects in the near term do not look good despite Pakistan’s best intentions, due to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s intransigence.

Pakistan’s future will be shaped by how political parties strengthen democracy by moving away from dynasties and patronage to merit-based politics. And the vision of the leadership and its ability to address problems will depend on how political parties reform themselves. Will the military, in the coming years, distance itself from politics and power-play and reduce its economic clout, as is being reflected by the conduct of the new military command? It is crucial that all major institutions work and remain within their defined constitutional parameters. If the military continues to influence the foreign, defence and security policies in a dominant manner as in the past, then Pakistan’s institutional weaknesses and decision-making will remain flawed. Pakistan has to move away from being security-oriented to a broader concept of a state to actualise its potential.

Equally significant is the quality of governance and policies of civilian governments that will shape Pakistan’s future. As of now, the performance of the police force and other law-enforcement agencies is far from satisfactory and there is no culture of accountability and pride in performance.

In the long term, it is quality and the spread of education that will determine productivity of the people. The general foundation of science and technology, which has been the driver of change in many developing countries, is very weak in Pakistan and little attention is being paid to address this. Independent research institutions are practically absent. Similarly, the health sector is in complete disarray and grossly neglected, especially in rural areas. Pakistan is one country that is shamelessly reminded every day of its inability to control the rising menace of polio. Lack of education and the poor security situation are the primary reasons for its spread. Serious and sustained effort in improving the standard of education, developing a viable health sector and making concerted effort to defeat insurgency can greatly influence the destiny of Pakistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 19^th, 2014.

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