The writer is a columnist. He is also a former editor of the Mumbai-based English newspaper Mid Day and the Gujarati paper Divya Bhaskar
aakar.patel@tribune.com.pk
In the short period he has headed the BJP as its prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi has kept the party united and avoided mistakes.
The BJP is generally more disciplined than other parties and not given to splitting up, but Modi has kept even minor factionalism in check. After eliminating the threat from LK Advani, he has allowed others in the party enough space for them not to feel threatened.
The party presents a united front and is unworried by its lack of alliances in many states. This is all to the credit of Modi. The coming assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Chhattisgarh will set the tone for the 2014 general elections.
The BJP is sweeping Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, according to a consensus in the opinion polls. In Madhya Pradesh, the party has set up a model similar to that in Gujarat where a strong upper caste and peasantry alliance, combined with good governance, has made it difficult for the BJP to be dislodged.
In Rajasthan also, the BJP has a good combination of castes and dominates the powerful Rajput communities. However, infighting over the leadership of Maratha princess Vasundhara Raje over the Rajputs, has fragmented the party in the past. This time around, the problem is not as pronounced and the BJP is likely to return to power.
In neither state is the idea of ‘change’, which Modi so powerfully represents, an issue. The incompetence, real or supposed, of the Congress on several fronts at the centre is not an issue in Madhya Pradesh or Rajasthan. And so, we can conclude that in neither state is Modi a significant factor.
The smaller states of Chhattisgarh and Delhi are likely to see a closer fight than the larger states, but here also, the BJP is expected to prevail.
In Delhi, the Aam Admi Party (AAP) may make a dent with its protest movement and psephologists are giving it over 15 per cent of the vote, which is remarkable for an issue-based party. If this should happen, the state will get a divided house and the difference between the BJP and the Congress is expected to be marginal.
The damage to the BJP, which would have won in the absence of the AAP, will not be debited to Modi. In fact, if the AAP, on the strength of its position on corruption, is able to generate middle class votes, this is ultimately a good sign for Modi, whose appeal nationally is on similar lines.
Even in states where Modi is not a factor, he helps the BJP in a few ways. First, the BJP is a cadre-based party unlike the Congress, whose freedom movement-based cadre has long vanished.
The BJP foot soldier is from the RSS and is drawn to the party’s Hindutva ideology. He is an ideological soldier and, therefore, more committed. The leader he admires most is Modi, who is Hindutva’s poster boy. Modi’s rise nationally has fired up the BJP and the RSS cadres and this will help the party operationally in every state.
Second, Modi’s star power and charisma is rallying groups that are traditional BJP voters towards him. This is the factor that explains his success at holding public events. This ability to bring and hold potential voting groups is a first-rate asset.
Thirdly, there is already a feeling in the media and also among politicians that the momentum of the 2014 elections has decisively swung away from the Congress and towards the BJP and Modi.
The results of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, in particular, will make this sentiment more concrete. This will guide the undecided voters, to the extent that India has these, towards Modi.
Every opinion poll shows that the BJP is likely to do well in the state elections. Even if Modi is not a factor in them, he is certain to come out strengthened when results are announced in a few weeks.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 1st, 2013.
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COMMENTS (16)
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If one goes latest exit poll reports in media, after recent state elections..it is clear people of these states are not inclined towards Congress for state assembly. This should be an eye opener for the Congress leadership , party workers and its supporters. Without being too despondent, Congress leadership will have to get into huddle and work out an contingency plan to handle general elections in early next year. Losing elections is not end of world , but compromising on basic principles on which Congress has been formed and is seen to be indentified with..like inclusive growth, secularism, equal rights etc..shall be cardinal mistake. Congress party will have re-work tactics to handle opposition party lead by Modi, without indulging into cheap, roadside language being used by Modi.
@ x & @optimist:
You guys show true colors.. thanks to Mr. Jinnah he advocated for different home land for your likes. BTW comparing Mr. Modi with those in Pakistan is a easy escape way to shadow your failures and weaknesses. But remember Mr. Modi will be elected by INDIANS who has a reputations of being logical, liberal and democratic in worl as compared to those terrorist outsourcing country.
This is a new trend. Any dissident that you cannot catch, ask someone to blame that they have sexually assaulted you. . Julian Assange (wikileak) case has given some hint to the govts worldwide.
I think Modi is the Imran Khan of iNDIA. As a PTI supporter, I wish Modi good luck and hope he makes a strong, stable nation and ousts the corrupt Congress (equivalent of PPP/PML-N) which sadly Pakistani electorate (or rigged polls) failed to achieve.
@Ejaaz: wow, corruption may still win.
@indian: Thanks for the reply.
@Parvez: congress deserves more than loss for its corrupted schemes and innumerable scams!!
As Pakistanis, we should support Modi. His politics and national level will make India much weaker. . Pakistani versions of (Muslim) Modis haver considerably weakened Pakistan.
that the modi wave , he changes the perception of AAKAR PATEL , if BJP win 4-0 than we can say there is modi wave...........
BJP has 18% all India vote concentrated in 5 states only. In all other states it is less than 10%. Without alliances it will be reduced to less than 100 seats. And who will ally with Modi? Not Mulayam, Maya, Nitish, Lalu, Mamta, Patnaik, Jagan, Jaya, Karuna, Naidu, Omar. Then who? In fact if some of them gang up BJP can jolly well end up less than 50 seats. In UP, Bihar and MP.
The first thing Modi would do after coming to power is to go after the black money stashed away by the Congress leaders, including Sonia Gandhi in the Swiss Banks. Swill authorities gave a list and details of those holding secret bank accounts but the Congress government just buried it. Modi will revive it. He may even offer an amnesty scheme to bring back the looted money. In any case he shall bring back the black money and this would make a very prosperous country. He shall initiate several development projects and spread the wealth to the poorest.
Contrary to what anyone may think, when Modi comes to power, India's relationship with USA will improve further. When BJP government blasted the nuclear bomb, President Clinton was very furious. But within 2 years India's relationship with USA reached unprecedented levels and US helped India to get nuclear technology. So, no one should read much into the US visa issue for Modi.
Thank you Akaar Ahmed for not mentioning the 2002 riots while taking about Modi.
Your assessment is right on mark.
Aakar Sahib,
You sound depressed.. I am guessing you are a Congress supporter. Keep your spirits up. You never know in politics. Corruption might still win.