Close contest: Race for NA-49 set to go down to the wire

PML-N’s Tariq Fazal faces a threat to his re-election from PPP, PML-Q candidates.

ISLAMABAD:

The race for Islamabad’s NA-49 constituency was a close one in 2008. Five years later, it has gotten even closer.

The emergence of new players and political alliances, a resurgence of parties that boycotted the 2008 elections and shifting voter trends have made reelection a difficult task for the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s (PML-N) Tariq Fazal Chaudhry.

In 2008, Chaudhry barely edged out Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) candidate Nayyar Hussain Bokhari, with 756 votes proving to be the margin of victory.

Bokhari, now a senator, and third-placed Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) politician Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar had secured a combined 58 per cent of the total votes cast in NA-49.

Khokhar is now running against Chaudhry on a PPP ticket, with the support of PML-Q’s seat-adjustment.



Khokhar is not expected to secure the aggregate number of PPP and PML-Q votes from 2008, but with his in-your-face election campaign, a showdown is on the cards.

The Express Tribune examined polling station results from 2008 to identify areas in NA-49 where the total votes secured by PPP and PML-Q was close to, or more than, the PML-N’s final tally, and then proceeded to find out the current situation in those areas.

In Bhara Kahu, where around 3,500 votes were cast in all, at least three polling stations saw the PPP and PML-Q total come within 20 votes of the PML-N’s total.

At one polling station in nearby Nayi Abadi, Chaudhry’s 317 votes were equal to the sum of Bokhari’s 126 and Khokhar’s 191.

Chaudhry won 54 per cent of Bhara Kahu’s total votes, but some voters have withdrawn support for him.

“Whenever we asked him about developmental work, he would claim his hands are tied because the PML-N is in the National Assembly opposition,” said Bhara Kahu resident Raja Ikram Naseer.

In contrast, senator Bokhari had upgraded schools and helped people get gas connections during the past five years, according to area residents.

The residents also claimed that 11,000 duplicate votes of Murree-based citizens which had previously gone to the PML-N had been removed from NA-49, a move that would help non-PML-N candidates.

But the voter trend in Bhara Kahu is far from homogenous. Chaudhry is likely to secure the PML-N’s ideological vote.

“My whole family is voting for the PML-N. The party’s core supporters are never going to vote for anyone else,” said Bhara Kahu resident Shahid Abbasi.

In other areas such as Mera Bhagwal, where Chaudhry lagged behind Bokhari in 2008, the tide has turned.

“My whole village is voting for the PML-N because of a land feud involving the Khokhars,” said Bhagwal resident Raja Sadaqat.

In Humak, where Chaudhry had started a massive road development project, at least two polling station results suggest the PPP and PML-Q’s cumulative votes pose a threat to the PML-N’s hold. However, some youngsters may opt for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s Ilyas Meherban, who also belongs to the Chaudhry clan.

Sector G-6 saw around 10,000 votes cast at its polling stations in 2008. Chaudhry was the clear winner and Faheem Akhtar Bhatti, whose vote is registered in G-6/1, doesn’t think there will be any surprises on May 11.

“Thanks to Nawaz Sharif, the travel time to my village in Bhera was shortened, so he gets my vote,” said Bhatti.

But the Jamaat-e-Islami’s Zubair Farooq may yet win over right wing voters who supported the PML-N last time around, said Tahir Abbas.

Political activity seems to be the only clear winner in NA-49 for now. As for the rest, in the words of Sadaqat, “it will all become clear on May 11.”

Published in The Express Tribune, April 29^th, 2013.