File photo of PML-N Chief Nawaz Sharif and brother Shahbaz Sharif. PHOTO: TMN/FILE
LAHORE:
In a significant pattern with neither Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) nor Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) fielding their heavyweight politicians in 13 National Assembly (NA) seats of Lahore against Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N)’s candidates for the May 11 general elections, we may have something to watch out for.
Constituencies where once the likes of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto contested and won, now have second- and third-tier contestants from the PPP, and no stalwarts of PTI either.
Does that mean these parties have unofficially conceded defeat to PML-N even before the elections? Or is this wise political strategy whereby they don’t want to “waste” their strongest contestants? In any case, this signifies that PML-N remains a force to reckon with in the Punjab.
While PPP does have a track record of winning in Lahore, particularly when it clean-swept the city in the general elections of 1970 and 1977, this time it doesn’t seem to have a strategy for reclaiming its former glory.
On the other hand, PTI which claims that it can wipe out PML-N from Lahore has so far contested in two general elections (in 1997 and 2002) and both times, its leader Imran Khan lost his seats. In 1997, he suffered defeat at the hands of PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif and renowned TV anchor Tariq Aziz from the two constituencies he stood for.
This time, PTI’s head Imran Khan plans to contest from NA 122. PML-N has unofficially revealed that Ayaz Sadiq will contest against Khan. Sadiq and Khan were once together in PTI but later parted ways. In the 2002 elections, Sadiq had defeated Khan from the same constituency with a big margin.
Meanwhile, Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif will contest elections from NA 120 and NA 129, respectively, both being constituencies where they would not have to face any heavyweight competitors.
According to PML-N officials, PTI’s only chance in Lahore is if Khan and PTI’s Lahore President Abdul Aleem Khan contest from NA 125 and NA 126, respectively.
PPP’s candidate from NA 125, Naveed Chaudhry, hopes Khan contests against him, as he believes this would divide PML-N’s votes and Chaudhry could then safely steal the show.
It is pertinent to mention that none of the contestants in PTI’s list of candidates from Lahore have ever been members of the National or Provincial assemblies. Khan is the only exception, as he was an MNA in 2002 from a seat he won from Mianwali.
Out of the PPP’s list of candidates, only two have experience of having been MNAs, namely Samina Khalid Ghurki from NA 130 and Tariq Shabbir Mayo’s from NA 129.
Naveed Chaudhry, while talking to The Express Tribune, said that whenever free and fair elections are held in the country, PPP wins all seats from Lahore. “Ever since the rigged elections of 1988 and 1990, PPP started to lose its grip on Lahore city,” he said. PPP boycotted the 1985 elections, and bagged six seats in the 1988 elections. It won only one seat each time in the 1990 and 1993 elections, three seats in 2002 and two seats in 2008.
“In 1988, when Islami Jamhoori Itehad (IJI) could not get a majority in NA, certain people engineered insidious plans to get IJI to win in the Punjab Assembly in the provincial elections,” said Chaudhry. He pointed out that the Supreme Court had recently declared that 1990 elections were rigged.
Chaudhry added that after decades, free and fair elections are going to be held, and he hoped that PPP would wrest back its power in the city.
A majority of PML-N candidates have previous experience as lawmakers and are determined and hopeful of winning all seats in the forthcoming election. They hope to eliminate PPP and PTI as political forces from Lahore.
Nawaz Sharif first contested elections in 1985 as an independent candidate. In 1988 and 1990, IJI bagged two and eight seats respectively. PML-N was established after the 1990 elections and contested as a party for the first time in the 1993 election. PML-N won eight seats both in 1993 and 1997, four seats in 2002 and 11 seats in 2008.
1970 election
Total 8 NW assembly seats, ranging from NW 58 to NW 65
PPP, contesting with the sword symbol, swept all eight seats in Lahore
ZA Bhutto, contesting for the first and last time from NW60 Lahore, bagged 78,132 votes
Pakistan Muslim League’s Javed Iqbal got 33,921 votes
ZA Bhutto also won NW 116 Larkana, NW 79 Multan, NW 121 Hyderabad and NW127 Thatta. He retained NW 116
ZA Bhutto vacated NW 60 after the January 1971 by-elections, after which PPP’s Mian Mehmood Ali Kasuri won the seat
1977 election
There were 8 NA seats, stretching from NA 81 to NA 88
Three parties -- PPP, Pakistan National Alliance (PNA) and PML Qayyum -- were in the field
PPP, contesting with the sword symbol, swept all eight seats in Lahore
PNA came in second
The winners included SM Masood, Khalid Latif Kardar, Mian Ehsanul Haq, Dr SM Yaqoob, Mian Salahuddin, Malik M Akhtar, M Rashid and Malik Miraj Khalid
1985 election
There were 8 NA seats, stretching from NA 81 to NA 88
Elections were held on a non-party basis: individuals could only contest as independent candidates
PPP boycotted the election
Junejo’s close companions, office bearers of Jamat-e-Islami, Liaqat Baloch and Hafiz Salman Butt, and Nawaz Sharif became members of the NA from NA 86 Lahore
Nawaz’s first appearance in the political realm was a success
Nawaz bagged 35,719 votes while his rival Ahmad Hassan Syed Asad Gilani got 17,896 votes
Nawaz also won a Punjab assembly seat, PP 105 Lahore, which he opted to retain
By-elections on the vacated NA 86 seat were held on May 19, 1985. Ahmad Hassan Syed Asad Gillani won the seat
1988 election
Number of NA seats increased from 8 to 9 due to delimitation, which ranged from NA 92 to NA 100
PPP, contesting with the arrow symbol, bagged 6 seats, while Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI) bagged the other 2
Benazir Bhutto won NA 94 and got 53,425 votes
Benazir also won two other NA seats, NA 166 Larkana and NA 189 Karachi
She retained NA 166 but PPP lost NA 94 in the by-elections
Nawaz Sharif, now contesting under IJI, won NA 95 with 49,318 votes
Nawaz also won NA 88 Sialkot and two seats in the Punjab assembly. He retained PP 123.
In the by-elections Mian Azher wonNA 95 on the IJI platform
The six victorious PPP MNAs were Aitzaz Ahsan (NA 93), Benazir Bhutto (NA 94), Jahangir Badar (NA 96), Kh Ahmed Tariq Raheem (NA 97), Haji M Asghar (NA 99) and Meraj Khalid (NA 100)
1990 election
There were 9 NA seats, ranging from NA 92 to NA 100
PPP, contesting with the arrow symbol, formed an alliance with Pakistan Democratic Alliance (PDA), against IJI, which contested with the bicycle symbol
PPP only won one seat: Barrister Aitzaz Ahsan, on PDA’s platform, bagged 65,624 votes
IJI won 8 seats
Nawaz Sharif won
NA 95. He bagged 59, 944 votes
His rival, PDA’s Air Marshal Asghar Khan, got 39,585 votes
Shahbaz Sharif made his first foray into politics, on IJI’s platform. He defeated PDA’s Jahangir Badar by a slight margin from NA 96
1993 election
There were 9 NA seats, ranging from NA 92 to NA 100
Nawaz Sharif contested elections under his own party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
(PML-N), with the symbol of the tiger.
PPP contested with the arrow symbol once again
PML-N won eight seats while PPP won only one
Nawaz won NA 92, NA 95 Lahore and
NA 12 Abbotabad. He retained NA 12.
After the by-elections, Mian Abbas Sharif from NA 92 and Ishaq Dar from NA 95 won the seats
Shahbaz Sharif won NA 96 and PP 125. During the by-elections, he quit NA 96, which Hashmi won.
PPP’s Javed Ghurki won the NA 100 seat
1997 election
There were 9 NA seats, ranging from NA 92 to NA 100
PML-N swept the board, bagging 8 seats. The other was won by an independent from NA 100
Nawaz won NA 95 and NA 12 Abbottabad
Shahbaz Sharif won NA 96 and PP 125. NA went to PML-N’s Kamil Ali Agha after the by-election
This election also marked Imran Khan’s emergence into politics
Imran contested two seats, NA 94 and NA 95, but lost both
From NA 94, Imran bagged 4,595 votes, while his rival, PML-N’s Tariq Aziz, got 50,227 votes
From NA 95, Imran got 5,365 votes while his rival, Nawaz Sharif, bagged 50,592 votes
2002 election
Number of NA increased from 9 to 13 in the city, stretching from NA 118 to NA 130
Four parties -- PPP, PML-N, PTI and PML-Q – contested
PML-N bagged 4 seats, PPP got 3, seats, PML-Q got 2, PTI got nothing
Dr Tahirul Qadri won a seat on a ticket from his party, Pakistan Awami Tehreek
Imran Khan contested from NA 122 against PMLN’s Sardar Ayaz Sadiq. Imran was defeated
Sadiq bagged 37531 votes, while Imran could only get 18636
2008 election
There were 13 NA seats
PML-N bagged 11 seats while PPP won 2 seats
The Sharif brothers could not contest as their nomination papers were rejected, and Aitzaz Ahsan was leading the movement for the restoration of the judiciary
PPP candidates, Asif Hashmi from NA 118, Jahangir Badar from NA 120, Aurangzeb Burki from NA 121, and Naveed Chaudhry from NA 125, lost their seats
2013 election candidates
The PPP has awarded tickets to Asif Hashmi, Aurangzeb Burki and Naveed Chaudhry, all of whom lost in 2008
PPP’s two time winner MNA Samina Khalid Ghurki (2002, 2008) is a hot candidate to give tough time to PML-N
PTI’s Abdul Aleem Khan, who contested for and lost the NA 127 seat in 2008, was once again recommended for the constituency. He refused this and demanded either
NA 125 or NA 126
Aleem is yet to take his final decision, and PTI’s list may be changed
For complete list of PML-N Punjab candidates visit: tribune.com.pk/elections2013
Published in The Express Tribune, April 18th, 2013.
COMMENTS (62)
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Read "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" by Nassim Nicolas Talib.
me and most of my relatives will vote for PTI. insha allah ! PTI zindabad !
why you forget heavy weight of jamat-e-islami
@Go Zardari Go!!: Firstly, PMLN has no trolls, so no chance of idiocy. Secondly, only PTI "trolls" believe that hitting recommendations and posting comments will give IK any chance. They will be disappointed on 11 May.
In Sha ALLAH PML-N will won all seats from Lahore and those cheap mediocre from PTI or PPP wil loose as well.
If the educated people of Lahore fall for the PML-N hog wash then what hope is there for the rest of the country?
Lahoris should have more sense than voting for a family!! The name of the party should be the Sarif Party...just look at the number of candidates from the family!!!
PMLN will clean sweep whole of Pakistan IA.
I have relatives and friends in Lahore and they say most of the people in Lahore are fed up of N-league. Eveyonw wants change and do support PTI. Candidate does not matter that much. Election day will decide what people think and whom will they vote
Vote registration of youth and their political involvement is a good sign. PTI is attracting young blood. But will it translate to vote in their favour, and will they get victory, is yet to be seen. PTI can not clean sweep Lahore and Punjab. It will be surprising if Imran Khan secures more than 30% seats in whole Pakistan in the 2013 general elections.
"A majority of PML-N candidates have previous experience as lawmakers" --- This sentence just about summarizes it all. Old and experienced from PML-N and new and fresh from PTI. It's up to Pakistani's to choose now. Same old or change? Time to decided is now. I say change.
Is there is any heavyweight in PTI?
It is a good column by ET which summarizes the previous history of politics of Lahore. Multiple political factors are involved in Lahore. Top factor is party affiliation and support. Then comes the cast factor. People also prefer experienced politicians to represent them. Track record in previous terms also matters. The candidates who served well previously, are always future hot contenders.
Imran Khan may complete the hat-trick of defeats from Lahore :) Ayaz Sadiq is capable of dealing the major blow to PTI in NA-122 Lahore.
@IK: So clearly Pmln trolls are idiots that they can't do the same same right. anyway we will find out on may 11th who is being pragmatic.
Amongst trio of Musharaf, Qadri and Imran, two are already down and one to go. "Muk Muka" of PTI and PPP has failed. Lion has eaten both.
@Lahori: Yes, I do believe in determinent and experienced team of PML N, and opposition like PTI will be a value addition to our political system.
NO chance for PTI even to get single seat in Lahore
PML-N will do clean sweep in Lahore InshaAllah.
@Muhammad Junaid Tayyab: One can easily multiply the recommendations. You simply need to clear your browser history to re-recommend a comment. PTI trolls are at full work here. So no big deal....
@Muhammad Sajid: You have met the wrong people...NS is our next prime minister. I am just being pragmatic. Please come out of your fantasy and expect IK to get 25-30 seats (at max.) all over Pakistan.
the title clearly portrays PTI as the Third Force
Syed Zahid Bokhari of PPP will definitely win from NA-126 becuase he knows the people and has lived here for 40-plus years. Not like the imported politicians from defence like Shafqat Mehmood and Khawaja Ahmad Hassan.
PTI will win no matter what, inshaAllah. Imran Khan for PM
I Think the analysis you made is completely wrong! Thinks changed quite rapidly in Lahore! PTI have Quite Strong Hold in Lahore! There are more then five seats belong to PTI Till Now! Imran Khan From NA 122, Shafqat Mahmood from NA 126, Haji Karamat Ali Khokhar from NA 128, Muhammad Madni from NA 119 and their is a chance of upset from NA 129 where Mansha Sindhoo strengthen his position against Shahbaz Shareef. Just Wait & See!!
Recommendations on positive comments speak of itself. Winner is clearly IK !
People must follow Mr. Khan who says: "does not matter whoever will be the candidate my vote for PTI…"
@UMAIR: Lol, still?
ET guys, please show some political maturity. In Lahore, votes are cast mostly on party basis not heavyweight basis.
Sir, we live in Allama Iqbal town Lahore, majority of people are going to vote for PTI. we are going to make a history on 11 May.
My vote for PML N .
inshallah PTI will succeed with flying colors
Newspaper, ever heard of the word 'change'? It appears that it isn't in your vocabulary!!!!!!!
80% I came across in Lahore, were fed up of PMLN and PPP! People want change!
Funny is it not? Bring another secular party and watch it all go down the rain.
and BTW MUSIC should be hunger of the soul as they presume. People can replace ROTI with good songs. Incase they (PTI) comes to power.
Expected results are always based on historical trends................however, histories are made..........when PMLN defeated PPP in lahore for the first time they made a new history..............Some dent in N league in lahore region cannot be entirely ruled out.
Lahore analysis is completely wrong. PTI is pitching new and fresh educated and clean and plus local faces . Thats its strategy to convince youth of lhr the change pti will bring
Im sorry ET but are not Imran Khan (Chairman), Shafqat Mahmood (Information Secretary until few days ago), Dr Yasmeen Rahman (Secretary General, PTI Punjab), Hamid Khan (Chief Election Commissioner of the party and former SVP) senior leaders of the party. also other big names such as Ahsan Rashid, PTI Punjab President Ejaz Chaudhry, Mian Mahmud ur Rashid and PTI youth wing President Hasan Niazi are all contesting from the city on provincial seats.
Im sure ET is well aware that many of the parties top guns are not from Lahore. I wonder what sort of articles ET would've written if Shah Mahmood Qureshi (already contesting 4 seats from Multan, Umerkot and Tharparkar), Javed Hashmi (contesting 2 seats from Multan and Islamabad), Jehangir Tareen (contesting in Lodhran) had stood from Lahore. let me guess PTI has no local candidates hence outsiders contesting.
Will nawaz sharif attend parliament if he wins his seat but his party is routed?
Who ever will be against PTI candidate will loose InshALLAH...People want change and the real change has come. We will not vote for those who are corrupt by birth. "Qarz Utaro Mulk Sanwaro" type slogans will no more work for them and people of this nation now know their real faces. This time Vote will either give life to the nation or will completely shatter its existence.
@Javed Afridi: Afridi Sahab, It's LHR not KPK,, Educated people will vote PTI Inshallah, irrespective of the candidates... :) .
They don't field heavy weights because Lahore has decided to vote for PTI no matter who..Biased journalism..
They don't field heavy weight because Lahore have decided to vote for PTI no matter who..Biased journalism..
@Author
And you seriously expect someone to read all this??????????
in lahore election is party based not candidate based
wait and watch how these so called bigwigs fall in the elections
When PTI gives tickets to new faces then they are said to be naive and political immature .when they give tickets to electable or personalities then they are not the party of change.hhehehhe..unbelievable article...I can only salute to the PML N media management...they have the money and brain to use the media for there advantage...Also after 30 October it seemed that all the issues of Pakistan are caused by PTI..and now again a party who gives tickets to its general secretary..information secretary..ISF president...PTI chairman..grandson of Allama Iqbal..in Lahore are all small named in the eye of this guy..
ET... is this news or your analysis or you are trying to create perception that PMLN is going to win this election. in lhr vote is for IK not for candidates.... i am hopeful with with help of GOD ik will win minimum 7 seats and those are from AI town till before riwand city and badiyan. however PTI supporters are praying and putting efforts to defeat sharif family members. there will be tough time for nawaz sharif and hamza sharif to win election however i think shabaz will win his seat
Come ON ET !!!! For once some research !!! PTI gave up on Lahore?? Seriously, u think so? I feel like banging my head to the wall.....this report is the biggest Joke i hv heard this year !! Lahore is the most important City for PTI (and just to remind u, PTI has very little big names(CLEAN big names))
For one, before you go on jot articles, PTI has distributed Lahore tickets already, well before N. Aleem Khan is not expecting any tickets now, no list will be changed, he is the chief organizer for Lahore and in his new role he is co-ordinating with all PTI ticket holders.
As for your contention PTI failed to field stalwarts against PMLn. Well PTI announced its list earliest, why didnt N filed anyone against IK? Because each constintuency is a different ball game.
Secondly, PTI in Lahore has anough substance. JH found it difficult to steal a seat for himself when elected bodies had recommended otherwise.
And lastly, the folly of all follies is to oredict results of May 11 polls on the basis of past results. This is a totally different setting. No point feeling good about one what achieved in 97, or 2002, or 2008.
Truth will be exposed on THE DAY.
Reporting or advertisement?
Election day will tell how big are these "Big Names"..ET make as much money from PML(N) as you can, after election they will not be left with anything anyways
ET--stop this misleading (pre decided outcome) headline PTI is note playing dirty game of electables as they are bringing youth and 80% new leadership for change which all surveys say 90% want change
I honestly think, the author is a little bias here about PTI. It's very obvious with all the people I have met in Lahore, they are absolutely leaning towards PTI for sure...
@ Author, well you already said it. Nothing more to add. BTW, its the same scenario across the country ;)
does not matter whoever will be the candidate my vote for PTI...
Pretty interesting !
A fairly decent job at historical data analysis, but when the fundamentals are shifting, historical trends can't be extrapolated to future expectations. This election is quite different from prior elections (except that of 1970) since things have never been as bad as they are now and voter enrollment itself has reached record heights (based on NADRA and ECP data available), which means we will see record turnout as well that can potentially turn the tables.
ET...as biased as ever. Fielding heavyweights does not guarantee success, it is rather the voters' confidence that is the key. PTI is already a winner! Long Live IK & PTI!