Solar power is now cheaper than diesel generators

Published: November 20, 2012

Falling costs are likely to make photovoltaic cells a viable source of alternative electricity production in Pakistan. DESIGN: TARIQ GILANI

KARACHI: 

It was once thought to be one of the most expensive forms of electricity, but prices of photovoltaic cells have dropped so dramatically over the past two years that solar electricity is now cheaper than diesel-fired generator electricity and may soon compete even with the heavily subsidised cost of grid electricity in Pakistan.

In many parts of Pakistan, even off-grid solar power systems can produce electricity at approximately Rs14.40 per kilowatt-hour, or about $0.15 per kWh, according to Shaaf Mehboob, vice president of the Renewable and Alternative Energy Association of Pakistan (REAP), an industry group.

By contrast, grid electricity for most upper-middle class consumers in Pakistan currently costs in the range of Rs11 to Rs13 per kWh and diesel-fired generators can cost as much as Rs32 per kWh. While gas-fired generators can still produce cheaper electricity – owing to the highly subsidised domestic consumer gas prices in Pakistan – the natural gas shortage in the country has made the solution unviable.

That dramatic fall in the price of a unit of electricity is largely due to the sharp decline in the prices of photovoltaic cells, or solar panels. “The cost of importing one watt [of photovoltaic power generation capacity] is now just $1, compared to $2 just over a year ago, and down from $4 in 2008. That decline is quite noteworthy,” said Mehboob.

He said this on the sidelines of the inaugural session of a five-day training programme on photovoltaic systems organised with the help of Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) and a German technical training firm, GIZ.

“The results of this reducing cost is now being seen in the market as more and more people are opting for solar panels especially in big cities of Pakistan,” said Mehboob. “It is all about economic viability. Today, solar energy is much cheaper than it was ever before hence people are opting for it.”

Solar panels are now increasingly being recognised by many individual and even some industrial users in Pakistan as a cost-effective alternative to diesel generators and more reliable than gas-fired generators. Yet despite the economic logic, the rate of uptake appears to be low. REAP officials say that Pakistan imported just 15 megawatts of solar power production capacity in the first ten months of 2012.

The solar-power industry in Pakistan, however, is excited about its growth prospects. REAP started in 2010 and has already grown to over 270 member companies nationwide. Many importers have found particularly strong demand in parts of the country with unreliable grid electricity, such as the northern parts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Some companies, even large ones like Yunus Textile Mills, are considering installing solar panels as an alternative source of electricity to their back-up generators.

The sharp decline in photovoltaic cell prices is due to the dual effect of rising production in China and slowing demand in Europe, the main market for solar energy.

The irony of sun-starved Europe beating sunshine abundant Pakistan in solar energy adoption was emphasised by the German engineers who were present at the workshop. “The average solar radiation in Pakistan is significantly higher than Germany where solar panels do not produce energy in months like December and January when sunlight is usually low,” Raphael Lechner, one of the German trainers, told The Express Tribune. “Pakistan has a long way to go in the alternative energy sector, even when compared to its regional peers.”

Part of the reason for the lower uptake is the extraordinarily high subsidies on electricity given by the government to all consumers, regardless of ability to pay. In fiscal 2012, the government spent Rs500 billion subsidising electricity, more than half of the total budget deficit for the year. That subsidy artificially lowers the price of grid electricity in Pakistan to below average production costs, which renders otherwise workable alternatives like solar energy unviable.

Yet the solar energy industry is still optimistic, given the financially unsustainable nature of the government’s subsidy policy, which causes grid electricity to be highly unreliable in many parts of the country. In most of Punjab, summer power outages can last as long as 20 hours a day, a situation that is likely to fuel the demand for more reliable, even if slightly more expensive, solar electricity.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 20th, 2012.

 

Reader Comments (15)

  • jnffarrell1
    Nov 20, 2012 - 5:33AM

    And if local users don’t get piggish (say only go for 40% of their total electric need) they can clip the power needs city wide by airconditioning on solar power and not from the grid. Of course power companies could help even more by letting helpful citizens run their electric meters backwards when they have a surplus.

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  • whab
    Nov 20, 2012 - 5:55AM

    nice article. some information about where to buy solar panels from and installation procedure will be appreciated

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  • Nov 20, 2012 - 8:09AM

    The solar solution is available to all Pakistani at affordable prices. Please contact EBR Energy at 92-42-3581-7340/41or info.pak@ebr-energy.com to learn about how afforadable solar energy has become for residential and commercial use in Pakistan.

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  • Nov 20, 2012 - 10:00AM

    Nice to see the fake numbers again – “Rs14.40 per kilowatt-hour, or about $0.15 per kWh” – it would have been wonderful if Shaaf Mehboob could have shared the place where people of Pakistan can buy solar energy on such a FREE price. Currently I have been paying Rs. 15+ per kWh through national grid and my monthly bill goes up to Rs. 30,000, I would love to go with solar if it became so cheap in November 2012 – Mr. Shaaf, is it REAP or AEDB or government of Pakistan who will be supplying solar energy at a cost of Rs14.40 per kilowatt-hour, or about $0.15 per kWh??? A big question to be addressed yet !!!

    God bless you.

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  • Zubair
    Nov 20, 2012 - 11:06AM

    Well, solar energy is good but initial cost is too high and for running heavy duty appliances in small house, you will run short of installation space for panels let alonr the money required for the project.

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  • Logistics
    Nov 20, 2012 - 11:47AM

    Don’t forget that when prices are falling people have an advantage to postpone decisions.

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  • Sajid Iqbal
    Nov 20, 2012 - 12:46PM

    @EBR Energy (Pvt) Ltd.:
    Get your website fixed. Either the Quote page should work or your should provide alternative page for pricing.

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  • ishrat salim
    Nov 20, 2012 - 1:07PM

    it will be even cheaper if the govt abolishes all duty on import of solar equipment….encourages to contribute excess electricity to neighbors on mutually agreed rates or 2 neighbors can jointly install the solar power & use it on sharing basis….or the govt can learn from the Australian govt use of solar power by private citizens, wherein excess power generated are sold to the govt at an agreed rate….

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  • Mustafa
    Nov 20, 2012 - 1:20PM

    Get your Headlines correct.

    How can you say solar ‘power’ is cheaper than diesel ‘generators’. Its like you’re comparing apples to an orange vendor.

    If you are to compare, it is the investment in Solar panels for a specific power generation capacity vs the investment in Diesel generators for the same power generation capacity.

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  • Lobster
    Nov 20, 2012 - 3:05PM

    @EBR Energy (Pvt) Ltd.:
    Create a Pakistan specific website, if you are serious about the business. US address and contact details doesn’t help much.

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  • Ahmed
    Nov 20, 2012 - 4:10PM

    Solar power is not cheap as suggested in the article. When you buy the whole system which include deep cycle batteries, inverter, charge controller etc it becomes expensive. This is the main reason it is not getting popular. In Pakistan solar power is mostly used in the remote areas specially in the north where people use it for charging mobile phones and for operating LED lights after sunset. For heavy loads it is still very expensive.

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  • Nov 20, 2012 - 6:02PM

    Thank you for your feedback about the content of EBR Energy website. In the event that you are not seeing the Pakistan-specific website, please cut & paste the following link into your Internet browser. Thank you.

    http://www.ebr-energy.com/en/index.php?loc=Pakistan&l=en&p=home

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  • shaaf
    Nov 20, 2012 - 10:16PM

    Interesting points of view. I will try to answer questions as best as possible. @ professional engineer. The number on the system cost at $1 is a misquote. Actually panel price is around $1. However, complete panel prices are higher. Having said that, when we calculate the price of electricity per unit then in the case of solar we see how much energy a solar panel can produce over its useful life in a particular location. which in the case of good quality equipment is around 20 years with a 1% depreciation in output per annum. In Pakistan where solar insolation levels are high the number of watt hours produced from the capital investment gives us the cost per unit. For solar the capital cost is high which is the hiccup but the unit cost of electricity is cheap. @ Mustafa the cost of purchasing the generator is cheap but the cost of producing electricity from it is calculated based on the fuel it consumes and the price of fuel. Therefore, we establish that the per unit cost of electricity produced from a generator is far more expensive than solar. Remember we are comparing operating costs here. with solar you make the investment at the time of purchase then youre free but with a generator you continue to pay for fuel which adds up over the life cycle. At the end of the day the genset will cost you more. @ Ahmed solar is gaining popularity for a multitude of applications such as water pumping, rural, industries and other sectors where capital costs can be made. I hope this clarifies your concerns. If anyone has any questions please feel free to inbox me on shaaf@adaptive-tec.com

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  • shaaf
    Nov 20, 2012 - 10:33PM

    interesting points of view. @ professional engineer: some numbers have been misquoted. price of $1 is for panels only not the whole system. Having said that the numbers for electricity generation are not entirely “fake”. with solar systems you incur the cost of buying the equipment at the time of purchase. After that the amount of electricity the system generates over its lifecycle (usually 20 years with good panels with a 1% depreciation in power per annum) from that investment determines the cost per unit which can be less than Rs. 10/unit in instances. @ Mustafa: in the case of generators the capital cost is low but the operating cost is price of fuel that goes into running the generator for each unit of electricity it produces which at current prices is high. remember we are comparing operating costs not capital costs because in solar the operating costs are marginal. It is not a myth that the cost per unit of electricity through solar is much cheaper than through a generator @ Ahmed: solar is gaining popularity for a multitude of applications. For example, water pumping, rural, industrial etc. REAP has been instrumental in reducing the duty on solar to zero percent and we are trying to bring in more incentives for end users. If you require any further clarity please feel free to inbox me on shaaf@adaptive-tec.com

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  • Ali
    Nov 21, 2012 - 9:10AM

    This is too simplistic and there is a dearth of quality names in the market. Also as pointed out earlier batteries and the electronics involved add to the cost quite significantly. The upfront cost of a decent sized solar generator is around 2~3 LACs which will not give you any significant backup.
    However the prices of solar panels has fallen and the $1 figure is when one buys in bulk the retail price is still pretty high.
    The government either provincial or federal should provide a relief in taxes for people who add solar to their homes or businesses.

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