India's democracy functions because of caste. The basis of voting is not issues or ideology, as in European democracies, but the preference for one's own. Is Pakistan different? We'll see that later, but first, to demonstrate the assertion.
The BJP is seen as an ideological party, but it isn't. It is the party of Lingayats in Karnataka, Patels in Gujarat and Rajputs in Rajasthan. The votes of these castes keep it in power. Its voters in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are the upper castes, who are few in number. This puts the BJP behind the more numerous caste formations and parties; peasant Yadavs and Muslims in Mulayam Singh's and Laloo Yadav's parties and the Dalits in Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj party. No caste is more than a fifth of the population and so alliances are necessary. The Congress is India's only ecumenical party. It is genuinely above region, caste and religion. But even Congress is forced to pick candidates on the basis of caste because Indians stubbornly vote for their own rather than on issues.
Now, let's look across the border. Pakistan has not had many proper elections so there is limited data on its pattern of voting. I don't know of any psephologists on Pakistan's television channels who have the expertise that Indian psephologists have. Certainly, none has the experience. In its first general election, in 1971, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto won in West Pakistan and Mujibur Rehman swept the east. The Bengalis clearly voted for identity, but what about Punjabis and Sindhis? I would say that they voted for identity, too; 1971 is the only time that a party won a plurality of seats in both Sindh and Punjab. Why?
This was an election fought in West Pakistan on three issues: Against the Bengali's separatism, against Hindu India (Bhutto's popularity in Punjab came from his opposition to General Ayub Khan's sellout at Tashkent), and against military rule. Bhutto won because he owned all three issues. He represented Punjabis and Sindhis against these threats.
This is why the Baloch and the Pashtun, who are unconcerned about these things, did not vote for Bhutto. As Nadeem F Paracha has pointed out, he swept Lahore but not Karachi in that election. This is because the Muhajir goes his own way. I believe Pakistan continues to vote on the basis of identity and this will create a problem for Imran Khan, who is from the small community of Niazis.
Today in the National Assembly, the PML-N has one seat from Balochistan and none from Sindh. The number of seats it won even in the Sindh and Balochistan assemblies is negligible. It is a party of Punjabis. It would be interesting to see what the division of votes is in the Punjab Assembly elections where the voter does not see himself as Punjabi but as a Rajput, Arain or Jat. I will be very surprised if the voting pattern is in the least bit different from India's.
The MQM, the ANP and the JUI are also all regional identity parties. The Karachi vote of the ANP is the Pashtun vote. The PPP is the only national party in that sense. It resembles the Congress in that it is a dynastic party of martyrs — with an agenda that is pro-poor and non-militaristic. This makes the PPP reach out of Sindh and towards the north into the Seraiki area, culturally like Sindh, but not the Punjabi heartland.
The MQM, ANP, the Baloch leaders, the JUI and the party whose current version is PML-Q are oppportunists who align with those in power. They resemble the regional parties in India like those run by Jayalalitha Jayaram, Muthuvel Karunanidhi and Mamata Banerjee who will join any government for ministries. Imran can depend on their support if the PTI manages to eclipse the PML-N and the PPP. That's all he needs to do instead of winning the majority on his own. Can he do this?
A recent Pew opinion poll showed that Imran Khan was popular with over 70 per cent of Pakistanis, while Asif Zardari was preferred by only 14 per cent. Indians have long been familiar with the utter meaninglessness of opinion polls. There is zero chance that those polled will vote in this fashion. The Punjabi will vote for another Punjabi and if faced with two Punjabi candidates will then vote for his caste.
Imran's popularity on the basis of issues like corruption, Nato supply lines and drone attacks will not result in votes. Corruption is not an issue in India, except in the media, and I suspect the same conditions obtain in Pakistan. His best option is to lure established community leaders like he has done with Shah Mahmood Qureishi and Javed Hashmi. It is likely, given the ease with which the Sharifs let him go, that Hashmi is electorally unimportant. Only turncoats with votebanks will bring victory to Imran in a free election. Not loyal party workers, media favourites and certainly not issues.
That is, assuming Pakistanis are like Indians and will vote like Indians.
It will be fascinating if Imran Khan can prove this to be untrue.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 8th, 2012.
COMMENTS (41)
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What Aakar Patel does not say is that in a constituency, the different parties put up candidates of the same caste. So while the choice of candidate for an area is based on caste, the choice between candidates does to some extent become a choice of party.
Not only the author has a rather overly simplistic view of electoral politics of Pakistan and India too (based on majority comments here), he also needs to do some fact checking.
Calling PML a "Punjabi Party" that has never won majority outside Punjab shows that. PML had a landslide in 97 elections in all provinces. And in 08, they never had any chance/time for campaigning. Sharif went in for the elections on a few weeks notice (APDM saga).
And wow! Javed Hashmi is electorally unimportant? Seriously? I'd have given you benefit of doubt, but there is only one Javed Hashmi on Pakistan's political scene.
Another point to consider is that a lot has changed in past five years. Access to blabbering private news channels has increased many folds. It would not be an over statement to say that the youth of Pakistan will have its first modern and real elections next year. Social media has shaken up old dimensions.
While rural areas to a great extent will still base their vote on caste/biradari, it is hoped that urban dwellers will play a vital role this time. And electronic/social media will definitely play its role.
Just my two cents.
@Ashutosh: . I'm lost - apologies my limited googling. Anyways, isn't this sounds "because Techies are out of (any) cast, both measurably failed" .
@Reader: I did not get your question friend. I agree that caste is an issue, a vote bank may influence few. However, I am against sweeping generalization. . By and large voters are mature and refrain from electing Representatives who fail to perform. No one can take them for granted. It reminds me of the late BJP leader Mr. Pramod Mahajan with his laptop and beaming in confidence in the 2004 lok sabh poll and heard of a US based techie who accompanied Rahul Gandhi in this recent UP election, both measurably failed.
@Ashutosh: ThanQ. thats what the author extracts:
".....No caste is more than a fifth of the population and so alliances are necessary. The Congress is India’s only ecumenical party. It is genuinely above region, caste and religion. But even Congress is forced to pick candidates on the basis of caste because Indians stubbornly vote for their own rather than on issues....."
how abt be liberal towards votebank rather strict... ?
@Reader: Is a vote bank enough to win an election? . In that case just strict to votebank and keep winning election after election ...Simple !
@Ashutosh: What do you think - 'Votebank politics' terminology limited to VHP only ?
Not sure about Pakistan, but the author's analysis of voting pattern of Indians is rather simplistic.There are too many variables and the type of variables again differ from state to state.That is about state assembly elections.When it comes to election for the Parliament it is another ball game.
nice writing on common psyche of voters but the author missed one most important factor i.e the role of military in Pakistan election. Indians have not experienced this till now.
Voters in both countries are shortchanged by their political representatives. We are at peak oil What is their political representatives' solution? It seems to me the political parties are plagued by the party machine syndrome which is a recipe for poor governance. Talented representatives are not allowed to succeed. Only those meeting approval of short sighted leaders are allowed to rise.
@rangacharya kulkarni: "Many states in India like Orissa, West Bengal ( whole of Estaern states) donot vote on caste basis. This is sweeping generalisation. India does not mean UP, Bihar, or Southern states"..
Don't you think you are making the same generalization? DMK in TN was routed by AIADMK (headed by a Brahmin who constitute 2% of state's population)..The main issue was widespread corruption and ofcourse the all conquering 2G scandal..Even AIADMK was voted out of power in 1996 due to corruption of Jayalalitha.
So you need to do some research before making sweeping statements just like this author..Each state in India is unique in its own aspect..Even Bihar, UP voted out corrupt governments in a stern message to the politicians..
@antanu g: As a Pakistani, read Indian history better before commenting on the maturity of the Indian voters..Read how Nitish, Narendra modi got reelected on the basis of good governance..read how DMK routed in TN elections on the basis of corruption..
It is good to see akaar patel is trying to put castist division in pakistan. also happy to see that he thinks corruption is not an issue in india (if that was the case Rajiv Gandhi would never have lost the election in 1989) Anyway the latest news from India is that congress as lost all local body elections in UP and corruption is main reason for this.
The article is a good effort work for students of political Science. Practically the results are coming in next few months anyway to compoare the dindings opinion polls. In 1971 elections of Pakistan, the Bengalis, Siddhis and Punjabis voted for slogans matching people’s aspirations. Whereas the Baluchis and Pashtuns gave split verdict which was mix of religion and region based politics. Watching the mood of Pakistani in the street the history of 71 elections may be repeated. We sincerely hope the fate of the nation will not be same as was of 1971. A Peshawary .
@unbeliever: Read todays political story in Karnataka.There is your evidence.A ruling CM is ousted because the opponent belongs to a dominant caste.BJP wants to keep this scoundrel in the party for the next election.They think that voters will not care that Yeddy is indicted for corruption.
@antanu g: In response to your comment to Ashutosh, the 1971 elections (garibi hatao) were held in March 1971. Operation Searchlight was still underway at that time, and the war was fought only in December. Pls read up on Indian history before commenting.
@Hella : excellent point. The author would be well advised to explain this.
However, in the light of, "Congress is India’s only ecumenical party. It is genuinely above region, caste and religion. But even Congress is forced to pick candidates on the basis of caste because Indians stubbornly vote for their own rather than on issues." , it would be naive to expect author to respond.
I believe the author is saying that Congress is an excellent party but has to put up with a foolish nation which is bent on exercising its franchise on the basis of caste. We are sorry Congress , apologies that you have to put up with likes of us.
@Ch. Allah Daad: IK offer i not short term but long term- an opportunity to change Pakistan. Lets say current set of adults are unchangeable and will vote along identity lines. But what about young adults who are very aware of truth because of internet and are concerned about their nation and survivability. They are likely to vote for issues. That is why IK keeps talking about 30 crore (did I hear him right on some you tube ?) new young voters.
This author has a knack for describing everything in a negative light. This analysis is very superficial. Caste politics is there, but politicians and governments are periodically thrown out if they fail to perform.
Not surprisingly these are the types of Indian authors who get to write in Pakistani newspapers. "India is not that as it is touted" line.
aakar you lost it this time buddy. completely wrong with your over-simplification. rajputs in rajasthan are about 11%, so there is no way bjp wins only because of them. and up has the highest percentage of brahmins in the country. the upper caste vote is higher in up than most states. punjab has the highest scheduled caste population of any state, but no chance for mayawati there. and then your state, gujarat; bjp wins for reasons other than patels. you know better. lastly, the lingayat is a sect, not a caste. and one of the readers was right, there is no role of caste in politics in a number of states. and education has nothing to do with that. worth thinkins. cheers ms
@antanu g: "@Ashutosh: Indiraji won election on popularity created a victory in 1971 war. Ghraib hatao had nothing to do. it was a shield for her."
You need to revisit history not rewrite it. The elections were held in March 1971. The war was won in December 1971. The war was NOT a factor in the election . It IS the garibi hatao slogan as well as her populiast decisions such as bank nationalisation, stopping priviy purses of princes etc. which led to her victory.
@Hella: amazing how you deny the truth. Hindi heartland sends highest numbers of mps to pariliament and crucial for govt formation and this region's politics is 100%w caste/religion based. don't deny the fact.Indian democracy is mature but not the voters. a few states do not represent entire India.
This is gross oversimplification by the author. Let him kindly explain these points then;
The Congress in Nehru and Indira Gandhi years and all the elections these leaders won. The entire political history of states like West Bengal, Kerala, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Delhi, etc. The many landslide victories and defeats of almost all parties across the Indian political spectrum and even in the states that the author mentions.Yes caste and caste equations matter, denying that would be a lie. But caste in simply one among many reasons. Ideology, personality and stature of the leader, development and governance record, religious identity, popular and prevailing trends, money power, etc, have also played a major part in almost all Indian elections, be it center or state.
@Ashutosh: Indiraji won election on popularity created a victory in 1971 war. Ghraib hatao had nothing to do. it was a shield for her.
Author says "The Congress is India’s only ecumenical party. It is genuinely above region, caste and religion.". The fact is that, out of 65 years of independence, Congress has ruled at the Centre for about 50 years. Similarly it has ruled many of the states, for a longer period then other parties. So, for a far greater part of the period since Independence, Indians voted for a party which in the author's own words is/was genuinely above region, caste and religion. Still the author claims that Indians vote on the basis of caste. Couldn't figure that one. Possibly the author can explain.
"India’s democracy functions because of caste"
Not really sir! Many states in India like Orissa, West Bengal ( whole of Estaern states) donot vote on caste basis. This is sweeping generalisation. India does not mean UP, Bihar, or Southern states. This is really making mockery of democracy in India.
I agree with @ what is the name The author has not analyzed why incumbent parties get voted out of power The growing middle class is issue oriented.
Dear Mr. Patel, You seems to be expert and tell foretell whom to give ticket so that he/ or the party can win .. most seats if not all ... Then why these political parties in India not pouncing over you and honor you as their "Raj Purohit"? . Let me list out some elections which probably had some issues other than castes: 1. Indira Gandhi won the 1971 election of "Garibi Hatao" slogan. Though sounded simple but probably most Indians felt that all their miseries will come to end if poverty can be eliminated. 2. Indira Gandhi became unpopular after imposing emergency in India and that resulted in Congress Party loose election in 1977. 3. The issue was corruption (basically Bofors Gun) because of which Rajeev Gandhi lost election in 1989. 4. BJP won the 1998 election on the issue of Ram Mandir.
Also you said in your article above, that the Congress is India’s only ecumenical party and that is the party which won most of the elections after independence (and before too). . Dose that not say that things are not as simple as you make it sound ...
I agree with author .... this defective system of voting is much persistent in Balochistan than any other province of Pakistan .... NO body can dare to ask his representative about any development program .... as far as my opinion is concerned this system will never change ....
congress party is genuinely above caste and religion,mr.aakar patel u lost me there..
Excellent analysis. My family has been very active in local politics in one of the very important constituency. The important in the sense that it (constituency) has elected one prime minister and few other national leaders who prefered our constituency because their own home constituencies were not considered safe. With this experience, I can confirm that nothing much has changed since last election, except that sitting member of ruling party will lose and opposition party's candidate will win., who was defeated last time with the margin of few hundred votes. Imran's candidate (if he found anyone) has no chance at all because serious candidates start serving peope and manupilating situation long time before elections, whereas Imran's canditate as not yet started. Its the same situation in every consitituency of our district. I am still wondering what package Imran's candidate would bring to defeat candidates who have already got pledges from their 'Baradaris' and have paid handsome amounts on Koran to other unreliable voters.
you are right up until five years ago. the problem is that for the last decade the independent news channels have changed a lot of things at least in the cities of Pakistan. considering the fact that majority of the voters in the coming election are going to be youngsters who are not concerned with castes or ethnicity that gives an opportunity to imran khan i still dont think he will get majority of the seats in the national assembly but i think he will get enough seats to make an impact.
The Indian states selected to demonstrate the effect of caste are in no way representative of the entire population. For example, both of the 'opportunistic states' indicated - TN and Bengal do not vote on caste lines; nor does Kerala. In AP, the popularity of the YSR Congress (assumed to be front runners) is based on YSR's son Jagan who is a Christian; and the Reddys do not vote as a bloc. Similarly Maharashtra and Punjab also do not vote strictly on caste lines. The only states where this is a factor are in the BIMARU states, and in the South, Karnataka. It is ridiculous to assume that Narendra Modi wins elections just because he gets his numbers right; in the past, he has been getting votes from all communities including muslims. However, the tragedy is that the Gangetic plain continues to hold the key to 7 Race Course Road, and caste is still an all-important factor there. On a separate note, I strongly disagree with your line which says, "Congress is above region, caste and religion". This is a party that constantly seeks to corner the muslim voter by posing as their only protector while actually doing nothing to integrate this community into the mainstream in the last 65 years. It accuses the BJP of being communal while being in alliance with the Indian Union Muslim League in Kerala - pray, where is the difference? Ironically, the Congress needs the BJP to survive; if it were only pitted against regional parties, it would have become irrelevant long back. Hopefully there is still time.
I totally disagree with the author as far as the voters are concerned, that too applying some instances to all states.. but, it is partly true as far the ruling administration is concerned in some states....
exellent article i ever witniced thanks a lot sir we are still living in 15th century A,D.....