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The PTI’s rude awakening
It can be, in reality, a force far greater than a thousand tsunamis that erodes the decadence of Pakistani politics.
The writer is an adjunct scholar with the Middle East Institute and president of Vizier Consulting, LLC. He tweets at @pakistanpolicy
With the departure of Ahmed Shuja Pasha as the ISI chief, the momentum behind the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf’s (PTI) tsunami has slowed, so it seems. Many who were shocked by the PTI jalsa in Lahore last October have resumed their mocking of the party and its boisterous, idealistic supporters.
Some of the derision aimed at the PTI is warranted. Imran Khan has been prone, as of late, to making promises he will not be able to deliver on. For example, he said if the PTI comes to power, it will end corruption in 19 days and terrorism in 90. But corruption is deeply embedded in Pakistan’s political soul. It is not a demon that can be exorcised with a prayer. The same goes for terrorism, which will haunt Pakistan even after the last American soldier leaves Afghanistan.
Khan’s gargantuan guarantees play to the politically puerile among his support base, which — it must be said — consists mainly of decent people wanting a better Pakistan, though its unofficial social media face is replete with crude bullies.
It is easy to dismiss the PTI as a hodgepodge of burger babies and their Khan-struck mamas, beardless Taliban, ex-Jamaatis, and political orphans brought together by the former amir of Aabpara and the ease of association enabled by the click of a Facebook or Twitter button.
But the PTI is no fluke. Those who count it out might be in for a rude shock when the next general elections take place. Most analysis of the PTI fails to take into account the party’s prospects in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) and Fata. In K-P, the PTI has a strong, physical presence — meaning selected candidates and party offices — in Peshawar, Mardan, Swat and other districts. The PTI is also leveraging the extension of the Political Parties Act to Fata — home to seven National Assembly seats — for example, by campaigning in South Waziristan of all places. In both K-P and Fata, the PTI is taking advantage of the void left by an Awami National Party, dually bitten by its poor performance and a brutal terrorist campaign against its leadership.
What’s almost certain is that the next parliament will be hung. What’s highly probable is that the PPP and the PML-N will place in the top two. And what’s definitely possible is that the PTI will be a distant third.
So it’s not only the PTI detractors who will be in for a rude awakening. Party supporters who have been fed the fantasy of a PTI ‘clean sweep’ will be disappointed, if not devastated. But by coming in third, the PTI not only has a chance to decide who leads the next coalition government, but it also has an opportunity to improve the way Pakistani legislative politics operates.
In such a scenario, the PTI has three options: join the federal cabinet or the opposition, or remain non-aligned and oppose both the government and the official opposition. If the PTI joins a PPP or a PML-N-led government, it can follow the example of Britain’s Liberal Democrats, who generated a concrete policy programme with the Conservative Party as part of its agreeing to form a government together. Among the items on the PTI’s list should be: tackling corruption through a depoliticised body, reforming the judicial and police system from the bottom-up, increasing tax revenue, producing a jobs growth strategy for the youth and radically reducing poverty.
If the PTI joins the opposition in concert with one of the two parties, or operates in its own space, it can create a shadow cabinet and offer constructive alternatives to the ruling coalition’s policies. Indeed, the PTI can show that the opposition need not be friend or foe, but fiercely productive.
For the PTI to do all this, requires mastering the art of compromise and modifying its vocabulary. Parliamentary politics is a game the PTI, as a collective, has little experience in. For all its shortcomings, the PPP has managed to push through three parliamentary amendments and maintain an unwieldy coalition. There are lessons to be learned from the PPP’s successes.
The PTI also needs to prepare its supporters for a soft landing. The tsunami will most likely just be a really strong storm. But it can be an enduring, democratic current that erodes the decadence of Pakistani politics over time — in reality, a force far greater than a thousand tsunamis.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 28th, 2012.
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Reader Comments (70)
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PTI Is, Was, And will be a one man party. That one man is the bonapartist dictator Mr Imran Khan. The party will also collapse with the fall of khan. This is because the supporters of khan are addicted to Messiah Worshipping who expect things to change in 9 blah blah days when khan comes to power. They will be the most disappointed supporters when they see the real world.
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Look at all opinion polls and the public rallies, they are huge. Just because the media isn’t giving as much coverage does not mean the tsunami is slowing down. This article attempts to give a ‘realistic’ analysis but doesn’t even know ground realities. The writer is the one who will be in for a surprise next election.
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well written and mostly depicts the reality but someone needs to put in Tsunami Khans Brain too. He is deluding himself and youth too. Imran should be prepared for shock rather than PMLN because PMLN is already in alliance mode realizing the scenario.
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Let the people of Pakistan decide, your vote is 1 out of 180,000,000 votes. The rest of us can vote for PTI
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Tsunami is going to sink PTI itself?
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“For the PTI to do all this, requires mastering the art of compromise and modifying its vocabulary.”
You expect The Taliban Khan to do that? Best of Luck.
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LOL Just read the first line, PTI has gone slow with the departure of Shuja Pasha.. Haha sorry to say but kya ap ka ghar cable nahi ati? or you really don’t watch news
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PEW polls in collaboration with ISI published its latest survey today showing Imran khan the hot favorite by a margin of 70% which means that almost 7 out of every 10 supports PTI. Not to forget during Shuja Pasha tenure PTI was rapidly escalating but post Shuja Pasha, has been on top… Burger Inqilab? No, Noora League?
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In KP Peshawer, Swat, Mardan, Swabi, Hazara , will be with PTI no matter what u say sir.
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Every knowledgeably person knows that the vote has never translated into a democratic dispensation and by your meekly accepting this as a fait accompli, is not only wrong but appears deliberate. Change does not just come, it is brought in by determined people.
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“For the PTI to do all this, requires mastering the art of compromise and modifying its vocabulary.”
And they will never improve their Vocabulary!!
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Yea.. Look at the public opinion poll of PEW today… IK is still the most popular with 70% approval rating and even this is after the departure of General Pasha.. :)
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“It is easy to dismiss the PTI as a hodgepodge of burger babies and their Khan-struck mamas, beardless Taliban, ex-Jamaatis, and political orphans brought together by the former amir of Aabpara and the ease of association enabled by the click of a Facebook or Twitter button.” I like this decription and find it most appropriate. However, the best is this one, ” PTI as a hodgepodge of burger babies and their Khan-struck mamas, beardless Taliban” —– some combination, wopuld be even better if the Talibans were orginal as they would make better match with these “mamas” and their babies as well.
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@ writer
Seems you haven’t seen the Jalsas in Sialkot, Pindi, hydrabad etc etc those all were after Shuja Pasha…i was present in atleast one in Sialkot and it was the biggest ever political gathering in this city and i dont see why peoople will not vote if they are risking there lives to attend jalsa’s
This article only shows continues Bias of ET and Its writers toward PTI….Why cant we simply understand that people are fed up with PMLN and PPP and only that factor is good enough if you just ignore IK’s leadership and charisma aside for people to Vote for Change.
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Why is this guy even allowed write an op-ed? Standards are falling tribune.
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FATA has 12 and not 7 NA seats.PTI is not likely to win any seat from FATA.Do not go on media reports,FATA election is a complicated process, known to only those who have actually participated in elections.
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This is the golden opportunity with the people of pakistan to bring in PTI to power.PMLN and PPP have done great harm to the country and their leadership increased personal wealth and interests.Punjab government is the biggest defaulter of wapda and Nwaz sharif mills are also defaulter of wapda.If imran khan comes to power, he will definitely bring about some positive change.These hypocrites need to go home otherwise we will cry again and nobody will listen
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Arif – what is common between the rag tag mixed bag of PTI supporters?
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Answer . . . they want a government that is going to be sincere to the people. One that is going to work for the betterment of Pakistan.
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Who are you going to vote for?
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I hope not the same old tired bunch of con-artists.
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PTI is the only hope . . . the rest is money for old rope.
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I don’t think that PTI will be a distant third. Time will tell but the momentum that is building up under the surface if unleashed under true and fair elections might also bring about surprises in Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan. Lastly, your bit on compromise; if compromises and reconciliation could really solve Pakistan’s problems, then the last 4 years were the best opportunity when almost all of the political parties were in Govt. Reality be told that it is not the compromises but the sincerity and political willingness to push through tough decisions that our nation so badly needs.
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This is a very pragmatic and balanced Op Ed. It provides good advice to PTI and IK. However, they seem to be too arrogant and perfect and need no improvement. I would be willing to put in writing almost the same results with a slight suggestion. PTI and IK have always been overrated and have won much less seats than predicted. Be that as it may, PTI would be in a position to be included in the next govt instead of PML-N, who would emerge a much smaller party. The next govt would again be a coalition but PTI would be with PPP instead of PML, which would remain in a perpetual role of opposition.
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rubbish analysis
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@ author i salute u, wat a suggestion to pti, learn from ppp about compromise, r u serious
@ all those eho are saying pti one face party than what will they call pml n and ppp, family based parties i guess…..
I cant even understand y r we ppl so afrsid of trying someone new, after being repeatedly bashed by ppp and pml n. in nxt election if we dun break away from these two sister parties, we wont b able to blame any1 bt ourselves
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emphasized text“What’s almost certain is that the next parliament will be hung. What’s highly probable is that the PPP and the PML-N will place in the top two. And what’s definitely possible is that the PTI will be a distant third”.
Mr Writer: please share your source which makes you ‘almost certain’?
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PTI lost momentum after Oct 30 jalsa? Were you in a cave when huge rallies in southern punjab, sialkot, mianwali and recently in hyderabad took place?
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poor artcle and sick thinkung ….. u cant kill our hope by suchRecommend
Your article best portrays you’ve not been watching PTI’s jalsa’s and rallies to post-departure of Pasha neither do you listen to what IK and his party says specifically about the removal of “major” corruption in 9 days… typical queries, answered a thousand times..
All it is there is vocabulary..!!!
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well kids like change, 5 rupees or 10 rupees that’s the only change IK will give them.
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Poorly written, self serving and bias piece. Shabby way to market your name and increase your readership. Let’s face it how many people would have otherwise read your article if you had not written in favour or against Imran Khan or PTI. Recommend
i think this guy is newly launched from opponents….
we will vote PTIRecommend
@Anas Abbas: Fine, GO vote for Zardari, to me he seems like your true leader
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PTI is going to form the provincial government in KP and possibly if it plays its cards right in Punjab. PMLQ will be history, PTI and PMLN will eat up their votes. The one who eats the most will form the government in Punjab. Sind will be the same mess it is, with PPP and MQM. Center will be a coalition of the unwilling. The power in the center will continue to diminish.
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@ Anus Abbas: So what you reckon we should do? Vote for Zardari, Sharifs again as they now they real world? So thoughtful. Your existence is as disappointing as your real world leaders!
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Pakistanis are yet to learn about parliamentary democracy. It is not like USA where the most popular man wins. The government is decided by the members of the parliament. To form a govt. he should have at least 130 members. That means he should have 130 winning candidates. Does he have them? Which means he has to contest at least 240 seats. does he have so many persons? Further he need to have an organisation to get them elected. An organisation means dedicated workers. Does he have them? Do people recognize his election symbol to vote for him?
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Imran’s only mission is to spoil PML(N)’s chances and he is doing just great in this regard.
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@ Anus Abbas: So what you reckon we should do? Vote for Zardari, Sharifs again as they know the real world? So thoughtful. Your existence is as disappointing as your real world leaders’!
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Well balanced ground realities put forward to PTI, but will they listen, these nice people’s had been sold dreams and promise of paradise which the leader knows not possible to provide.
And he is already covering his lies by saying now that if does not win there must be cheating against him.
See escape route had already been made and those try to wake then are already countered now. Politic but negative and end will be huge disappointment to those nice people how really are honest good wisher of Pakistan and want change for betterment. I wish they avoid next Ppp governament nd be smart now to judge the out come of next possible election.
PML N is the only true way out of this misery in which Ppp put us. God help us all
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I think the one person who will be shocked is teh writer. and as for you CH. Allahdad the writing is on the wall.
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All I know is that, this time I will drive 100s of miles to vote for the first time. This vote will go to PTI, No one else deserves my vote.
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This is totally biased analysis.
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Totally biased analysis.
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Show of hands everybody…..how many of you are eagerly looking forward to a period of peace and prosperity under the brilliant and pragmatic rule of the PMLN or PPP for the next 5 years?!?!? If anyone here is even thinking of raising their hand…put aside your vested interest for a minute and go get your head checked….Recommend
the Recommend counts in the comments, speak themselves of the enormity of popularity IK and PTI..
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I am really struggling with the mindset or thoughts people got here, from top to bottom.
Arif, what you are mentioning is the same issue which is recognizable quite easily in every person’s mind of pakistani. I am not part or supporting PTI, but is it BRITAIN LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC and CONSERVATIVE Parties doing same politics like PML-N and PPP are doing? Full of corruption and Arrogant Unjust ruling? What G.Pasha did from ISI part is for pakistan favor what PTI doing is for same reason.
Secondly, what you are saying it must’ve be collation etc, is what we have learning from last 65 years this is NOT ONLY POLITICS. I don’t want to blame you for anything about this Article, just be fair with yor country and this nation.
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Poor analysis based on wrong facts!
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Well, in the comments section i have read several comments explicitly stating thay they would vote for PTI in the general elections.However no one has ‘dared’ to say they he/she will vote for A/Q/N League or PPP etc. Come on PML and PPP supporters (including author) don’t be afraid to show your support for you ‘true leaders’.
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Sick of reading these anti-PTI articles. ET why don’t you just have an anti-PTI week and get all these bashing opinions out of the way. And dear author of this fantastic piece, was this profile picture of yours taken before or after October 30th, you seem to have been AWAKENED!
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now wait for that anchor to call the writer in her program.. :-) By The Way, I don’t tend to agree with the writer.. lets leave it on the time.. what i belive is that after the elections are announced many people from PPP and PML (N) will leave to join PTI as our political custom and hence the result would be a clean sweep by PTI…. IMO that’s why IK said that people will see the Tsunami power three months prior to elections . kaptaan must have a plan B.. he is also not a kid that he doesn’t know the, somewhat bafelling, reality as explained by the writer.. also i dont agree with the writer regarding his assumption of the aftermath of elections.. in my opinion Khan will come on streets if he doesn’t clean sweep.. :P
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Biased from the very first line of the article… ET is disappointing readers now!
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Even if PTI emerges as opposition or considerable part of parliament…..it’s ok with must of PTI supportersRecommend
Many PTI/Khan supporters are given to Messiah worshipping. But most Pakistanis are now disappointed with so many saviors and knights and self-appointed Messiahs, having seen them all (Khan included, BTW).
How will Mr Khan form a government in any province without getting votes from the people? Has Khan “SEALED THE DEAL” with the voters in Punjab, Sindh, KPK, Fata, Baluchistan, GB, AJK? The answer is NOOOOO.
Mr Khan has lived in Punjab his whole life but has no stance on discriminatory loadshedding targeting Punjab only to destroy the Punjab economy and he expects Punjabis to vote for them?
Why should any Punjabi vote for Mr Khan if he does not care about them?
Same question can also be asked by voters from other provinces.Recommend
I think the writer is totaly biased. The languag he used about PTI is below the belt. He humiliated the people of pakistan. In some comments people are saying PTI suporters should imporve their vocab. First of all they should see what kind of language writer has used. Recommend
you know the writer has hit the spot when all the PTI trolls jump on it. :)
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I would have said; Bravo Writer, but I don’t say. Guys like you; the realist and the pessimistic and the optimist are always in rush of ground realities. They adjust themselves to ground realities. But Insaf Tigers say no to adjustment, it is us who make up the ground realities not the ground realities make us. Just understand this one sentence if you want to understand the whole threshold of PTI Tigers and Tsumani Leaders.
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These days every “intellectual” has a ‘to do’ list for PTI but when it comes to supporting/analysing they ignore all the surveys, the ignore all the ralies/jalsas, they ignore the devastation caused by the PPP/PMLN/ANP/MQM/JUI colaition in Pakistan and they just like to allege that PTI is supported by Pasha ( did he sponsor Pindi/Hyderabad, Quetta Jalsas as well)???????.
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I am a ardent PTI supporter but I think all in all it is a reasonable analysis. Bottom line is PTI is a force for good that will have god impact on country’s politics.
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IK with his magic wand! His magic wand will turn PK into South Korea and that also in 15 days! In 21 days all the infrastructure will resemble again like that of South Korea. In 30 days the literacy rate will reach 100%. Long live IK!
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Cannot begin contemplate how these ‘scholars’ can even think they can get away with putting forward a half wit attempt to defame PTI. This article is laughable and its an insult to common sense to think you can call this an ‘argument’ in any respect. Arif Rafiq’s ignorance of how the PTI has been blacked out from the mainstream media and instead claiming the ‘momentum has slowed’. Its funny, I could argue the contrary. And polls seem to depict he’s at the front of the race as well.
Also people are claiming Imran is a ‘messiah’ and is being ‘worshipped’, take out any leader in the world who has actually bought change to society for the good, went through the same process of being idolized. Its in our nature as Pakistanis to idolize things and individuals, better Khan than Sharif’s or Bhutto’s. Atleast Khan is downright genuine.
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All the surveys suggest that PTI is a number one party. Either these liberal secular-bugged leftist are true or the surveys .PML (N) stance is evasive, and at heart they are fearful. I guess the coming elections will certainly have ‘rude awakening’ for the self-styled analysts.
If someone has the gadgets called TV and Computer then he should watch the Rawalpindi Jalsa which came by after Shuja Pasha Retired. It was a huge gathering. The UK newspapers wrote stories on it. Next, only time will tell if Imran Khan is Taliban or the cowardly Sharifs and Zardari who speak one thing to US and another to the public.
The liberal so-called left (elite who have sucked-in the country) will never vote for Imran Khan because want to be as ‘enlightened’ as Mushraff claimed to be the one. Recommend
A well-paid article! Your conclusions are too far-fetched and puerile to be even believed by a naive in politics.
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Typical kind of analysis I used to read some 8-10 months ago. An easy way establishing yourself as a writer is to write on PTI, coz the hot cake will sell itself.
Further the opinion is absolutely OBSOLETE in the current scenarios,if the writer is aware of those, although the writings depict the otherwise.
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Gandhi ji had said”First they ignore you,then they laugh at you,then they fight you,then you win”.these drawing room intellectuals who have no idea of the misery of the people of pakistan are going to have the shock of their life after the next general elections.no wonder they are fighting PTI with such venom and desperation…..GOD BLESS THE LAND OF PURE
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Gandhi ji had said,”First they ignore you,then they laugh at you,then they fight you,then you win.”They are fighting PTI now,and the venom with which they are engaged in this negative yet very carefully designed propaganda will tell you about their desperation……victory is inevitable for us;the only thing we need is PERSEVERANCE…LET THEM DO WHAT THEY DO BEST,AND LET US KEEP MOVING FORWARD WITH DEDICATION AND PERSEVERANCE.GOD BLESS THE LAND OF PURE.
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Rubbish Analysis Janab, If PTI lacks the experience as said “Parliamentary politics is a game the PTI, as a collective, has little experience in”.
Whats your profile my boy….. grow up…
and I bet all who said PTI will sink…
In this Pakistan, visionless PML-N is still on go.. i bet PTI will keep going up n better… I bet and my promise.. will never let the Green Flag down…
Get a life burger writer.. :)
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@abc: you need to wake up then.. IK waled and led a protest rally against load-shedding and walked 5 KM … was he demanding Electricity for Sindh while protesting in Faisalabad. Wake Up Sir jee :)
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One who think Talibans are your friends better not be your friend since if you have friends like these you definately do not need any enemies!
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@ PTI Supporters :- Ghalib movie daikhi hai? :-P :-D
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though i am a staunch pti supporter and regardless of the number of articles against khan i am still gonna vote for him.. ok! for a moment lets delve into some argument. for instance i consider your advice that pti is a dirty option and bla bla whatever you said, then i see that the two parties which are tried again and again are then the dirtiest options ever, the person like you will never advice to vote for them. now which fourth party should i be voting for? plz mention the name as we are so illiterate that we have to take advice from you.Recommend
nice way you illiterates have found of publicity by criticising pti.. this shows its power. pti rules
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I would call it a rational and balanced article which did not rely on the signature PTI thrashing style to gain readership ratings. So let’s be honest to ourselves guys. Our political landscape is pested with poly-ticking mafias in the shape of Khans, Maliks, Chaudharys, Vaderas, and they will stop at nothing to hold on to the corrupted but shaky monoliths of the power alliance between PPP and PML-N. But change is here and it is for everyone but a few to see, feel and know. It’s about time to transform our social media passion into something that matters in the end, going to the polling stations and casting our votes. That should be our response to the so-called realists who have nothing much to do lately but to write-off PTI.
Isaac Asimov was once famously quoted as saying, “The only constant is change, continuing change, inevitable change, that is the dominant factor in society today”.
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Oh….dear…..another anti IK in denial! Initially, I used to feel slightly low after reading such articles. Not now…..as a supporter of IK/PTI, I believe all PTI supporters should look forward to the change and realise that such article are not ‘bad’. There is no such thing as ‘bad’ publicity in politics. All pro status-quo are in the middle of an ocean drowning and are trying to swim/survive with a punctured life jacket!!
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